This is going to be a week that due to the uncertainty of the economic reports the probability numbers are going to be lower across the board, no matter what stock or direction is chosen. By the same token, the probabilities still favor the downside and sales will have good risk/reward ratios and generally clearly defined resistance and objective points, whereas purchases will not offer clearly defined objectives.

The probabilities are still favoring the bears as the indexes are in a short-term downtrend and economic reports have continued to come out worse than expected, or at best as expected. In addition, the rally seen on Friday, which could have some follow through on Monday, will put several stocks at attractive levels to short. As such, all mentions this week will be sales. Keep in mind, though, that the economic reports, if surprisingly better than expected, could change the scenario in an instant.

SALES

IR - Friday closing price - 33.85

This past week, IR broke below a decent intra-week support level at 33.11 with a drop down to 32.90. Nonetheless, no follow through to the downside was seen, In addition, the stock closed on Thursday at a previous daily close support of consequence at 33.32 and rallied on Friday, setting up a double bottom scenario. In addition, the stock generated a reversal day on Friday with lower lows and higher highs, and closing in the green. All of these factors suggest follow through to the upside will be seen this week.

IR has shown quite a bit of weakness recently, especially after the recent successful retest of the highs. As such, even if a short-term move upwards is seen this coming week, the probabilties of further downside remain strong.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor to decent between 34.73 and 35.24. Above that level, resistance is decent at the 200-week MA, currently at 35.90. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent between 34.87 and 35.08. Above that level, resistance is decent to strong at 36.18. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent to strong at 33.32. Below that level, there is decent support at 31.26 and decent again at 29.70. On a daily closing basis, support decent at 33.32, minor at 31.91, and decent again at 31.26.

If the indexes follow through to the upside on Monday, IR should generate enough buying to take it back up to the 35.00 level where resistance is decent. The stock does have an open runaway gap between 34.66 and 34.33 that if closed, should bring in additional buying. Rallies all the way up to the 200-day MA, currently at 36.00, could be seen. Further resistance from previous highs is seen at 36.40, giving that area added strength.

To the downside, the stock now shows multiple lows between 32.90 and 33.23 over the past 8 weeks that will continue to act as a magnet as long as the indexes don't get out of the recent downtrend. IR does show strong support down at $30 that is going to be difficult to break.

Nonetheless, if the indexes do head substantially lower and give more concrete signs of a Double Dip Recessiion, the possibilities will increase that the stock will break below the $30 support level and head down to test the major runaway gap seen on July 24th 2009 between 24.27 and 25.35. That runaway gap was the main generator of the uptrend during the past 14-months, but if the indexes begin to break down, the original runaway gap is likely to be tested at least.

Sales of IR between 34.83 and 35.24 and using a stop loss at 36.50 and having a minimum objective of 30.00, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4.0 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).

AXP Friday closing price - 40.91

AXP has been building a top formation since November of last year and since April has been using the 200-week MA, currently at 42.10, as a pivot point in the process. The stock recently retested the 27-month weekly closing high at 48.05 with a close 6 weeks ago at 44.79. Soon thereafter the stock fell back down below the 200-week MA and has been giving further signs that a top has been formed.

During the last 9 months, AXP has traded 80% of the time between $37 and $43 and since June 2009, the stock has held firm above the 50-week MA, currently at 40.10. Nonetheless, this past week the stock began to show additional weakness having broken intra-week below the 50-week MA, though due to the late rally in the indexes was able to close above the line one more time.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong between the 200-week MA, currently at 42.10 and up to 42.67. Above that level, resistance is strong again at 44.79. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 40.97, decent at 41.35, and decent to strong at 42.67. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor support at 40.76, minor again at 39.42 and then decent to strong between 37.66 and 38.41. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 39.57 and again at 39.21. Below that level, there is decent support at 37.71 and again at 36.69.

Based on the late rally seen in the indexes, as well as on the close on the highs of the day and the week on Friday, AXP should see decent follow through to the upside on Monday, with a possible objective of the 200-day MA, currently at 41.35 or even perhaps as high as the 200-week MA currently at 42.10. Should the stock be able to get above those levels intra-week, there is additional strong intra-week resistance at 43.14 and at 43.25 from a couple of previous intra-week highs of consequence. It is going to be difficult, and probably close to impossible, to get above all that resistance without the indexes breaking out.

As far as the downside is concerned, the fact the stock has been trading consistently over the past 9 months with an array of lows (more than 5) between 36.60 and 37.26, suggests that a drop down to that area is highly probable. Nonetheless, having broken intra-week below the 50-week MA this past week, suggests that the stock is weakening and having built a strong top formation, drops down to the 100-week MA, currently at 31.20, could be seen if the stock fails to hold the support seen at $37.

Sales of AXP between 41.35 and 42.10 and using a stop loss at 43.35 and having an objective of 31.20 offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the strongest).

FSLR Friday closing price - 128.88

From May 2009 to February 2010, FSLR was in a strong downtrend that started up at 207.51 and finished at 98.71. Since February, though, the stock has basically traded sideways between a high of 152.53 and the low mentioned. Nonetheless, the stock has given signs recently that it may be at the beginning of a new downtrend having tested the 200-week MA successfully after a recent double bottom failed to generate enough buying to get above that very important line.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor at 129.47 and decent to strong at the 200-week MA, currently at 135.30. Above that level, resistance is strong at 139.99. On a daily closing basis, there is Minor resistance at 129.95, minor again at 131.45 and minor to decent at 133.21. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 137.90 and strong resistance at 139.99. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor at 124.52 and again minor at 117.93. Below that level, support is strong at 105.75. Major support is found at 92.81. On a daily closing basis, support is minor at 124.98 and decent at 123.21. Below that level, decent support is found at 113.83 and then nothing until very strong support is found between 102.97 and 103.13.

For the last 20-months FSLR has been forming a clearly defined wedge formation with the bottom of the wedge being the $100 level and the top of the wedge being the $150 level and the declining highs since then. The formation is powerful as it gives a high probability to the downside, and a possible objective of as low as $50. In addition, the downward slope of the wedge also gives a clearly defined stop loss level that if broken, would suggest the wedge is negated. As such, this is a trade with high probabilities as well as high profit potential.

The most recent high of the wedge, as well as successful test of the 200-week MA is at 140.00. The 200-week MA is currently at 135.30 and the stock also shows a previous daily high resistance of consequence at 135.40. As such, it is highly unlikely the stock will get above that level without strong help from the indexes. The stock is showing an open gap between 132.79 and 132.00 that is considered resistance but if the indexes show strength on Monday, or any day of this coming week, that gap should be closed. Nonetheless, it does remain as an obstacle to achieving the best desired entry point into the trade.

To the downside, the stock has repeatedly (over 4 times) traded down to, and slightly below, the $100 level over the past 18 months with the lowest low having been 98.71 seen on February. That level (bottom of the wedge) is likely to continue to act as a major magnet unless the stock breaks out above the $140 level.

Sales of FSLR between 134.90 and 135.30 and using a stop loss at 140.40 and having an objective of $100 offers a risk/reward ratio of 7-1. Nonetheless, getting up to $135 is not a sure thing, so you may want to consider selling stock somewhere above 131.00. In addition, the $100 level is only one possible objective. Should the stock break convincingly below $100, the wedge formation suggests that a drop down to $50 could occur. Risk/reward ratio on this trade is excellent, no matter how you look at it.

My rating on the trade is a 4.00 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

BA Friday closing price - 63.16

BA is a stock that recently failed to follow through to the upside when it broke above the 200-week MA in March and fell back below the line 6 weeks later in April. Since then the stock has tried on two occasions to get above the line, without success. In the process the stock has built a very strong double high formation on the weekly closing chart up at the 68.78/68.70 level.

By the same token, BA has also built a strong support on the weekly closing chart, between 61.15 and 61.90 that suggests the stock is presently in a sideways trading phase that won't be resolved until the indexes resolve their own direction, something that has a high probability of happening this coming week. Nonetheless, staying below the 200-week MA, suggests that the direction will be to the downside.

On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong at 68.78/68.70. Above that level, minor resistance is found at 69.82 and then nothing until 75.13. On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor to decent at the 200-day MA, currently at 64.00. Above that level, minor resistance is found at 65.99 and then nothing until strong resistance is reached between 68.77 and 69.69. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent to strong between 61.15 and 61.90. Below that level, there is minor psychological support at 60.00 as well as minor support at 57.77. Strong support is found at the 100-week MA, currently at 52.00. On a daily closing basis, support is decent at 60.76 and decent to strong at 60.11. Below that level there is minor support at 57.71, and again at 53.44 and strong support at 47.22.

BA failed to establish a beachhead above the 200-week MA, currently at 69.00, and has been "spinning wheels" during the past 3 months between $60 and $69. With the indexes likely to be at a major decision level this coming week, and the probabilities being to the downside, it is likely that BA will do the same and take a leg down to the strong psychological support level at $50 and/or the 100-week MA, currently at 52.00.

Nonetheless, choosing the entry point is the most difficult aspect of this trade as the weekly and daily charts show distinctly different upside objectives for a short position to be done. The daily chart suggests that the 200-day MA, currently at 64.00 will hold and that the recent but minor daily high at 65.24 (last week's weekly high) can be used as a stop loss point. On the other hand, the weekly chart suggests that the stock could go above last week's high and get up into the $67-$69 level. Evidently, for the stock to get as high as the weekly chart suggests, some positive things would have to happen to the indexes this week, and that is somewhat unlikely. As such, the short trade will be mentioned using the daily chart, but the probability rating will not be high.

It must be mentioned that this past week BA broke below the 50-week MA, currently at 61.70, as well as made new 6-month intra-week lows at 59.48, below the previous low of 59.84. The stock was able to close above the 50-week MA as well as negate the break of intra-week support, but weakness was shown that won't likely go away unless the indexes rally aggressively.

It must be mentioned that if the stock is unable to rally above last week's high at 65.24, the probabilities of going below last week's low at 59.48 are high. There is some minor support down at 57.14, but below that there is no support until the 100-week MA, currently at 52.00, is reached.

Sales of BA above 63.90 and using a stop loss at 65.34 and having an objective of 52.00 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 8-1. If stopped out, a new sale could be instituted between 67.26 and 68.77, using a stop loss at 70.40, and having the same objective.

My rating on the trade is a 3.00 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).