DOW Friday closing price - 17515

The DOW generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 12-week high at 17648 but then reversing to close in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17399 will be seen this week.

The bulls in the DOW failed to keep the momentum to the upside going as a break a chart resistance point at 11750 that would have likely given them additional ammunition and a decided edge for a run up to the 18000 level, meaning that additional positive fundamental news is now required to stimulate further buying interest.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at last week's high at 17648 and a bit stronger as well as short-term pivotal at 17750. Above that level, there is additional and strong resistance between 17901 and 17977.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows very minor support at 17399 and minor at 17210. Below that level there is minor to decent support, as well as pivotal, between 17116 and 17138 that does include the 200-day MA, currently at 17135.

The DOW generated a positive reversal day on Friday, as well as a close on the highs of the day, suggesting that the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 17517. Nonetheless, the index broke below the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 17555, on Friday morning and it was a line that had not been broken to the downside for the previous 9 days, suggesting that a retest of the line is likely to occur and what happens then will give direction to the traders for the next few days after.

The death cross of the 50 and 100 week MA's in the DOW, both currently at 17280, will happen this week and having closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and there being no economic reports of consequence due out at the beginning of the week, it does suggest that if the bulls fail on Monday morning to get above the 200 10-minute MA, that the MA lines will become the target for the week, or at least until the important economic reports on Friday come out.

The DOW generated a 249 point trading range last week and as such, a trading range between 17280 (MA's cross) and 17555 (200 10-minute MA) is a very viable trading range (275 points) to be seen prior to the ISM Index and Jobs reports due out on Friday.

Probabilities favor the bears this week, at least until the economic reports come out on Friday.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4773

The NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 11-week high at 4835 and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4734 will be seen this week.

In addition, the red close in the NASDAQ caused the previous week's close at 4795 to become a successful retest of the 4791-4828 weekly close resistance area that stopped 4 previous rallies (for at least 2 months) in the past 16 months (2 in Nov/Dec 2014 and 2 in Aug/Sep2015).

The reversal in the NASDAQ was particularly indicative inasmuch as the index started out the week on a strong note, having broken on Monday the 4814 level that was decent resistance from December 2014 and leading the other indexes at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, with only very minor resistance at 4836 and a clear chart objective of reaching the 200-day MA, currently at 4668, the bulls failed to accomplish what seemed to be a clear objective for the week. On a week where the volume was the lowest seen all year and the bulls had momentum in their favor, such a failure had to be disappointing.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor to now perhaps decent resistance at 4835/4836 and now decent at 4862. On a daily closing basis and using the chart for the last 52 weeks, minor to decent resistance is found at 4828 and decent at 4893.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor support at 4712 and then nothing until minor to decent but also short-term pivotal support between 4614 and 4607. Below that level, there is very minor support at 4557 and then minor to decent at 4487. It does need to be mentioned that 4712 was last week's low and any break of that level this coming week would suggest the recent uptrend may have found a snag.

As with the other indexes, the NASDAQ generated a positive reversal day and a close on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 4773 will be seen on Monday. Like with the other indexes, the 200 10-minute MA , currently at 4990, is likely to be a pivot point for the first few days of the week, meaning that if the bulls are unable to break above the line convincingly that selling interest will be seen and take the index down until the economic reports come out on Friday.

The downside objective for the week in the NASDAQ is likely to be the 4614 level which was the downside support level in August when the index also got up to 4835 but failed to follow through. A drop down to that level would not change the chart picture but would fulfill all of the chart requirements for the week prior to the fundamental reports.

The probabilities favor the NASDAQ trading between 4790 and 4614, with some slight rally on Monday and then selling interest being seen through Thursday just prior to the economic reports coming out.

SPX Friday closing price - 2035

The SPX generated the same kind of negative reversal, close in the lower half of the week's trading range, and failure to get above the December 29th high as seen with the other indexes, suggesting the same kind of action as outlined above with the other indexes is expected to be seen here.

Nonetheless, it must be mentioned that the death cross in the SPX continues to get nearer to fruition as the MA's lines got another 4 points closer to each other this past week (previous week the 50-week MA was at 2033 and now it is at 2032 and the 100-week MA was at 2015 and now it is at 2018), meaning that if no additional rally of consequence above the recent 2056 high is seen over the next few weeks that the cross will occur before the end of April.

The SPX does have one chart factor that does make the index of particular interest to the traders this week, inasmuch as it is the only one with the 200-day MA close by. The 200-day MA is currently at 2017 and with the DOW being 383 points above its line and the NASDAQ being 95 points below its line, it is likely that the traders will key on the SPX this week for clues as to what to expect. A confirmed close below the line would give the bears the edge at the end of the week just prior to the economic reports due out on Friday, while holding above the line throughout the week will give the bulls the edge.

It does need to be re-stated from last week's newsletter that during the past 52 weeks, the SPX generated a total of 3 low daily closes of importance between 2046 and 2056 and with Monday's high daily close at 2051, followed by 3 red daily closes in a row, the level of resistance at that area just got stronger.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor to now perhaps decent resistance at 2056 and minor to decent resistance between 2076 and 2081. Above that level, there is minor to decent resistance at 2093 and decent at 2104.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor support at 2019, minor to decent at 1993 and decent as well as pivotal at 1969.

The SPX has now closed above the 100-week MA, currently at 2017, for 2 weeks in a row and with important economic reports due out next Friday, the weekly close will be important and likely pivotal. A close next Friday below 2017 would erase the fragile gains the bulls have achieved and give the bears back the edge they had at the beginning of the year, while a close above that line would give the bulls a chart edge they can continue to build on for further gains.

Probabilities do favor the bears this week but keeping in mind that as stated in last week's newsletter, the chart of the SPX suggests that a trading range between 1995 and 2075 could be the short-term outlook, the traders are likely to need more chart information for making a longer term evaluation.

The traders are facing what could be a fundamentally pivotal week, given that the 2 most important economic reports of the month (ISM Index and Jobs) are scheduled to be released on Friday. The recent rally, though impressive in its range and consistency over a period of 6 weeks, did not accomplish enough on the charts to give the bulls back the edge they lost at the beginning of the year, meaning that they still need fundamental help to go higher.

The probabilities do not favor the reports being good enough to change the economic outlook but even if they do come out catalytically positive, it might still be a negative as it would suggest the Fed might go back to a more hawkish interest rate stance. As such, the bulls are facing a difficult week where they will need to accomplish what they have not yet been able to accomplish with the recent rally.

Nonetheless, the outlook for the future is fundamentally cloudy at best and as such the traders are likely to key their decisions on what happens on the charts this week. The chart levels involved are clearly defined above and it is likely the traders will follow whatever chart signals are given.