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Issue #225 
May 8, 2011 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Failure Signals Given by all Indexes! Correction Period Starting?
DOW Friday closing price - 12638
The DOW had a reversal week making new 34-month highs but closing in the red. The May to October seasonal correction period seems to have begun much like it was seen in 2008 with the index going slightly above the April highs the first week of May and then heading downward. In addition, the previous week's close at 12810 has now become a successful retest of the important 13058 weekly closing high seen in Apr08, especially since the index closed below the also decently important high weekly closing highs seen in Feb07 and Jan08 at 12767 and 12743 respectively, suggesting that a second failure signal was given as well.
The DOW has now likely begun a correction that will likely take anywhere from 2-3 months to find its low and in which a drop of at least 6% to as much as 12% will be seen. This projection is based on previous May/Oct corrective phases seen in those years the index was in an uptrend.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 12810, minor to decent at 12986 and decent to strong at 13058. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 12810. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 12341 and decent at 11858/11893. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 12584 and minor again between 12450 and 12479. Below that level there is minor support at 12263 and again at 12197. Minor support is found at 12058 and strong support at 11613.
On the daily chart, the DOW had an eventful week having made the new 34-month high on Monday, fallen down to the 20-day MA at 12520 on Thursday and then generating a rally on Friday above Thursday's high at 12740 (got up to 12759 on Friday) that will likely end up being successful a successful retest of the Monday's high as the index closed in the lower half of Friday's trading range, suggesting that Friday's low at 12579 will be broken on Monday. Such volatility seen over a period of 1 week also implies that the index has found a temporary top as volatility in an uptrend usually favors the bears.
The 20-day MA, currently at 12520, is likely to be an important pivot point this coming week as that MA has often determined the strength of the trend. If in fact the corrective phase has started, the first clear sign of that will be a close below the 20-day MA. The area between 12450 and 12520 is significant as 12500 is considered a semi important psychological support, 12450 is the previous high prior to the rally up to 12875, and 12520 is the MA. With all these short-term important points on the chart, it is likely that much of the trading this week will be seen there. What the end result of the trading in that area will be, will determine what the index will do the following week.
To the upside, the DOW is likely to have a lot of trouble getting above Friday's high at 12759. The index received positive news on Friday with the Jobs report coming in much better than anticipated, and yet ended up closing in the lower half of the day's trading range and over 100 points lower than the day's high. If the bulls were unsuccessful in generating more upside with a strong piece of good news, it is highly unlikely that they will be successful with 3 days of no economic news of consequence due out. The 12759 high is especially significant as it was above Thursday's high at 12740, which means it can be considered a successful retest of the high at 12875. As such, no further upside is needed, chart-wise.
With most of the important earnings and economic reports for the quarter/month already out, the seasonal tendency likely kicking in, and signs being seen everywhere that the economy is starting to slow down, the probabilities now favor a temporary high for at least 2-5 months having been made and a correction of some consequence starting.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 2827
The NASDAQ had a key reversal this past week having made new 10-year intra-week highs, going below last week's low and closing in the red. The index came close to having a classic key reversal when the index was able to close a few points above the previous week's low at 2813. Nonetheless, having no resistance at all above, the reversal has to be considered a strong failure sign, especially since the index did close "below" the previous high weekly close seen 12 weeks ago at 2833.
The NASDAQ, much like the DOW did test the 20-day MA, currently at 2804, and was able to bounce off of it on Thursday. By the same token, the rally on Friday was only able to get back up near the previous 10-year intra-week high at 2861 with a rally up to 2859 before turning down to close near the lows of the day, suggesting that a successful retest on the daily chart of both highs (the one in 2007 as well as the one seen a week ago) has been made. Any further weakness, below Thursday's low at 2804, will be bearish.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 2873, very minor at 2887 and at 2917. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 2876. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent at 2686 and decent 2643. Below that there is now support until the low 2500's are reached. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 2814, minor again at 2764, and minor to decent between 2722 and 2745.
The failure seen this past week in the NASDAQ is particularly significant, up and above what is seen in the other indexes, as no previous resistance is found unless one goes back to 1999 and 2001. With no chart resistance above, the index had a clear playing field that the bulls were unable to take advantage of.
To the downside, the NASDAQ has a runaway gap between 2802 and 2808 that was almost closed this past week with the drop down to the 2804 level. Nonetheless, having closed near the lows of the week as well as near the lows of Friday's trading range the probabilities of that gap being closed this coming week are high. If that occurs (runaway gap closed), the breakaway gap between 2746 and 2785 will become a magnet.
Psychological support is found at 2800 but if the index does get below the 20-day MA at 2804, as well as closing the gap at 2802, it is likely the 2800 level will not offer enough support to hold the selling back. Support is found at the 50-day MA, currently at 2765, and at the 100-day MA, currently at 2745. Strong support is found at 2705/2706 from 2 previous intra-week lows of consequence at that price. On the weekly closing chart, the NASDAQ does have some minor to decent support at 2765 from the 20-week MA, as well as from a minor previous close at that level. Possible scenario for this coming week would be a drop down to 2745 and a small rally at the end of the week to close at 2765.
With the negative key reversal seen, as well as close near the lows of the week, the probabilities strongly favor more downside. If all of the above does occur, the NASDAQ chart will be giving confirmation of the failure to follow through signal given this past week, and likely thrust the stock into the seasonal correction that is anticipated. Downside objective of the seasonal correction is a drop down to the 2500 level, which would be a 10% correction, this to occur over the next 2-4 months.
To the upside, Friday's high at 2859 and the previous high from 2007 at 2861 will be decent resistance levels, not likely to get broken. On a daily closing basis, the index should have problems closing above 2833. Having closed at 2827 on Friday, the probabilities favor a lot of red and very little green being seen this coming week.
SPX Friday closing price - 1340
The SPX, like the NASDAQ, also generated a key reversal having made new 34-month intra-week highs, going below the previous week's low at 1331, and closing in the red. In addition, the index closed below the previous high weekly close at 1343, giving a failure to follow through signal on the weekly chart that if confirmed with another close next Friday below 1343 would be a strong mid-term sell signal.
The SPX continues to languish as financial problems keep surfacing. This past week the threat of Greece exiting the Euro due to its inability to fulfill the requirements thrust upon it by the European Central bank, strengthened the dollar and put additional stress on the banking industry in general. The problems with the Euro are not likely to go away soon and in conjunction with the economic slowdown expected to be seen worldwide over the summer, indexes such as the SPX will likely feel the pinch more than others not closely related to that industry.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 1363, decent to strong at 1395 and strong at 1425. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at 1363. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 1328, decent between 1276 and 1279, minor at 1236 and decent at the 200-week MA, currently at 1190. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 1335, minor at 1314, decent at 1305/1306, and decent at 1298/1300. Below that level, minor to decent support is found at 1276, and decent to strong at 1256.
Like with the other indexes, the SPX closed on the 20-day MA, currently at 1335, on Thursday. Nonetheless, the index did get below that line intra-day having gone down to 1329, suggesting the MA line is not going to be able to hold up without some additional positive fundamental news. The index was able to bounce up and generate a successful retest of the line having closed at 1340 on Friday but like the other indexes the SPX did close near the lows of the day/week on Friday and follow through to the downside is expected to be seen on Monday, likely causing the index to go below 1329 once again and generating a break of the MA on the close. Support is found at the 50-day MA, currently at 1320 and at the 100-day MA, currently at 1303.
To the upside, Friday's high at 1354 will likely become strong resistance, especially if the index gets below 1329 on Monday. Strong resistance is found at the 34-month high at 1370, but having failed on Friday to get up to that level, and no economic news of consequence due out until Thursday, the probabilities of the index getting above Friday's high are very low.
Decent and important support is found between 1305 and 1306 from 3 previous daily low closes at that level, as well as from the 100-day MA, currently at 1303. Drops down to that level are likely to be seen if the index shows any follow through to the downside, below Thursday's 1329 low. In addition, the SPX has a gap between 1312 and 1319 that will become a magnet giving the bears additional ammunition to push the index down, causing negative momentum to occur.
The key for the week, on a daily closing basis, is definitely going to be the 20-day MA, currently at 1335. Breaking of that line will take away the upside momentum and put the index into at least a sideways trading phase, awaiting further positive news before the uptrend could resume.
The indexes were unable to follow through to the upside this past week in spite of better than expected economic reports. Reversal signals were given right across the board suggesting that the seasonal correction has begun and that the uptrend has likely found a top, at least for the next few months. Commodities got hit this past week as the dollar started to stage a rally, especially when problems for the Euro were uncovered. The "general" feeling of euphoria that had been prevalent for the past few months began to ebb as the indexes started to fail. Few economic reports of consequence are due out this coming week and the important earnings reports are out, giving the bulls little ammunition with which to stage a rally. The entire market seems now poised for the slow down expected to be seen in the summer months.
The indexes all failed to reach upside objectives generated after the previous week's break of resistance levels. A failure to follow through signal is among the strongest indicators of change of mood and all 3 indexes generated such a signal this past week. Seasonal correction in the May to October period has been a consistent staple for the past 15 years causing the indexes to drop between 6-12% during up-trends. Evidence of the beginning of the correction was given this past week. If confirmed this coming week with another red close, traders will likely get on the downside bandwagon. No economic or earnings reports of enough consequence to undo the negatives seen this past week are due out this week. Probabilities now favor the bears.
Friday's high in all the indexes should now be considered decent resistance, especially since the economic news was good but the close was near the lows of the day. If the indexes do get below last week's low this coming week, selling will automatically increase. Support levels of consequence mentioned above are nearby and if the indexes are to continue the uptrend they will need to hold. As such, this coming week is likely to be important and indicative as no clear sell signal has yet been given and will need to be given before traders climb aboard the sell side with any confidence.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Stronger signs that a top to this recent rally has been found were evident this week when the indexes closed in the red and failed to rally on good economic news on Friday. The seasonal trend toward a May to October correction seemingly has started and the probabilities have now shifted toward the downside. In addition, it also seems evident that general selling of everything is being seen as the commodity market also took a big fall.
The mentions this week will all be short positions as the correction, if in fact has started, is in its infancy and good risk/reward ratios are still available. The probability numbers in most cases will not be very high as no confirmation has yet been given that the market is beginning its seasonal correction, but there are enough signs that taking on short positions seems to be the best option at this time.
Some of the mentions will be the same as last week but with updated desired entry points.
SALES
VZ Friday Closing Price - 37.28
VZ broke out of a $26 to $33 trading range back in December after having trading in that range for 27 months. The stock then proceeded to rally up to the $39-$40 area (got up to 38.95) where decent resistance was found. Selling came in and the stock dropped back to test the $33 level from which the stock had broken out of, with a drop down to 33.36.
VZ got a good piece of news on March 21st in the form of a purchase by AT&T of T-Mobile, which is supposed to help VZ compete in its race with AT&T. Nonetheless, even with that good piece of news, the stock has been unable to get above the 38.95 level seen on March 30th and with the indexes likely to start correcting down sometime in the next week or two, the probabilities seem to favor VZ going back down to the $33 level and getting into a $33-$40 trading range for the next few months or longer.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent between 38.47 and 38.84 and decent again at 39.94. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent between 37.67 and 37.85, decent between 38.47 and 38.96 and very strong at 39.32. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 36.91, at 35.85, and at 34.95. Decent support is found at 33.82. On a daily closing basis, support is minor between 36.91 and 37.12. Below that there is minor support at 35.58 and decent to strong support between 34.30 and 34.36.
VZ has mostly been a range bound stock over the years where it gets into a trading range and seems to stay in that range for many months if not a couple of years. With the indexes likely reaching a temporary top at 38.95 and seemingly having tested it successfully with a rally up to 38.42 two weeks ago and now generating a red weekly close, it seems highly unlikely the stock will be successful in breaking above the most recent high at 38.95 or even above the 38.42 level. If in fact the failure signals given in the indexes this past week are correct, the 38.42 level is not likely to get broken any more.
Support in VZ is clearly established between $33 and $34 dollars from a total of 7 previous weekly low closes between 33.63 and 34.66 over the past 8 years, as well as 4 previous high weekly closes in that range during the same period of time. On a short-term basis, VZ shows support at the gap area between 35.84 and 36.37. That gap area was successfully tested 2 weeks ago with a drop down to 36.50. Nonetheless, with the failure to rally this past week and the close near the lows of the week, it is likely the support at the gap area will once again be tested and possibly broken.
Closure of the gap is likely to push the stock down to a very decent support level seen in March of this year, as well as in March 2008 at 33.36 and 33.29 respectively.
Sales of VZ between 37.38 and 37.53 and using a stop loss at 38.52 and having a 33.36 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
UTX Friday closing price - 89.21
UTX generated a key reversal week having made new all-time highs but closing in the red. In addition, the stock may be generating a double top on the daily closing chart as Friday's high was 90.56 and Monday's high was 90.67. If the stock gets below Friday's low of 88.95, the double top will be in place and selling is likely to increase. Having closed near the lows of the day on Friday, as well as in the lower half of the week's trading range ((87.90-90.67), probabilities favor the stock heading lower this coming week.
UTX is a DOW stock and closely mimics what the index does. With both the index and the stock giving signs that a top has been reached, the probabilities of the stock heading down are high. With no support of consequence being seen until the 81.19 level is reached, the sale of the stock at this level offers a very good risk/reward ratio with decent probability numbers.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 89.56. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 90.00. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 85.31, minor to decent at 83.45 and decent at 80.16. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 88.53 and minor again at 86.54. Below that level there is minor support again at 83.85 and decent support at 81.19.
UTX is likely to get into the same 6-12% May to October correction phase as the DOW is anticipated to see, which would mean a drop down to at least the $85 level with good possibilities of getting down as far as $80. The stock is showing an open gap island formation from a month ago between 82.47 and 84.00 that is highly likely to be at least tested if not filled, especially since island formations are extremely rare and most often than not closed.
Having had a key reversal week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, as well as a close near the lows on Friday, the probabilities favor the stock breaking below last week's low at 87.90 and if that happens the previous high at 86.00 would be the first objective, likely to be reached this coming week. On the weekly chart, a break below 87.90 will likely thrust the stock to the October high at 82.50 as there is no support on the weekly chart until that level is reached. Even then that support is from a previous high and therefore not as strong as it could be. Support of some consequence is found on the weekly chart at 81.19 but if broken, drops down to the 77.05 level could occur.
Resistance will be the recent high at 90.67 and based on the potential double top as well as close near the lows on Friday, that resistance could prove to be strong for months to come.
Sales of UTX between 88.97 and 90.34 and using a 90.77 objective and at least an 84.25 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
AKAM Friday closing price - 34.61
AKAM is showing a strongly bearish short-term (2-4 months) chart formation which in conjunction with the indexes possibly having topped out, projects to much lower prices over the next few months. From Nov08 to Dec10 the stock was in a clearly defined uptrend that took the stock from a low of 9.25 to a high of 56.45. Nonetheless, the stock failed to take out the Feb07 high (10-year high) at 59.68 on that rally, contrary to what many other stocks have done (make new long-term highs), and the stock has dropped indicatively since.
AKAM now shows a very bearish breakaway gap between 47.83 and 43.56 seen in February, as well as a runaway gap between 40.22 and 35.83 seen 2 weeks ago, which both came on the heels of disappointing earnings reports. In addition, the stock has built an inverted flag formation from February to the end of April that has now been broken and which projects down to the 27.25 level.
On a weekly closing basis, minor resistance is found at 35.19, very minor at 36.19, and decent to strong resistance between 39.67 and 40.33. On a daily closing basis, minor to perhaps decent resistance is found between 34.96 and 35.17, minor at 38.45 and decent to strong at 40.98. On a weekly closing basis, very minor support is found at 34.43, minor again at 30.13 and decent to strong at 27.00. On a daily closing basis, support is minor 33.46. No other recent daily close (last 12 months) is found below.
AKAM broke and closed slightly below the 100-week MA this past week, currently at 34.90, and in the process broke below the bottom of the inverted flag formation which was at 34.60, projecting a drop down to 27.25. The closest support is the 200-week MA, currently at 30.65, but then again at that level there are no previous lows of consequence, making the support tenuous at best, especially on an intra-week basis. With the indexes also likely to be heading lower, the probabilities of the stock heading lower at this time are high.
AKAM shows decent resistance between last week's high at 35.83 and up to 36.69 as there have been a total of 6 previous highs (7 with last week's high) and one previous low of consequence between those 2 levels over the past 5 years, making that a resistance level of some note, especially with disappointing earnings 2 weeks ago and an index market that seems to be heading lower.
It should also be mentioned that prior to the earnings report AKAM was already having problems going higher as it had moved up to 41.25 and stopped, failing to go above a previous high of consequence from Oct07 at 41.45. Having gone up to that level and not been able to break above it, gives the downtrend even more strength.
As far as support is concerned, the 200-week MA is currently at 30.65, offering weekly close support of some consequence. In addition, the $30 level has to be considered psychological support. Nonetheless, the true support is found in the lows seen in Sep07, Jan08 and Mch08 at 27.75, 25.13, and 27.32 respectively. On a weekly closing basis, those lows can be summed up with a 27.00 weekly closing low seen in Jan08 as the strong support, fitting in well with the inverted flag formation objective of 27.25.
Sales of AKAM between 35.51 and 36.00 and using a stop loss at 37.22 and having an objective of 27.25, offers a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| DCTH continued the recent downtrend having confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 7.20, with a second red close below the line. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching a very important weekly close support level at 6.02 and the bulls were somewhat successful in not allowing the stock to get near that level last week. As such, further downside is expected to be seen but the chances are decent that the support level will hold. Daily chart support starts to be seen at 6.32 and it is likely the stock will get down that low this coming week. The rate of descent has waned in the last 4 trading days giving more strength to the idea that the support level between 6.25 and 6.32 will hold up. The last 5 trading days have all been red closes and therefore any green close at this time, by at least 10 points, would be considered a decent positive. Resistance is decent and important at 7.22. Probabilities favor lower lows than last week but some slight positive action before the end of the week. FCEL broke below a decent intra-week support as well as closed below the 100-week MA, both currently at 1.56, this past week, putting the stock at risk of negating all the gains seen over the past 6 months. Nonetheless, the $1.50 level was originally the area from which the stock fell strongly back in Jun09, as well as rally from last year in December, meaning that there is a decent chance the stock will begin a rally from here once again. The stock broke through the 1.56 level on Thursday and got down to 1.47 but did not get any follow through on Friday, generating an inside day and closing in the green for the first time in 7 days. Unfortunately the bulls were unable to generate enough buying on Friday to negate the break of support at 1.56 or close above 1.63, leaving the stock in limbo and still favoring further downside. The $1.50 level has to be considered a psychological support but the 1.63 level (1.57 on a daily closing basis) will now be decent resistance. If the stock is unable to negate the break this coming week and close above 1.57 and/or rally above 1.63, and further downside below 1.47 is seen, the breakout in December will be totally negated. SVNT received some negative fundamental news this past week causing the stock to negate all of its 4-month base-building and rally process in one fell swoop and make new 22-month lows. The stock tried to negate Thursday's break of support by generating a rally and green close on Friday, but it was unable to close above the previous weekly close support at 9.25 or even stay above the 22-month intra-week low at 9.06, thus putting the stock at risk of further downside. The stock, on a weekly closing basis, does not show any support below until 7.63 is reached and even then that support is from a previous high weekly close, which is considered a minor to decent support at best. The stronger support is found at 6.21. Resistance will now be 9.15 on a daily closing basis and 9.25 on a weekly closing basis. ELON received a positive earnings report that caused the stock to negate the recent weakness and rally back up to the strong intra-week resistance level from December at 10.67 (got up to 10.54 on Friday). On a negative note, though, the stock was unable to generate a close above the decent daily and weekly close resistance at 10.16/10.17 as the stock closed at 10.16 on Friday. Resistance is strong at 10.67 (10.61 on both the daily and weekly closing chart), if able to close above that level, further upside up to the $13-$14 level would likely be seen. Minor but important intra-week support should now be seen between 9.67 and 9.90. The stock did gap up on Friday between 9.14 and 9.67 and that gap should not be closed if this is a true fundamental rally. The stock closed in the upper half of the day's trading range and should see some follow through on Monday. Further upside this week, above the 10.54 level, is a must for this coming week if the stock is to go higher. Drops below 9.67 will now be considered negative. STP continues to wallow in limbo awaiting further fundamental news before deciding which direction to follow. The stock was successful in holding itself above the decent and important daily close support at 8.04 with a close on Thursday at 8.23 and a green close on Friday. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA, currently at 9.00, continues to be important resistance, on both the daily and weekly closing chart, and until broken will keep the stock under selling pressure. It is evident on the chart that any break above 9.00 or below 8.00 will bring additional movement of consequence in that direction. MCD continued its recent uptrend with yet another green weekly close. Nonetheless, for the past 5 days, since the stock first got above 79.00 since December, it has been unable to close the December breakaway gap between 79.21 and 79.90. On Friday the stock did make a new 5-month intra-week high with a rally up to 79.37. Nonetheless, the stock sold off to close near the lows of the day, suggesting further downside will be seen on Monday. If Thursday's low at 78.20 is broken, a small sell signal will be given, likely preventing the bulls from being successful in closing the gap. If that happens, it would be considered a bearish omen that would likely bring in strong selling and a resumption of the downtrend that began on December 8th. Closure of the gap is a must for the bulls as without it, they face the possibility of a runaway gap occurring that would generate strong selling and a $68 objective. ABB had an inside week but a red weekly close that has brought into question whether the stock will continue its breakout or start giving failure signals. Stock shows very minor resistance until the $30 is reached and further upside has been expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the pause this week, due to the weakness seen in the indexes, may cause further downside if the indexes break any further. The recent breakout level as well as the bottom of the runaway gap is at 24.97. Other than previous highs (not generally good support) there is no support at that level. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 25.71 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the previous week's low was 25.29 and there is previous high from September 2008 at 25.26 that should stop any downside if the stock is to head higher. Stop loss orders should now be raised to 24.97 (closure of the runaway gap). JPM generated a red weekly close on Friday putting the onus back on the shoulders of the bulls. Nonetheless, no sell signal was given as the stock was able to close above the most recent low weekly close at 44.68. The stock did close slight above the 100-day MA, currently at 44.90 and another red close on Monday will likely bring in new selling. Decent resistance on the daily closing chart is now found at 45.92. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside is likely to be seen this coming week. If the stock is able to break below last week's low at 43.53, drops down to 40.95 will likely occur. Probabilities favor the downside. UTX generated a key reversal on Friday making new all-time highs and closing in the red. Short-term support is found at last week's low of 87.90, if broken drops down to the previous high at 86.00 will likely occur. Stock shows a potential double top on the daily chart at 90.67/90.56 that will be confirmed as a double top if the stock gets below Friday's low at 88.95. Probabilities do favor that scenario occurring as the stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday (closed at 89.21). A break below 86.00 will likely thrust the stock down to the 20-day MA, currently at 83.00. By the same token, a rally above the recent high at 90.67 would likely bring new buying. Stops should be placed at 90.77. AMZN continued its uptrend with another green weekly close on Friday. The bulls were successful in keeping the stock from showing a reversal week, unlike what the indexes showed, and therefore the probabilities still favor further upside, above the recent high at 203.42. The stock is not always sensitive to what the indexes do. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the lows of the week and the probabilities of the stock testing the breakout level at 191.60 this coming week (189.25 on a weekly closing basis) are high. A rally above Friday's high at 199.56 could re-stimulate the upside and take the stock to new highs. By the same token a break below Wednesday's low at 195.37 will likely thrust the stock down to at least the 190.70 to 191.60 level. Stops should be lowered to 199.76.
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1) ELON - Purchased at 9.41. Averaged long at 9.19 (4 mentions). Stop loss raised to 9.60. Stock closed on Friday at 10.16.
2) DCTH - Long at 5.68. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.41.
3) FCEL - Averaged long at 1.7625 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.52.
4) SVNT - Purchased at 11.47. Liquidated at 9.03. Averaged long at 10.345. Loss on the trade of $393 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.
5) STP - Averaged long at 9.345 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.64.
6) ABB - Purchased at 25.31 Stop loss at 24.97. Stock closed on Friday at 26.05.
7) UTX - Shorted at 90.46. Stop loss at 90.77. Stock closed on Friday at 89.21.
8) MCD - Shorted at 76.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 78.70.
9) MMM - Liquidated at 97.83. Averaged short at 96.665. Loss on the trade of $233 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
10) SGEN - Liquidated at 17.08. Shorted at 16.70. Loss on the trade of $38 per 100 shares plus commissions.
11) SVNT - Long at 9.50. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.83.
12) AMZN - Shorted at 200.79. Stop loss now at 199.76. Stock closed on Friday at 197.60.
13) AMZN - Purchased at 197.35. Liquidated at 198.46. Profit on the trade of $111 per 100 shares plus commissions.
14) AMZN - Purchased at 197.35. Liquidated at 197.40. Profit on the trade of $5 per 100 shares minus commissions.
15) JPM - Shorted at 45.69. Stop loss at 46.17. Stock closed on Friday at 45.04.
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Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. A must have for chart aficionados! |
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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