Issue #39
September 30, 2007
 The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation 


More of the same this past week = No Direction!

DOW Friday close at 13895

The DOW was unable to generate enough follow through buying this past week to make a new weekly closing high and settled 12 points below the all time weekly high. It is evident that even though the interest rate cut two weeks ago was viewed as a positive, the worry about inflation and further deterioration of the housing market has brought strong selling at these important levels, thus stalling the recent up-trend.

It is possible that intra-week rallies to test the 14021 all-time high will be seen this coming week if no negative news comes out but it is now seems evident that new all-time highs will be tough to make without positive news.

The 13658 level, on a closing basis, continues to be a major pivot point on the downside. Should the DOW at any time close below that level, the recent rally, based on the interest rate cut, will be wiped out and the marketplace will once again shift to a sideways to downtrend mode.

Nonetheless the chart is looking strong at this time and the recent mini upside flag formation breakout continues to be in effect and projects a rally up to the 14200. Closes below 13858 will negate that flag formation and put pressure on the index.

Under 13658 support will be found at 13475-13500 and then again major at 13250. Resistance will be the daily closing high at 14000. The 13907 weekly closing level will not be of consequence intra-week and should not pose too much of a problem if the indexes maintain their strength.

It is my belief that with the DOW stalling and finding strong resistance at these levels some type of new catalyst needs to be introduced to generate a new high. Time is not on the side of continued strength and without a catalyst it is likely the DOW will give up its recent gains.

NASDAQ Friday Close at 2701

As with the DOW the NASDAQ also failed to make a new weekly closing high closing 6 ticks below the previous 7 year-closing high of 2707. Both of these charts seems to be now in unison as the NASDAQ is also showing a flag formation in place that offers an objective of 2760. Closes below 2671 will negate the flag formation and place pressure on the index.

The NASDAQ does not have a clearly defined breakdown area like the DOW's 13658-13691 but it can be said the 2632 level is now strong support (20-day MA and 2 previous highs and 1 previous low). A break of that level would put strong pressure on the index and could generate a drop down to the 2532 level.

On the upside the 7-year intra-day high at 2725 and the daily closing high at 2720 will act as strong resistance. The possible trading range without definition (2671-2725) is shrinking and its likely this coming week some catalyst will be seen that will generate a move above or below either of those two levels.

As with the DOW the NASDAQ chart is now committed to making a new highs and if failure occurs would be taken quite negatively.

S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1526

The SPX for the last year has been the chart favorite in as much as it has been the most indicative on both the upside and the downside. It is therefore important to note that the SPX does not have the same positive look that the other two indexes have.

The SPX has not yet been able to breakout of its flag formation as the DOW and the NASDAQ have already done. In addition the 1540 level is a major resistance level and it was not even tested all last week. In addition the SPX was only able to close 1 point higher than last week's close and the 1532 level of daily closing resistance is proving to be difficult to break.

The major pivot point for the SPX is the 1504 level. Should that level break pressure will increase strongly. Major support is 1492 and should that level break it will signal that this recent up-trend is over.

On the upside the 1532 level on a daily closing basis has proven to be decent resistance, the 1540 level is major resistance (both intra-day and on a closing basis), and 1555 intra-day high has been the all-time high. A break above 1540 would project a rally up to the 1570 level.

The SPX has not shown the same strength that the other two indexes have shown and since this is the index that has been the leader of the charts during the last year it can be said this is the index to follow. In this case the chart parameters are extremely clear and the 1540-1504 level seem to be the levels to keep an eye out for.

My own personal opinion is that the indexes will not be able to do much to the upside. Whether they make new highs or not is not clear at this time but even if they make new highs I do not believe there will be much follow through.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation 
 
CHART Outlooks

The mentions this week are based on my own personal belief that the indexes will go down very soon, even if they are able to make new highs. Nonetheless the chart picture is quite muddled and sensitive to news, therefore entry points into short positions need to be monitored quite closely.

All my mentions this week are in stocks that are in overbought conditions and who have close-by resistance levels of consequence. If the indexes are rallying on Monday then wait to get involved in the short positions when at the most advantageous price is seen. In addition, take this week's mentions with a "grain of salt" as things are not clear, fundamentally speaking, in the marketplace.

SNDA (Friday Close at 37.18)

For those of you that may be looking for an aggressive trade with a fast short-term profit potential SNDA is the stock to look at. Last Wednesday's rally up to 39.08 reached an area of major resistance on the weekly charts going back to June 2005. After reaching that area SNDA seemed to hit a brick wall and dropped almost $2 over the next 2 trading days. A rally to re-test the resistance area is likely as the stock has been on a very strong up-trend over the past month and is not likely to turn around without at least a re-test of the highs.

It is highly likely as well that SNDA will correct back down to at least the 32.98 level at this time and it is also likely that SNDA will get into a range between $30 and $40 for the next few months.

On a weekly closing basis there is major resistance at 38.71 and on a daily closing basis at 39.26. The 38.68-38.71 seems to be a good area where shorts can be placed. It is likely that a rally up to that price will be seen as a re-test of the recent 39.08 intra-day high. Support will now be found at 32.98 from two previous daily high closes, 1 daily low close, and the 20-day MA. On an intra-day or intra-week the support is down at 31.96. Major support will now be found at 29.72.

Sales of SNDA at 38.60 should be made placing a stop-close only stop loss at 39.26 or an intra-day stop loss at 39.75. The first objective and most likely to be seen on a pullback is 32.98 but a drop down to $31 and even down to 29.72 are definite possibilities. The 29.72 level needs to be considered major support and in looking at the weekly charts likely to be seen sometime over the next few weeks or couple of months. Risk/reward ratio on the trade is at least 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

AOB (Friday close at 11.15)

AOB had some very indicative closes this past week and now seems poised to drop. Friday's weekly close at 11.15 was exactly at the same price as the weekly close in March 7th and May 14th and is a major pivot point on a weekly basis for this stock. In addition Friday's daily close at 11.15 suggests a failure to follow through to Wednesday's daily close at 11.59 which was above the previous two high daily closes since February's big break which were at 11.50 and 11.53. By closing at 11.15 that possible breakout was erased.

There is no support of consequence until the $10 level is reached. Below 10.00 there are a few minor support levels between 9.40 and 9.60 but the major support level in AOB is down at 8.40.

Sales of AOB at Friday's closing price of 11.15 and up to 11.53 should be instituted using a stop loss at 11.93. Objective of the trade is 8.40, which offers a risk/reward ratio of 4-1. Using the 10-minute chart, if the stock is ready to fall the, 11.32 level should now act as decent resistance. If not ready to fall then a rally up to 11.60 could ensue. Either way the chart seems to be at an attractive and clearly defined level where to institute a short position.

My rating on the trade is a 6.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

RMBS (Friday closing price 19.11)

RMBS is a stock that I purchased in the low 13's looking exactly for the rally that has been seen over the past few weeks. My main objective to the upside has been reached and I believe that RMBS is now ready to move back down. Last week's weekly closing price of 19.32 was exactly at a strong area of resistance and this past weeks 19.11 weekly closing price (lower than last week) has confirmed the resistance is still there.

RMBS staged a strong rally from a 52-week low at 12.05 up to this past weeks high at 19.60 where it has encountered previous strong resistance. The stock is severely overbought and only saw one small $1 correction on the way up. In addition a gap was left back down at 14.05 that will likely act as a magnet if the stock gets back under selling pressure.

Resistance is very strong on a closing basis between 19.25-19.50 and between 19.48-19.60 on an intra-day basis. Support is now seen at 17.46-17.80 and the 20-day MA is currently at 17.28. Drops down to those price levels are likely. Below 17.31 there is no support until 15.46 is seen. At that price the 50-day MA is currently located as well as 3 previous weekly lows and 2 weekly highs.

Sales of RMBS at Friday's closing price of 19.11 and up to 19.48 with a stop loss at 19.75 and an objective of 15.50 will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

INTV (Friday closing price 9.38)

INTV is a stock I recently liquidated at a profit off of a long position. INTV is at an area of major weekly congestion and its highly unlikely that it will be able to get above that congestion without some strong positive fundamental news. It is highly likely that the stock is now in a trading range and Friday's close near the top of that trading range gives an opportunity to short the stock with a very evident limitation of risk as well as a good risk/reward ratio.

INTV, on a daily closing basis, has major resistance between 9.31 and 9.48 and on an intra-day basis between 9.50 and 9.60. Support is strong at 7.72 and then again at 7.29. It is likely that INTV will be trading in that range for the next few weeks if not months and "trading the range" seems to be the way to go.

Sales of INTV at Friday's closing price of 9.38 and up to 9.60 using a stop loss at 9.75 and an objective of 7.72 will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1.

My rating on the trade is 7 on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10.

Updates 
Monthly Portfolio Results
Status and stop loss changes 


Status of account as of 8/31

Profit of $6070 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions)

Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

INTV (long) $253
FCEL (long) $77
SPIL (long) $166
SMSI (long) $254
NUAN (long) $121
GPS (short) $27
ABC (short) $303

Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CEGE (long) $59
SCSS (long) $53
AOB (short) $29
GIGM (short) $73
ARNA (long) $45
PAAS (short) $103
GIGM (short) $79

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

PMCS (long) $98
CLDN (short) $273
ININ (long) $81
PAAS (short) $24
INAP (short) $102
XING (short) $72
MWA (long) $15
CRAY (long) $115

Open position in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30

SONS (long) $496
WOLF (long) $146
AOB (short) $18

Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention (including commissions)

Profit of $874

Status of account/portfolio as of 9/30

Profit of $6944 using 100 shares traded per mention (after commissions)

 


1) PMCS - Averaged long at 7.90 with 2 mentions. Stop loss removed. Stock closed Friday at 8.39.

2) XING - Shorted at 11.80. Stop loss at 12.04. Stock closed Friday at 11.08.

3) ARNA - Liquidated at 11.40. Loss on the trade of $31 per 100 shares plus commission.

4) ININ - Purchased at 18.19. Stop loss at 17.78. Stock closed Friday at 19.00.

5) SONS - Averaged long at 7.09 with 5 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed Friday at 6.10.

6) PAAS - Shorted at 29.14. Stop loss at 29.76. Stock closed Friday at 28.90.

7) CRAY - Purchased at 6.05. Stop loss now at 6.72. Stock closed Friday at 7.20.

8) MWA - Purchased at 12.24. Stop loss now at 11.79. Stock closed Friday at 12.39.

9) INAP - Shorted at 15.19. Stop loss at 15.52. Stock closed Friday at 14.17.

10) WOLF - Long at 13.82. Stop loss now at 12.09. Stock closed Friday at 12.36.

11) NUAN - Liquidated at 19.70. Profit on the trade of $135 per 100 shares minus commission.

12) AOB - Shorted at 10.97. Stop loss at 11.91. Stock closed Friday at 11.15.

13) CLDN - Shorted at 14.42. Stop loss now at 13.37. Stock closed Friday at 11.77.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.


 


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