DOW Friday closing price - 14922

The DOW was able to generate a green close on Friday, causing the previous week's close at 14810 to become a potential double bottom when matched with the 14799 close seen the third week of June. By the same token, the close on Friday was not impressive as the index traded below the June close at one point during the day (had a low on Friday of 14789) and the close was below the 15000 level, meaning that the green close was not substantial enough to assure the bulls that additional buying will be seen next week.

The DOW did generate a spike low on Friday and a close in the upper half of the day's and week's trading range, suggesting further upside will be seen this coming week. The spike low at 14789 will become a successful retest of the double low built over the past 2 weeks at 14760/14762 if the index is able to get above Friday's high at 15009 on Monday, meaning that the bulls could have some chart ammunition this coming week if that scenario is fulfilled.

On a weekly closing basis, minor resistance is found at 15248, minor to decent at 15354 and decent to perhaps strong at 15658. On a daily closing basis, very minor resistance is found at 14937, minor at 15010, minor to perhaps decent between 15248 and 15254 and minor to decent again at 15318. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent to perhaps strong at 14799/14810. On a daily closing basis, support is very minor at 14810, minor at 14776, and decent and strong at 14659.

Even though the bulls in the DOW were able to salvage a positive close on Friday, the index is still at risk of failing if the Syrian Problem worsens this coming week. The Syrian problem is likely what prevented the bulls from making a short-term statement with a close above the 15000 demilitarized zone.

To the upside, the DOW chart shows minor to perhaps decent daily close resistance between 14960 and 15024 (intra-week up to 15083). Any daily close above the demilitarized zone, or intra-week rally above 15083, would likely stimulate additional buying with 15300 being the objective. On a daily closing basis, the index does show resistance at the 100-day MA, currently at 15140, and at the 50-day MA, currently at 15255, but intra-week and above 15083, it is "open air" for another 220 points. It is highly likely that the index will move up to the 15049-15083 level this coming week but above that will likely be dependent on how the Syrian Problem is resolved.

To the downside, the DOW chart shows some minor intra-week support at 14844/14858, a bit stronger at 14789 and decent and likely short-term indicative at 14760. A break below 14760 will likely cause the index to trade down to the June intra-week low at 14551. Using the intra-day chart though, the 14880 level seems to have become a pivotal support, meaning that on Monday if the traders are still looking for higher prices, the index should not get below 14880 as that would likely made the day traders jump on the sell side.

In looking exclusively at the charts, the DOW should be moving up to the 15300 level off of the action seen this past week. The chart suggests the index may be in the process of building a bearish Head & Shoulders formation and if that is the case, the right shoulder high would likely be somewhere between 15300 and 15340. Nonetheless, the traders are not totally trading the index technically at this time due to the potential scenario-changing event having to do with Syria. As such, the traders will be aware that negative news could change the scenario totally.

Probabilities favor further upside this coming week and a rally up to the 15300 level.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 3660

The NASDAQ had an uneventful inside week but both the bulls and the bears can claim a bit of success. For the bulls, the gap between 3652 and 3629 was closed on Thursday, meaning that a possible bearish breakaway gap was negated. In addition, the rally this past week did generate a second successful retest of the 50-day MA, currently at 3595, also meaning that the index maintains the mid to long-term chart bullish trend. On the other side of the coin, the bears were able to keep the index from breaking above the most recent previous high at 3684, meaning that the recent short-term 4-week downtrend is still intact.

The NASDAQ closed near the highs of the day/week on Friday and further upside is expected to be seen. The index closed slightly above the most recent high daily close at 3658 with a close on Friday at 3660 and if another green close is generated on Monday, especially if the index goes intra-day above 3684, it would mean the recent short-term downtrend is over and that the longer term uptrend will re-start.

On a weekly closing basis, there is decent resistance at 3689. Above that level, there is no resistance found decent but old resistance is found at 3860. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to decent resistance at 3684 and decent to perhaps strong at 3692. On a weekly closing basis, support is very minor at 3587, minor at 3498 and decent at 3357. On a daily closing basis, support is very minor at 3653, minor at 3600 and decent at 3578/3579.

The NASDAQ has the most bullish chart of all the major indexes at this time as it is only .08% from its recent 13-year high at 3689 whereas the DOW is at 4.8% from its recent high at 15658 and the SPX at 3.2% from its recent high at 1709. It is evident that the NASDAQ is the one "beating the drum" right now and that the entire market will probably rise or fall on what this index does, especially with AAPL (13% of the index) receiving lots of buying interest recently, PCLN 21% above its previous all-time high at $762 made just 17 months ago and now testing the $1000 level, and NFLX having reached it's all time high weekly close at 295.14 this past week and threatening to go higher. With so much buying interest in these stocks, in spite of the general economic malaise and problems in the Middle East, it seems that only something truly economically negative would need to happen for these stocks to go down.

The NASDAQ has been trading in a clearly defined sideways area between 3573 on the downside and 3689 on the upside. Any break above or below either one of those levels is likely to generate additional movement, and likely of consequence. With the index closing on the highs of the week and only 30 points from the upper area, it is likely the upside will be seen first this coming week, if the problem with Syria does not escalate over the weekend.

To the upside and the downside, Friday's trading range in the NASDAQ between 3677 and 3618 is now considered sensitive resistance and support as a break above or below either of those levels is likely to generate enough movement in that direction to test the outer areas and likely break them.

As of today's (Sunday) reading of the chart, the probabilities favor the bulls as the uptrend is unbroken (simply paused) and the chart action supportive of further upside.

SPX Friday closing price - 1655

The SPX is leaning more toward the downside than the upside, contrary to what the NASDAQ is showing and more to what the DOW is showing. The index could possibly be building a bearish inverted flag formation as the index has traded in a narrow trading between 1669 and 1627 for the past 3 weeks after having dropped from 1709 to 1627 in the 3 weeks prior to that (the flagpole). The flag formation if broken (drop below 1627) offers an objective of 1587. The SPX did generate a green weekly close this past week and did close near the highs of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside will be seen next week, above last week's high at 1664. Nonetheless, the chart of the index shows decent weekly close resistance at 1667 (previous all-time high) and with the index having traded at that high during the past 2 weeks but not closing above it, it must be surmised that the index will need some fundamental help to go higher.

On a weekly closing basis, there is very minor resistance at 1663, minor to perhaps decent at 1667, minor at 1692 and decent at 1709. On a daily closing basis, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 1663 and decent at 1669. Above that level there is minor resistance at 1685, minor to decent gain at 1697 and decent at 1709. On a weekly closing basis, support is minor to perhaps decent at 1632 and decent at 1592. On a daily closing basis, support is very minor at 1642, minor to perhaps decent at 1630, decent between 1609 and 1612, and decent again at 1573.

The SPX was able to negate on Wednesday the close below the 100-day MA that occurred the previous week. It should be mentioned that Friday's trading range between 1640 and 1682 tested both the 50-day MA, currently at 1664, as well as the 100-day MA, currently at 1642, suggesting that any break above or below Friday's trading range will be meaningful. The probabilities favor the bulls inasmuch as the index was showing a rare breakaway/runaway gap formation until Wednesday when the runaway gap at 1556 was closed, likely meaning that the breakaway gap between 1684 and 1679 will likely be targeted this week, and closed as well.

The SPX, like the DOW, is showing a high probability of a Head & Shoulders formation being in the process of being built. With the left shoulder up at 1687 and the breakaway gap at 1684, it is highly likely that if the index is able to get above the recent high at 1669 that the traders will move the index up to that area to put the index in a position of the right shoulder being built.

To the downside, the SPX has now built a minor double low at 1627/1628 that is supporting this recent move and unless something negative happens this coming week regarding Syria, the probabilities are high that the chart outlook for this coming week will be fulfilled.

Because of the Syrian problem, the bulls have had a tough time generating the kind of short-term buying that the chart suggests should be happening. As it is, the DOW action over the past 6 weeks has strongly suggested that long-term profit taking has been seen and with the Syrian situation possibly exacerbating and generating a faster resolution to the downside, the traders have been reluctant to buy with any kind of confidence, even if the charts suggest it should happen. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor further upside this coming week "if" the Syrian problem does not get worse.

On the economic front, the ISM Index came out better than expected on Tuesday but the Jobs report was disappointing on Friday, causing confusion in the minds of the traders as to whether the Fed will begin to taper the Stimulus program in September or leave it as is. This coming week only Retail Sales (due out on Friday) has any consequence and it is not a report that will affect the Fed mindset in any way, and therefore not likely to have an much of an impact unless way out of line.

It is likely trading this coming week will be dominated by the Syrian problem and whether Congress will agree to a military strike or not. As such, the chart evaluation of the indexes does suggest further upside will be seen but traders will trade the market gingerly and with an open eye on what happens on that front.