Issue #389
August 17, 2014
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tech Sector Remains Hot. NASDAQ to Resume Uptrend?

DOW Friday closing price - 16662

The DOW generated a second green weekly close in a row and closed slightly above the mid-point of the week's trading range, suggesting the probabilities favor further upside above this past week's high at 16775. By the same token, the index generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having made a new 11-day high and then went below the previous day's low and closed in the red and in the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside and that the rally high for this bounce might have been seen this past week. The signals being given are not only mixed but also confusing inasmuch as Friday's negative reversal action was blamed on a flare-up in tensions between Russia and the Ukraine and it won't be known until this week if that was in effect the cause of the sell-off or simply the catalyst used by the traders to renew the selling pressure.

On a negative chart note though, on the daily closing chart the DOW generated a successful retest of the "general" resistance area at 16700 having closed at 16713 on Thursday and then having a red daily close on Friday. In addition, that same 16700 level was had been previously reinforced as a resistance level of some consequence as on May 13th the index made a new all-time high daily close at 16715 and that high held for 10 days before the bull trend continued, meaning that the 16700 is considered a pivotal level that has not yet been broken to the upside on this rally.

It is likely that the tensions in Russia/Ukraine will once again ease this coming week and that will allow the traders in the DOW to reveal what their intentions were on Friday. Nonetheless, for now the outlook for the index this coming week remains cloudy.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows no resistance until 16970 is reached, having broken on Friday above the previous intra-week resistance at 16735. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, resistance is decent between 16713 and 16734. A close above 16734 would leave the index without any resistance of consequence until the 17000 demilitarized zone is reached.

To the downside, the DOW will show very minor intra-week support at 16518 and then nothing until pivotal support at 16333 (16368 on a daily closing basis). The 200-day MA is currently at 16385 and a confirmed break of that line would likely be indicative that this correction is going to continue and that further downside is forthcoming. Further support of consequence will be found at the 16000 level and again at the 15700 level. A daily closing low below 15698 would likely bring in panic selling.

There are many questions that will be asked this coming week regarding the short-term outlook for the DOW, starting with the negative reversal seen on the daily chart on Friday. The intra-week break above 16735 this past week was a positive for the bulls and suggested the index would move an additional 250-265 points but the reversal on Friday put a damper on that outlook that will require further clarification.

One thing that is quite certain, if the bears are planning to generate a 2011-like 20% correction and be finished by October they are running out of time. There are only 7 week's left until the next round of earnings reports start in October and if the indexes don't start falling this week the time frame will be reduced by 1 week and to generate a 3000 point drop in 6 weeks will be close to impossible.

The bears need to get the DOW below the 16500 level at the beginning of the week or the probabilities will shift back to the bulls. Having had several opportunities to deliver the "killing blow" and failing, the bulls seem to have the edge this week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4464

The NASDAQ continued to lead the market this past week, having moved up 2.2% in value while the other 2 indexes moved up between .7% and 1.1%. In addition, the negative reversal seen on Friday on the other 2 indexes was actually a positive reversal in the NASDAQ and that technically suggests more of the same will be seen this coming week, meaning a new 14-year high is likely to be made. As long as the Tech Sector continues to generate buy interest, the possibilities of a correction of consequence are low. The charts of almost all the main stocks in the index (AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, NFLX, and BIDU) are suggesting that further upside is to come. Only the chart of AMZN can be considered to be in a downtrend but even in that stock there is room for further upside without breaking the recent downtrend.

The NASDAQ closed near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 4482 is likely to be seen. The 14-year high is a double top at 4485 and if that level gets broken there is no chart resistance level above to prevent the index from moving additionally 200-500 points higher. As such, this coming week is pivotal and likely decisive and the probabilities favor the bulls.

To the upside and on a daily closing basis, the NASDAQ shows resistance at 4472 and at 4485 and on a weekly closing basis, the only resistance above is at 4485. Above 4485 there is no resistance whatsoever until the all-time high monthly close at 4696 is reached. Intra-week, resistance above 4485 is not found until the 5000 demilitarized zone is reached. All-time high is at 5132.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will show minor support at 4413, minor again at 4372 and decent at 4351/4352. Decent to perhaps strong support is found at 4321 that if broken will likely take the index down to the 3946-4000 level.

The NASDAQ is the index the traders will key on this week as the index only closed 19 points below the 14-year high and that means that any further upside on Monday above Friday's high at 4482 will likely lead to a new 14-year high being made and a lot of automatic buying being seen. With no economic reports due out on Monday or Tuesday and the bulls seemingly back in control of the chart, the bears are likely to need some escalation over the weekend of the Russia/Ukraine or Iraq crisis to prevent new highs from being made.

SPX Friday closing price - 1955

The SPX had an up week and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1955 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, like with the DOW, the index had a negative reversal day on Friday and did not accomplish breaking any resistance levels to the upside, meaning that the outlook for this week is largely dependent on what the NASDAQ does as well as to whether the conflict in Russia/Ukraine and Iraq continue.

The SPX seems to be the mimic these days as the index has not been able to make any kind of a statement on its own and has been following the other indexes for any kind of direction. For the past 12 days the index has mostly traded between the 50 and 100 day MA's, currently at 1918 and 1957 respectively, and neither of those lines has been a major catalyst for the last 12 months. By the same token, it can be said that there is a slight bias to the upside since the 100-day MA has been more of a support during the past 12 months than the 50-day has been resistance and since the 100-day line has held it does suggest the bulls have the upper hand.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows resistance at 1968. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the resistance is between 1962 (all-time high daily close on June 20th that stood up for 6 days) and 1958 (low daily close on July 17th that when broken caused the index to fall to 1904 to). Until the bulls are able to generate a close above 1962, the index will continue to be under some sell pressure. Above that level, minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance will be found between 1983 and 1985 and stronger at the all-time high at 1991.

To the downside, the SPX will now show daily close support at 1930 that could be considered a minor short-term pivot point and at 1909 which was the most recent low daily close. Certainly, the entire area between 1870 and 1930 can be considered important and indicative support, especially since the 200-day MA is currently at 1870 and if broken would likely generate strong selling interest.

Though the NASDAQ is considered the leader of the indexes, it should be noted that if the bulls in the SPX can generate a daily close above 1962, a signal will be given that the current dip/weakness is over and that the uptrend is likely to resume. If that happens, it is unlikely that the all-time high at 1991 will hold up as the 2000 level will beckon strongly.

Probabilities still slightly favor the bears since resumption of the uptrend has not yet occurred.


The indexes once again are giving mixed signals with the NAZ showing further upside is likely to be seen and the other 2 indexes still uncommitted to a direction as they remain below resistance levels in spite of the recent rally. The 2-way action on Friday was volatile and under other circumstances might have been indicative but with blame for the sell-off being put on escalation of tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and that conflict likely to ease over the weekend, the traders will be unable to evaluate the action seen until trading starts this week. As such, as of this writing there are a lot more questions than answers.

This coming week seems to be pivotal, inasmuch as any further upside above last week's highs should generate new buying interest and failure to go above last week's highs likely to generate new selling interest. Nonetheless, with no economic reports of consequence due out this week that can be used as a catalyst, the traders will need to see the action at the beginning of the week before they can make any decisions on what direction to follow. Decisions as such are likely to be more chart-oriented than anything else.

The bears are the ones with the burden-of-proof this week as they have had many opportunities to put the "nail in the coffin" and have failed. The uptrend has not been broken (simply paused by a "small" correction) and such, the easiest path is to the upside. Probabilities favor further upside.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions in this week's newsletter. The indexes are giving mixed signals with the NAZ looking to go higher and the DOW and SPX "on the fence". As such, there is no consensus of opinion regarding the overall direction for the market.

Nonetheless, the mention from last week in CAT that did not reach the desired entry point remains viable no matter what the indexes do. In addition, if the indexes do give a sign of direction early in the week, mentions will be given in the message board.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AKS made another 31-month weekly closing high on Friday, the 5th in a row since breaking above the 200-week MA, and got up close to the January 2012 weekly closing high at 9.91 with a rally up to 9.90. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to keep the buying coming in and the stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting a drop below last week's low at 9.52 will be seen this week. The only support close-by, and even then only minor support, is at 9.52 and then nothing until minor support is found again at 8.86. Intra-day support is found at 9.00 in the form of the 200 60-minute MA. The probabilities are still decent that the 200-week MA, currently at 7.85, will be tested at some point and a break below 8.86 will likely cause that to happen. To the upside, resistance is still found at the 31-month high at 10.33.

CVX continued to show weakness, having gone above last week's high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 125.68 will be seen this week. On an additional negative note, the stock closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 127.56 made in July 2013 and gave a failure to follow through signal that if confirmed with another close below that level next Friday would suggest that further downside of consequence will be seen. The negative inverted flag formation is still in place and a break below the bottom of the flag at 124.58 gives a flag objective of 116.00. The 200-day MA is currently at 122.25 and should offer some support but if 124.58 is broken it will become a resistance level. To the upside, resistance is found at the recent high at 128.67 and again at the 50-day MA, currently at 129.50. The stock will find itself at a daily close pivot level starting on Monday as some support is found on the daily chart between 125.82 and 126.42. Having closed on Friday at 126.10, it is likely that a close above or below that area will stimulate some additional trading interest. Probabilities favor the bears but it is a pivotal week.

DD did not accomplish anything last week as the stock did generate a green weekly close but did not break any resistance levels above and closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders are waiting for direction from the indexes. The stock has been straddling the 200-day MA, currently at 64.95, for the past 12 days, having closed slightly above it and slightly below it repeatedly over this period of time. Resistance to the upside is clearly defined between 65.98 and 66.19 and then a bit stronger at the recent high at 66.95. If 66.19 is broken the bias will shift to the upside and if 66.95 is broken the stock is likely to move up to at least the 68.72/68.82 level. Support is found at 64.35 and at 63.70 with the bias shifting back to the bears if 64.35 is broken and strong selling likely to be seen if 63.70 is broken. Downside objective remains the $60 level. The chart continues to favor the bears but if the indexes rally it could be the catalyst that will generate a rally to test the recent high at 69.70.

DLTR had an uneventful inside week that keeps the short-term bias slightly to the upside but also keeps the chart susceptible to selling. The stock seems to be presently in a $54-$56 trading range that is totally meaningless. A rally above 57.22 would give a strong edge to the bulls while a drop below 52.92 would do the same for the bears. Probabilities favor more of the same as seen this past week.

FCEL generated a new 5-month weekly closing high on Friday, suggesting the stock is ready to start moving higher. By the same token, the bulls still need to generate an intra-week break above 2.65 to bring about new buying interest. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2.58 is likely to be seen this week, meaning the probabilities do favor the break of resistance occurring. Pivotal support is now found at 2.24. The close on Friday does give the edge to the bulls but the action seen does not yet suggest the break of the 2.65 level is imminent, meaning that a trading range this week between 2.29 and 2.64 is most probable.

GIGM made a new 31-month intra-week low at .87 cents this past week that does put a negative tone on the short-term outlook for the company. By the same token, the break of the 1.00 was expected as multiple lows had been built at that price over the 4 months that had become a magnet for the traders to break. The bulls were able to rally the stock to close in the middle of the week's trading range and "not generate" a new 31-month weekly closing low, meaning that the break was not as negative as it could have been, but the bulls must do something positive this week or the traders will lose interest in trading the stock to the upside. The bulls need a rally and close above 1.00 to turn this break into a possible positive. A break below the week's low at .87 cents would be a negative that would likely take the stock down to at least the .80 cents and probably keep the stock trading between .80 and 1.00 for the next couple of months if not the rest of the year.

HAL bulls attempted to rally the stock this past week with the help of the index rally but they failed as the stock ended up having an inside week and a weekly close that was more indicative of weakness than of strength. Four weeks ago the stock gave a small sell signal when it closed below the previous low weekly close at 68.98 and for the past 3 weeks the bulls have been unable to negate the break having seen weekly closes at 68.72, 68.31 and 68.42. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the probabilities favor the downside and a break below last week's low at 67.17. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the highs of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside, meaning the bulls will have first crack at deciding what the stock will do for the week. Resistance is clearly defined as the $70 demilitarized zone with 3 intra-week highs over the past 12 days at 69.86, at 69.94, and at 70.33. Support is found at 67.17, at 67.03 and pivotal at 66.77. It is likely the stock will move based on what happens with the indexes. A break above 70.33 will likely bring about a rally up to 71.46 and a break of that resistance would suggest the all-time high at 74.33 would be tested. A break below 66.77 would suggest a drop down to the $60-$61 level. The chart is leaning to the bear side because of an inverted flag formation that offers a downside objective of 62.77. Nonetheless, a rally above 70.33 would turn things around, meaning that the stop loss on the short trade should now be lowered to 70.43.

LVS generated a green weekly close on Friday but the green was so small as to not make any impression on the chart, especially considering that the previous weeks close was 68.13 and Friday's close was 68.42 and both closes are still below the low weekly close for the past 11 months at 69.80. The bulls did manage to close the stock near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 69.09 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, resistance of some consequence should be found at the $70 demilitarized zone that should prevent any further upside from happening. Nine days ago, the stock gapped down from 71.36 to 70.68 and the probabilities do favor a retest of that gap before further selling interest appears. A rally on Monday above last week's high at 69.09 will likely insure that action. The chart though, continues to be heavily favoring the bears and a $60 objective and after a small rally this week the probabilities do favor the downside continuing.

MELI followed through to the previous week's positive earnings report and close on the highs of the week to get up close to the 21-month high at 112.87 with a rally this past week to 112.40. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to break through that resistance and the stock fell back a bit at the end of the week on a negative note, having closed on Friday near the lows of the day and suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. By the same token, the stock once again closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, also suggesting that a rally above last week's high at 112.40 will be seen this week. Minor support will be found at 108.24 and a bit stronger at 106.60. Probabilities still suggest that the 112.87 high will not be broken and that the breakout of the 200-day MA, currently at 97.00, will be tested at some point. Nonetheless, the action this week does suggest that profits be taken on a dip down to the 106.60 level and a new sell be considered on a rally above 112.40 but below 112.87.

OXY generated a second green weekly close on Friday and more importantly above the $100 demilitarized zone, suggesting that the buying interest remains. By the same token, the stock had an inside week which also suggests that the buying interest is still limited. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and the probabilities do favor the stock going above last week's high at 101.05 this coming week. By the same token, the stock is showing decent and possibly short-term pivotal resistance between 101.05 and 101.23 that if broken could bring about a rally up to as high as 104.00. Minor support is found at 99.05, a bit stronger at 97.77 and pivotal 96.82 that does include the 200-day MA, currently at 96.35. My suggestion is to take profits if the stock breaks above 101.23 (stop loss like at 101.35) and look to re-short between 103.50 and 104.00. The chart direction for this week is almost a toss of a coin (50-50).

SINA had a better than expected earnings report and did generate a green weekly close but the action seen was disappointing inasmuch as the stock gave back most of the rally off of the earnings report to close very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range and still below the previous 2 high weekly closes at 49.60 and at 50.70. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday, meaning that the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside below Friday's low at 48.74, meaning that the gap created on Friday between 48.43 and 48.74 will likely be closed and also suggesting the better than expected earnings report was not good enough to change the recent sideways trading action. A break below Thursday's low at 47.34 would be strongly disappointing to the bulls and it might generate new selling interest in spite of the good earnings report. As such, a stop loss at 47.24 can be considered though in reality the stock still needs to break below the 46.26 level to stimulate new shorting interest. Friday's action was perplexing and does suggest that the stock/company needs index help (from the Chinese market) to head higher in the short-term.

WDC generated a red weekly close but it was not indicative of what is to come since the stock still closed above the psychological support at the $100 level. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the probabilities favor a rally above last week's high at 102.12 more so than a drop below last week's low at 98.43. The daily chart does suggest that the 102.11/102.12 level is resistance and that if broken the stock would continue higher and possibly make a new all-time high above 102.89. Nonetheless, the stock is still showing a double top at 102.89/102.76 that will need to be broken to generate new buying interest. To the downside, support is found at 98.43, at 97.97 and at 97.59, as well as the general support at 97.00. As such, the stock is presently trading within the "general" support at $97 and the "general" resistance at $103 and a break of either of those levels will likely be indicative. The probabilities favor the stock doing whatever the indexes do but then again that means the probabilities favor the upside.


1) OXY - Averaged short at 103.486 (3 mentions) Stop loss now at 101.33. Stock closed on Friday at 100.46.

2) AKS - Purchased at 8.57. Stop loss now at 9.42. Stock closed on Friday at 9.59.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.276 (3 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 2.53.

4) WDC - Averaged short at 100.775 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 103.35. Stock closed on Friday at 100.62.

5) MELI - Shorted at 109.56. Stop loss at 112.97. Stock closed on Friday at 109.88.

6) GIGM - Averaged long at 1.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .94.

7) HAL - Shorted at 69.68. Stop loss at 70.43. Stock closed on Friday at 68.42.

8) CVX - Shorted at 127.58. Stop loss at 128.77. Stock closed on Friday at 126.10.

9) SINA - Averaged long at 46.316 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 46.16. Stock closed on Friday at 49.13.

10) LVS - Averaged short at 74.033. Stop loss now at 71.46. Stock closed on Friday at 68.42.

11) SINA - Purchased at 50.51. Liquidated at 49.18. Loss on the trade of $133 per 100 shares plus commissins.

12) NFLX - Shorted at 457.09. Covered shorts at 458.95. Loss on the trade of $186 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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