Issue #2
January 15, 2007
 The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Market Humor
Stock Indexes Update
Stock Picks for the Week
Web Connoisseur's Top Ten List

Investing humor, ten reasons why investing is like having sex.

10) Some like it long, some like it short.

9) You can study the market as much as you like, but it all comes down to luck.

8) Those who talk about it the most, have the least experience.

7) One simple mistake could lead to 18 unprofitable years.

6) Some prefer to sit back and watch it grow.

5) Terms include swing trading, asset turnover, naked call, after hours, insider trading, silent partner, blind entries, 30-day wash rule, straddle, triangles, descending tops, ascending bottoms, pump and dump, partial surrender, stop order, position limit, voluntary liquidation, and explicit interest.

4) Low confidence can keep you out of the market.

3) Everyone tends to focus on performance.

2) Some do it alone, others do it with a group, and some hire professionals.

and the number one reason....

1) Some positions are better than others and the best position is always up for debate!

And remember, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


Updates on last week's mentions

1) UTSI - Went short at 8.98 with a stop at 9.38.

Stock closed Friday at 8.70.

2) ACOR - Went short at 15.63 and got stopped out at 16.50 for a loss of $101 per 100 shares including commission.

3) COMS - Stock did not get to either of my entry points for instituting a short position.

4) XING - Never has gotten close to my entry level for a short. Still waiting.

5) ANGO - Purchased first position at 24.85 and second position at 24.09 - Averaged at 24.47.

Stock closed at 24.64 on Friday.


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View Jan 8, 2007 Newsletter
Chart Analysis

Dow Jones - Friday Close 12556

Stock indexes have interchanged positions.

Based on this week's action it is becoming evident that the NASDAQ is now taking on the leading role among the stock indexes. This past week the NASDAQ made new 5-year highs while both the DOW and the S&P500 fell just a little short. In addition, the chart on the NASDAQ has turned very positive while the other indexes continue to show some topping out action.

Due to the fact that the DOW was able to overcome the 12500-12529 resistance level, the spike high up to 12581 is now in jeopardy of being taken out. It is now reasonable to assume that the DOW and S&P 500 will also make new highs this coming week.

The NASDAQ is not yet showing any topping out action as it has broken out of a flag formation and will likely continue to be the leader to the upside. The breakout from the flag projects at least up to the 2544 level. This likely means we will see other indexes make new highs as well, at least by a few points.

The DOW, though, continues to show that it is struggling to continue the straight-up 6-month trend and it is my belief that sometime over the next 4 weeks a strong mid-term top will be seen. In 2003/2004, the most comparable years to 2006/2007, the DOW was only able to rally 130 points from the high made in the first week of January to the top made in the 3rd week in February. At that moment the DOW started a correction which took it down close to 600 points by the end of March and an additional 300 points by the end of October.

Levels to look at: NASDAQ With the breakout from the flag formation 2460-2470 now becomes critical to the continued up-trend. Any close below 2460 will probably signify a failure to follow through and will likely bring strong selling. A break below 2390 should take the NASDAQ down to 2342-2316 level and perhaps even down to 2232. On the upside there is no way to gauge its potential other than through the flag projection up to 2544. In addition breaking out of what is called a cup and handle formation does bring up a possible projection of a rally up to 2750-2900 over a period of 6-9 months.

DOW was not able on Friday to get up to and above the previous high at 12581 so that level will continue to be resistance. Even if it is able to get above it I do not believe a strong rally will occur as the DOW has basically gone straight up from 10697 to 12581 and making new highs no longer triggers strong stop loss orders by the bears. Based on the chart up-trend new highs will continue to be met with new selling as well as dry up new buying.

12337 will continue to be a breakdown level for the DOW. Any break below that level will bring heavy selling and will likely generate a move down to the 12070. A break below that will likely take the DOW back to its 7-year breakout level at 11750. On a shorter term basis 12489 will likely become a pivot point on the DOW with a break below that generating an attempt at 12337.

Stocks

CHART Outlooks

Last week I was concentrating on short positions due to the fact that I was looking at a corrective phase in the indexes to begin. Due to the fact that it looks like this week will be an up week in the indexes I will concentrate on a variety of stocks with outlooks that do not have a special bearing with the indexes.

ANGO (Friday close 24.69)

ANGO has a chart formation that is extremely bullish. To begin with, on 8/11/2006, the stock gapped down from 20.69 to 19.02 (traded as low as 15.22 during the next few weeks) and then on Sep 25/2006 the stock gapped up from 19.34 to 19.98. That left what is called an "island" formation which is considered extremely rare and one of the strongest indicators of a major trend change. That gap area was subsequently tested successfully, on 3 occasions, with higher lows each time.

On Jan4/07 ANGO once again gapped up from 22.21-23.14 and while doing so was also able to get above a major resistance high at 24.84 (rallied up to 26.37). Not only was the stock able to get above a strong resistance level but this last gap up can now be considered a "runaway" gap (after the breakaway gap at 19.34-19.98). This gap formation (breakaway/runaway) is also considered a very rare occurrence in charting and is normally the pre-cursor to a strong continuation of the trend.

In essence, we now have an "island" chart formation (which has been successfully re-tested on three occasions), followed by a "breakaway" and "runaway" gap formation signaling a rapid and strong continuation of the up-trend. That is about as strong as it gets.

This past week that gap area was also successfully re-tested with a move back down to 23.70. Though we may or may not have subsequent re-tests of this gap area, it is evident that the chart on this stock has an extremely strong bullish chart formation scenario.

Purchases of ANGO can be started on dips near 24.00. For longer-term players purchasing the stock and using a closure of the gap area at 22.21 as the signal to look for a stop-loss exit strategy looks to be the way to go. For shorter term players you could use the recent low at 23.70 as a stop-loss point placing a stop at 23.64 and looking for a rally above the high at 26.39 up to either 26.75 or 27.28 as short term objectives. Both of those levels are shown to be strong resistance points on the weekly chart.

Ultimately, though, the chart formation now in place, with the "island" as well as the breakaway and runaway gaps, could lead to new 4 year highs above 31.29.

My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

COMS (Friday close 4.09)

COMS (as a short position scenario) looks more of a short-term trade than a longer term one. COMS hit a high of 9.36 on Jan04 and a low of 2.96 on Apr05. After a subsequent short covering rally which took the stock back up to 5.70 on Apr05 the stock has now gotten itself back under strong pressure. After a 7 month range between 5.30 and 4.00 where the 4.00 level now has a triple bottom it now looks like COMS is ready to break and re-test the 2.96 low made in 05.

The recent trading between 3.95 and 4.24 (flag) has now gone on for several weeks and may still take some time before a breakout occurs but using the recent weekly chart we have a very evident inverted flag formation that if/when broken (a print of 3.89) projects down to 3.00.

It is now below all the MA's and broke the 20-day MA on Friday jan7/07.

On Thursday of last week COMS had a rally up to 4.15 which was aggressively sold by the bears. The top of the inverted flag formation is at 4.24, therefore a break above that level could signify that the flag is changing into a different formation (perhaps not as bearish). As long as COMS stays below 4.20 the flag will point to a drop down to 2.96 should it break below 3.95 (3.89 print). Rallies up near 4.15-4.20 can be sold using 4.30 as a stop loss point. Breaks below 3.95 (sell at 3.89 stop) can also be sold or used as a place to add more short positions using a stop loss at 4.30 or lowering the stop loss point, upon the break below 3.90, down to 4.08 as a sensitive strategy. Risk/reward ratio is 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

NENG (Friday close 2.50)

NENG is a long term play (rather than a short term one) as the stock is a slow mover.

NENG has a strong support foundation that has taken over 2 years to build. NENG now has what is commonly called a "rounded bottom" which normally signals a steady/slow but positive change of fundamentals in a company.

Since the low at 1.07 made in Nov05 the stock has slowly been moving up with each subsequent weekly low being higher than the previous one and each recent weekly high being higher than the previous one as well.

This most recent drop down to 2.28 (a week ago) took the stock down to the 50-day MA as well as the 20-week MA and close to the 50 week MA. The 2.28 low has not yet been confirmed as the new weekly support level (1.90 presently has that distinction) but if we are able to get above and close above 2.52 on a weekly basis (perhaps this next week) the 2.28 level will become the major weekly support.

The most recent rally took NENG up to 2.85 and should we confirm the weekly support level at 2.28 it will mean the 2.85 is likely to be taken out.

The major resistance level on NENG is 3.25 from two major weekly tops at that price. Getting above 2.85 will likely vault the stock to test that level and since we already have two weekly tops there, should the stock reach that level a third time it will increase the probabilities of that level being broken. Above 3.25 there is very little resistance until 4.69 gets reached.

Rounded bottoms take a long time to develop and I have no time frame that I can see at this time (could be weeks or could be months) but once a major resistance level is broken, such as 3.25, stocks tend to aggressively rally thereafter in a very short time. Simply said, a break above 3.25 will likely generate aggressive long term buying of the stock.

At this time I would wait for a daily close above 2.52 to consider buying into the stock, if you are not already long. This is specially true if NENG closes above 2.52 on a Friday (weekly close). At that time the stock could be bought using 2.22 as a stop loss point. Objective on this long-term trade is 4.69 (and perhaps higher). Risk/reward ratio, depending on entry point, could be as much as 10-1.

My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

SNDA (Friday Close 21.10

In looking at approximately 20 different stocks I was unable to find many that look bullish but have a well defined support/risk level. SNDA was one of the ones that fulfills that scenario.

SNDA is one of those stocks that is showing a rounded bottom (like NENG does) but over a shorter-term time frame. The rounded bottom was formed from Jan06 through Nov/06 and on the week of 12/1/05 the stock broke out of the rounded bottom and has started a strong weekly rally to the upside. Next objective, up to a minor weekly resistance level and using the weekly charts, is 26.07.

There is presently a double bottom on the daily charts at 20.25 that can be used as a stop-loss point (stop loss can placed at 20.19). SNDA went below the 20 day MA twice while building the double bottom but has now established itself above the 20 day MA once more (during the last two trading days) and looks ready to re-test, and probably go above, the most recent high at 22.60.

Purchases between 20.95-21.10 can be made using 20.19 as a stop-loss point looking for a minimum move back up to the 22.60. A close above 22.34 on a weekly basis (Friday's) will likely generate a move up to the 24.98 -26.07 area.

Risk/Reward ratio on this trade is approximately 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 6.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).

Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed in the Disclosure Statement, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.


 


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