DOW Friday closing price - 12657

The DOW, as expected, generated follow through to the upside this past week and closed higher than the previous week. The index did attempt to get up to the previous high at 12875 but only got up to 12753 and fell back when the Jobs report came is much lower than expected. Nonetheless, as negative as the report was the index was able to close above the previous week's high in spite of the fact that it traded below that level (12585) intra-day, suggesting that the traders continue to be bullish and feel that the earnings report quarter which starts Monday, with AA reporting after the close, will be positive and support further upside. It is evident, though, that the bulls lost some of the strong momentum that they previously had and now must rely on a good earnings quarter to generate any further upside.

The DOW closed in the mid-point of the trading range suggesting that the traders are ready to move in either direction depending on how the earnings reports come out this week. AA, JPM, C, and GOOG are the main companies reporting this week. Last week's high at 12753 and last week's low at 12539 will be technically important this week as whichever level gets broken will likely generate further movement in that direction.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 12743/12769 and strong at 12810. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 12719 and again at 12760. Decent to strong resistance is found at 12810. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 11858 and the nothing until minor to decent support is found at 11092/11100. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 12356, minor to decent at 12201, and minor again at 12058. Decent to strong support will be found between 11897 and 11937.

In looking at the daily closing chart of the DOW, there are 2 levels of importance that will likely generate further movement of some consequence if broken. To the upside it is the 12810 level that if broken would likely take the index up to the 13000 level. To the downside, the 12356 level is a decent pivot point and support level and if broken, the index would likely take a close look at 12000 one more time. The area in the middle is where most of the action will likely take place this week unless some major earnings surprises are seen. A big surprise is not expected this week as the 4 big companies reporting are not likely to be major market movers. The big guns will be out the following week with AAPL coming out Tuesday the 19th after the close. and GS, YHOO, BAC, WFC, and KO also reporting that day.

This coming week is not likely to be a technical week as the traders will be looking at hard fundamental information to make decisions. Nonetheless, within the trading range mentioned above, which does include some room to trade both above and below last week's parameters, it can be expected that volatility will be seen and that both levels might be broken intra-week as the earnings information comes out. As far as economic information is concerned, there is nothing of consequence until Thursday when the weekly Initial Claims numbers come out as well as Retail Sales and PPI. On Friday, CPI will be given.

From a purely technical/chart basis, if there are no surprises this week in the earnings reports, the DOW is likely to trade down to test the 50-day MA, currently at 12380, or even the 100-day MA, currently at 12310. The Jobs Report on Friday will weigh on the index and that likely means the bulls will need to establish some close-by support levels and the MA's lines are prime candidates for that to happen. As such, the probabilities favor some choppy trading with a slight downward bias this week awaiting the stronger earnings reports that come out the following week.

I would venture to say, if there are no major surprises, that last week's high at 12753 will not be broken this coming week and that a trading range like 12380 to 12660 will be seen. The index should open lower on Monday and drop down to the 12500/12510 level where some minor support is found. The 12500 level could act as a pivot point throughout the week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 2859

The NASDAQ was once again the leader to the upside this past week and came within a cat's whisker of generating a new 10-year daily and weekly close when it closed on Thursday at the previous 10-year daily closing high of 2872 and on Friday just 13 points below that same number. The index continued to be driven to the upside by some of its popular stocks, such as AMZN and NFLX, which made new all-time highs this past week, as well as from AAPL which did get back up to the previous all-time high.

The NASDAQ will likely be the most volatile index during the next 10 days as all of those companies, in addition to GOOG, will be reporting earnings by July 19th, suggesting that where the NASDAQ goes, the rest of the market will likely follow. The probabilities favor the upside as new-all time highs in those stocks suggest that only if there are "negative" earnings numbers will those companies retrace their gains.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 2873. Above that level, resistance is not found until the psychological 3000 level is reached. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong at 2873/2876. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 2764, at 2689 and at 2643. Decent to strong support is now at 2616. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent support at 2814, very minor at 2782, minor at 2746 and minor to decent at 2722. Below that level, there is 2686 and strong support at 2616.

The NASDAQ has now built a triple top on the daily closing chart at 2871/2873 and the probabilities favor that level being broken. In addition, the index did close in the red on Friday but the bulls were able to rally the index to close on the highs of the day suggesting further upside will be seen on Monday. With the triple top being only 13 points away from Friday's close, any sideways to slightly higher movement on Monday will likely cause that level to be broken and the index to make new 10-year highs. It is important to note that several of its main stocks (AMZN and NFLX) have no resistance above as they both made new all-time highs this past week. Though these 2 companies are going to report the following week (Apr 18th and 19th), they do have free chart rein to the upside at this time and unless something negative happens to the overall market this week, there is nothing to stop them from going higher. As such, the index will likely move higher as well.

Though the NASDAQ might also correct down to the 50 and 100 day MA's (both currently at 2760) as the other indexes are likely to do, the NASDAQ does show decent support at 2804 as well as decent psychological support at 2800 and the probabilities favor those supports holding up even if the other indexes are heading a bit lower. In fact, the 2800 level can be considered a pivot point this week as any weakness below that level would likely be interpreted as a failure signal. The probabilities of that happening, at least until the earnings reports come out, is low.

To the upside there is no recent resistance in the NASDAQ close-by that the bears can depend upon. There is some minor resistance at 2892 and at 2914 that dates back to 2001 and 1999, but it is unlikely the traders will be paying much attention to such old resistance levels. As such, if the index is able to make new 10-year highs above 2887, the 3000 psychological resistance level would be the target.

On a short-term basis, the index might hold off from making new 10-year highs until some more earnings information comes out. On Thursday, GOOG reports and since the stock was downgraded this past week, that could act as a short-term brake to the NASDAQ. The probabilities are high that a drop back down to 2804 will occur this week if there is some weakness, which is likely due to the bad Jobs report on Friday. As such, a trading range between 2873 to the upside and 2804 to the downside could be seen the first couple of days of the week.

SPX Friday closing price - 1343

The SPX generated a higher weekly close than last week but by a very small amount (4 points - .03%), underperforming the other indexes. In addition, the bulls were unable to get the index to close above a decent weekly close resistance at 1343, suggesting that at least in this index the traders are not maintaining a strong positive outlook.

The SPX will be receiving several important earnings reports this week with JPM and C reporting on Thursday and Friday respectively and at the beginning of the following week with GS, BAC, and AXP. With the financials still being the weak link in the world's economy, the index is likely to continue to drag behind the other indexes.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 1343 and decent to strong at 1363. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 1356/1357 and strong at 1363. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 1319, minor again at 1279 and decent at 1268. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 1328, minor to decent at 1316, and minor again at 1305. Below that level, support is decent to strong between 1256 and 1268.

The SPX closed above the also decent daily close resistance at 1343 on Thursday but failed to generate the kind of follow through to the upside expected and stopped at the next resistance at 1357, which was minor resistance at the time, and was not even able to test the strong resistance at 1363. The index almost gave a minor failure signal on Friday when it traded below 1343 most of the day but at the end of the day was able to rally to close at that level, leaving the door open chart-wise for either follow through to the upside or a failure signal, based on what the earnings reports show.

The SPX had a small trading range last week of 26 points (1330 to 1356) and closed exactly in the middle of the trading range giving no clues as to what direction will be seen this coming week. Nonetheless, the chart parameters presently in place, with 1343 having become such an important pivot point during the last 10 weeks, are very clear and with this being the index most followed by the traders, Monday's close could give a small clue as to what will be seen the rest of the week. Drops down to the 50 and 100 day MA's, both currently at 1316 are still a high probability, even within the context of the recent uptrend continuing. To the upside, rallies up to the recent high at 1370 are also possible if the earnings reports lean slightly to the bullish side this coming week.

Like with the DOW and the trading range mentioned between 12356 and 12875, based on a daily closing basis, the SPX has the same identical situation with 1316 and 1363 being the parameters. It is likely the index will trade in that range this week but there is a high possibility that due to JPM and C reporting this week that the SPX could be the index that gives a clearer clue that what would be seen in the others, if those reports are out of line. Probabilities favor, though, the SPX trading within that range most of the week and leaving the big decision to the important reports due out the following Tuesday and Wednesday.

The bulls got a strong dose of cold water on Friday when the Jobs report came out surprisingly negative causing the strong momentum that had been building to come to a grinding halt. Nonetheless, the report was evidently shrugged off to a small degree as the traders are still expecting the earnings reports to show more progress than what has been expected to show, perhaps giving this Jobs report the tag of a "one-time shocker".

This week is the beginning of the earnings quarter with AA reporting on Monday after the close. AA has lost some of its luster as a predictor of what the quarter will bring as the low price in the stock during the past 3 years has tarnished that reputation. It is also not a week where a lot of important earnings reports are due out, though there are a few that could start the ball rolling in one direction or the other. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the next 3-4 weeks will likely be a strong determinant as to what the indexes will do the rest of the year as well as whether the possibility of a double dip recession still exists.

The probabilities favor a "vanilla" week with indexes trading within an uneventful trading range until the beginning of the following week when many of the big names report earnings. Nonetheless, there is now a small dark cloud hanging over the market because if the earnings reports confirm what was seen in the Jobs report, strong profit taking and new selling will likely be seen.