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Issue #192 
September 12, 2010 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Indexes Awaiting Further Economic News!
DOW Friday closing price - 10462
The DOW had a very uneventful week trading with the lowest volume seen since Xmas week and with the lowest trading range seen since the last week of March. Having a shortened holiday week, an important level of resistance (200-day MA), and a lack of economic news, the traders decided to stay on the sidelines and not participate aggressively until more economic news is available.
The DOW ended up keeping the recent uptrend intact closing higher than the previous week. Nonetheless, the lack of substantial follow through to the strength seen the previous week does suggest that the momentum has waned and that more good news will be needed to generate further upside.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 10451. Above that level there is no resistance until strong resistance is found between 10618 and 10654. On a daily closing basis, resistance is, minor at 10538 and strong at 10699. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 10155, decent between 10012 and 9932, and strong at 9688. On a daily closing basis, minor support is found at 10303, minor again at 10098 and strong at 9986.
It is evident by Friday's close slightly above the 200-day MA and the highest daily close of the week, that the bulls maintain the edge at this time and that further upside is likely to be seen on Monday, mainly because there are no economic reports due out that day. Nonetheless, on Tuesday the Retail Sales number is due to come out and that is a number that is likely to have an effect on the market. Weakness in retail sales continues to be one of the main drags on the economy.
As far as the chart is concerned, there is minor to decent intra-week resistance at 10480 and decent to strong resistance up at 10594. On a daily closing basis there is minor resistance at 10538. By the same token, the 10450/10451 level continues to be decent to strong resistance on a daily closing basis and though the index closed above that level on Friday, it did not close above it sufficiently so as to say the level was broken. As such, Monday's action might still reflect that fact. To the downside, the DOW shows some support at the 100-day MA, currently at 10375 as well as at the 50-day MA, currently at 10300.
With quite a few economic reports due out this week, the action will likely pivot around the 10300 level with 300 point moves above or below that level as the end result. By the same token, with the DOW trading at 10462, it is evident the burden of proof this week is in the hands of the bears and not the bulls. That means that the economic reports have to be disappointing in order to cause the index to get below 10300.
Due to the positive close on Friday, the probabilities favor Monday's action to be sideways at worst or higher. Nonetheless, Monday is not likely to be indicative of anything unless there are some unexpected reports from Europe or Asia. Tuesday and the Retail Sales number, though, will likely set the tone for the week.
One word of caution, though, on the daily chart the formation presently in place can be considered a flag and if broken (a rally above 10480) could give an objective of 10882. Due to the strong resistances above at 10594 and then again at 10720, the probabilities of this formation being realized are small, nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that a break above 10480 could have a domino effect.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 2242
The NASDAQ confirmed the break above the 200-week MA, currently at 2220, with a second close in a row above the line. Nonetheless, the confirmation did not bring in any additional buying of consequence and therefore can still be considered suspect or at best uneventful. In addition, the long-term (10+ years) resistance level/pivot point at 2250 was successful in preventing the index from going higher as the high for the week was 2252.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent to strong at 2288 and again decent to strong between 2310 and 2317. On a daily closing basis, there is decent resistance at 2250, decent again at 2270/2278, and strong at 2306/2310. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 2219, decent to strong between 2141 and 2154 and strong at 2092. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 2200, minor to decent at 2179, and minor to decent at 2173. Below that, there is decent support at 2173, decent to strong at 2114 and strong at 2092.
The NASDAQ did attempt to close the runaway gap that was generated last week between 2200 and 2214 with a drop on Tuesday to 2207. Nonetheless, the gap was not closed, the formation stayed in place, and new 4-week highs were generated on Thursday. By the same token, the index still shows an open gap on the way down at 2262 and that gap was not closed, which likely means the strength shown recently is not all that robust.
The NASDAQ did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside is the most likely scenario this week, at least as far as Monday is concerned. A rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 2272 is certainly possible, and even an intra-week rally up to 2288 where a decent weekly close resistance is located can be seen. To the downside, there is minor daily close support at 2209. By the same token, that support can be considered pivotal as a close below that level would not only give a small sell signal but the runaway gap would also likely be closed, making the breakaway gap down at 2129 a magnet.
Like with the rest of the market, the reports this week starting on Tuesday are likely to have some effect on what the index does for the rest of the month. On the other hand, on a weekly closing basis, the NASDAQ is in a trading range between 2288 and 2154 that means nothing. In fact it is probable the index will trade in that range for all of September, awaiting the next set of important economic reports as well as the third quarter earnings reports that start coming out the first week of October.
The probabilities favor a bit of further upside this coming week with 2272 as the objective. The pivot point for the next few weeks is likely to be 2200.
SPX Friday closing price - 1109
The SPX, like the other indexes, did nothing of consequence this past week. The index did close higher than last week but failed to reach the 1115 to 1121 upside objective suggesting this past week was more of a "pause" week than anything else.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong between 1118 and 1122. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 1136 and decent resistance at 1145. On a daily closing basis, resistance decent to strong between the 200-day MA, currently at 1115, and a previous daily close of consequence at 1118. Above that level resistance is decent to strong at 1128 and then nothing until 1150. On a weekly closing basis, decent support is found at 1065/1066 and strong support at 1023. Below that level there is decent support at 1014 (100-week MA) and decent to strong at 1000 (psychological support). On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 1179 and decent at 1065. Below that, there is strong support at 1047/1050 and strong to major at 1023.
On a daily closing basis, the SPX has now traded for a total of 5 months between 1050 and 1120, with 2 exceptions when the index got up to 1128 and when it got down to 1023. As such, the probabilities continue to be very high that the index will continue to trade in that trading range, especially in a month (September) that is known to be negative. With the index closing at 1109 on Friday, it is unlikely that much more than about 6-12 points to the upside will be seen this coming week. In addition, there is no fundamental reason to believe that at this time the index can establish itself above the 200-day MA, currently at 1115.
The SPX has set up the 1100 level as a pivot point at this time and did trade above that level intra-day for both Thursday and Friday, suggesting that the first course of action this coming week will be a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 1115. Nonetheless, like with the rest of the market, the index will likely begin to work off of the economic reports that will start coming out on Tuesday. Keeping the 1100 level in mind as a pivot point as well as the 1115/1121 as the upside objectives, it should be easy to follow the action this coming week.
To the downside, if the index breaks below last week's low of 1091 selling pressure should increase with 1050/1057 as the main objective. Probabilities favor the SPX trading this week between 1100 and 1115.
Though nothing of consequence happened this past week, the short-term trend remains up. By the same token, the entire market seems to be totally dependant on economic reports and therefore the trend at this time can only be relied on when there are no reports. This is a week with a fair share of economic reports, starting with likely the most important report in Retail Sales, due out on Tuesday. As such, due to the fact that these reports are often unpredictable and the trend is not fully established, it is almost impossible as of this writing to evaluate the probabilities of what the indexes will do this week.
It must be mentioned that in all the indexes over the past 2 weeks the 100-day MA has crossed below the 200-day MA and such a cross over the years has been considered a strong signal of the longer term trend. In the last 5 years it has only happened once to the downside and twice to the upside, and in every occasion the trend for the next 14-24 months was set. The last time it happened to the downside was in January 2008 and the indexes did not go immediately down, in fact they rallied about 6% over the next 2 months before the downtrend became full-blown. Nonetheless, that downtrend lasted 14 months. As such, this is not necessarily considered a "sensitive" signal, but it has been a dependable signal, at least over the past 5 years that I have been able to research.
The high probability at this time is that the reports due out for the next couple of weeks will be generally uneventful and that the indexes will trade sideways, within support/resistance levels. By the same token, it is highly unlikely that any report will be good enough to generate aggressive buying, while it is certainly more possible that a report will be bad enough to generate strong selling. It must also be mentioned that the momentum the indexes obtained last week has dissipated and is no longer a fact. As such, the upside remains more limited than the downside.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Nothing of any consequence happened this past week and only one of the mentions made reached the desired entry point chosen. The other 3 mentions are once again valid for this week, with only a couple of slight changes made. The new mention this week is a sale in a stock that is reaching levels of resistance that should hold the stock back unless the indexes take off to the upside.
Most mentions continue to be sells due the probable downside bias that still remains. Nonetheless, stocks in general are likely to follow their own charts and therefore there are a limited number of stocks that could outperform the indexes during this period of time.
SALES
JNPR - Friday closing price - 28.99
JNPR since January 1st 2001 (81 months) has traded between a low of $12 and a high of $32 for 97% of the time. There was one period of time during the height of the last bull market back in Aug07 to Jan08, where the stock was above the $32 level with a rally as high as $38, but in general during the last 9 years the $30 to $32 level has stopped all rallies. Based on the fact that there is no reason to think that a new bull market is in place, or that the stock itself in on a bull run, it is likely that trend will continue for at least the next few weeks if not longer.
In April of this year, JNPR got as high as 32.16 and upon reaching that level it promptly fell all the way down to 22.25 within a period of 12 weeks, showing that the selling up above $30 remains strong. Based on the recent rally in the indexes, the stock is presently in a rally back up to test the $32 level but it is unlikely at this time that it will be successful in accomplishing anything more than a retest of that high.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 28.89 and strong at 31.65. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent to strong between 28.85 and 28.92, minor to decent between 29.87 and 30.07, and strong at 31.98. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor between 27.00 and 27.20, decent at 25.63, and decent to strong between 24.76 and 25.20. On a daily closing basis, support is minor to decent between 27.20 and 27.60, and decent between 25.63 and 25.90. Below that, support is decent at 23.98 and strong at 22.82.
Since May of this year, JNPR has shown strong resistance, on a daily closing basis, between 28.69 and 28.82. The stock closed a week ago on Friday slightly above that level with a close at 28.99 but did not follow through to the upside this past week. Nonetheless, there are now 6 daily closes between 28.66 and 28.99 that are highly likely to get broken as multiple highs rarely hold up. A break above that resistance will likely take the stock up to test the 3 important intra-week highs between 29.35 and 29.49 seen in the period between Feb and May 2008.
If JNPR is able to get above those 2008 highs, there is an open gap between 30.33 and 30.69 that will become a magnet. On the daily chart, resistance is decent between 30.90 and 31.22 and on the weekly chart going back to 2004, there are 2 previous highs at 30.25 and again at 31.25 that are also considered resistance.
To the downside, the stock now shows decent support between 24.76 and 25.63, as well as having the 100-day MA, currently at 24.51 and the 200-day MA currently at 23.40. It is likely that during the next 4 weeks, at least until the next set of economic reports of consequence are due out, that the stock could easily trade between 30.90 and 25.63.
Sales of JNPR between 29.34 and 29.48 and using a stop loss at 31.32 and having an objective of 24.70 to 25.63 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 4.0 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).
AXP Friday closing price - 40.91
AXP has been building a top formation since November of last year and since April has been using the 200-week MA, currently at 42.10, as a pivot point in the process. The stock recently retested the 27-month weekly closing high at 48.05 with a close 7 weeks ago at 44.79. Soon thereafter the stock fell back down below the 200-week MA and has been giving further signs that a top has been formed.
During the last 9 months, AXP has traded 80% of the time between $37 and $43 and since June 2009, the stock has held firm above the 50-week MA, currently at 40.10. Nonetheless, two weeks ago the stock began to show additional weakness having broken intra-week below the 50-week MA. Due to the rally this past week, the stock was able to generate a rally back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 42.10, which has been a strong bone of contention since January and it is possible that due to the strong close of the indexes and the stock on Friday, that an intra-week rally back up close to the $43 level will be seen this coming week.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong between the 200-week MA, currently at 42.10 and up to 42.67. Above that level, resistance is strong again at 44.79. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 40.97, decent at 41.35, and decent to strong at 42.67. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor support at 40.76, minor again at 39.42 and then decent to strong between 37.66 and 38.41. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 39.57 and again at 39.21. Below that level, there is decent support at 37.71 and again at 36.69.
Based on the late rally seen in the indexes, AXP was able to close above the 200-day MA, currently at 41.35, and should see some follow through to the upside this coming week. Upside objectives include the 200-week MA at 42.10, the 100-day MA at 42.30 and even possibly as high as 2 highs of consequence seen this past year at 43.14 and 43.25. Nonetheless, the financial/banking stocks continue to be the most pressured industry in the market at this time and there is no reason to think that is going to change any time soon. With expectations that a possible short term high (3-4 weeks) will be seen in the indexes this week, financial stocks should be the first to be shorted.
As far as the downside is concerned, the fact the stock has been trading consistently over the past 9 months with an array of lows (more than 5) between 36.60 and 37.26, suggests that a drop down to that area is highly probable.
Sales of AXP between 42.10 and 42.74 and using a stop loss at 43.35 and having an objective of 37.00 offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).
AMZN Friday closing price - 142.44
AMZN has been in a fundamentally inexplicable rally after the stock received a negative earnings report the third week of July. Nonetheless, on a technical/chart basis, the rally can be explained away by the failure-to-follow-through signal that was given just after the report came out. That failure to follow through signal has caused a strong amount of short-covering to occur thus feeding the rally upward.
AMZN is now getting close to the all-time high levels and unless the indexes are able to take off, above and beyond the levels mentioned, it seems highly improbable that the stock will be able to make new all-time highs based on what the last earnings report stated.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong to major at 143.64. Above that level there is no previous resistance. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent resistance at 145.82, minor at 147.11 and major at 150.09. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent at 128.48, minor at 124.69 and decent to strong at 117.39. Below that level, there is major support at 109.09. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 137.22 and then nothing of consequence until decent to strong support is found at 128.04. Below that level, support is strong at 123.39 and again at 119.71.
The bulls have enjoyed an unexpectedly strong rally to the upside, mainly based on much panic short-covering. Nonetheless, the stock is nearing levels where technical trading will not likely carry the stock any farther to the upside and where some strong selling is likely to be seen again. On an intra-week basis, the stock shows strong resistance up at 145.91, minor resistance at 147.17, and major resistance at 151.09.
On Friday, AMZN was able to get up to a previous intra-week high of consequence at 142.58 with a rally up to 142.60. Nonetheless, the stock not only closed above a strong daily close resistance at 142.25 but closed on the highs of the day and of the week, suggesting that further upside, at least intra-week, will be seen on Monday. The next objective would be the intra-week high seen back in December at 145.91 but selling of consequence should start to pick up as the stock gets up to the all-time high weekly close at 143.63.
To the downside, AMZN has left an open gap between 135.21 and 136.45 that should be a magnet as soon as strong selling starts to be seen. The gap does not seem to be a valid gap or one that will stay open unless the indexes take off to the upside, above and beyond what is expected. As such, closure of the gap is the first objective to the downside for this coming week. It should also be mentioned that the recent rally from the $130 level has been straight up, and no support was built during that run, as such, the probabilities of the stock getting back down to the $128-$130 level are high if the stock fails here.
Reaching 145.91 is a definite possibility based on the intra-week chart, but like I said up above, the stock will start seeing selling coming in as soon as the all-time high weekly close at 143.63 is reached. As such, that $2.28 range between those two points is going to have to be looked at as a "necessary" evil if shorting the stock.
Sales of AMZN between 143.62 and 145.91 and using a stop loss at 147.19 and having a minimum objective of 128.12 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest.
PURCHASE
ITT Friday closing price - 45.60
ITT has been in a well-defined downtrend since the stock failed to follow through on a new 20-month high in August at 57.99. The failure to follow through caused the stock to drop all the way back down to 42.05 and in the process to break below the 100-week MA where it has stayed 15 of the last 16 weeks. Nonetheless, with the recent gains in the indexes and the strong oversold condition, the stock is rallying and further upside is expected.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent between 48.53 and 48.59 and strong at 49.51. On a daily closing basis, there is minor resistance at 46.92 and 47.23. Above that level, there is decent resistance between 48.53 and 48.90, and then strong resistance at 50.42. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent at 44.67 and decent to strong at 43.87. On a daily closing basis, support is decent between 44.59 and 44.97, minor at 43.98 and 43.07, and strong at 42.50.
ITT has been in a strong downtrend that is not likely to change to an uptrend at this time. Nonetheless, having found a possible bottom 2 weeks ago, being in an oversold condition, and with the indexes not likely to break down for at least the next 4 weeks, the stock has a strong probability of being in a trading range where some profits can be generated.
ITT has built a flag formation on the daily chart with the flagpole being the 4-day rally seen the previous week between 42.26 and 46.28 and the flag is the trading range seen this past week between 46.28 and 45.21. A break above the top of the flag at 46.28 would give an upside objective of 49.25. Even if the flag formation is not fulfilled, the stock seems to be at least in a trading range between 44.07/44.50 and 48.00 where the bottom of the open gap between 47.97 and 48.96 is located. In addition, the 100-day MA is currently up at 48.00 as well.
ITT shows decent to strong intra-week support between 44.07 and 44.17 from 3 different lows of consequence seen June 8th through July 6th. On a daily closing basis, those supports are between 44.59 and 44.82. At this time, those supports are not likely to get broken.
The biggest question then is, "what is the "desired" entry point and which objective is most likely to be reached?" That certainly differs depending on whether the flag formation holds or not, but with the flag holding up the objective is 49.25 and without the flag the objective is 48.00. As such, with the stock presently trading in the mid 45's, it is evident a buy mention offers some profit either way.
Purchases of ITT between 45.21 and 45.45 and using a stop loss at 43.97 and an objective of 49.25 will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio. Should the stock get below 45.21, the desired entry point would be between 44.56 and 44.62 using the same stop loss but having an objective of 47.97. In that case, the risk/reward ratio is 5-1. The most probable scenario is the latter, but the flag formation is clearly defined and if the indexes show strength on Monday, the flag may be the way to go.
My rating on the trade is a 3.50 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| DCTH continued its upward climb this week closing above last week's close at 6.25. Nonetheless, 50-day MA, currently at 7.00, proved to be good resistance as the stock was only able to get up to 6.95 (2 occasions). The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range suggesting that higher highs will be seen this coming week but once again the 50-day MA could stop rallies. Support on the intra-day chart proved to be decent at 6.38 and it is unlikely that level will be broken this week. Probable trading range for this coming week is 6.44 to 7.00. NTES sustained quite a bit of selling this past week generating a drop down to 37.25 where the open gap was located. Nonetheless, once the gap was closed the buying came back taking the stock back up to re-test the previous intra-day low support that got broken at the beginning of the week at 39.33 with a rally up to 39.28. Evidently the break had some teeth to it as the stock was unable to get above that level, though previous lows are generally not considered strong resistances, to close out the week in the lower half of the week's trading range and suggesting that further weakness will be seen this coming week. Resistance is now minor to decent at 39.28 and support continues to be decent down at 36.76. NOK showed strength all week and then on Friday the reason for the strength was unveiled in the form of a CEO change in the company, suggesting that the company is going to try to address the fundamental weakness that had caused the stock to drop almost 50% in value since March. The stock did give a buy signal on the weekly chart closing on Friday above the previous high weekly close at 9.52. Nonetheless, the stock was unable to confirm the strength as valid when the psychological resistance level at $10 held up in spite of trading above that level intra-day as well as the indexes showing strength. Resistance is decent at 10.38 and support is now decent at 9.64. The probabilities strongly favor the stock trading in that range this coming week, awaiting further news. WFC ended up having an inside week unable to get above last week's high at 26.13 in spite of the strength in the indexes and the close a week ago Friday near the highs of the week. By the same token, the stock traded in a very narrow trading range all week (24.92 to 26.01) and that means that last week's spike type rally was not defused. It is evident that the 100-week MA, currently at 25.90 has become an important resistance on a weekly closing basis, and that means the stock needs help to go any further to the upside. The 50-day MA and previous weeks high, both at 26.13, seem to be the key to this week's trading. A break above that level will likely cause the stock to move up to the next resistance level at 27.50. By the same token, a drop below last week's low at 24.92 could generate a drop down to close the breakaway gap at 23.68-23.76. FSLR confirmed last week's break above the 200-week MA, currently at 135.00, closing higher this week than last week. Nonetheless, the 140.00 resistance level held up well this past week, suggesting that the break of the line may be temporary. On the other side of the coin, the stock did close in the upper half of the trading range and that could mean that the clearly defined downtrend might be over and that the stock may trade sideways for the rest of the month. A break above 140.00 will likely take the stock up to the next decent resistance level at 142.48. If that happens, it is likely the stock will lose, at least temporarily, the downside objectives mentioned in the newsletter and put the stock in a trading range between 142.50 and 122.00. It is likely that as early as Tuesday, the direction of the stock for the next few weeks will be decided. Either way, though, there is more probability of downside than upside over the next few weeks as the 142.50 level is only $4 away from Friday's close while the 122.00 level is $16 away from Friday's close. The stock remains generally bearish short-term no matter what it does this coming week. SNDK went above the previous week's high this past week suggesting that at least a temporary bottom has been found. In addition, on the daily chart, the stock confirmed the break "above" the 100-day MA by not only staying above the line all week but by testing it on Friday. In the process the stock closed an open gap between 36.34 and 36.50 that had no reason to stay open, thus opening the door for further upside this coming week. The stock does have a strong open gap between 39.20 and 40.72 that should be considered resistance but will also be looked upon as a magnet. Having broken an important support on the way down at $40, the probabilities are high that level will be tested before any further action is seen. Minor support is seen at Friday's low and 200-day MA, currently at 36.27. Resistance will be Thursday's high at 38.74 and again at the gap area at 39.20. Probabilities favor upside movement, at least on Monday.
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1) DCTH - Averaged long at 6.263 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.54.
2) AMZN - Shorted at 142.38. Covered shorts at 142.22. Profit on the trade of $16 per 100 shares minus commissions.
3) FSLR - Shorted at 137.38. Covered short at 138.00. Loss on the trade of $62 per 100 shares plus commissions.
4) FSLR - Shorted at 139.53. Covered shorts at 138.22. Profit on the trade of $131 per 100 shares minus commissions.
5) NTES - Shorted at 41.74. Stop loss now at 39.38. Stock closed on Friday at 38.41.
6) SNDK - Purchased at 36.53. Stop loss is at 36.17. Stock closed on Friday at 36.94.
7) SOHU - Covered shorts at 52.05. Averaged short at 48.90. Loss on the trade of $630 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
8) NOK - Purchased at 8.64. Stop loss now at 9.00. Stock closed on Friday at 9.94.
9) FSLR - Shorted at 134.99. Stop loss is at 140.40. Stock closed on Friday at 136.45.
10) WFC - Shorted at 24.84. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.75.
Previous Newsletters
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Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. A must have for chart aficionados! |
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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