Issue #486
Jul 17, 2016
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Control but Positive Earnings Needed to Maintain Rally!

DOW Friday closing price - 18516

The DOW made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18557 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index will be receiving several important earnings reports this week (IBM, JNJ, GE, GS, MSFT, AXP, TRV, and V) meaning that the rally may begin to run out of ammunition if the reports are not better than expected.

The DOW was the leader this past week, having rallied 2% over last week's close, compared to the other 2 indexes that rallied 1.5% each. The leadership by the index is not a strong positive given that any time the Blue Chip stocks rally over the rest of the market it usually means traders are being conservative. Then again, the bigger rally may have been due to stop loss buying due to the new all-time highs made, meaning that the leadership should not continue this week if the overall market is on a new leg to the upside.

If the DOW is on a new leg upward, the objective will be the 19000 level as that is not only the next psychological resistance but also where a 3-point uptrend line using the past 3 highs weekly closes seen the past 18 months is found.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows no resistance whatsoever as it is on a new all-time intra-week high.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows no support until the 17713 level is reached. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, minor but likely pivotal support will be found at the previous all-time high daily close at 18315 and then at the 52-week daily closing high at 18100. On a weekly closing basis, support will be found at the previous all-time high weekly close at 18272.

Having made a new all-time high, the bulls in the DOW are committed to continuing the rally until the 19000 demilitarized zone objective is reached. A retest of the breakout level at 18315/18272 is likely to be seen this coming week but then again a drop below last week's low at 18161 would be a negative sign.

The probabilities favor the bulls in the DOW this week with a possible/likely trading range of 18315 and 18705. Anything above or below that trading range would likely be a signal of weakness or of additional strength.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5029

The NASDAQ made a new 2016 intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5045 will be seen this week.

The NASDAQ was finally able to close the gap at 4999 that had been working as brick wall for the past 7 months, suggesting that now the bulls may have enough ammunition to renew the Tech leadership that had been dormant all year.

On a possible negative note though, the NASDAQ now shows 3 gaps to the upside over the past 3 weeks (between 4692 and 4732, between 4889 and 4901 and between 4958 and 4976) and anything more than 2 gaps usually means that at the very least the last gap down at 4958 has become a magnet that at some point will draw the index back down. In addition, it once again needs to be mentioned that the Death Cross of the 50-week MA, currently at 4828, under the 100-week MA, currently at 4824 is likely to occur this week and the last time it occurred was in 2008 and it brought about a 1208 point drop in the 7 months after the cross occurred.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 5088 and 5092 and minor to decent resistance between 5116 and 5119. Above that level there is no resistance until decent resistance is found between 5164 and 5176. On a weekly closing basis though, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 5048.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor but psychologically supported support between 5000 and 5004, minor to perhaps decent at 4945, minor to decent at 4908 and decent at 4871.

The NASDAQ will start getting important earnings reports this week (NFLX, MSFT, INTC, and EBAY) that should begin to clear up the Tech industry picture and offer direction for the summer. The Tech industry has been depressed this year and given the rally in the other indexes, if things are turning around (as the rally seems to suggest) it could cause the index to take up the leadership again. NFLX is the first to report on Monday after the close and could be the stock that offers the best clue as to what to expect from the other Tech companies.

On a purely chart basis, the last high seen in the NASDAQ last year was 5116 and if that level gets broken it will give the bulls additional ammunition for further buying interest. By the same token, last week's low at 4976 should not be broken this week but if it does get broken, a drop down to 4871 could occur and if that level of support gets broken, the bears will get the edge back.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2161

The SPX confirmed the new all-time high weekly close made the previous week, having made a new all-time intra-week high as well as another all-time high weekly close on Friday. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2169 is expected to be seen.

The earnings quarter in the SPX got off to a strong start with JPM and C reporting better than expected earnings and WFC reporting earnings as expected. This week even more heavyweights will report with BAC and IBM reporting on Monday, GS on Tuesday and HAL, MS, and AXP on Wednesday. The financial industry has been the one "leading the parade" as of late (due to the low interest rate scenario) and as such, the remaining reports due out this week are likely to help determine what the industry will do going into the summer.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX show no resistance above as it is into new all-time highs. Nonetheless, many analysts had a 2200 objective for this year and with the index now being within 30 points of that objective (based on the high seen last week), it could be surmised that some selling interest will be seen there.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows no support until minor to perhaps decent support at the most recent low at 2074 seen 2 weeks ago. Below that level, there is very minor support at 2063 and then minor to decent between 2050 and 2052. Decent support is found between 2039 and 2042.

The SPX will likely continue to "lead the parade" to the upside at the beginning of the week since there are still 5 earnings reports in the index scheduled for the first 3 days of the week. Nonetheless, once those reports have come out, the probabilities will favor some profit taking being seen in the index.

As stated above, the 2200 level in the SPX has been the fundamental objective of many analysts for this year, meaning that once reached the bulls may run out of fundamental reasons to continue buying. As such, an additional 1.3% rally could be seen this week (above 2169) but thereafter the bulls would likely be scrambling to find reasons to continue purchasing.

Given that the SPX has seen a 12.5%, a 4.8%, a 4.6% and a 21% correction on 4 of the past 5 years, all those years starting sometime in July (but mostly the latter part of July), it is likely that a drop down to at least 2100 or 2070 (depending on the high made) will be seen over the next 6-7 weeks.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the SPX this week but the probabilities favor a top (perhaps only short-term) being made.


The market is now into the first week of the earnings quarter and so far earnings have been better than expected, though so far it has been mostly bank or financial industry reports. The indexes responded with additional highs being made. This coming week will have many additional earnings reports that affect not only the financial industry but the entire market, meaning that a better idea of how the economy is doing will be seen.

Nonetheless, there has been no "smoking gun" for the rally and with no support having been built on the way up, the market is at risk of any piece of bad news bringing a rash of profit taking and/or new selling. In addition, the market has seen a July-August correction occur on 4 of the past 5 years and with and overbought condition, no support below, and a long term negative in the form of Brexit, the probabilities strongly favor a correction occurring this year as well, likely starting the last week of July.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions in the newsletter this week, other than adding short positions in GS (details on the update section of the stock below). Nonetheless, the week could be primed for new positions being given after the important earnings reports come out. As such, mentions will be made on the message board.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL bulls were able to generate additional upside with the help of the index market. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 99.30 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to break above any meaningful resistance, suggesting that the rally was more about the overall market than it was about the stock itself. Minor to decent intra-week resistance is found at 100.72, a bit stronger at 101.53 and short-term pivotal at 101.89. Given that the indexes are likely to start seeing some selling interest this week and that the company reports earnings a week from Tuesday, the probabilities favor further but limited upside with the probabilities of getting above 100.72 being low. Very minor but possibly short-term pivotal support is found at 96.84 and a bit more pivotal at 94.37. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

ARNA generated an uneventful week, having gone 4 points above the previous week's high and not breaking the previous week's low by 1 point. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for either side generating some movement this coming week. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.76 that if broken would be a strong sign that the downside is over as a second successful retest on the weekly chart of the 1.30 low will have been made, in addition to breaking a decent intra-week resistance level. Short-term pivotal support is found at 1.56 and stronger and longer term pivotal at 1.48. Probabilities favor the bulls but slightly.

ENG produced an uneventful week, having stayed within the 1.15-1.35 trading range seen the last 5 weeks. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.20 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, as long as the bulls can keep the stock above 1.15, which is the bottom of a bullish flag formation, the outlook remains positive. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.30/1.32, at 1.35 and longer term pivotal at 1.42. Support is found at 1.15, at 1.07 and major pivotal at .97. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but it is unlikely anything of consequence will occur.

FCEL remained with a bearish tone, having generated another red weekly close (5th in the last 6 weeks) and having closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.21 will be seen this week. Support is found at 5.02 and major at 4.56. Nonetheless, the bulls have had no success recently, having generated 9 red daily closes out of the last 10 trading days, meaning that something fundamentally positive needs to occur to stimulate new buying interest. By the same token, the $5 level has to be considered strong psychological support, further strengthened by the 32-trading day history in the last year of trading around the $5 demilitarized zone. Probabilities continue to favor the bears but on a very limited basis.

FSLR bears were unable to follow through on the previous week's close near the lows of the week, having generated an inside week with a green close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 47.81 will be seen this week. On another positive note, though small in nature, the bulls were able to close 2 days in a row above a previous daily close support level at 47.06, suggesting that the recent selling interest after the downgrade has begun to subside. The stock is now showing a double bottom on the daily closing chart at 44.23/44.34 that combined with the downgrade objective of $44 has now become a strong support base that will not likely be broken without additional fundamental negative news. Very minor resistance is found at 48.77 and minor to perhaps decent but likely pivotal as well as trend defining resistance is found at 49.18 that if broken would suggest that the downtrend is over. Buying interest should now be seen on any dips down to the $47 level. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

GS had a strong week, having broken through 2 minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance levels at 159.00 and at 161.59. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 163.24 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Tuesday morning before the opening of the market and that earnings report is likely to determine further direction. By the same token, the stock has rallied 15.4% over the past 2 weeks without any company news, suggesting that even if the earnings report is better than expected, that much of the possible upside has been seen. Decent as well as longer term pivotal resistance is found at 168.90 and given that the 200-week MA is currently at 167.60 and that the stock is still below that line, means that the stock is still in a long-term downtrend and that the probabilities do not favor the bulls being able to break above that line at this time, especially given that the recent multi-year low at 138.20 has not yet been tested successfully. As such, the probabilities favor selling interest being seen after the earnings report with the only question is "how high between last week's high at 163.24 and 167.60 will the stock go up to this week?" It should be noted that the 200-day MA, currently at 165.05, has not been broken for the past 9 months and is not likely to get broken at this time either, at least not on a daily closing basis, meaning that new or additional shorts can be considered at 165.00 with a stop loss at 169.00 and a downside objective of at least 148.84, which is a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Rating on the trade is a 3.75.

HAL made a new 5-week high but the bulls were unable to get above the 14-month high at 46.69 or even close above the 200-week MA, currently at 45.70. The stock closed in the exact middle of the week's trading range as the traders await the earnings report that is due out on Wednesday before the opening of the market. Resistance is found at 46.48 and at 46.69 and support is found at 44.71 and then nothing until 42.94. The stock closed on the lows of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 45.27 is expected to be seen. If the 44.71 support is broken, the traders will likely await the earnings report with the bias being to the downside. Any rally above 46.69 or close next Friday above 45.70 would be a positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

INTC generated another strong up week and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.30 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has gotten up to a decent resistance area between 35.00 and 35.56 where the bulls were unable to generate any further upside in September 2014 and in December 2015. Additionally and on a weekly closing basis, the $35 level has been decent to even perhaps strong resistance over the past 22 months, having been seen but not broken on 4 different occasions during that period of time when the bulls were unable to generate any further upside. As such and even though on an intra-week basis further upside is likely to be seen this week, the probabilities favor a red weekly close next Friday. The company reports earnings on Wednesday after the market close. Pivotal support is found between 33.81 and 33.86 that if broken would suggest that a drop down to somewhere between 31.93 and 32.28 would occur, which is an area further supported by the 200-day MA, currently at 32.10. Probabilities slightly favor the bears, at least as far as the weekly close is concerned.

MT generated a buy signal this past week, having closed above the most recent weekly high close at 5.29. In addition, the stock closed firmly above the 50-week MA, currently at 5.25, which is a line that had not been broken to the upside for the past 26 months. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5.82 is expected to be seen. Intra-week resistance is found at 6.14 that if broken would mean a new 9-month high will have been made, which in turn would be a further and strong signal that the stock is on a short to mid-term uptrend with a possible upside objective of reaching the 100-week MA, currently at 8.20. Minor support is found at 5.47 and decent at 4.96. Probabilities favor the bulls.

NFX made a new 69-month intra-week high last week by 18 points (45.61 vs 45.43) but the bulls failed to generate a break of the weekly close resistance at 44.64, having closed at 44.52. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders will follow what the indexes do, especially considering that the company does not report earnings until August 2nd. Nonetheless, It does need to be mentioned that there is another intra-week/weekly close resistance, not as strong as the one at 45.43 (44.64 weekly close), at 47.40 (45.60 weekly close) but one that if the stock gets above last week's high could still prevent any runaway buying. The chart suggests that the overall market needs to go substantially higher to generate a true breakout above this 6-year resistance area. As such, I would venture to say the probabilities favor the bears. A break below last week's low at 43.42 would be a decent negative.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .437 (new price 5.25).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.20.

3) NFX - Shorted at 45.45. Averaged short at 42.723. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 44.52.

4) INTC - Shorted at 34.78. Stop loss at 35.69. Stock closed on Friday at 35.07.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.66.

6) MT - Purchased at 5.03. Stop loss at 4.15. Stock closed on Friday at 5.64.

7) HAL - Shorted at 45.95. Averaged short at 44.505 (2 mentions).Stop loss at 46.79. Stock closed on Friday at 45.46.

8) FSLR - Averaged long at 47.945 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.73.

9) AAPL - Averaged short at 97.81 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 101.99. Stock closed on Friday at 98.78.

10) GS - Averaged short at 142.986 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 161.64.

11) GS - Shorted at 152.79. Covered shorts at 154.03. Loss on the trade of $124 per 100 shares plus commissions.

12) GS - Shorted at 161.17. Covered shorts at 162.39. Loss on the trade of $122 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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