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Issue #175 
May 16, 2010 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Indexes Confirm Break of Support. Downtrend now Likely!
DOW Friday closing price - 10620
The DOW had an important week this past week as a lot of chart factors were resolved, though not yet confirmed. To begin with, the index generated on the daily chart, with the rally up to 10920, what looks like a successful retest of not only the high seen 3 weeks ago at 11257 but the psychological resistance at 11000, as well as the 50-day MA (currently at 10875). After all those retests were accomplished, the bulls were unable to keep the index up and saw an important psychological support at 10700 get broken on Friday, sending the index down to a level that is now considered strong weekly close "resistance" at 10618.
The action was even more significant because the market was awash with good news regarding the Trillion dollars that was being given to help the Euro nations out of trouble. In addition, the job creation numbers from Friday a week ago also gave some support to the DOW. Nonetheless, the failure of the bulls to keep the index above levels of strong chart importance suggests that the bulls have failed and that the index is now not only in a correction phase, but more likely in at least a short-term down trend.
On a weekly closing basis, the previous weekly closing high at 10618 will now be strong resistance. Above that level, there is no resistance until the 18-month weekly closing high at 11204 is reached. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent to strong at 10725, strong at 10897, and major at 11205. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent at 10380, again at 10325/10329 and strong at 10012. Below that level, there is no support until the 100-week MA, currently at 9585, is reached. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 10472, decent to strong at 10380, and decent to strong again between 10282/10318. Below that level, there is minor to decent support at 10230 (200-day MA) and then nothing until the psychological support is reached down at 10,000.
As I said up above, this past week was important and critical for the bulls as they were able to negate the strong down day seen a week ago Thursday and generate a rally that put the entire breakdown of support in question. Nonetheless, when the dust cleared, the bulls were unable to make a concrete positive statement allowing the index to fall back below chart levels that were important to defend, and putting the index back into a strong selling pressure situation.
After a previous week's close at 10380, it looks like the rally this past week in the DOW may turn out to be simply a retest of high weekly close resistance at 10618, prior the strong rally above 11000. That (successful retest) won't be confirmed until next Friday with the bears and the bulls needing a red of green close to decide the status of that level. Nonetheless, having closed on a weak note on Friday at 10620, the index is now in dire need of additional positive fundamental news support to keep the bear traders from trying to test the lows at 9870 made over a week ago. As such, the probabilities favor the bears.
There are still many analysts and traders that are convinced the market is a raging bull and that strong dips must be bought. As such, if there is no "negative" news this coming week, it is likely that much of the week will be spent by the traders trying to determine the direction for the next 4-12 weeks. As such, you could see a lot of backing and filling being done, using the 200-day MA, currently at 10235 as support and 10730 (high seen in May) as resistance. Nonetheless, a negative bias is likely to hang over the market because of the scary 900 point drop seen 10 days ago as well as the failure of the bulls to generate any kind of meaningful close this past week.
The DOW did close in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday, so that probably means that the first direction on Monday will be down, with 10500 being the first objective. On the weekly chart, though, the index ended up having an inside week as well as a close in the middle of the week's range, suggesting the traders are waiting on news to determine if the high or low for the week will be broken (high was 10920 and low was 10386). The probabilities also favor the bears here, if for no other reason than inside weeks usually follow the direction of the previous week's action. The previous week was strongly down.
Expect a choppy week with two-way (red and green) trading using 10500 as a pivot point. Nonetheless, with little economic news due out this week that could help the bulls and the problems with the Euro still being negative at worst and uneventful at best, the probabilities, both technically and fundamentally, favor the downside.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 2346
The NASDAQ, like the other indexes, also tested the 50-day MA as well as the previous high, successfully this past week, suggesting that further upside is unlikely to happen without some strong fundamental help. In addition, the index managed to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, contrary to the DOW, and that will likely put the index this coming week, at the forefront of whatever is decided.
The NASDAQ, on an intra-week basis, got back down to the area (2326) that was strong resistance in January, and from which, when broken, the index generated a strong rally that took it to the 2535 22-month high. The index saw a low this past week at 2324, setting up the possibility that a lower low this coming week than last week, will bring in new and strong selling. This is especially important when considering that the 100-day MA is currently at 2333, giving that area added importance.
On a weekly closing basis, decent to strong resistance is found at 2453. Major resistance is found at 2529/2530. On a daily closing basis, strong resistance is now found at 2425 (recent high daily close and 50-day MA). Above that level, there is resistance until the 2499 to 2530 level is reached where resistance is major. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 2266 and again at 2239. Strong support is found at 2210/2212 from a previous weekly low close as well as from the 200-week MA. Below that, there is only minor to decent support at 2141. On a daily closing basis, support is minor to decent at the 2317-2333 level from previous high daily closes as well as from the 100-day MA. Below that, support is strong at 2266 and again at 2200.
The NASDAQ now shows a possible breakaway gap between 2472 and 2466, and a possible runaway gap from Friday's action between 2388 and 2375. That formation will get added strength if the index gets below Friday's low at 2324 on Monday, as such a break would likely take the stock down to the 200-day MA, which is currently at 2215 (little to minor support below 2324), making it very difficult for the gap formation to be filled. A breakaway/runaway gap formation in conjunction with a successful retest of the highs as well as of the 50-day MA would be powerful and taken quite seriously by all chart traders.
Without a shadow of a doubt, the 2326 level in the chart has to be considered a pivot point for the index. On Friday the selling action took the index down to that price but the traders supported that level enough to generate a 23 point move up by the closing bell. This move up late in the day was likely done due to the risk of some news, like what came out last weekend, coming out this weekend helping the indexes rally like they did last Monday. Nonetheless, if there is no news of that ilk this weekend and with no economic news due out on Monday, the traders will likely go full blast to decide what to do with the index for the week at the beginning of the week.
I see no strong intra-day or daily chart resistance close by, other than the gap between 2375 and 2388. As such, the 2375 level should be considered the resistance to watch on Monday. In addition, on the 60-minute chart, the 50 60-minute MA, as well as the initial high made last Monday when the index gapped up are both at 2375, giving that level some resistance strength and meaning. If that level is not broken, though, selling pressure will increase. Based on last week's trading range (2434 and 2324), if 2375 is the high for the week, you will likely see the index down to the strong weekly close support at 2266 by next Friday.
SPX Friday closing price - 1136
There is no doubt that the SPX was the weakest of the indexes this past week. Not only did the index stop at the 50-day MA, currently at 1174, but it was not even able to break that line intra-day, as the other 2 indexes did. In addition, the weekly close on Friday was lower than the previous weekly high close at 1145, contrary to the DOW closing exactly at the previous close (10618) and the NASDAQ actually closing above its level (2317). The weakness was likely due to the bulk of the worries affecting the market being in the financial community, thus affecting the SPX more than the other indexes.
The SPX was also the only index that closed "below" the 100-day MA on Friday (currently at 1142). As such, the index is now in a situation where an unchanged close on Monday will actually be considered a strong negative as it will confirm the break of the MA. Having closed only 10 points above the week's low, and with no support until the 200-day MA, currently at 1100, is reached, the probabilities strongly favor downside follow through.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 1145. Above that level, there is no resistance until 1217 is reached. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong between 1147 and 1150 and again at the high daily close, seen this past week, at 1172. Above that level there is no resistance of consequence until 1200-1217 is reached. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 1066 and strong again at 1040/1045. Below that level, support will be found at the 100-week MA at 1030. On a daily closing basis, no support until decent support is found at 1111. Below that, decent support is found at the 200-day MA at 1100 as well.
The SPX is leading the way to the downside as the problems worrying the market are mostly financial. It is important to note that a week ago Sunday, the European financial community decided to make $1 Trillion dollars available to the countries that are having economic problems. The amount was in excess of what was expected and did generate a strong move up on Monday. Nonetheless, it is being said that even that amount may not be sufficient to stem the tide and the action late in the weeks seems to support that idea.
The SPX showed spike down action on Friday and a close near the lows of the day and of the week on Friday. With little support until 1100 is reached and now likely strong resistance between 1147 and 1150, the probabilities of a trading range this coming week between those 2 levels is high. Based on the spike, if the index is able to get above 1150 some of the selling pressure will be relieved. By the same token, a drop below last week's low at 1126 will likely bring in additional selling and the bulls will be in a defensive mode trying to protect the index from breaking, rather than attempting to rally.
It seems evident that the "powers-that-be" are pulling out all the stops they can come up with to keep the indexes afloat. With financial problems arising in Europe, the European Financial community offered a support package of $1 Trillion dollars to help the countries in trouble get out of a default scenario. Nonetheless, even that more-than-expected amount was deemed to be insufficient in some circles and the initial euphoria of the assistance package began to wear off as the week progressed, to end up causing the indexes to close below important support levels. The question is "now what?"
As all the possible financial solutions get exhausted, the market is having problems imagining new believable scenarios where a global rally could continue to flourish. The market now finds itself in a precarious situation where any new problem could be a strong negative catalyst that could cause strong profit taking to occur as well as bearish sentiment to reappear.
From a chart perspective, the action this past week was deemed to be disappointing. Nonetheless, the indexes did leave the door "slightly" open for good news, having stopped at important levels on Friday. It is therefore, critical to the bulls to find some "new" positives over the weekend in order to defer decisions to another future time when things might be resolved, or at least look more positive. If that good news being sought is not found, it is likely that strong selling will begin to reappear likely causing the indexes to get into at least a short-term downtrend.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The probabilities strongly favor the downside at this time, though it is possible that two-way trading (backing and filling) could be seen this coming week. As such, all mentions will be sales but in some cases it may be necessary for the stock to rally in order to generate decent risk/reward ratios. As such, some of the desired entry points may not be reached. Chasing stocks is not a good option at this time.
SALES
TRV - Friday closing price 50.12
TRV is a conservative trading stock that does not generally have wide swings in price but does react to market conditions in a chart-predictable way, making it a reliable stock to trade when volatility is present. In addition, the stock has recently tested successfully a "major" 10-year resistance area up around $54/55 and is now showing a strong inclination to drop back down to the long-term support area around $45/47 that has been in existence for the same period of time.
TRV closed on Friday at what has been considered the main pivot point over the past 10 years at $50 and if the indexes are heading lower (likely), the probabilities favor the stock heading below the pivot point and spending the next few months trading below that level.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 50.76, minor to decent at 52.06, and major between 53.94 and 54.31. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 50.62, decent between 51.09 and 51.42, and strong up around 52.00. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 49.26, decent between 47.75 and 48.31, and strong down at 44.92. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 49.26, decent at 47.94, and again at 47.29. Below that level there is no support until 44.92 is reached.
TRV just finished spending 4 weeks in Feb/Apr testing the long-term strong resistance up around $54/55 with a rally up to 54.83. The rally failed to generate a new all-time high and toward the end of April the stock broke down below the strong support at 52.00/52.50 and proceeded to drop below the long-standing pivot point at $50, as well as below the 200-day MA over a week ago. The 200-day MA is currently at 50.40 and since the break the stock has been unable to get above that line, on a daily closing basis.
It is evident the bulls have given up at this time on generating new all-time highs and are now trying to keep the stock trading at the long-term pivot point at $50. Nonetheless, with the indexes likely to be getting into a short-term downtrend, it is likely the long-term support between $45 and $47 is now going to be tested.
This past week, TRV got up to 50.82 on 2 different occasions but failed to get above it. With the 200-day MA currently at 50.40, it is unlikely that high will be broken unless the indexes can turn the negatives around this week. As such, that level gives the bears a good stop loss point that is reliable. Having broken the 200-day MA, the stock is now under a short-term bear trend and likely to head down shortly to the next support level which is not found until the 47.02 to 47.95 level is reached. That drop now seems to be a high probability. The 200-week MA is currently down at 47.60 and likely to be good support, at least on a weekly closing basis. Nonetheless, the weekly chart also looks "heavy" and if the 200-week MA is broken, drops down to the 100-week MA, currently at 44.90, could be seen.
The chart of TRV is now tilted toward the downside and the likelihood of $47 being reached is very high. Nonetheless, if the indexes get into a downtrend of consequence (not just a short-term correction), it is likely the stock will head lower and the reality is that below $47, there is no support of consequence until $40 is reached, and therefore there are scenarios where a drop down to that level could be visualized.
Sales of TRV between 50.20 and 50.70 and using a stop loss at 50.92 and having an objective of 47.05, offers a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
V - Friday closing price 77,26
V, and other credit card companies, tumbled on Friday amid a broad industry sell-off after a Senate vote to limit credit and debit card fees came out. As it is, the stock had already given a failure-to-follow-through signal the week before when the stock, after making new all-time highs the first week of March, closed a week ago Friday below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 86.36. With the news of the Senate vote, not only was that failure signal confirmed but a sell signal given.
On Friday, V closed below not only a strong weekly close support at 82.03 but also below the 100-day MA, currently at 81.15, as well as below the 100--week MA, currently at 77.90. A break of this magnitude that is also based on fundamental news has to be taken seriously as a likely change of trend.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 82.03, decent at 86.36 and strong at 88.97. Above that level, major resistance is found at 95.59. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 81.10 from a previous daily high close at that price as well as from the 200-day MA. Above that level, minor resistance is found at 82.65 and decent resistance at 85.99. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 76.36 and then nothing of consequence until the 200-week MA is reached, currently down at 70.00. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 75.76 and then again at 72.78. Below that level, there is no support until decent to strong support is found at 67.76.
V had already began generating sell signals prior to the Senate vote but once that vote came out, the stock gave up the ship totally. The break of the 200-week MA is particularly damaging, especially if confirmed next Friday with another close below 77.90. A break of the 200-week MA could signal a total change of trend, not just from an up-trend to a sideways trend, but even into a down-trend. If that is confirmed, strong selling could be seen over the next few months.
Already, the confirmed break of the 200-day MA, currently at 81.15, as well as of the psychological support at $80, suggests that the stock is heading down to the next psychological support at $70. If the 200-week MA is also broken convincingly, it opens up the possibility of the stock even getting down to the $60 level. Under normal trading circumstances, and without the break of the 200 MA's, it could be expected the stock would rally back up to $86 and perhaps even to $90. Nonetheless, the down-track seen over the past couple of weeks is impressive and therefore must be chased, as long as there is an intelligent and somewhat dependable stop loss area.
The 200-day MA at 81.15, as well as a daily close of minor consequence from November 12th at 81.10 (level that stood up for 4 weeks) gives that level some dependable resistance. Nonetheless, the intra-week high seen on that occasion was 81.97, so the stop loss will need to be above that level. It is evident the stock needs to rally up to and above the $80 in order to give a risk/reward ratio that can be accepted. As such, the probabilities of getting this trade filled will be low.
Sales of V between 79.89 and 81.09 and using a stop loss at 82.07 and having an objective of 70.00, gives a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
SHO Friday closing price - 11.89
SHO is in an industry (hotels) that seems to be under some selling pressure recently and was a stock that Friday made the list of the top 100 price decliners for the day (was #29). It is certainly evident by the increased volatility seen over the past 3 weeks that the stock has likely found a major top and is getting ready to go into a downtrend.
SHO has been on a strong up-trend since March 9th 2009 when the stock got down to 2.02. The stock was sailing to the upside and it was not expected to reach any previous areas of strong resistance until the $15 level was reached, Nonetheless, at the beginning of this month the stock started to see some strong selling coming when it got up to 13.47, and since then that level has been tested successfully, likely giving notice that further upside is not likely to come.
Weekly close resistance is decent at 12.92. Above that level there is no resistance until strong resistance is found at 15.25. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent to strong at 12.76 and very strong at 13.42. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 11.48/11.56 and very minor at 11.12. Below that level, there is no support of consequence until strong support is found at 8.31. On a daily closing basis, support is decent to strong at 11.46 (recent low and 50-day MA) and minor at 11.26. Below that level there is no support until the 100-day MA, currently at 10.15 is reached. Strong support is found down at the 200-day MA, currently at 8.70. Further strong support is found around 8.20.
SHO gapped down on Friday between 12.72 and 12.60 and that gap could be important as it could be the first part of a breakaway/runaway gap formation. Resistance is now going to be decent at 12.26 (high seen April 6th) and it is unlikely if the stock has topped out, that the stock will get above that level. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday and follow through to the downside is expected with a possible immediate objective of 10.84. Nonetheless, if that level holds up, rallies up to the 12.26 level will likely be seen. It is even possible the bulls might even attempt to close the gap between 12.60 and 12.72. Nonetheless, the stock has built the kind of formation that signals that a top is in place, and therefore is a stock to short.
It is evident the main objective will the strong psychological support at $10, but in reality the chart does now show that level to have much support strength. As such, drops down to the $8 level are probable if the stock has topped out and the indexes are heading lower. The 200-day MA is currently at 8.70 and that would be a likely objective.
Sales of SHO between 12.10 and 12.20 and using a stop loss at 13.24 (most recent high) and having an objective of 8.71 will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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| NUAN showed strong volatility this past week, having spiked up on Thursday and spiked down on Friday. On a weekly closing basis, it can be said that nothing was decided, nonetheless, the action of the week has got to be considered negative as the stock failed to follow through on several opportunities for higher prices. Having closed on Friday only 5 points above the previous weekly close, unlike all the indexes that closed higher than the previous weekly close, suggests the bears are more in control now than the bulls. This is particularly important because it can be said the weekly trend is still up. On a daily closing basis, the parameters are now clearly defined with 17.38 being strong resistance and 16.42 being decent support. As with the indexes, the 100-day MA, currently at 16.32, seems to be a pivot point for this coming week, a break and close below that line any day this week, will likely thrust the stock down to the $15 level. The 16.95 level, on a daily closing basis, is now also considered decent resistance and unlikely to get broken. If broken, some of the sell pressure will abate. COO was powerless this past week to generate any kind of meaningful rally to test the break of the 100-day MA, currently at 38.00, that occurred last week. This was especially significant given the fact that the indexes were so strong at the beginning of the week. The stock did not give a further sell signal as it was able to close above the previous daily and weekly close at 35.25, leaving the door open for a positive surprise on Monday if the indexes are able to rally. Nonetheless, any close below 35.25 will generate new selling and likely push the stock down to the 200-day MA, currently at 34.30. Any daily close above 37.27, would likely take some of the selling pressure off, causing the stock to rally up to the $38 level. Chart looks weak. CAL attempted to re-generate the bullish trend when the stock rallied this past week from the previous week's low at 16.29 all the way up to a high of 21.91 ($5 move). Nonetheless, when the dust cleared, Friday's close was only high enough to retest the decent weekly close resistance levels between 20.53 and 20.86 with a close at 20.65. It is important to note that like the indexes, the stock stopped at the 50-day MA, currently at 21.82 and was unable to close above a decent daily close resistance at 21.20 with a close at 21.16. The red close on Friday, has made that 21.16 daily close into a successful retest of that resistance level. The stock did close at the 100-day MA (much like the DOW did) leaving the door open for a rally if positive news comes out. The $20 level continues to be strong psychological support, but if the stock is able to close below the 100-day MA on Monday, drops down to the 200-day MA, currently at 17.50, will become possible, and perhaps even likely. GPS attempted to close the island gap up at 24.29 for 3 days straight with rallies above 24.00, only to see it fail and spike down on Friday to close on below an important daily close support between 23.03 and 23.20. In addition, it can be said that by closing higher than the previous week's close, the stock also tested the resistance on the weekly closing chart at 23.03. A red close next Friday, would make that retest successful. The stock does show decent support on the daily closing chart at the 200-day MA, currently at 21.60 and also on the weekly chart, at the 50-week MA currently at 20.65. Nonetheless, if the stock is unable to generate any movement above 23.36 on Monday, there is no support of consequence until the 100-day MA is reached down at 22.00. Probabilities favor the downside. LEN also had a busy week after dropping down to 16.62 a week ago Thursday and rallying up to 20.10 this past week. Nonetheless, the rally to 20.10 is now considered the second successful retest of the 21.79 high as well as a successful retest of the most recent high at 21.17. The stock did drop down on Friday to the 50-day MA, currently at 18.40, where the stock closed. By the same token, the stock closed below a relatively important daily close support at 18.94 and now looks to retest the most recent and also strong daily close support at 17.49. There is a strong possibility that the stock will drop down close to the 16.62 low seen recently with a drop down to 16.92, which is also around where the 100-day MA is currently at. Nonetheless, a break below 16.62 will likely thrust the stock down to the 200-day MA, currently at 15.33. Intra-day resistance will now likely be decent at 18.93. UTX went up to the 50-day MA and then fell back to the 100-day MA, like the indexes and several other stocks did as well. Nonetheless, the stock also generated a type of island formation having gapped up on Monday from 71.46 to 72.00 and gapped down on Friday from 72.73 to 72.61, leaving the four days between those two gaps as an island. On a daily closing basis, there is good support at last Friday's close at 69.46 but if the 100-day MA, currently at 73.50, is broken there is no support whatsoever between those 2 levels. It can be said that the high daily close this past week was the second successful retest of the high daily close at 76.93 and if the stock closes below 69.46 at any time this coming week, a strong sell signal will be given. Downside objective for the time being remains $65. Any daily close above 73.15 would now be considered a positive. AA confirmed the break of the 50-week MA on Friday, closing below that line (currently at 13.15) for a second week in a row. The stock did get a boost on Thursday when rumors of a shortage on Aluminum came out. Nonetheless, after the initial rally the stock was unable to maintain the upside movement and fell back leaving a bearish looking spike, to close near the lows of the week. The stock finds itself at a decent intra-week support level between 11.87 and 12.26, likely awaiting whatever decisions are made this week in the indexes. Resistance should now be found between 12.66 and 12.80 and if the stock is unable to get above that level intra-week, it is likely the support levels will get tested and even broken, thrusting the stock down to the psychological support at $10. LINE attempted, with the help of a strong index market, to get into the gap the stock left after the earnings report between 26.65 and 25.84. Nonetheless, the stock was only able to get up to the gap area with a rally this past week to 25.79. Nonetheless, when the dust cleared, the stock closed right on the line of the 100-day MA, currently at 25.05 and awaits direction from the indexes this coming week. The $25 level is evidently an important pivot point and therefore it is likely that whatever the indexes do this week that the stock will do the same. The inability of the stock to get into the gap area, though, has to be considered a negative and keeps the stock on the defensive with the probabilities favoring the downside. Any rally above 25.84 will be considered a positive, while a close below 25.00 as well as below the 100-day MA, a negative. SKX went back up to the $40 level this past week and on both the daily and weekly intra-day chart it can now be said that the previous all-time high at 42.40, seen just 3 weeks ago, has been tested successfully. It can also be said that the stock confirmed the failure-to-follow-through signal given last week, closing below 38.80 (previous all-time high weekly close) for 2 weeks in a row. The stock shows some very minor intra-week support at 36.00 but if that level is broken (now likely) there is no support until the 200-day MA, currently at 32.00, is reached. On a daily closing basis, 39.50 will now be considered strong resistance. The 50-day MA is currently at 36.70 and that is likely to be an important pivot point this coming week. If the stock closes below that level selling pressure will increase and likely thrust the stock down to the 200-day MA. JRCC has tried strongly over the past couple of weeks to get above a strong intra-week resistance at 19.40 (18.77 on a weekly closing basis), but now shows 2 failures in a row, suggesting that no new attempts will be made. The 17.31 level, on the weekly closing chart, is an important short-term support that if broken, would likely generate a drop to the strong support down in the mid 15's. Using the daily chart, the stock did give a mini sell signal on Friday closing below a minor daily close support at 18.27. Drops down to the 100-day MA, currently at 17.60 as well as down to the decent to strong daily close support at 17.20 are now likely. Any daily close above 18.75 would now be considered a positive. RIMM rallied this past week up to the 200-day MA it broke below a couple of weeks ago and retested that line successfully, having generated a strong red close thereafter. Nonetheless, the decent daily close support at 64.92 was tested but not broken and therefore the stock still has the door open for a rally if the indexes decide to go up this coming week. Any daily close below 64.92 would be a second signal of consequence that would likely take the stock down to test the decent to strong daily close support at 61.62. There is some intra-day support also at 62.53. Any daily close above 68.27, would now be considered a slight positive.
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1) GPS - Shorted at 23.93. Averaged short at 24.785 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 24.28. Stock closed on Friday at 22.96.
2) UTX - Shorted at 73.19. Covered at 73.35. Loss on the trade of $16 per 100 shares plus commissions.
3) OSK - Shorted at 39.18. Covered at 39.69. Loss on the trade of $51 per 100 shares plus commissions.
4) SKX - Shorted at 38.78 and again at 40.16. Averaged short at 39.47 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 40.28. Stock closed on Friday at 36.89.
5) CAL - Shorted at 21.01. Stop loss at 22.01. Stock closed on Friday at 20.65.
6) CAL - Liquidated at 20.19. Purchased at 17.57. Profit on the trade of $262 per 100 shares minus commissions.
7) RIMM - Shorted at 69.00. Stop loss now at 69.48. Stock closed on Friday at 66.16.
8) LEN - Shorted at 20.46. Stop loss now at 20.10. Stock closed on Friday at 17.41.
9) COO - Shorted at 38.41. Stop loss now at 37.50. Stock closed on Friday at 36.40.
10) UTX - Shorted at 73.64. Averaged short at 74.825. Stop loss now at 74.35. Stock closed on Friday at 71.58.
11) AA - Shorted at 13.49. Stop loss now at 13.34. Stock closed on Friday at 12.36.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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