Issue #41 ![]() October 14, 2007 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Waiting for news!
DOW Friday close at 14093
The DOW got a little bit of a scare this past week when it had a reversal day on Thursday (higher high and lower low and closing in the red). Though no damage was done and a new weekly closing high was accomplished on Friday the DOW gave notice that the breakout and continuation of the bull-trend is still full of question marks.
The new weekly closing high continues to be a strong positive and using the weekly chart alone it must be said that more up-trend should be expected. The objective I mentioned last week (the mid 14200's) still has not been reached and if no fundamental surprises come up this week that objective is still in place.
It is difficult at this time to evaluate the chart as the earnings report period is starting and negative surprises are feared. The trend is up but the mood of the marketplace is cautious and it is likely the trading in the DOW will continue to reflect that feeling.
One good thing is that the support and/or breakdown levels are clearly defined so the downside is somewhat covered. On a daily basis, 13970 to 14000 must be considered major support and on a weekly closing basis, 13907 is pivotal. Any close below those levels will place the DOW on the defensive and the buyers will likely rush to the sidelines. Below that level, the support at 13668 becomes very important and a close below that price will bring liquidations and strong selling by the bears.
For the time being the DOW continues to inch upward with great trepidation.
My personal belief is that the fundamental picture is not strong and that this move up is part of a longer-term corrective phase. At this time, though, I do not have any chart action that confirms my theory and therefore the best that can be done is to play the market with caution.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 2805
The NASDAQ continues its climb up trying to reach the resistance level up at 2875-2892. It too had a reversal day on Thursday but was able to shrug it off on Friday and close on a 7-year weekly closing high. There is no resistance on the weekly chart until the 2868 weekly closing high level is reached so unless there are negative earnings reports that affect the marketplace it is likely that level will be reached soon.
The NASDAQ did have a re-test of the gap area it left a week ago Friday when it gapped up to 2750. The drop this past Thursday down to 2758 was an attempt to close the gap. The gap will continue to be a magnet for the NASDAQ unless it is able to rally and establish itself above the 2900 level.
Like the DOW the NASDAQ is moving up tentatively though it is showing more overall strength than the other indexes.
Please keep in mind that the NASDAQ has left 3 gaps unfilled. The first one is at 2461-2505, the second one at 2684-2690, and the last one a week ago Friday at 2736-2750. This is not an index that has a habit of leaving gaps unfilled and therefore all three gaps are at risk of sustaining closure.
Nonetheless at this time and looking at the current weekly and daily chart it seems that the NASDAQ will continue to try to inch upward toward the resistance area between 2865 and 2893. The weekly chart back in 1999 and 2001 seems to suggest that a trading range between 2893 and 2218 is a possibility. In 1999, after the NASDAQ reached the 2884 level it then corrected back down to 2442 and that seems to be the most likely scenario if this resistance level holds up. Such a scenario would fulfill closure of all the gaps.
On the downside the 2758 low seen on Friday has taken on new meaning. A break of that level will generate closure of the most recent gap and a drop down to the 2720-2725 level. A break below that level will signal a failure and generate a move down to 2670.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1561
The SPX has not been convincing in its attempt to establish a foothold above the previous all time high at 1527 as well as its recent new all time high at 1553. With only a close 8 ticks above the previous high weekly close the index continues to be at risk that any negative piece of news will generate a strong sell signal.
The flag formation that the SPX had a few weeks ago has now disappeared and possible upside objectives are no longer clearly defined. Strong support continues to be seen at 1540. The 20-day MA will also be at that level this week so it makes that support level even more important. The drop on Thursday to 1554 can be considered a successful re-test of the 1553 breakout from the previous closing high but the index is still trading very close to all these important levels even though several weeks have passed since they were broken. Such action must be worrisome to the bulls.
The SPX is the only index with levels of support close-by and might just be the index to watch on the downside for that very same reason.
The indexes at the present time are waiting for more news to decide what to do. The support levels defined above need to be closely watched for possible failure signals, should they come. Upside momentum at this time is likely but limited. It is not a good time to be aggressive on either side of the coin.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Due to the inconclusive short-term trend of the indexes and uncertainty regarding the earnings reports due out over the next few weeks there are few clearly defined opportunities available for trading where a stock has a strong/high probability factor, good risk/reward ratios, and clearly defined stop loss points.
The mentions below are conservative in nature and seem to be plays that should not be affected greatly by the indexes. This particular scenario will likely change soon as this seems to be the "calm before the storm".
UTSI (Friday Close at 4.63)
UTSI seems to have been successful in building a bottom and is now trying to generate an up-trend. On Tuesday it was able to get above the 100-day MA and that break was then confirmed with subsequent closes above the line. There is little resistance above until the 5.77 level is reached and a rally to that level is anticipated, if the support level holds up.
The 100-day MA as well as the 20-week MA are presently at 4.37-4.39 and should prove to be support on dips. The strong support is at 4.00 from the 20-day MA moving up as well as an important previous low on the daily chart. Resistance will be at 5.77 and then again at 7.39 and at this time it is difficult to predict if UTSI is strong enough to generate a rally up to the higher resistance. Nonetheless a rally up to the 5.77 level is quite probable.
Purchases of UTSI at 4.40 or better and using a stop loss order at 3.94 and an objective of 5.77 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. If UTSI is able to get above the 5.77 level and rally up to 7.39 the risk/reward ratio would climb to 6-1.
Based on the charts the rally up to 5.77 offers a rating of 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). A rally up to the 7.39 only offers a probability rating of 5.5.
RMBS (Friday close at 20.70)
RMBS long term weekly chart is now becoming quite clear and it offers a trading range that can be traded with limitation of risk and good profit potential.
RMBS has two very strong resistance levels. The long-term resistance level is 23.50-24.00 and the short-term resistance level is at 22.00. A very evident short-term support level is down at 17.31 and the long-term support level is at 12.20. It is highly probable that RMBS will be trading in one of those trading ranges for the next few months.
Last Thursday's rally up to 21.59 actually accomplished most of the upside potential, on a short-term basis, even though a rally up to 21.80 is still a possibility. At 21.59 the 100-week MA was tested and the stock immediately retreated from that area. There is a double top at the 22.00 level so shorting the stock with that level in mind, as a stop loss area, seems to be the way to go.
It is unlikely that RMBS will be able to get above that level unless the indexes rally strongly but if it does then re-shorting the stock on rallies up to the 23.50 level would be the way to go. The 23.50-24.00 level seems to provide a resistance that will not be broken unless positive fundamental changes to the company are released.
Sales of RMBS between 21.50 and 21.80 with a stop-loss at 22.10 and an objective of 17.50 offers a risk/reward ratio 5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 6.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). If stopped out and the stock re-shorted at 23.50 with a stop loss at 24.10 the rating would climb up to 8.
CEGE (Friday closing price 3.71)
CEGE is a stock that seems to have built a strong support base from which to start an up-trend. For the last few weeks it seems the sellers have attempted consistently to push the stock lower but have failed. A rounded bottom seems to have been built with the left shoulder at 3.35, the head down at 3.22 and the right shoulder at 3.37. A strong support level at 3.48 is in place and a very evident wedge formation seems to indicate that a breakout or breakdown is imminent and the likelihood is to the upside.
CEGE is now trading above all the MA's including the 100-day MA. On the 10-minute chart CEGE is now showing a clearly defined small trading range between 3.70 and 3.75 and a break above 3.75 will generate a move up to the 3.91 level. A break above that level will signal a strong buy signal. The way the stock has held support it seems likely the resistance levels will now be under pressure. There is additional resistance at 4.23 and 4.71 but those two levels need to be considered as minor. Major resistance is at 7.30.
Purchases of CEGE at Friday's closing price of 3.71 with an objective of 7.30 and using a stop loss at 3.16 will offer 8-1 risk/reward ratio. If a sensitive stop loss is desired, it can be placed at 3.42 thus increasing the risk/reward ratio substantially. It is unlikely that CEGE will get below the 3.48 level.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). If CEGE gets above the 3.91 level my rating would go up to 8.5.
ININ (Friday closing price 22.93)
ININ has now broken out of a major 10-year resistance level and has no resistance of consequence above until the $33 level is seen. Breakouts have clearly defined guidelines and therefore offer a limitation of risk if the guidelines are followed.
The 22.26 and 22.42 breakout levels (daily and weekly closes) should now act as strong support and a close below those levels (22.26 on a daily closing basis and 22.42 on a weekly closing basis) should not be seen unless this is a false breakout. Since there is no resistance above the market for at least $10 the risk/reward ratio on this stock is quite strong.
Purchases of ININ between 22.26 and 22.50 and using an intra-day stop loss of 21.19 or a stop-close only stop at 21.84 and an objective of 33.07 will offer a risk/reward ratio of at least 10-1.
My rating on the trade is 7 on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10.
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Updates
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Update on held stocks
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Status and stop loss changes
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NUAN reached the 22.25 level of resistance seen back in 1996 and fell back. Rallies back up to the 22.00 level might be seen this week if the indexes remain strong. The stock is strongly overbought and looks extended to the upside. If the stock fails to get above 22.25 this week it is likely that drops back down to the 19.70-20.30 will be seen. Any close below 19.92 will likely generate a move down to the 17.27 level. A break above 23.00 is needed to keep the rally and up-trend alive. PMCS is experiencing resistance at the 9.25 level. That resistance is clearly defined from previous chart action but should be considered as minor. Recent action on the daily chart suggests that an inverted pennant formation is in place and has an objective of 10.70 if broken (break above 9.27). Support is strong at 8.54. It is possible the stock will continue this week to trade between 9.27 and 8.50 but a break above 9.27 will likely generate strong follow through to the upside. WOLF has a clearly defined daily closing chart with 12.89 on the downside and 13.09 on the upside. With the intra-day drop on Thursday down to 12.62, the downside action should now be over. Nonetheless the stock has not yet been able to give a buy signal yet. A daily close above 13.09 should accomplish that, not only by breaking out of the recent trading area but by confirming a break above the 20-day MA. MWA continues to look strong and a rally up to the 14.62 level is expected. Support should now be found at 13.73. It is likely that when MWA reaches 14.62 it will correct back down to the 13.73 level. Longer term the stock has a strong potential for further upside but for the short term this trading range should be in effect. ININ had a major breakout on Friday closing in new 7-year high ground. Should the breakout be confirmed next Friday with another close above 22.42 the stock should stage a strong rally. It is possible that an immediate $2-$3 rally will occur this week and then a correction back down to this level would come in order to reduce the overbought condition. ININ has a potential to rally as much as $10-$12 before running into new resistance. CRAY seems to be at an important pivotal point. A close above 7.31 would be strongly bullish but a close below 6.69 would keep the stock trading in a sideways fashion with possibilities of the lows at 6.04 being tested PAAS was able to get above a very decent resistance level down at 29.66. Such action has changed the trend of the stock from down to sideways. The 30.58 level, on a closing basis, is now a pivot point. A close above that price will give a buy signal that would generate aggressive buying on dips. Close on Friday was not indicative of what the stock will do short term. Should the stock fail to rally from here it is now unlikely that it will go below 26.36 on a closing basis. Shorts should be liquidated if a close above 30.58 occurs or if a drop down to the low 26's happens. HRB did not do anything of consequence this week. The 100-week MA is currently right at 22.66 and the 50-week MA at 22.26. The close on Friday at 22.49 is right in the middle of that and shows no direction. Support continues to be strong at 21.40 and that is also where the 20 and 100 day MA are currently crossing. With the cross I do believe some action will occur this week. Resistance will continue to be the 100-week MA at 22.66. SNDA failed to get above the resistance level at 40.00 and sold off considerably on Thursday. The close on Friday at 37.25 did provide a failure to follow through on the daily chart as it closed below the previous high close prior to the rally up to 40.00 which was at 37.94. The weekly close chart now has 3 closes in a row within 10 ticks of each other (37.18, 37.29, and 37.25) thus showing that this level is proving to be major resistance on a weekly closing basis. Strong support continues to be the 35.54. The 20-day MA may also work as support and that is at 36.65. A break below 35.54 will be quite short term negative to SNDA. 37.94 on a daily closing basis should now be resistance. ABC seems to be reaching a critical stage in which some strong direction will be defined. The recent trading range, on a daily closing basis, is 46.00 to 44.50, and any close outside of that range will likely generate aggressive follow through. The 50-day MA was tested on the upside this week and it held and the stock continues to trade below the 100-week MA continuing to put pressure on the stock to go lower. Any daily close above 46.15 will be a cause for concern and any close below 44.48 will be a reason to add positions.
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1) PMCS - Averaged long at 7.90. Stop loss raised to 8.40. Stock closed Friday at 8.87.
2) ABC - Shorted at 46.06. Stop loss at 46.60. Stock closed Friday at 45.45.
3) CEGE - Purchased at 3.60. Stop loss at 3.42. Stock closed Friday at 3.71.
4) ININ - Purchased at 18.19. Stop loss raised to 21.19. Stock closed Friday at 22.92.
5) SONS - Averaged long at 7.09. Stop loss now at 5.80. Stock closed Friday at 6.04.
6) PAAS - Shorted at 29.14. Stop loss now at 30.64 stop close only. Stock closed Friday at 30.06.
7) CRAY - Purchased at 6.05. Stop lowered to 6.54. Stock closed Friday at 6.82.
8) MWA - Purchased at 12.24. Stop loss raised to 13.00. Stock closed Friday at 14.18.
9) HRB - Shorted at 22.46. Stop loss is at 22.92. Stock closed Friday at 22.49.
10) WOLF - Long at 13.82. Stop loss now at 12.54. Stock closed Friday at 13.00.
11) SNDA - Shorted at 38.60. Stop loss now at 40.08. Stock closed Friday at 37.25.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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