All mentions this week will be shorts. Nonetheless, since I do expect the indexes to show strength this week and rally, perhaps even somewhat aggressively, the short positions will have entry points that are presently above Friday's closing prices.

SALES

UTX - Friday closing price - 78.80

UTX is a stock in the DOW that has been mimicking the index for the past few weeks and likely will continue to do so this coming week. The stock has generated a rally over the past 4 months of close to 40% and over the past 3 weeks of close to 20% but is now getting close to the all-time high made in Oct07 at 82.50 where some strong selling is likely to be found.

UTX has outperformed the DOW since July of last year rallying over 60% in value while the index during the same period of time has only rallied 42%. This is considered a rare occurrence as the previous 5 years before 2009 the index and the stock tended to move 100% in tandem, and now the stock seems to have outpaced the index to the highest level ever. Reaching such a major resistance level and knowing the past history of the UTX/DOW comparisons, it can be surmised than any weakness at this time would likely affect the stock much more than the index, perhaps to the point of getting back to the old par value between the two.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is major at 80.48. Above that level there is no resistance. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 78.87, minor at 81.20, and major at 82.07. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 74.88, minor again at the 50-week MA, currently at 71.10, and decent between 66.57 and 67.48. Below that level, strong support is found at 64.29. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 77.63, decent at 74.80, and decent to strong at 73.64. Below that level, there is no support of consequence until 69.46 is reached.

UTX has been on a strong rally as of late and has built a small flag formation on the daily chart that if broken (a rally above 79.41) projects an intra-week objective of 82.88. That objective fits in well with the previous all-time high which is at 82.50 making a rally up to that price into not only a retest of the highs but even perhaps a double top. The all time high weekly close is at 80.48 and the psychological resistance at $80 will also factor in to how high the stock goes. Flag formations do not always get fulfilled. Nonetheless, the probability of the stock getting up at least to the 80.48 level is high.

To the downside, UTX will show quite a bit of support around the previous weekly closing high at 76.47. In addition, the stock gapped up right after the last earnings report from 75.69 and 76.54 and that means the 76.54 area will also be considered support. Should the gap be closed, a drop down to somewhere between $74 and $75 would then likely occur. Nonetheless, should that area get broken, drops down to $70 would then be likely. It should also be mentioned that if the stock does begin to show weakness and the bullish gap gets closed, the longer term objective would then likely become the 200-week MA, currently at 65.30.

The probabilities seem to favor a rally above $80 with a good possibility of reaching intra-day or intra-week the 82.50 level. Nonetheless, with the indexes would likely be hitting their upside objectives at the same time and the probabilities of a strong correction occurring thereafter, in both the stock and the indexes, would be high. With UTX having outpaced the DOW for the last year and a half, should such a drop occur, the probabilities also favor the stock breaking down even more than the index.

Sales of UTX between 80.40 and 82.50 and using a stop loss at 83.00 and having an objective of 65.30 would offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).

BA Friday closing price - 65.03

BA has not performed well since the earnings report was released in early November. The stock, just after the report, broke below the 200-day and 200-week MA's and has been unable to get above that level since, in spite of the strong index market. Nonetheless, the index rally has been successful in keeping the stock from breaking down strongly and over the past couple of weeks has generated a short-term rally that probably has a bit more to do to the upside.

BA continues to have a bearish looking weekly chart that suggests that drops back down to the $60 level are highly likely to be seen at some point in the near future. It is also very possible that the resistance level that was in existence from November 2008 to December 2009 at $55, and from which a breakout occurred, could also be tested if the $60 level of support does not hold up.

On a weekly closing basis, minor resistance is found at 66.54 and minor to decent resistance is found at 68.70/68.77. Above that level, strong resistance is found up at 71.27. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 65.41, decent at 66.54, and strong between 71.27 and 71.66. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 64.16 and decent between 62.95 and 63.09. Below that level, there is minor to decent support at 61.15 and the nothing of consequence until 55.80. On a daily closing basis, support is very minor at 64.24, minor to decent at 63.79 and then decent at 62.50. Strong support is found at 60.13.

BA gapped down immediately after the last earnings report came out in the second week of November from 68.83 to 67.69, and subsequently that gap was successfully tested with a rally up to 67.39. Nonetheless, the low made after the report came out at 61.84 has not been broken since and several successful retests of that level have been seen, mainly because of the support from the rally in the indexes. With further upside expected to be seen in the indexes this week, it is likely the stock will go further to the upside with the intention of once again testing the gap area as well as the subsequent successful retest of the gap.

By the same token, if all of that happens, the chart will still look strongly bearish on the weekly chart suggesting that this rally could be its last for the next 3-6 months and that the $60 level, or even perhaps the breakout level at $55, will be tested during this period of time.

Sales of BA between 66.80 and 67.39 and using a stop loss at 67.79 and having an objective of at least 60.00, will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest.

JNPR Friday closing price - 36.49

JNPR has been on a tear for the last 4 months having appreciated in value close to 50%. Nonetheless, the stock is reaching an 8-year high resistance level that is unlikely to get broken at this time, due to the overbought condition that exists as well as from the fact that no close-by support level of consequence has been built that the bulls can rely on and from which a new rally to new 8-year highs could be launched from.

JNPR has been in a sideways trading range between $12 and $38 since 2001 and with the indexes reaching a level from which further upside may be difficult to accomplish, it is not expected that the stock will be able to continue its upward trend, at least not at this time.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 37.12. Above that level there is no resistance until 65.35. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent between 37.09 and 37.14 and strong at 37.65. On a weekly closing basis, support is very minor 33.95 and the nothing until decent to strong support at 29.49. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 35.75, minor to decent at 34.08, and again minor to decent between 33.11 and 33.48. Below that level, minor support is found at 32.50 and then nothing of consequence until the $30 is reached.

Two weeks ago, JNPR broke above a previous weekly close resistance level of minor consequence at 34.70 and proceeded to generate a rally that got up close to the $37 area last week where strong resistance and selling should begin to be found. With further upside expected in the indexes this coming week, the probabilities of the stock getting up to the 8-year high at 37.95 this coming week is high.

Nonetheless, the bulls have not built any kind of support level close by from which buying with limitation of risk could be done. As such, the risk/reward ratios greatly favor the bears, at least for a correction phase. In looking at the chart, the closest support level where buying of consequence would likely be found is down between 28.60 and 30.00.

Being in an overbought condition, facing an 8-year level of resistance close by, no support nearby having been built, and the indexes likely to be within 1-2% of what could be a mid-term high, JNPR offers a trade with a high probability of being successful.

Sales of JNPR between 37.08 and 37.65, using a stop loss at 38.15, and having an objective of 28.60, will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).

HD Friday closing price - 35.10

HD has been in a downtrend since the year 2000 when the stock got up to a high of $70. During these 10 years, every major rally high has fallen short of the previous high and until that changes, the trend continues to be down. The stock is presently getting near the last major high at 37.03 and with the indexes likely to see a major high themselves this coming week, the probabilities of the stock failing once again are high.

HD has been on a mid-term uptrend since Oct08 when the stock made a new 11-years low with a drop down to 17.05. Since then, the stock has been rallying but in April of this year, the stock reached a high with a rally up to 37.03 and a subsequent drop down to 26.62. The 37.03 level has to be considered a pinnacle high in the long-term downtrend and not likely to be broken unless the long-term trend is over.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 35.20 and strong at 36.39. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 35.59, decent at 35.89 and strong at 36.39. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 33.43 and then nothing until decent resistance is found at 31.01. Below that level, support psychological at $30, decent at the 200-week MA, currently at 29.00, and decent again at 27.72. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 33.43, again at 32.89 and then nothing until decent support is found between 30.21 and 30.41.

HD has moved "straight-up" for the past 3 weeks from a low of 29.98 to Friday's high at 35.27. With only one small exception, each day for the past 14 trading days the stock has shown higher lows than the previous day as well as a higher close. The stock is now strongly overbought and reaching long-term levels of resistance where strong selling is highly likely to be seen. If the stock falters at any time now, before breaking above 37.03, an immediate drop down to at least 33.00 and probably 32.00 would likely be seen.

If the long-term downtrend is still in existence, drops down to the $20 could be seen over the next 3-9 months. Nonetheless, for the short-term a drop back down to the $30 is what is likely to be seen if the stock fails here.

Sales of HD between 35.69 and 36.00 and using a stop loss at 37.13 and having an objective of 30.00, will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest.