Issue #399
October 26, 2014
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bottom of the Correction Likely Found. New Highs on the Horizon?

DOW Friday closing price - 16805

The DOW negated the sell signal given the previous week on the weekly closing chart when the index closed on Friday in the green and above the previous low weekly close at 16493 that got broken the week before. The strong rally of 944 points from the low at 15855 (63%), seen over the past 8 days, suggests the correction is over.

The DOW closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 16805 is likely to be seen this week. The question now being asked is whether the uptrend is resuming or whether the index is still mimicking the 8.8% correction seen in Oct/Nov 2012 that did not stimulate a new high until the following year.

Over the past 2 weeks the DOW has recovered 63% of the 1495 points that had been lost since the middle of September and it should be pointed out that in 2012 the index bounced back from its correction low a total of 76% before a retest of that low occurred. If the same scenario/ratio is occurring now it would mean the index would rally back up to 16933 before a pull back to test the recent 15855 low occurs.

To the upside, the DOW chart shows no intra-week resistance until minor resistance at 16943/16947 level is reached. Further resistance is found 17006, at 17074, at 17099 and between 17139/17151, which is a resistance unlikely to be broken unless the index is resuming the uptrend and making a new all-time high above 17350.

To the downside, the DOW will show minor but short-term indicative support at the 16670/16700 area and a bit stronger at the August low at 16333. Further support is found at the 16000 demilitarized zone and at the low 2 weeks ago at 15855.

The DOW is likely to be in the same correction scenario as seen in 2012 and that would mean a rally up to 16933 and then a minor 3.7% correction down to 16309 before the traders attempt to begin a year-end rally to make a new all-time high in the first quarter of next year. With the action so far seen this year mimicking so closely the action seen in 2012 and the intra-week resistance in the index presently found at 16944 and support found at 16333, it seems almost inevitable that history will repeat.

Expect the DOW to move higher this week with 16933 as the upside objective but then turn around to close in the red next Friday.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4483

The NASDAQ resumed its leadership role this past week with a bang, having rallied 5.1% from the previous week's close, whereas the SPX rallied 3.9% and the DOW only 2.6%. The index taking on the leadership role once again does suggest this rally has some teeth to it, as well as speculative buying interest, and may continue on to make new 14-year highs before it is said and done.

The NASDAQ did close on the highs of the week and further upside above 4485 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, on a negative note, the bulls were not able to close the index above the previous 14-year high seen in June at 4485, even though they had the opportunity to do so at the end of Friday's session, meaning that the bulls still need additional fundamental help to "get it done".

The NASDAQ had the biggest 1-week rally/trading range seen in the last 10 years, having moved up 238 points from the low to the high and 225 points from the previous week's close to Friday's close. It should be mentioned that the previous biggest to-the-upside trading range seen was in October 2011 when the index made a new 13-month low and then rallied 214 points. That rally, which came after a 20.2% correction over the previous 5 months, ultimately (3 months later) generated a new multi-year high which was seen in the first month of the following year. It does suggest this rally could ultimately generate the same end result.

To the upside and on a weekly closing basis, the NASDAQ now shows decent resistance at 4485 and strong resistance at the 14-year high at 4579. On a daily closing basis, the 4485 level is equally important but above that level minor resistance will be found at 4512 and a slightly bit stronger at 4555. Strong resistance will be found between 4593 and 4598.

To the downside, the NASDAQ now shows minor support at 4367 and important and likely pivotal support between 4350 and 4356. Further support is found at 4325 that if broken would likely generate closure of what is presently considered a breakaway gap at 4316.

The NASDAQ is presently showing strong momentum to the upside that will likely increase if the index were to gap up again on Monday above the 4500 level. Such a gap would create a breakaway/runaway gap formation at an important price level that would in turn add strength to the already strong rally seen this past week. Such a formation at this time would have a high probability of generating enough new buying over the next few weeks to make a new 14-year high above 4610 before the end of the year.

It is evident that the NASDAQ finds itself at what is likely a pivotal point for the rest of the year, having closed on Friday at a previously important high weekly close at 4485 that if broken on a weekly closing basis would suggest the 14-year high at 4610 will be shortly tested but if not broken would suggest the traders will wait until next year to attempt new highs again. Simply stated, it is all about a red or green close next Friday, as to what the index will do the rest of the year.

At this time, probabilities favor the bulls after such an impressive run to the upside this past week. The burden of proof is on the shoulders of the bears as they will need some disappointment in the economic numbers or more importantly in the Fed statement on Wednesday to generate a reversal of momentum.

Expect the NASDAQ to see higher prices at the beginning of the week but then it will all depend on the economic information that comes out.

SPX Friday closing price - 1964

The SPX confirmed that the previous week's close at 1886 was a successful retest of the 50-week MA, currently at 1888, that has not been broken to the downside on a weekly closing basis for the past 34 months. In addition, the sell signal given on the weekly chart the previous week, was negated when the index closed above 1906 on Friday.

The SPX closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1965 is likely to be seen this week. Resumption of the uptrend after a strong spike low at 1820 and a 9.9% correction is now a decent possibility, if and when the economic reports this week support continued buying.

The recovery seen in the SPX after the strong selling interest seen just 8 days ago, does suggest the kind of spike low that works like a rubber band, whipping the index as hard to the upside as was seen to the downside, meaning that if follow through of consequence is seen this coming week that a new all-time high will be made before the end of the year. Many analysts have predicted the index will reach 2100 before the end of the year.

To the upside, the SPX will show decent intra-week resistance between 1985 and 1991, minor to perhaps decent at 2011, and strong resistance at the all-time high at 2019.

To the downside, the SPX will show minor to perhaps decent intra-week support at 1925 and then decent support at 1904 which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 1909. Further support is not found until the previous week's low at 1820 is reached.

The big question this week is whether the bulls will be able to regenerate the uptrend and make a new all-time high above 2019 and continue higher to the objective mentioned by some analysts at 2100, by the end of the year. Much will depend on the fundamental news this week but on the chart, the level the bulls must break above is 1991. A break above 1991 will strongly increase the probabilities of further buying of consequence being seen but a failure to get above that level by next Friday will be like a bucket of cold water thrown on the bulls.


The recovery seen in the indexes over the past 8 days is nothing short of amazing, especially since there has been no catalytic news to generate the buying interest. The indexes have been highly volatile as of late and that is not likely to change much at this time, and volatility does not support the bulls as much as it supports the bears. It should also be mentioned that so far the action in the indexes has closely resembled to what happened in 2012, and if that continues, the upside will be limited and the indexes will not make a new high on the year this year.

This coming week will be much about fundamental information as there are over 1000 earnings reports due out as well as economic reports of some consequence, including Durable Goods, 20-city Case/Schiller report and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, GDP Adv on Thursday, and Personal Income and Spending as well as Chicago PMI on Friday. Earnings reports do not include any one catalytic company but on average earnings reports have come out better than expected and if that trend continues this week, it will offer additional support to the bulls.

The most important report this week is likely to be the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday as there is renewed hope that after the strong weakness seen the previous 2 weeks that the Fed will decide to offer additional Stimulus to the economy. If that does not happen, the disappointment will likely be palpable.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Based on the similarities with the correction seen in 2012, the probabilities favor the indexes going higher this week but not making new highs on the year. In addition, with the fact that the lows seen 2 weeks ago have not yet been tested, the probabilities also favor some selling being seen over the next few weeks.

Nonetheless, there is a lot of uncertainty right now so any trades made this coming week will have low probability ratings.

In looking at the charts this week, the stocks that are showing strength are too far away from support levels to make the risk/reward ratios viable. The stocks that have not moved up, do not have high probability ratings of rallying, meaning the only trades that can be considered are sales.

I have found 2 "high Beta" stocks that are likely to generate enough movement in price over a short time and that are likely to mimic the indexes but have additional reasons for being considered potential short-term sales.

SALES

BLK Friday Closing Price - 324.87

BLK doubled in price between May 2012 and December 2013 from $160 to $323 but for the last 12 months the stock has been mostly trading sideways between $292 and $335, suggesting that the stock is presently appropriately valued and that new highs will be difficult to accomplish and only then if the indexes go on to make new highs this year.

When the indexes fell 2 weeks ago, BLK made a new 6-month low at 293.39, but like the indexes has bounced back up to the $325 level and having closed on the highs of the week, further upside is expected to be seen this week.

The probabilities favor BLK continuing to trade sideways for the rest of the year, perhaps even if the indexes go on to make new highs, simply because the stock has traded sideways for most of the year while the indexes were still rallying strongly going into July.

To the upside, BLK shows decent intra-week resistance at 331.90 from a spike high made in July and from which a drop back down to the $300 level was seen. Further resistance is found between $334 and $335 and the strong resistance is found at the $337 level that includes the all-time high at 337.65.

To the downside, BLK will show minor support at 323.37, a tiny bit stronger at $320 and then nothing until minor support at $312 that includes the 200-day MA. Below $312, there is no support of any consequence until the $300 level is reached.

Like the indexes, BLK has not yet retested the recent low at 293.39 and a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 312.00, seems like a high probability, especially if the stock does not generate a new all-time high on this rally. Nonetheless, considering that the stock has visited the $300 level on a multitude of times over the past 12 months, the possibility of a drop down to that level is high.

It is highly likely that BLK will get up to the July high at 331.90 but if that level is broken, it is likely the stock will get up to the $334-$335 level.

Sales of BLK between 331.85 and 334.95 and using a stop loss at 337.75 and having a $312 objective will offer at least a 3.2-1 risk/reward ratio depending on the entry point. With the possibility of a drop down to the $300 level, the risk/reward ratio will increase.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

ADSK Friday Closing Price - 54.45

ADSK made a new all-time high in January above the previous all-time intra-week high made in October 2007 at 51.32 and continued to rally up to a new all-time high at 58.68, seen in February. Nonetheless, since then the stock has traded mostly sideways with a low at 44.76 seen in April and with the $50-$51 level generally being a pivot point during the past 10 months.

ADSK made a new all-time high this month at 58.75 (7 points above the 58.68 seen in February) but then generated a failure signal, having dropped in just 9 days back to 48.38 Should the stock close next Friday (end of the month) below 55.10, it will be considered a negative reversal on the monthly chart that would suggest the high for the year has been seen.

On a positive note for the bulls is the fact that ADSK is now showing a triple top, having seen a high of 58.68 in February, a high of 58.53 in August, and a high of 58.75 at the beginning of this month. The triple top does suggest that at some point the stock will likely make a new all-time high. Nonetheless, with the negative reversal on the monthly chart presently in place, it does suggest the stock will likely continue to trade sideways for the rest of the year and that a new high will not be attempted until next year.

ADSK closed on the highs of the week last week and further upside is expected to be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at 55.25, a bit more at 55.98 and then nothing until the 57.00-57.35 level is reached. Having seen a low this past week at 50.15, the probabilities are high that the stock will continue higher up to the $57 level where selling is once again likely to be seen, as it has been seen all year.

A failure to make a new high on this rally would likely be a big disappointment for the bulls and it would suggest the $50 level would be tested one more time and likely broken, with the stock getting back down to at least the month's low at 48.38 "and" if ADSK does generate a negative reversal on the monthly chart, the month's low would likely be broken and a drop down to at least the $47 level seen.

Sales of ADSK between 56.99 and 57.34 and using a stop loss at 58.85 and having a downside objective of $47, will offer at least a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AKS generated another positive week and having closed near the highs of the week suggests that further upside above last week's high at 7.28 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock will probably reach levels of resistance that are likely to be decisive, inasmuch as both the 200-day and 200-week MA's are both currently at the 7.60 level, as well as an important daily close resistance at 7.58 and weekly close resistance at 7.60. A close above those levels would disaffirm the recent negative action and put the bulls in a position to generate new buying interest to possibly fulfill the $10 upgrade objective. Intra-week resistance is found at 7.75 and then nothing until 8.47. Above 8.47 there is open air until the $10 level is reached. It should be mentioned that the stock is now showing a breakaway and runaway gap formation (5.89-6.10 and 6.47-6.55) which is bullish but also means that the 6.55 level is now considered support. Closure of the runaway gap would likely mean closure of the breakaway gap. Probabilities favor a rally to the 7.60-7.75 level where a decision will need to be made by the traders.

ARNA confirmed the previous week's positive reversal with a second green weekly close in a row. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 4.30 is likely to be seen. The stock will be facing a pivotal week, inasmuch as a green close next Friday would be a small buy signal, while a red close would keep the stock under some selling pressure. A close next Friday above 4.37 would give a failure-to-follow-signal to the downside and would likely generate enough buying interest to take the stock up to the 5.15 level where the 200-week MA is currently at. Support is found at the 3.82 level and there is still a decent possibility of that level being seen, especially if the stock closes in the red next Friday. Nonetheless, any daily close above 4.34 would likely bring in a rash of short-covering and a rally up to the $5 level before any thoughts of testing the lows would be seen. It is a pivotal week that slightly favors the bulls.

CVX generated a green weekly close on Friday, making the previous weekly close at 111.80 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 112.20. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 117.32 is likely to be seen. On a daily closing basis, there is no resistance until minor resistance is found at 118.00-118.10. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, there is no resistance until the $120 demilitarized zone is reached. Further but still minor resistance is found at 121.56. Support is found at 113.68 and then nothing 109.27. Probabilities favor further upside, especially at the beginning of the week, but if the stock gets up to the $118-$120 level but fails to close above 118.10, the probabilities will favor the stock getting back down to the $110 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ENG made a new 8-month daily and weekly closing low on Friday and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.45 will be seen. The stock has been under strong selling pressure during the past 11 weeks, having dropped over 50% in value (from 3.27 to 1.45) and generating 9 or 11 red weekly closes. The bulls are facing an important pivotal week as the stock got down to the 100-week MA, currently at 1.50, and that line has been as pivotal during the past 3 years as the 200-week MA, currently at 2.05, has been. Simply stated, the bulls need to generate a green weekly close next Friday or face new selling pressure, especially if the stock breaks below the 1.32 level on an intra-week basis. The stock shows 6-months of congestion support seen between November and April with support at 1.42 and at 1.32 that should hold up unless there are some negative fundamental changes in the company. Resistance will now be found at 1.65, at 1.74 and at 1.88 that are not likely to be broken at this time unless something fundamentally positive occurs. The earnings report is due out in 2 weeks on November 6th. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 1.42 and 1.65 during this period of time.

FCEL generated and inside week and did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the previous week's positive reversal was not as strong as it could have been and that further downside below last week's low at 1.72 will be seen this week. Support is found at 1.65 (1.68 on a weekly closing basis) that needs to hold up if the stock has found a bottom to this recent drop, but if it does hold up would mean the recent 1.55 low will have been tested successfully. Resistance is now decent and "pivotal" at 1.95 that if broken would suggest the selling pressure has abated and that some recovery is to be seen with the 200-week MA, currently at 2.20, as the objective. Probabilities currently favor the bears as the bulls have not yet shown the ability to make anything positive happen.

FSLR generated a green weekly close (the first in 6 weeks) and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 56.98 will be seen this week. The green close also made the previous weeks low at 50.13 into a retest of the $50 level that is not only important psychologically but also from previous action and that means that level now has additional support strength. Resistance to the upside is not found until 59.44/59.64 is reached, which is a previous intra-week high from March but also the previous low weekly close from May that when broken caused the stock to drop down to the $50 level. The level has additional resistance strength as it is where the 200-week MA is currently at. Rallies up to that level are highly likely to occur but what the traders decide to do at that point is a big question mark. Above the $60 demilitarized zone, resistance on a daily closing basis will be found at the 200-day MA, currently at 63.10, and then nothing until a previous intra-week high of some consequence at 65.99. Probabilities favor the bulls at this time for a rally up to the 59.70 level.

GIGM generated a green weekly close on Friday after the earnings report came out on Wednesday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .88 will be seen this week. The earnings report was as expected but some positive guidance was mentioned and the reaction was generally positive but not to the point that the bulls were able to generate a clear signal that the .75 low is a bottom. Nonetheless, further upside is likely to be seen this week with resistance found at .92 and at .94 and the strong one at 1.00. If the bulls are able to at least get up to the .94 level, a possible negative inverted flag formation will be nullified, which in turn would give the bulls additional reasons to think the downside is over. A rally above 1.00 would now be a decent positive while a break below .75 cents a decent negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week for a rally up to the .94 level.

LEN generated a strong positive week and a close on the highs of the week that suggests further upside above last week's high at 44.05 will be seen this week. The bulls fell short by only 12 points of making a new 7-year weekly closing high, meaning that the traders are still waiting for the economic reports due out this week which do include the 20-city Case/Schiller report on Tuesday morning that is specific to the industry. Nonetheless, the probabilities have now clearly shifted to the bulls as the burden of proof is on the shoulders of the bears, needing negative news to stop the rally. Support is now pivotal at 42.50 that if broken would likely "burst the bubble" of positive feelings that are being seen now. Resistance is at the 7-year intra-week high at 44.40. Stop loss should be at 44.50 but the trade is likely a loser now and consideration should be given to covering the short positions on Monday even if the stop loss is not hit.

OXY generated a green weekly close on Friday, meaning that no additional sell signal was given, as would have been given had the stock closed below the previous low weekly close at 87.57. Nonetheless, the index did get down to 87.62 this past week and having closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, the probabilities favor the stock going below last week's low at 87.62 rather than above last week's high at 91.70. Support is found at 85.90 and at 84.91 that would be seen as a successful retest of the 82.30 low should they be seen and hold up. By the same token, the 200-day MA is currently at 92.25 and until that line is broken convincingly, the bears will continue to have "the edge". The stock is presently showing a bullish breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap between 87.15 and 87.24 and the runaway gap between 88.88 and Thursday's low at 89.21. Closure of the runaway gap would suggest the breakaway gap will be closed. By the same token, a rally above last week's high at 91.70 without closing either gap, would be a bullish sign that would suggest the $95 demilitarized zone will be seen. As such, a sensitive stop loss at 88.88 can be used this week and a re-purchase considered on a drop down to 85.90. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly".

SIGM generated a green weekly close on Friday but the bulls accomplished nothing as the stock needed to close above 4.17 to at least annul some of the negatives generated over the past 3 weeks. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4.03 is likely to be seen. Minor daily close resistance is found at 4.06 and much stronger daily and weekly close resistance is found at 4.17 that if not broken would likely generate a new round of selling and a drop down to 3.50. The chart continues to lean on the bearish side and this is one of the small cap stocks I am likely to liquidate this week. Only if the stock is able to get and close above 4.17 will I consider keeping it. Probabilities though, favor the bears, especially if the stock cannot get above Thursday's high at 4.03 early in the week.

WYY generated a negative reversal week after a secondary stock offering at 1.45 was announced. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that a drop below last week's low at 1.50 is likely to be seen. Downside objective is evidently the 1.45 level at which the stock offering was given. On a weekly closing basis, the 1.45 -1.50 level is considered important support. A daily and more importantly a weekly close below 1.45 would be a decent negative. On a positive note though, the stock gapped down on Friday after the announcement but the gap was closed in a very short period of time, suggesting there is still decent buying interest. The 200-day MA, currently at 1.57, is likely the key to the future as the stock closed slightly below that line on Friday and that line has not been broken for the past 18 months. The bulls must close above the line at some point this week or the traders will turn bearish. Probabilities still slightly favor the bulls but that will need to be proven this week.


1) SIGM - Averaged long at 4.82 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.93.

2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.415 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.47. Stock closed on Friday at 7.12.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.78.

4) WYY - Purchased at 1.63. Stop loss at 1.44. Stock closed on Friday at 1.55.

5) GIGM - Averaged long at 1.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .85.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 2.195 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.48.

7) FSLR - Purchased at 56.23. Averaged long at 62.30 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.44.

8) OXY - Purchased at 83.66. Stop loss now at 82.20. Stock closed on Friday at 89.52.

9) CVX - Averaged long at 109.335 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 106.65. Stock closed on Friday at 115.91.

10) LEN - Shorted at 39.69. Stop loss at 44.50. Stock closed on Friday at 43.76.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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