Issue #72 ![]() May 18, 2008 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Trend Decision Week Ahead!
DOW Friday close at 12986
The DOW has set itself up for a very important trend direction signal next week. Both the daily and weekly charts have been fulfilled in both directions and any further movement from these levels is likely indicative of a clear direction for the next few weeks.
Friday's close was a re-test of the previous high daily close two weeks ago at 13058 as well as a re-test of the 200-day MA currently at 13000. In addition, on Friday, the DOW closed at a previous low close and support level of consequence on the weekly chart at 12981. Having broken above that level two weeks ago and now failing to close above that level again on a strong week is a negative, especially since there is very little news of consequence due out for the next few weeks. Such a chart formation, depending on which direction the index chooses to go, will now likely generate follow-through action and a short-term defined trend.
On a daily closing basis there is now strong resistance at 13058 from a previous high as well as from the 50-week MA. The 13000 level will likely continue to offer strong psychological resistance as well. Above that level there is some minor resistance at 13379 and then stronger at 13626-13668. Support is very strong at 12743 and then again 12610 from a previous high as well as from the 100-week MA. On a daily closing basis, the 12565 level will also offer support as that is where the 50 and 100 day MA's are currently located.
With most of the earnings reports already out and the Fed now likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the next few months, or if inflation starts to rise giving interest rates a boost, there is little to help the market maintain itself at these high levels. The probabilities lie on the side of the market getting back into a short-term downtrend. The failure of the DOW to get above 13000, on a week that was anticipated to be strong, due to options expiring, should be seen as a negative. Unless the indexes are able to get above and stay above 13000, this coming week, it is highly likely that a strong round of profit taking and/or new selling will begin to appear.
The parameters on the daily chart seem to be very clear. A close on Monday above 13058 will be positive and a close below Friday's close at 12986 will be negative.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 2529
The NASDAQ once again proved to be the strong sister this past week as it was able to generate a break above the most recent intra-day high at 2498 and get up to the resistance level up at 2525. This is something the DOW was unable to do in getting above the 13123 previous intra-day high. In addition, the index was able to break and close above the 200-day MA (currently at 2515) as well as close above a strong previous daily close resistance level at 2525.
Nonetheless, the fact the NASDAQ is the index leading the charge to the upside is not a positive as the index has been the laggard and not the leader in recent years.
On Friday the index was able to close above a strong resistance level at 2515 and if able to close above that level again next week, it would be considered a break of resistance. Nonetheless, the previous high daily close of consequence was at 2525, a close just 4 points above that level is not considered a true break. It also must be mentioned that even though the index was able to close above the 200-day MA currently located at 2515, the index closed right at the 50-week MA at 2532 and weekly charts take precedence. It must be said, then, that no buy signal was given.
Resistance is quite strong between 2525 and 2541 but other than the previous high daily close at 2525, the rest of the resistance levels are previous low closes of consequence and therefore not resistance levels that can be counted upon. Support is not found until the 2440-2450 level but that level is now considered very strong if not major support. After that level there is no support of consequence until 2372 is seen.
It is clearly evident that any follow through to the upside on Monday, on a daily closing basis, will be a strong positive. Should the index rally next week, there is a gap that was left open between 2571 and 2592 that will act as a magnet. Should that gap be closed, rallies up to 2626-2635 will likely be seen.
Monday must now be considered a pivotal and indicative day in the NASDAQ. With all the recent strength seen this past week and the positive close on Friday, the buyers are committed to higher levels. Failure will be considered a strong negative and could generate a fast drop of 75 points (down to the 2440-2450 level) before the end of the week.
Like with the DOW, this is a make-or-break week for the NASDAQ.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1424
The SPX was able to close on Friday above the previous weekly closing high at 1414 as well as above the 100-week MA at 1411. Both of these actions must be considered strong positives and should generate some follow-through-to-the-upside action this coming week. With this week's rally above the previous recent high, it must be said that the SPX has outperformed the DOW and has thrown a mantle of uncertainty over the short-term direction of the indexes.
The chart of the SPX seems to signal that a rally up to the 1433-1444 level, on a daily and weekly closing basis, will be seen this coming week. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 1428 and that could stop the rally. With the SPX often being the chart leader, the chart of this index must be respected and will likely signal what the indexes, in general, will end up doing this week.
Resistance from the 200-day MA, as well as a couple of previous minor daily closing highs at 1428 is decent. Above that level there is only the 50-week MA at 1440 acting as resistance. Previous low closes of consequence between 1433 and 1444 will also act as resistance but previous lows are not considered major resistance. Above 1444 the next resistance of some consequence is at 1462. Support is now strong between 1400 (20-day MA) and 1407 (previous low of consequence) and then much stronger at 1384 intra-day (1388 on a daily and weekly closing basis).
The chart seems to call for some upward movement on Monday, perhaps up to the 1428 level intra-day, but if the index is able to close above that level, it is likely that intra-day rallies up to 1462 will be seen.
I do believe that the SPX will be the key to the week's actions. It is likely that if the SPX is able to close above 1428 that further upside will follow. If that happens the gap area between 2572 and 2592 in the NASDAQ will become a strong magnet and if the DOW closes above 13058, it could easily run up to the 13600 level. With the SPX having such an important level close-by, as the 200-day MA generally is, it can be used as the indicator to what the indexes will do this coming week.
Every once in a blue moon, the indexes reach a major pivot point where a short-term direction is decided upon and I do believe this coming week is just such a pivot week. Most of the news that could have an important impact on the market (earnings, Fed, etc) is out and for the next couple of months the market will have to rely on "speculation" of the future more so than on actual facts. The only report of consequence this coming week will be on Tuesday with the Producer Price Index coming out. Inflation has certainly been a strong topic of conversation recently and the PPI is the number everyone will be looking at.
I do believe the indexes will show some weakness on Monday and likely close in the red, as I don't believe investors will aggressively buy or sell unless some form of catalyst is seen. The PPI could be that catalyst on Tuesday and therefore it is likely that with the parameters mentioned above, the indexes will let us know what side to be on for the next 4-6 weeks.
In my opinion, and based on the charts as well as on my overall fundamental opinion of the market, I do believe the likelihood of downside action is higher than that of upside action. Nonetheless, I am the first person that must state that based on the charts, neither the bulls nor the bears have yet gained a decisive "edge". That is likely to change this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the market at a crux and/or pivotal level, mentions this week will be based on individual charts and not on the marketplace in general. Stocks chosen this week have their own agendas and are not tied into what the indexes do.
ANGO (Friday Close at 15.10)
ANGO is a stock that over the past 14 months has suffered two negative fundamental pieces of news. The first was back in March 2006 when the company lost a patent infringement lawsuit with Diomed that cost them dearly, and then on March 6th when lower earnings were reported. The stock has fallen from a high of $28 to a recent low just below $10. During the last few weeks the stock has been able to shrug off some of that negative news and has rallied back up to the $15-$16 level where the previous support of consequence (now resistance) is located.
From a chart perspective the stock finds itself in an overbought condition and nearing levels ($15-$16) of what is likely to prove to be strong resistance. In addition, the stock has not yet had a correction of consequence from this recent rally or built a good support level from which to generate additional upside. It is likely that the stock needs to correct downward and find a new level of support before launching a concerted effort at higher prices.
On an intra-day basis resistance has proven to be strong at 15.34. During the last 11 trading days the stock has been above the $15 level 10 times but has not yet been able to get above 15.34. In addition, the 100-day MA is currently at 15.73 and the gap it left on the way down, after the most recent negative earnings report, is at 15.98. In looking at the weekly chart and going back 4 years, there have been 3 major weekly low closes between 16.15 and 16.24 as well as one major high close in the same area. It is evident that the $16 level has not only been a major pivot point but should prove to be a formidable resistance level the first time around. Support is only minor down at 12.00 and major between $9-10.
With the 100-day MA at 15.76, the gap at 15.98, and major resistance, on a weekly closing basis, up at 16.15-16.24, it seems unlikely that the stock will be able to break above all of that resistance at this time. Nonetheless, the recent resistance at 15.34 seems to be vulnerable and with the traders knowing that many stops are likely sitting above that level will likely attempt to break this recent resistance level, trigger the stops, and generate a close of the gap area at 15.98.
The resistance at $16 is very strong and if the traders are able to close that gap, will likely turn their attention to the gap that was left on the way up between 11.88 and 12.28. In addition, the stock is in dire need of building a support base, from which to attempt to break above the $16 level in the future. Such a support base would mean that a re-test of the lows is likely.
Sales of ANGO between 15.76-16.00 and using at 16.34 stop close only stop loss and having an objective of at least a closure of the gap down at 11.88 would offer a risk/reward ratio of better than 5-1.
My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
ORB (Friday close at 26.10)
ORB is a stock that has been in an up-trend since April 2005 when it had a low of 8.96. The stock reached a high in October 2007 at 26.32 and went into a corrective phase that ended up with a low of 21.53 in February of this year. Four weeks ago the stock reported higher earnings than anticipated and the stock rallied up to 27.88 level and new all-time highs. It seems likely the up-trend has now resumed and that the stock is looking for higher prices.
During the past 3 weeks ORB has been regressing and is now in the process of re-testing the breakout level, on a daily closing basis, at 25.91, as well as the 25.54 on a weekly closing basis. New all-time highs generally require at least one re-test of the breakout level and it seems evident that is what the stock has been doing as of late.
On an intra-day basis, resistance is found at the recent high of 27.88 (27.60 on a daily closing basis) and minor at 27.01 (26.66 on a daily closing basis). Support is found, on an intra-day basis, at 25.17. This is from a previous low, several previous highs, as well as from the 50-day MA. On a daily closing basis, previous high closes at 25.46, 25.71, and 25.91 should also be considered major support, with 25.91 being the most important.
New all-time highs as well as continuation of a 2-year up-trend are powerful indicators this stock is likely heading higher. In addition, the stock has been building what looks to be a flag formation and based on the flagpole (the rally from 23.47-27.88), if a low of 25.17 is made would offer an objective of 29.67. That objective fits in well with a possibly psychological objective of $30.
With the reversal day the stock had on Friday (higher highs, lower lows, and a close below the previous days low), it is likely the stock will be heading down toward the 50-day MA at 25.17-25.25. This drop should be seen as a good opportunity to purchase the stock.
Purchases between 25.17-25.44 and using a stop loss at 24.33 and having an objective of $30 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
JNPR (Friday close at 28.89)
JNPR broke out of a 6-year high when the stock traded above the 30-25-31.25 level last July. The breakout generated a rally, within a period of 3 months, up to 37.88 where the stock began a downtrend of consequence breaking down to a low of 22.48 seen April 15th of this year. In the process of breaking down the stock negated the breakout and put the stock back into a defensive mode.
During the past month, and in conjunction with the rally in the indexes, JNPR rallied up to a high of 29.49 and has generated a double top at that price. With Friday's rally up to 29.04 the double top is being re-tested and if the indexes start to fall this coming week, it is likely the stock will fall as well. The weekly chart, though, shows a possible flag formation in place and should the stock indexes rally (instead of fall), it is likely JNPR will break above the double top at 29.49 and rally up to the 30.25-31.25 level (30.39 on a daily closing basis). On the weekly chart, the rally from the 22.48 low has been straight up and no re-test of the 22.48 has been seen as yet. A rally without a re-test of the lows, especially after such a failure signal was previous given, has to be seen as very suspect to say the least.
On this recent rally JNPR has broken above the 20, 50, and 100 day MA's and now finds itself moving up to the 200-day MA, which is currently at 30.25 and exactly at the previous major resistance level giving that area added strength.
Resistance is strong at 29.46, then at 30.25 and major at 31.25. Strong support is found at 26.87 (recent low) as well as the 20 and 100 day MA's. Support below that is not found until the 23.87 level.
It is evident that after a $7 rally straight up that if the stock gets up to and above the $30 level it will be susceptible to a strong correction. In addition, with the $30 area providing major long-term resistance it is unlikely the stock will be able to break above without some major fundamental help. The double top at 29.46 looms imposing and can be sold using a sensitive stop above it, nonetheless, it is my belief that the double top will be taken out and a rally up to the 200-day MA at 30.25 will be seen.
Sales of JNPR above 30.00 with a stop loss at 31.35 and an objective of 23.87 (24.60 on a daily closing basis) will offer 4-1 risk/reward ratio. It is possible the double top at 29.54 will hold up and if you do not want to take a chance on missing the trade, sales of JNPR at 29.02 and using a sensitive stop loss at 29.56 can also be considered. If stopped out, you should then consider re-shorting the stock at the original desired entry point.
My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
YGE (Friday closing price 24.88)
YGE is yet another stock in the "hot" solar industry that enjoyed a very strong and positive earnings report this past week. With the prices of oil heading into new all-time highs and creating havoc with costs associated to fuel, the solar energy field has been thriving as of late and that trend does not seem will let up any time soon.
YGE has only been trading for less than 1 year but it is already evident that the $25 level has become a major pivot point in the stock. During this past year the stock has been as high as 41.50 (Dec 2007) and as low as 13.15 (Mar 2008) but the $25 level has already shown itself to be, major support as well as major resistance on 4 previous occasions during this period of time. The stock has been in a strong up-trend since the low was made in March, with each subsequent corrective low being higher than the previous one and each subsequent rally being higher than the previous one. With the positive earnings report as well as the recent strength of the industry, it seems likely that YGE has a good probability of seeing higher prices.
Support is strong between 24.00 and 24.20 from the 200-day MA as well as from 5 previous lows and 2 previous highs at that price. Resistance is minor at last week's high of 27.96 and again at 28.99. Stronger resistance is found at 32.37 and then again at 33.50. Major resistance is up at the 39.20 level.
YGE is a volatile stock with large trading ranges but with the recent and consistent up-trend, the positive earnings report, as well as the break above the pivot point level at $25, this seems like a good time to get involved on the long side.
Purchases of YGE between 24.10 and 24.30 and using a stop loss at 22.15 and an objective of 32.50 offers a risk/reward ratio of 5-1. If you wish to step up and buy the stock around 24.70 and place a sensitive stop loss at 23.90, the risk/reward ratio would climb to almost 10-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). The rating would drop to a 6.5 if a stop loss at 23.90 is used.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks
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Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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NUAN had a very negative week with a negative earnings report causing the stock to gap down on Tuesday. In addition, the stock market was strong during the last 3 days of the week and though the stock was able to rally up to the 20.10 level it was unable to close the gap up at 20.33. Support is now strong at 19.02, from Tuesday's after-the-report low as well as from the 50-day MA. A break below 19.00 will be seen as a strong negative and will likely generate a move down to the 100-day MA at 17.92. There is a gap between 18.57 and 18.72 that will be a magnet unless the stock is able to rally convincingly (something it was not able to do this past week). Resistance is strong at 20.24 from a previous high as well as from the gap. Should the gap be closed, the 20-day MA is currently at 20.55 and should also act as resistance. It is unlikely the stock will be able to rally unless the indexes generate strong moves to the upside. ELON rallied very aggressively this week after last week's close at the 200-week MA at 10.77. The rally did take the stock above both the 20 and 50 day MA's and up to the 100-day MA. Much of this rally was based on the news the company was re-purchasing 3 million shares of stock. Nonetheless, with the strong rally, dips in this stock should be bought. A drop down to 12.35 is highly probable, as that is where a previous support level is seen as well as the 20-day MA. Drops down to 12.16 or 11.60 level are also possible but drops down to re-test the major support level at 11.14-11.23 are not likely any more, based on the spike type of action this past week. This is a stock I believe has strong long-term potential and accumulation of shares on drops down to the support levels mentioned above should be considered. STP had a strong rally this past week when FSLR (the #1 company in the solar industry) broke out and made new all-time highs. STP reacted positively and rallied along but was unable to close above important resistance levels due to the fact the earnings report is due out on Thursday and is anticipated to be negative. Nonetheless, last week's mini break of support on the weekly chart at 43.16 (closed last week at 42.97) was erased and the stock did rally intra-week to the 50-week MA as well as the 100-day MA up at 49.00. The weekly chart continues to show a bullish flag formation and a break above $50 will give an objective of the mid $67's. Support will now be quite strong at 44.73 (20-day MA) and at 45.57 (Thursday's low). The action this week has also given a flag formation on the daily chart and a break above 49.10 would give an objective of 53.30. It is likely that the stock will be under some pressure for the next couple of days but after the earnings report on Thursday, if it isn't more bearish than anticipated, it looks like the stock could take off. RMBS did nothing of consequence this past week but was generally on the defensive. It seems likely that this coming week some decision will be made and a new trend begin. The 50-day MA has been rising at it is now at 21.89, that is the same location as the previous low for the past 7 weeks. It is now evident that any downside below 21.89 will be negative and stops should be placed at 21.79. Nonetheless, the weekly chart formation continues to favor an upside breakout and it if it is going to happen, will likely begin to happen this week. XOM gapped above the 20-day MA it had broken below for the last 2 weeks and rallied close to a minor resistance level up at 63.09. The gap left the chart action of the last two weeks as an "island" formation that if it holds up, can be considered quite bullish. Nonetheless, "island" formations are extremely rare and therefore closure of the gap down at 91.30 is probable. If the stock does close the gap and gets below the 20-day MA, both at 91.30, on a daily closing basis, that would be seen as a strong negative and would likely generate a fast move down to 88.30. A stop at 93.19 is suggested, as a break above 93.09 will likely take the stock up to the $95 level and such a rally could generate new all-time highs shortly thereafter. If the stock fails here, the probability of a drop down to $85, or even $80, would increase strongly. AA broke out aggressively this past week and shows no recent resistance until the most recent high at 48.77 (47.35 on a daily closing basis) is reached. Nonetheless, the stock has broken above the $40 level on three different occasions over the past 10 years but on each occasion a drop of at least $10 was seen within 1-4 weeks. The previous weekly closes in the stock, when above $40, have been 42.31, 44.95 and 47.35. With Friday's close at 43.15, it seems the stock has more upside to go. This is a stock that will likely react in a small degree to the indexes and therefore a decision whether to liquidate the short at this time could depend on what the indexes do on Monday or Tuesday. The stock is without any support of consequence until the 39.87 level is seen. The 39.87 level is not considered a strong support as it is a previous high. Keep an eye on the 43.51 level as a possible intra-day high on Monday or Tuesday. DIOD closed this past week a few ticks below last week's close and still at the 50-week MA. No breakout or successful re-test of the MA can be said to have happened. Resistance, on a weekly closing basis, is very strong at this level and up to 27.67 and therefore it seems evident the stock is waiting to see what happens in the indexes before making a decision on what direction to take from here. The probabilities favor the downside as the stock has not built a strong support base from which to continue to move up. Nonetheless, trading has become limited to a $1 trading range between $27 and $28 or more exact to daily closes between 26.94 and 27.82. A close above or below either of these two levels will likely generate strong follow-through. HON broke out this week and made new all-time intra-day highs but was not able to give a clearly defined breakout signal as the stock closed within 10 ticks of the previous weekly closing high at 61.71. Like with so many other stocks, HON is waiting to see what the indexes will do this week before continuing to the upside or failing to follow through on the breakout. Since there is no resistance above the market, on a daily closing basis, decisions on whether to keep the short or not should be made based on the parameters given for the indexes. It is evident that the indexes will decide their fate at the latest by Tuesday and therefore HON should follow suit. Any close below 61.77, on a daily closing basis, would be considered a failure but if you get two closes below that level, the downside reaction could be strong. Recent intra-day high is 62.71 and a rally above that level should be cause for liquidation of the short position.
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1) XOM - Shorted at 62.83. Stop loss at 63.19. Stock closed on Friday at 92.67.
2) VLO - Liquidated long purchased at 50.61 at 46.65. Loss on the trade of $396 per 100 shares plus commissions.
3) FTEK - Liquidated longs averaged at 23.95 at 24.31. Profit on the trade of $72 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.
4) HON - Shorted at 60.79. No stop loss at present. Stock closed Friday at 61.81.
5) RIO - Liquidated longs averaged at 38.455 at 40.775. Profit on the trade of $486 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.
6) STP - Purchased at 44.90. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.97.
7) ELON - Liquidated longs averaged in at 13.22 at 12.67. Loss on the trade of $155 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.
8) RMBS - Purchased at 22.23. Stop loss lowered to 21.31. Stock closed on Friday at 23.59.
9) AA - Shorted at 39.63, at 39.93, and 40.49. Covered half of the positions at 41.48. Loss on the trade of $209 per 100 shares (1 1/2 mentions) plus commissions.
10) DIOD - Shorted at 27.72 and at 27.56. Averaged short at 27.64. Stop loss at 28.60. Stock closed on Friday at 27.47.
11) AA - Shorted AA at 42.50 Averaged in with 1/2 of the remaining positions at 40.68(2 mentions). Stop loss at 43.61. Stock closed on Friday at 43.15.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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