|
|
|
|
|
|
Issue #68 
April 20, 2008 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
| Bulls Rise From The Ashes!
DOW Friday close at 12849
The DOW accomplished a difficult feat this week by breaking and closing above the previous major resistance level between 12743-12787. This was accomplished with the help of a bullish earnings report from GOOG as well as a slew of earnings reports during the week that failed to come in as bearishly as anticipated.
The breakout above this very important resistance level at 12743, on a daily closing basis, has definitely changed the playing field for a few weeks if not months. It now is highly probable that the downtrend is over, at least for the near term (2-3 months), and that a sideways trend will be in effect. The breakout is not a signal that the indexes are in getting into an up-trend as it is extremely rare that without a "major" fundamental change (something that has not happened) an index or a stock goes from down to up. Sideways is usually what happens in the interim. In this particular case, it likely means the market is going to give a trial or time period for all the Fed actions of the past two months to prove to the marketplace whether they are going to work or not.
The first thing that traders are going to have to determine, are the highs and lows that will be likely be seen during this "trial" period. It is evident that many companies are still in problems (to what actual degree is not known at this time) and that negatives still abound (proof of this was the Citi Bank & Merrill Lynch reports this past week). It is also evident that even if the Fed actions have stopped the bleeding, that the bottom-line (profits, earnings, PE ratios, etc) has been changed negatively and therefore strong rallies in the market cannot be supported with actual numbers, at this time.
In looking at the weekly chart, a trading range between 13113 and 12099 seems the most probable. There are good reasons for thinking this is a likely range. The major support level in the DOW, prior to the rally up to the new all-time high at 14093, was 13079-13113. That level is likely to work as a brick wall as closes above that level would actually put the DOW into a bull-trend (something I do not believe can be the case). In addition, the 50-week MA is currently at 13135, giving that level one additional reason to work as strong resistance. The bottom of the trading range should be between 12099 and 12110. There have been 3 clearly defined weekly low closes at that price going back to Mar07 and most recently in Jan08. That level is not defended with any kind of a weekly MA but seems to be a rational bottom-of-the-trading-range objective. This trading range, though, is something that will likely take 2-3 months to travel from top to the bottom, if not longer.
For the time being though, the breakout area at 12743 will now likely act as major support level for at least a few weeks. A trading range of 400 points, between 12743 and 13135, is likely to be seen for the next week or two, or at least until the euphoria of the breakout wears off. It is possible that action in the marketplace will be somewhat subdued but with an upward bias until the results of further Fed action are announced on April 30th or a new resistance level of consequence is found. It is widely anticipated the Fed will lower the rate an additional 25 points. Nonetheless it can be said that amount is "already in the market" and not likely to generate much follow through when announced.
One clear thing, though, the volatility in the market has now dropped dramatically, as shown by the non-volatile action on Friday when the DOW was breaking out. This kind of action is likely to prevent aggressive buying or selling in the index and therefore keep the rallies subdued and the volume down. On the other side of the coin, the sellers have now lost this particular battle and will not likely be aggressive until the parameters of the sideways trading range are set. It is likely that the action over the next couple of weeks will have an upward direction but be boring as well, especially since a relatively small trading range of 400 points is anticipated.
Approaching the 13000 level will not likely come easily as it is highly probable that until the Fed actually makes the announcement, on April 30th, on the Fed rate cut, that the DOW could get into a very narrow trading range between 12743 and 12970-13030. That would be a small range of 230-290 points for the coming week. On Monday I do see the indexes having incursions into both the red and the green areas while awaiting the NASDAQ and the SPX to have their own breakouts (something that did not happen this week).
Nonetheless, the break of resistance in the DOW was an accomplishment done in an impressive way. The likelihood of continued follow through to the upside is high and until a new area of major resistance is established (possibly around 13100), it is likely that strength will stick around.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 2402
The NASDAQ did not break out on Friday and it is possible that because of that the initial action on Monday will be to the downside. The high in the NASDAQ for the last two months has been 2419 (2413 on a weekly close) and Friday's intra-day high was 2413 and the close was 2402. Neither showed a breakout. In addition, the high on Friday was exactly at the 20-week MA which adds fuel to a possible bear trap on the DOW. Put all of these facts together, and it simply means the index has not yet given a positive signal, based on the weekly closes, and therefore questions still remain in this index, even if the DOW was able to give a buy signal.
Nonetheless, there are a couple of things that happened this past week that support further upside starting with the two gaps seen during the week. The first gap was seen on Tuesday between 2291 and 2313 and the second one seen on Friday was 2348 to 2383. Both of these gaps are likely to be considered as a breakaway and runaway gap and should generate strong further upside over the next few weeks, if the index can break above the resistance level and not close either of the gaps first.
These two gaps give chartists a clearly defined price point of consequence. A close of the runaway gap this coming week at 2348, added to a failure to get above the 20-week MA, or close above the previous high close at 2413 would generate a strong sell signal. Simply said, the bulls do not want to see the NASDAQ get down to 2348 as that would negate the formation. The bears will do everything in their power this week to close the gap early in the week before the bulls can generate a breakout. Having such clearly defined levels to look at, will make decisions a lot easier for the traders this coming week.
The outlook for next week favors the bulls, though Monday could be a day the bears go all out to try to negate Friday's positive action.
In looking at the positive side, a close on Monday above 2413, and more so a weekly close above 2432 (100-day MA), could generate moves as high at 2540 where the 100-week MA is currently located. Nonetheless, on the way up, there is likely to be minor resistance at 2450 (previous major and important daily low close) and very strong weekly close resistance between 2503-2515.
I would look at a possible range on Monday of 2392-2422 and a close above 2413. If the bears try to be aggressive on Monday and can get a small measure of success, the range might be 2371-2402 and a close around unchanged. Keep in mind that until the Fed makes its announcement on April 30th, strength in the NASDAQ will likely stay around. It is expected the Fed will lower the Fed rate an additional 25 basis points and that number is likely already "in the market". Nonetheless, some people are expecting perhaps as much as 50 points while there are many others saying that its possible the Fed will not lower at all. Because of this difference of opinion, it is unlikely traders will get heavily aggressive, on either side, until after the report is out. That means it's likely the market will remain relatively subdued until next week.
Like with the DOW, the NASDAQ is likely to show some weakness on Monday at some point during the day, but end up unchanged or higher at the end of the day. If the breakout (a close above 2413) does occur, a rally up to the 2503-2515 will likely be seen over the next 2 weeks. The 2505-2515 level is a strong resistance the NASDAQ will have trouble getting above. If the index is in a sideways trend, the trading range over the next 2-3 months could be 2200-2500.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1390
The SPX, much like the NASDAQ, did not breakout on either the daily or weekly charts on Friday but did show several reasons why the breakout is likely imminent. The index did close above two previous high daily closes at 1373 and 1381 as well as generate a close above the 100-day MA at 1382. In addition, a divergence from the year 2000 chart has now been shown and that, in and of itself, is probably the strongest reason that the bears have lost a lot of strength.
Though it cannot yet be said that SPX downtrend is over. It can be said that the probabilities of the downtrend being over are much stronger after Friday's rally than at any time over the past 12 weeks.
In looking at the weekly closing charts, there is strong resistance at 1395, on a daily and weekly closing basis, and at 1407, where the 100-week MA is presently located. A close any day next week, and especially next Friday, above 1395 will give a strong short-term buy signal. A weekly close above 1395 will likely generate an objective of at least 1433 or 1441 (previously important low close supports in the SPX) or even up to 1456 (a previous high weekly close) or 1450 where the 50-week MA is currently located. Support is presently down at 1333 and 1325 but if the index is able to close above 1407 next week, the 1387-1390 level would become major support for the short-term. On the daily charts, the only slight difference lies in the fact that the 1441 level, where the 200-day MA is currently located, would be the objective of a break of resistance at 1395. Support levels on the daily chart are quite similar to the ones in the weekly chart with one exception. There is very decent support in the SPX daily chart at 1343-1353 from a previous low, a previous high, as well as from the 20 and 50 day MA's.
It is likely that the SPX will also be in a very subdued trading range this coming week between 1382 and perhaps 1407. Even though, the bulls and the bears are likely to be at each others throats at the beginning of the week as the bears want to prevent a close above 1395 and the bulls want to accomplish it as soon as possible. The bulls have the edge right now and a close above 1395 is likely, as well as a run-up to 1407. Nonetheless, it is also likely that no further upside will be seen until after the FOMC meeting on April 30th.
Due to chart formations as well as the recent strength shown, it is likely the indexes will continue to go higher for the next couple of weeks. Nonetheless, due to deep-rooted economic problems that have gone away, upside rallies will be limited.
In addition, a drop in the Fed rate on April 30th will likely be the last for many months to come and therefore no further temporary "miracle" cures will be available. It has been said by many analysts that the action the Fed has taken over the past few months will not bear fruit for at least 6-9 months and therefore the indexes will have to fend for themselves without a possible crutch by the Fed. Starting next month, the indexes will likely trade off of economic and earnings reports. Since there are still a mountain of problems to be resolved and many not even yet known, it is likely a sideways trading range with decent peaks and valleys (generated after positive or negative reports as well as "perception" on how the Fed action of the past is doing) will occur.
It is not likely to be an easy market to trade as great patience as well as a conviction that the market is in a sideways trend will need to be exercised. It will be difficult for many investors as people tend to be bulls or bears by nature and sideways markets tend to confuse people, rather than clear their minds.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
|
CHART Outlooks
Due to the possible change of trend from bear to sideways, for the next week or two stocks will generally have an upward bias toward reaching tops in their respective trading ranges. Nonetheless, since the indexes (as well as many stocks) have already seen a 70% rally from the probable bottom of their trading ranges, the upside this week will likely be limited. The mentions this week are all longs with attractive chart patterns and well defined support levels. I do anticipate some weakness on Monday or Tuesday and therefore likely to be a good time to purchase the positions.
ELON (Friday Close at 14.24)
ELON is a stock that broke out 2 weeks ago above an important resistance and pivot point at 15.10 only to reverse itself and give a failure-to-follow-though signal when the indexes showed weakness. Nonetheless, the stock over the past 9 weeks had built a strong support base between 10.82 and 14.72 that is not likely to disappear, especially now when the indexes seem to have broken out. Dips into that support base should be bought.
During the last 4 weeks ELON has not only tested the 200-week MA down at 10.82 but managed to break, on an intra-week basis, every single weekly MA on the last rally up. All of this action seems to point to a stock that has been successful in building a strong support base from which to change its downtrend into at least a sideways trend, much like the DOW seems to have done.
Though the bear-to-sideways trend signal has not yet been given, the action in the indexes on Friday, as well as the chart action this past week, not only suggests the change of trend is imminent but also presents a good entry point with defendable supports levels nearby.
The price action in ELON this past week, seems to suggest that a new support level has been built while the stock was testing, on a daily closing basis, the previous breakout level between 13.96 and 14.16. In addition, the 100-week MA it broke above on March 31st (presently at 13.68) was successfully re-tested this week as well.
Support in ELON at this time will be strong at 13.64-13.96 on a daily closing basis and strong at 13.68 on a weekly closing basis. Resistance of some consequence is found between 14.77-15.10, on both the daily and weekly closing charts. Above that, resistance is found at 15.77 (minor) and at 17.27 (also minor). Strong weekly close resistance is found at 18.03 and the 200-day MA as well as possible upside objective on this move is up at 19.13.
With some weakness expected in the indexes on Monday or Tuesday, it is probable that ELON will get as low as 13.75 during that time. Such a move down could be seen as the last test of support and give the stock a strong support level from which to launch a rally.
It is evident that the biggest hurdle ELON faces is to establish itself above the 15.10 level, on a weekly closing basis. Two weeks ago the stock attempted to do that but was only successful on a daily closing basis (not on a weekly basis). A weekly close above 15.10 will break all the weekly MA's and give free reign for the stock to rally up to the $18-$19 level with minimal resistance. I do believe that with the help of the indexes, ELON will be able to accomplish a close above 15.10 this coming week.
Purchases of ELON between 13.75-13.90 and placing a stop loss at 13.31 and having an objective of 18.03-19.13 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 7 to 9-1 (depending on the entry point). I do expect the stock to get to the desired entry price on Monday or Tuesday, but if it doesn't get down that low, this is a stock that will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 4-1 with purchases as high as 14.20-14.40.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
HOKU (Friday close at 9.15)
HOKU is a stock that over the past 4 years has shown a tendency toward spiking (probably through earnings or news reports). In general, the spikes have been upward as I have counted 13 up spikes and only 3 down spikes druging the past 3 years. By the same token, on those occasions where there has been no spike activity, the stock seems to trade in consistent chart patterns. Because of the propensity for upward spikes this is a stock that seems better suited to be traded only on the long side when the chart pattern is clear.
The last spike up occurred in January and since then the stock has gotten itself into a trading range between 7.00 and 10.50. For the last 4 weeks, after reaching a low of 7.05, HOKU has been on a clearly defined up-trend which reached the $10 level once already two weeks ago.
A recent dip in the stock back down to the 8.50 presents a good risk/reward ratio opportunity, especially when the recent breakout in the indexes is factored in as well as the possibility of an upward spike being seen over the next few weeks.
HOKU shows good support at 8.52 (recent low and 20-day MA). Decent resistance is seen close by at 9.50 where the 100 and 200 day MA are both currently located, as well as the most recent high daily close at 9.45. Above that level, resistance is found at 10.25-10.38 (10.30 on a daily closing basis) and then again at 11.13 (10.75 on a daily closing basis). Above that level there is absolutely nothing on the chart until $13 is reached.
Though this stock is presently trading below a very decent resistance level at 9.50, it seems that the 8.50 level of support is quite strong as well, and with the likelihood the indexes are heading higher, the probabilities increase that HOKU will breakout as well. The logical objective would be 10.30 but having been up at that level on so many occasions already, it is highly possible that on this occasion, the stock could go higher or even get a spike high. It is interesting to note that a break above 9.50 will also generate a break of the long term MA's and that could give the stock "sling-shot" momentum making the probabilities of breaking the 10.30-10.75 resistance strong and suggesting the stock may reach $13 on this attempt.
Purchases of HOKU between 8.88-8.92 and having a stop-loss at 8.42 and an objective of 10.45-11.13 will offer a risk/reward ratio of somewhere between 3 and 4-1. The additional reason for considering this trade is the spike up possibility up to the $13 level, which would increase the risk/reward ratio to 8-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
RIO (Friday closing price 37.93)
RIO is a stock that began an up-trend on Sep05 at 9.58 that culminated with an all-time intra-day high of 38.32 in Nov07. The stock then got itself into a corrective phase that saw a spike low of 24.00 when the DOW dropped down to 11634. Over the past 6 months RIO has been basically trading in a sideways range between the $30 and $38 level, with the exception of the spike low. This past week the stock had a breakout on the daily and weekly closing chart and was able to make a new all-time daily and weekly closing high with a close at 37.93 (above the previous all-time weekly high at 36.67).
The breakout has as an objective a minimum of $2-$3 move upward but often a 10% rally from the previous high can be applied as well. That would make the minimum objective right around the $40 level. Nonetheless, in the case of RIO, the previous move up from 24.00 up to 37.52 can also be used to provide a probable objective using the most recent low of 29.62 and applying the same $13.52 seen before, thus giving a possible objective of this breakout a rally to 43.14.
Support in RIO will now be very strong at the previous weekly breakout point of 36.50. On a weekly basis, the stock should no longer see a close below that level. On a daily closing basis, the 37.75 level was the previous daily closing high and should also act as support. Some support will also be seen at the two most recent daily closing highs at 37.13. On an intra-day basis, the stock left a gap opening at 36.30-36.69 which will also act as major support due to the weekly breakout level at 36.67.
RIO presents a very attractive buy opportunity based on just the strength of its chart but added to the probabilities of the indexes also heading higher, makes this trade highly rated.
I do believe there will be some intra-day weakness in RIO on Monday or Tuesday and drops down to the 36.69-37.04 will be seen.
Purchases of RIO between 36.70-37.05 and using a stop loss at 35.41 on a stop close only basis, and having an objective of 43.00 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
FTEK (Friday closing price 23.16)
FTEK is a stock that last year in June was trading up at the $38 level at which time it got itself into a strong daily and weekly downtrend that culminated in January 17th with a spike low at 14.15. At that point the stock generated a bear market correction back up to 21.00, and a few weeks later went back down to test the low with a drop back down to 15.76. The re-test of the low was successful and since then the stock has been on an aggressive move up breaking above the previous high at 21.00, giving a buy signal, and suggesting more is to come.
It seems quite evident that FTEK has broken out of its downtrend and is now likely in a sideways trend looking for the top of whatever channel it will be trading in for the next 3-6 months. In looking at the weekly chart the most probable trading channel is a range between $20 and $30 and with the stock still near the bottom of that channels presents a good buying opportunity.
One very positive thing the daily chart shows at this time is a flag formation that has been built over the past week with the flagpole being a strong two-day rally that started on April 9th at 20.02 and topped out at 24.00 on April 10th. During the past 6 trading days the stock has built the flag area, with a low of 22.40 and a high of 24.57. FTEK now seems about ready to breakout above the top of the flag this coming week and generate a rally of at least $4 from the bottom of the flag at 22.24. Such a breakout would give a short-term objective of 26.24.
Support is found at the bottom of the flag at 22.24 but additionally there are two prior intra-day lows of consequence at 22.50 and 21.55 that support this area strongly. In addition, the weekly chart shows 22.01 and 22.09 to comprise a major support level as well as pivot point. On two occasions in 2007, FTEK closed at the $22 level and both times it generated a strong ralliy, once to 38.20 and the other time to 34.47. It is evident that if FTEK has now established itself above the $22 level (likely) that it is going to be extremely difficult for that level to break. Resistance is very decent up at 24.93 (50-week MA) and again at 25.45 (24.43 on a daily closing basis). The 25.45 level was the first high after the initial drop from 31.20 to 21.55. There is one addition intra-day high at 25.45 (25.13 on a daily closing basis) seen back in September of last year that gives added strength to this price area being resistance. There is also decent resistance from the 200-day MA currently located at 24.20. Above the 25.45 level there is virtually no resistance of consequence until 29.11-29.60 is seen. A daily and weekly close above 25.13 should generate a move up to the level without much problem.
It is evident that FTEK will have some problems getting above the $25 level but with the flag formation in place as well as the short-term strengthening of the indexes, the probabilities have increased quite a bit. In addition, the support is of such consequence that it seems the worst that could happen is a tight trading range between $22 and $25.
I do believe, though, that the probabilities are good that FTEK will be getting into a wide trading range between $22 - $32, or at worst $20 - $30,
Purchases of FTEK between 22.50 and 23.10 and placing a stop loss at 21.45 and having an objective of 29.60 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Picking the correct entry point is going to be tough, though, as there is a possibility of a drop back down to the 22.50 level, especially if the indexes show weakness on Monday or Tuesday. Nonetheless, the most probable scenario is an entry point between 22.90 and 23.10, as it seems the flag formation is totally formed and ready to breakout. The 21.45 stop loss level, will also likely be raised soon, therefore making the risk/reward ratio even better.
My rating on the trade is a 6.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). The only reason for the lower rating on what seems to be a very strong chart formation is because there is very decent resistance at $25. A close above that level would raise the rating up to an 8 as well as generate a signal to add positions.
|
Updates
|
| Updates on Held Stock
|
Open Positions and stop loss changes
|
| NUAN did break out of its coil formation and ran straight up and into the gap area that was left back in December between 21.09 and 19.69. If a sideways trading range gets established this week in the indexes, it is likely that NUAN will close the gap and also get into a sideways trading range as well. Leaving the gap open would be a signal the stock is still in a downtrend and therefore the first course of action for the bulls will be to close the gap at 21.09. Thereafter it is likely that NUAN will get into a sideways trading range for the next few months between $15 and $20. Support this week is likely to be at 19.80 and if stretched then at 19.33 (19.43 on a weekly closing basis). Resistance is not clearly defined above 20.24 until the $22 dollar level but that high is not likely to be seen, so I would have to say that closing the 21.09 level gap will meet with strong selling. Probable trading range for the next two weeks is 19.33-21.09. ELON could have found a bottom to this recent fall with a low last week at 13.41 and a re-test with a drop back down to 13.55 on Thursday. It is my belief that the stock will be once again test the resistance level up at 15.10 this coming week but may see a bit of early week weakness, if the indexes have the kind of day on Monday that I anticipate (both green and red during the day). I believe that ELON could drop as low as 13.75 during that weakness period. Nonetheless, I also believe the range for this coming week will be 13.75 to 15.25 and a close on Friday around the 15.10 level will be seen. If this all happens and next week the indexes take off toward the top of their trading range, as anticipated, ELON could be a beneficiary of that action with a rally up to 17.92-18.44 over the next few weeks. SVNT did manage to close higher than last week this past week and that gives the 18.80-19.00 support level added strength on the weekly chart. The $20 level is an evident pivot point and if the indexes show a bit of weakness at the beginning of the week, I can see SVNT getting down near the 18,80-19.04 support level though 19.14 is the most probable low that will be seen this week. By the same token I do believe the stock will rally as high as 21.13 this week and likely close out the week somewhere above $20. If the indexes do have their strong rally next week, SVNT could have an objective of as high as 22.68-23.00 over the next couple of week. Overall, though, this is not necessarily a stock that will then get into a trading range but may start a new up-trend after it is all said and done. I do believe that once SVNT sets itself above the $20 level, that level will no longer be broken anytime in the near future. OVTI confused me a bit on Friday with the close in the red, below an important weekly close, and on a day that the indexes were very strong. In addition, it is my understanding this stock has strong fundamentals so it was very confusing to see the stock close where it did on Friday. I will admit that this chart evaluation today has a bit more guesswork that I would normally choose to have. It does seem that the recent weekly up-trend is still viable though the stock is in the midst of a corrective phase. I would have thought that with the indexes breaking out, that OVTI would be showing signs the corrective phase is over, but that wasn't the case on Friday. I had to go back to Jan 17th 2005 to find daily closing support at 15.78 as well as use the 20-week MA line currently at 15.55 to find a strong reason for keeping the positions open. I also surmise that the gap between 14.44 and 15.05 on the chart and the proximity to that area, has kept the sellers aggressive in trying to close the gap and is the main reason the stock did not rally in conjunction with the indexes. A closure of the gap is not something that would be positive to the chart and therefore the bears are aggressively trying to close it. Th bulls are going to have to aggressively support the area between the recent low of 15.38 and the other two supports mentioned above. I do believe the bulls have the upper hand, at least on a minimal basis, especially now that the indexes have accomplished a positive thing. Nonetheless, the expected weakness for the indexes at the beginning of the week will give fuel to the sellers in OVTI to push hard, while the weakness is being experienced. The stock on Monday will likely be on the defensive and in the red most of the day. As long as the stock is able to keep itself above the $15 level minimum and hopefully above 15.38 and certainly above 15.55 on a daily closing basis, I believe it will recover and flourish thereafter. In the meantime, though, it's likely to be a sweaty-palm day on Monday and perhaps on Tuesday. Should the stock be able to defend itself successfully and maintain itself above the low last week at 15.38 and preferably above the 100-day MA currently at 15.60, I would anticipate a rally next week up to the 17.13-17.33 level. Thereafter, if the indexes continue to rally and a weekly close above 17.94 is generated, a rally up to 19.62-20.36 level would likely be seen. For now, it's pray and hope the chart evaluation (somewhat based on some "guess" speculation) will be correct. INTC gave very strong mixed signals this past week. To begin with, the company released a very bullish earnings report on Wednesday that generated a gap opening between 20.94 and 21.86. The gap opening was a strong positive, nonetheless, the inability of the stock to get above 22.45 (previous high) by a substantial amount as well as clear the 100-day MA at 22.51 and 200-week MA at 22.61 has now become a major cause for concern to the bulls. In addition, the strength in the indexes on Friday, should have given INTC good reasons to run to the upside, but the stock did not run. The weekly chart continues to have a bearish flag formation with the top of the inverted flag at 23.20 as well as a breakaway gap (26.59-26.34) and runaway gap (24.38-23.60) making things even look more negative. With the stock having problems at the MA's and not even being able to address the flag, the probabilities still lie on the side of the bears even though everything else around the stock, especially in the tech sector, seems to be pointing to higher prices across the board. Possible trading range for the next couple of weeks could be 23.20 - 21.77. Overall, though, this is a stock chart that seems tilted toward downside moves. It's possible that INTC will show some strength during the next couple of weeks with rallies up to 23.20 but if the stock begins to get into the gap on the downside and starts trading below 21.77 (support of some consequence) it could ugly for the bulls. Objective on the downside continues to be 18.95.
|
1) DIOD - Covered short at 23.13. Profit on the trade of $203 per 100 shares minus commission.
2) DIOD - Shorted at 25.84. Covered short at 25.69. Profit on the trade of $15 per 100 shares minus commission.
3) ELON - Covered shorts at 14.82. Loss on the trade of $50 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
4) OVTI - Purchased at 15.46. Averaged in at 15.85. Stop loss at 14.90. Stock closed on Friday at 15.79.
5) ITG - Shorted at 49.07. Liquidated at 50.19. Loss on the trade of $112 per 100 shares plus commissions.
6) HRB - Shorted at 21.31. Averaged in at 21.675. Covered shorts at 21.76. Loss on the trde of $17 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
7) VLO - Liquidated at 53.72. Averaged in at 48.71. Profit on the trade of $1503 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.
8) SVNT - Purchased at 20.32 and again at 19.00. Averaged in at 19.66. Stop loss at 18.25. Stock closed on Friday at 19.89.
9) INTC - Shorted at 22.40. Stop loss at 23.30. Stock closed on Friday at 22.55.
10) ELON - Purchased at 14.11. Stop loss at 13.31. Stock closed on Friday at 14.25.
11) IR - Shorted at 44.80 and again at 45.55. Averaged in at 45.175. Covered shorts at 46.00. Loss on the trade of $165 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
12) NUAN - Purchased at 17.48. Liquidated at 19.21. Profit of $173 per 100 shares minus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
|
|
|