Issue #480
May 29, 2016
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Important Economic Week Ahead. Bulls in Control!

DOW Friday closing price - 17873

The DOW generated an up week, meaning that the previous week's low at 17331 was a successful retest of the 100-week MA (currently at 17380). The 100-week MA has been "short-term" pivotal since August of last year when it first got broken to the downside after being above the line for 3 years (since October 2011). For the past 10 months (since August), the line has been pivotal on 4 occasions, having been below the line twice for a total of 6 weeks and 12 weeks and above the line twice as well, having gotten above the line in October for 10 weeks and now been above the line since March for the past 11 weeks. With no fundamental reasons for the line to be broken to the downside this past week, the bounce from the line was not unexpected.

The DOW closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 17891 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, with the index likely to still be in a sideways trading range, such as has been seen mostly for the past 18 months, the upside seems to be limited.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 17901 and 17934, decent resistance at 17977 and decent to strong at 18167. Strong resistance is found at the all-time high at 18351.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor support between 17651 and 17698 and again between 17576 and 17580. Minor to perhaps decent support is found between 17465 and 17484 and decent at 17331. Further and longer term pivotal support is found between 17037 and 17116, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17125.

The DOW is likely to find chart selling interest as it gets up to the 17900-17935 level, which is only 27 to 62 points above Friday's close. If that resistance level is not broken, the bears will gain some leverage. By the same token, if that level is broken the selling interest is not likely to decrease much as there is additional and decent resistance at the bottom of the 18000 demilitarized zone (17970) as that area seems to be a short-term pivot point that will likely require a positive interest rate outlook to break above and that is not likely to happen until after the ISM Index and Jobs report come out and only if the interest rate scenario presently in place does not change.

The probabilities favor the DOW being in a trading range between 17970 and 17560 for the next 2 weeks until the June 15th interest rate decisions comes out.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4717

The NASDAQ had a strong week in which it once again outperformed the other indexes, having rallied 3.4% above the previous week's close while the SPX rallied 2.7% and the DOW 2.1%. The over performance of the index suggests there may be more to this rally than the sideways action that is expected, given that in the past 8 years when the index has led it has generally meant that an uptrend is in place or that it has resumed.

The NASDAQ closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4933 is expected to be seen this week. With the index having generated a 170 trading range this past week and having closed only 5 points below the high weekly close for 2016, the probabilities not only favor that a new 6-month intra-week and weekly closing high will be made this week but that the gap up between 4969 and 4999 from the first week of January will be tested and likely closed.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show minor resistance at 4960 and decent at 4970. Above that level, there is no resistance until minor to decent resistance is found at 5042. Decent resistance is found at 5116 and then nothing until 5176. Strong resistance is found at the all-time high at 5231.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor support at 4908 and minor to decent at 4871. Below that level, there is decent support between 4808 and 4825 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 4815.

The NASDAQ is now showing what could be seen as a successful retest of the February low at 4209 with the drop down to 4678 that was seen 2 weeks ago. In addition, the recent drop down to that price also means the overbought condition has eased, given the 5.8% correction that was seen during the past 6 weeks, which was fully expected to happen and is now over.

The NASDAQ is facing an important week as closure of the gap up at 4999 will take away a strong chart negative that would not necessarily suggest the uptrend has resumed but it would mean that the 4209 low seen in February is likely to be the low for the year.

The NASDAQ will be closely watched on Tuesday because if the bulls are able to get above 4999 that day, it will generate a positive reversal month that would likely give the bulls enough chart ammunition to retest and likely break the all-time high at 5231.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week. By the same token, any failure to get above 4970, and more importantly close the gap this week, will be seen as a sign of weakness.

SPX Friday closing price - 2099

The SPX made a new 8-month weekly closing high on Friday, above the 2016 high weekly close at 2091 seen in April and up to the 11-month high weekly close from November at 2099. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2099 is expected to be seen this week.

The SPX generated a 52 point trading range this past week and if that is duplicated to the upside this coming week, a new all-time high above 2134 will be made.

As with the DOW , the SPX generated a successful retest of the 100-week MA, currently at 2030, as well as of the 50-week MA, currently at 2025, having dropped down to those prices the previous week and then going above and closing above the previous week's high. The successful retest of those 2 lines, which are presently showing a "Death Cross", could go far in annulling the sell signal if and when a new all-time high is made.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows decent and likely pivotal resistance at 2111, decent again at 2116, minor at 2125 and strong at the double top at 2134.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2070 and then minor to decent support between 2039 and 2044. Further pivotal support is found at 2025.

The SPX is the index that will be watched the closest this week, given the pivotal resistance at 2111 and the nearness of the all-time high at 2134 that could easily be reached this week if the economic reports are positive for the market. A new all-time high would negate the "Death Cross" (something that has not happened in the past 20 years) and would give the bulls enough ammunition to continue up to the 2200 level, which is a level that many analysts have stated is a viable upside objective this year.

The probabilities favor the bulls this week, especially since the index has seen an expected correction of 4.1% over the past 6 weeks and now has shown strong and new momentum to upside that is unlikely to be halted this week.


The bulls now seem to have recouped the upside momentum, especially given that during the past 6 weeks the overbought condition has eased after the expected correction seen (from 4.1% in the SPX to the 5.4% in the NAZ). In addition, the correction does seem to have also fulfilled the needed successful retest of the February lows, meaning that chart-wise the bears no longer have powerful reasons with which to move the indexes lower.

This coming week is fundamentally important as the 2 most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs) come out. These reports this month are even more important because the Fed is likely to use them to decide whether to raise or not raise interest rates in June based on the data they bring.

At this moment though, the bulls seem to be in control and the burden of proof is on the shoulders of the bears to prove that there are still enough negatives in the U.S. economy to prevent new all-time highs from being made. With higher oil prices, strong dollar, and one of the best economies in the world (comparatively), the U.S. market is still the place to invest.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Based on the chart action seen the past 2 weeks, the bulls now have a clear edge for further upside unless there are some surprises that would suggest a negative outcome in the interest rate scenario. Even though the charts suggest that purchasing stocks is the most likely "way to go" at this time, there are still too many variables, as well as resistance levels to break, before confidence in purchasing can be achieved. In addition, the market has been a virtual yo-yo the past few weeks, unexplainably so on many occasions, meaning that chart evaluation has been inconsistent to say the least.

As such, there are no new mentions this week though the previous purchase mention given 2 weeks ago remains viable. If at any time during the week the chart picture gets clearer, mentions will be given in the message board. PURCHASES

FCX Friday Closing Price - 11.14

FCX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing low in November, having broken the previous all-time weekly closing low at 8.40 seen in December 2008 and continuing downward to 3.52 which was the low seen in January. The stock had been on a major 5-year downtrend from 61.34 to 3.52 that was evidently caused by some fundamental problem with the company.

Nonetheless, FCX evidently found a major bottom at the 3.52 level as the stock negated the major break of support in February and has continued upward to the recent high at 14.06 that was reached 3 weeks ago. The 4-month rally has caused the stock to quadruple in value (from 3.52 to 14.06), strongly suggesting that whatever fundamental problem caused the 5-year downtrend has now been eliminated.

FCX convincingly broke above the 200-day MA in February, currently at 9.20, for the first time in 17 months and continued higher to 14.06 (seen 3 weeks ago) which is an area of decent intra-week resistance as it represents the 10-month high seen in October of last year. The bulls were unable to break through that level the first time around, likely meaning that the break of the 200-day MA is likely to be tested.

It does need to be mentioned that the chart of FCX seems to be in the process of building an inverted Head & Shoulders formation with the right shoulder being the drop down to 7.76 (9.52 on a weekly closing basis), the head at 3.52 (3.94 on a weekly closing basis) and the right shoulder being in the process of being built. The necklines are the 14.20 high seen in October and the 14.06 high seen 3 weeks ago. When the right shoulder is built and the neckline broken, the objective of the flag would be 24.74. By the same token and on a weekly closing basis, it can be said that the formation is now complete, having closed at 10.41 3 weeks ago, followed by 2 green weekly closes in a row, suggesting that the right shoulder is now built, as well as the neckline formed.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, minor resistance is found between 11.94 and 12.12 and then minor to perhaps decent at 12.64. Decent resistance is found between 14.06 and 14.20.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, very minor support is found at 9.52, minor at 9.10, minor to perhaps decent between 8.47 and 8.76 and decent at 7.76.

FCX closed in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 10.72 will be seen this week. If that does occur and the previous week's low at 10.22 is broken, it is likely that the stock will continue down towards or to the desired entry point. By the same token, if last week's lows are not broken this week, consideration should be given to raising the desired entry point.

If the $10 demilitarized zone is broken this week, I would venture an educated guess that FCX will find strong buying interest somewhere between 8.47 and 9.33 with a higher probability of support being found near the high of that range than the low of that range.

Purchases of FCX between 8.48 and 9.34 and using a stop loss at 7.65 and having a 24.74 long-term objective will offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

This is a standing mention, meaning that if the desired entry points are not reached this week but no rally of consequence is seen, it will be just as good the following week or the week after.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL generated a 5.2% recovery rally this past week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 100.73 will be seen this week. Intra-week resistance is found at 101.53 and at 103.74. The gap between 103.91 and 98.71 remains unclosed but if the minor resistance at 101.53 is broken, the stock will likely get up to the 103.74 level and if the gap is closed, it will take away a strong negative. By the same token, the resistance at 103.74 is decent enough that it might be reached but not likely broken, meaning the breakaway/runaway gap formation is likely to stay in place. Stop loss is presently at 101.63 but the probabilities favor it being triggered and a rally up to 103.74 occurring. As such, if the stock falls back to 98.68, where intra-day support is found, consideration should be given to covering the short and scratching the trade. By the same token, re-shorting or adding positions should be considered on a rally up anywhere close to 103.70 using a stop loss at the closure of the gap at 103.91. Company is having some problems at this time and is a viable candidate to go against the indexes if they should go higher as expected. In addition, there is an open gap down between 95.67 and 95.43 that will likely be a magnet until closed.

AMT bears were unable to generate follow through to the downside this past week and the stock ended up having an inside week but with a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 106.54 will be seen this week. With the all-time high just $1.18 from the close on Friday, it is likely that level will be tested this week and if broken by more than 50 points (as the previous all-time highs failed to do), further upside (likely up to $110) will probably occur. By the same token, if the indexes go higher but the bulls fail to make a new all-time high this coming week, it will be a big disappointment. Chart strongly favors the bulls as a bull flag is presently in place that if 107.24 is broken will offer a 126.46 objective.

ARNA generated a positive week with a green close, confirming the previous week's successful retest of the 1.50 area on the weekly closing chart. In addition, the stock closed on Friday above a minor to decent weekly close resistance level at 1.70 with a close at 1.75 and if the bulls are able to get above 1.76 this coming week (likely since the stock closed on the highs of the week at 1.75), it will be a signal that a strong base of support has been built at 1.50 on the weekly closing chart. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.76 and then nothing until decent intra-week resistance is found between 2.05 and 2.07, which proved impossible to break the last time the stock visited that area in April. A break above 2.07 would be a strong signal that the downtrend is over and that a decent short-covering rally will occur with the first objective being the 2.68 high seen in November. Probabilities are now favoring the bulls.

CVX generated an inside week but a green close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 102.37 will be seen this week. The bulls did close the stock just 16 points from the 52-week weekly closing high at 102.18 and if able to generate another green close next Friday, above 102.18, it will generate a failure to follow through signal to the downside that would likely help the bulls run another up leg with the 200-week MA, currently at 110.05 as the first objective. Intra-week resistance is found at 104.26 that if broken would be a strong reason to cover the short positions. Minor but short-term pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 102.60 and at 102.80 and then intra-day resistance is found between 103.70 and 103.85. Short-term pivotal support is found at 100.87. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but this is a pivotal week.

ENG had an uneventful week, having generated an inside week and a close on Friday at the same level it closed at the previous Friday. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.10 is likely to be seen. Decent and pivotal daily close resistance is found at 1.20 and important daily close support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 1.05. Probabilities are evenly split between bulls and bears though the burden of proof is still on the shoulders of the bears.

FCEL is now showing 3 weeks in a row of green closes and 2 weeks in a row above the minor to decent weekly close resistance at 6.16, suggesting that the bulls now have the decided edge as far as a bottom having been built and the downtrend being over. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.80 is expected to be seen. Intra-week resistance is found at 7.05, at 7.35 and at 8.08. The stock is showing what looks to be a short-term pivotal daily close resistance at 7.25 that if broken would give not only a new buy signal but would suggest that the bulls will attempt for a second time this year to break above the 8.01/8.25 daily/weekly close resistance area that would give a failure to follow through signal to the downside but would also break convincingly the 200-day MA, currently at 7.60, which is a line that has not been broken to the upside for the past 21 months. Support is now crucial and pivotal at 5.38. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR generated the 2nd green weekly close out of the last 10 weeks but it was an important one as it made the previous week's intra-week low at 46.67 into a successful retest of the $47 level, which is important as a general support ($3 below $50) and of a previous intra-week low of importance at 47.04. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 51.33 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed exactly on the 50-week MA, currently at 49.90, and if the bulls can generate another green close next Friday, it can be said that the important retest of that line has been successful. Intra-week resistance is found at 52.75 and decent, as well as pivotal, at 53.67. Support is now found at 49.10 and at 48.58 that should not be broken at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls and a rally up to the 53.67 level.

IBM had a strong week up and a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 152.93 will be seen this week. The stock is presently showing a bullish flag formation with the top of the flag being at 153.52, which if broken would offer an upside objective of 179.73. Considering that the 200-week MA is currently at 175.50, it is a viable objective if the bulls are able to break above the top of the flag by at least 50 points. It should also be mentioned that on a weekly closing basis, a close above 153.31 would also give a failure to follow through signal to the downside, which in turn would give added ammunition to the bulls for the rally up to $175. Probabilities favor the bulls but this area is pivotal and will likely require that the indexes breakout and resume their uptrend. Any failure here would suggest the stock will drop down to at least the $140 area.

MMM failed to follow through to the downside last week after closing near the lows of the week the previous week and the bulls took advantage to rally the stock to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 170.77 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to generate a new all-time high weekly close, closing at 168.89, which is below the 2 previous high weekly closes at 169.00 and 169.05 and slightly above the high weekly close seen in February 2015 at 168.65, suggesting that there is still some selling interest being seen. The multiple high weekly closes in the same area suggest that the bulls will ultimately come out the victors but the big question remains "how will the bulls be able to generate a lot of new buying interest if the $170 level has been such a long-standing and tested-successfully-repeatedly area? (5 times over a period of 15 months). Consideration should be given to covering shorts if the stock gets above the all-time high at 171.27.

ORCL had a positive week but the bulls were not able to accomplish as much with the stock as they accomplished with other short-held stocks, suggesting that there is still some decent selling interest. The stock remained below the 100-week MA, currently at 40.20, and still 4.6% below the recent high at 42.00 seen in March and it should be mentioned that the 100-week MA has been a decent indicator for the stock for many years. Decent intra-week resistance is found at 40.64 that if not broken this week, especially if the indexes move higher, would signal that the bears still have the edge. As such, a stop loss at 40.74 seems to be a sensitive but smart thing to do, considering what is happening with the index market. Probabilities are about even this week. The chart of the stock suggests that it is still one to consider staying short even if the indexes continue higher and the stop loss is not triggered.

T has been "spinning its wheels" for the past 11 weeks, having traded between 37.73 and 39.72 during this period of time. With the resistance at $40 going back 8 years, it does suggest that even if the indexes go higher that this stock is not likely to do much. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.99 will be seen this week. Intra-week resistance is found at 39.01, at 39.15 and at 39.25 and then nothing until the double top at 39.66/39.72. If the bulls are able to get the stock above 39.25, the probabilities will favor the double top being reached and broken, which in turn would suggest a rally up to 40.70 would occur. As such, a stop loss at 39.35 seems to be the "way to go".


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .566 (new price 6.79).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.10.

3) AMT - Averaged short at 102.79 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 106.06.

4) T - Averaged short at 39.085 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 38.99.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.75.

6) IBM - shorted at 149.33. Stop loss at 153.62. Stock closed on Friday at 152.84.

7) ORCL - Shorted at 39.73. Stop loss now at 40.74l. Stock closed on Friday at 40.07.

8) MMM - Averaged short at 169.39 (2 mentions). Stop now at 171.37. Stock closed on Friday at 168.89.

9) FSLR - Purchased at 47.15. Averaged long at 50.615 (4 mentions). Stop loss is at 46.55. Stock closed on Friday at 49.90.

10) AAPL - Shorted at 98.56. Stop loss now at 103.84. Stock closed on Friday at 100.35.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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