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Issue #86 
August 24, 2008 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Could End of the Month Window Dressing Help the DOW this Week?
DOW Friday close at 11628
The DOW once again closed lower this past week than the previous week thus confirming, for the second week in a row, that the re-test of the 11738 weekly closing high was successful. Nonetheless, the index was able to rally on Friday and continues to close above important weekly closing highs at 11577 and 11497. This means that no sell signal has yet been given. Much of the rally on Friday was based on a strong drop in price in the crude oil market as well as news that Lehman Brothers might be helped by Korean interests.
Based on the close this past week, it seems likely that the DOW is once more attempting an attack on the recent highs. Some follow through on Monday is expected, and a rally back up to the 11698-11760 level is likely. Nonetheless, by Wednesday the picture should be clearer and next week will likely be a decisive week.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is major at 11738. On an intra-week basis, there is some decent resistance at 11698 and a lot stronger at 11760. On a daily closing basis, though, the resistance is very strong at 11660 and major at 11782. Support, on an intra-day basis, will be decent at 11450-11476. On a daily closing basis support is strong at 11430 and very strong at 11349.
It is likely that this coming week the index will show some strength on Monday, and a rally up to at least the 11698 level will likely be seen. In addition, it is important to note that this is an end-of-the-month week and some "window dressing" is also likely. The price of oil bears watching this week as well as it could be a catalyst for drops or rallies. A drop in the price of oil below the $110 level could generate further buying in the DOW and perhaps an attempt to make new recent highs. Nonetheless, the resistance up at these levels is very strong and doubtful that just a drop in the price of oil could generate strong buying.
Nonetheless, based on the unexpected rally on Friday, the outlook for the DOW is back in question and under that kind of circumstance, small details could tip the scales in one direction or the other. The key, I believe, is whether the DOW can close above 11660 any day this week. If unable to do so, by the end of the week the index will likely get hammered and close near the lows, opening the door for strong follow through the following week.
It is interesting to note that September has generally been considered a bad month for the indexes. Going back to 1997, the DOW has seen the following ranges from high to low during the month of September: 450, 780, 1060, 830, 2120, 1260, 450, 580, 350, 420, and 900. In all 11 years there was only one year (2006) that the DOW was able to maintain an up-trend during the month. Also keep in mind that from 2002 through 2007 (the last 5 years) the index was in a bull market. On those years the DOW was not on a bull-run, the drops were pronounced.
Probable trading range for the week is 11698 to 11320. Probable close next Friday is 11497 or lower.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 2415
The NASDAQ was the recipient this week of the most selling among the indexes as the close on Friday was substantially lower than last week, when compared with the other two indexes. The previous week the index successfully tested the 50 and 100 week MA's and this past week the index also showed a successful re-test of the strong daily close resistance at 2457-2460.
Nonetheless, the index did not give a sell signal as it was able to close above a previous weekly high close of some consequence at 2413, thus leaving the door open for an attempt to rally this week.
Resistance, on a daily closing basis, is decent at 2419 from a previous intra-day high as well as from the 200-day MA. Minor resistance is then seen at 2462 and very strong between 2472-2483. On a daily closing basis, resistance will also be decent at 2440 (2447 intra-day). Minor psychological support at 2400 and strong support, on a daily closing basis is down at 2380 and again at 2372, both from a daily and weekly closing basis. Some support intra-day is also found at 2388.
It seems that on a daily closing basis, the 2380 level is going to be an importan as a close below that price will not only break the most recent low but also the 20 and 100-day MA's. That same level seems to be building itself into being a catalyst for a strong drop. On the upside, the 2447 level could also be an important level as the index should not be able to get above that high, if it is heading lower in September.
The index did not show the kind of strength the other indexes showed this week and if the index fails to get above 2419 on Monday (index closed at 2415), it is possible the indexes could trend lower all week.
Based on last week's range and on a chart objective of a drop this week back down to the 200-week MA (currently down at 2312), a possible range for the NASDAQ could be 2413-2312. If the stock is able to get above 2419 on Monday, and rally up to 2447, the range could be 2447 to 2350. The close next Friday is likely to be around 2368.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1292
The SPX closed lower this week than last week and gave the first indication that a top to this rally may have been found. Many analysts have mentioned the 1300 level as strong resistance and major pivot point. Having closed last week at 1298 and this week lower, that would signify that level was tested successfully.
As it is, the heavily financially laden index is having problems generating any kind of a meaningful rally. Without the financials establishing themselves as having found a bottom, it is unlikely the SPX will be able to rally any further. In addition, in contrast with the other indexes, the SPX has been totally unable to even get close to the 200-week MA (presently at 1326) that it broke below 8 weeks ago. Such failure in an up-trend is indicative of an index that is in problems.
Resistance is major at 1326, with the 200-week MA as well as from a previous high of consequence from May 2006. Minor resistance is also found at 1314, from several weekly highs also made in 2006, prior to the rally to 1326. On a weekly closing basis, the 1298 level must now be considered strong resistance as well. On an intra-day basis, the 1291-1293 has proven to be strong resistance as well. Decent support is found between 1270 and 1274 from 7 previous intra-day lows and 7 previous intra-day highs at that level. This week's low at 1261 must also be considered decent as that level has also proven to be of some consequence in the past. Below that level, on a weekly closing basis, there is some minor support at 1248 and major support at 1236 from a double bottom at that price.
The SPX saw a 40 point trading this past week but the index was unable to get above the 1300 level at any time. Based on the up close on Friday it is likely the bulls will try to rally the index on Monday and try to reach and surpass the 1300 level this week. A failure to accomplish that feat early in the week will likely be seen as a negative and strong selling should appear.
Probable trading range for the week is 1298 to 1248. Possible close next Friday is at 1267.
The rally on Friday was caused and stoked by the strong drop in oil prices as well as rumors of a buyout of Lehman by Korean interests. Nonetheless, the indexes are very close to resistance levels of consequence and without another major drop in the price of oil this coming week, it is unlikely the indexes will be able to continue their rally. The amount of follow through that will be seen on Monday, and perhaps Tuesday, should be a clue to as to the upside potential next week. Keep in mind, though, that it is the end of the month and window dressing will likely be seen, thus being a possible "monkey wrench" for the week.
In looking at the charts of all three indexes, I see minimal follow with possible highs on Monday of 11660 in the DOW, 2419 in the NASDAQ, and 1298 in the SPX. If these levels do in fact hold up on Monday, it is likely the indexes will be under strong selling pressure all week. With such a clear chart picture for the beginning of the week, decisions on how to approach the market the rest of the week should be a lot simpler.
Considering that September has usually been a very bad month for the indexes, it seems likely that whatever high is made this week will be the high for the next 4-6 weeks. With the market still in a sideways to bear trend, it makes sense to approach the indexes on the sell side.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the indexes likely to start heading lower, short positions will be the main thrust this week.
NUAN (Friday Close at 15.65)
NUAN began a strong up-trend in Aug06 from a low of 6.94 that culminated on Oct07 at 22.56. After a 46% correction back down to 12.45, the stock rallied strongly back up to re-test the previous high with a rally up to 21.47. The re-test was successful and stock proceeded to move back down to re-test the 12.45 low with a drop to 13.74. That re-test was also successful as well. The stock now finds itself near the important pivot point at $15.
Recently the stock, anticipating a bullish earnings report, rallied strongly from a low of 14.91 to a high of 17.98, only to be disappointed when the actual earnings report came out. The stock gave up all of its gains in just two days and has been waiting for some type of catalyst to generate a move out of this trading range. Nonetheless, this past week, the stock once again broke below the 100-week MA and is now back under selling pressure.
In addition, last week the stock gapped down and broke the neckline of a short-term head & shoulders formation and though the indexes generated a strong rally the last two days of the week, NUAN was unable to even close the gap or test the neckline at 15.91. The objective of the h&s formation is 13.91 and it is likely that as soon as the indexes top out this rally, that the stock will attempt to reach that objective.
Resistance, on a weekly closing basis, is now strong at 16.12 where the 100-week MA is currently located. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent between 16.20 and 16.35 from 3 previous daily high closes at that level. In addition, the 50 and 20 day MA's are currently at 16.02 and 16.10 respectively. On a daily closing basis, there is some decent to minor support at 15.45 and then again at 15.28. In addition to a strong psychological support at $15 there is also strong support, on a daily closing basis, is between 14.72 and 14.89. Below that, on a daily and weekly closing basis, the 13.46 level must also be considered strong support, as that was a previous and major closing high. The 100-week MA is down at 11.36.
At this time, the stock is under pressure and likely to be moving down at least to the $15 psychological support level. Nonetheless, if the indexes have the kind of down month that September usually brings, and the h&s formation is not negated or the resistance up at 16.20 broken, it is likely the stock will fulfill the objective of the h&s and perhaps even break down lower.
Sales of NUAN above 15.85 and using a stop loss at 16.30, on a stop close only basis, and having an objective of at least a drop down to 13.91 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
AXP (Friday close at 38.79)
AXP has been in a strong weekly downtrend since July of last year when it reached a high of 65.89. The stock did have a correction/short-covering rally up to 52.83 after it reached a strong support level at $40 with a drop down to 39.50. Nonetheless, the downtrend resumed several weeks ago when the stock broke below the $40 level in a convincing fashion.
AXP proceeded to trade sideways, using the $40 level as a pivot point, for a few weeks. 5 weeks ago, though, the stock gapped down below $40 and since then has been unable to close above that level at any time and now seems poised to not only resume the downtrend but drop down to the next support level of consequence.
Resistance, on a daily closing basis, is very strong at 39.17 (40.17 intra-day), as there is a double top at that price as well as the 50-day MA. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is decent at 39.07 and then again at 40.24. On a daily closing basis, support is strong between 36.40 and 37.01 and then again strong at 35.37. On a weekly closing basis, support is strong at 36.62. Nonetheless, below the 35.37-36.62 level there is no support of any kind, on a weekly closing basis, until 32.13 is reached.
The inability of AXP to rally above $40 for the past 5 weeks has weakened the chart substantially. During the last 2 weeks, since the intra-day high at 40.17 was made, the stock has had two attempts to rally that were stopped cold by the 50-day MA. Each attempt generated a lower high than the previous one, thus setting the stage for a concerted move to the downside.
Sales of AXP between Friday's closing price of 38.79 and up to 39.18 (50-day MA) and placing a stop loss at 40.23 and having an objective of $30 will offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
BA (Friday close at 65.25)
BA broke the neckline of a major Head & Shoulders formation back in June 25th after a negative earnings report. The break came in the form a gap down opening from 74.13 down to 72.79 and generated a fast drop down to the $62 level before the stock was able to generate any kind of a short-covering rally. During the past 8 weeks the stock has been trading in a sideways fashion between a low of 60.77 and a high of 69.50 but the chart formation is now again conducive to a resumption of the downtrend and fulfillment of the objective of the h&s neckline break.
It is interesting to note that BA has built a type of formation where a break in either direction will likely generate strong follow through in that direction and therefore this stock can be considered as a dual opportunity (both as a buy and as a sell). The formation presently in place looks like a diamond with the recent high and recent low in the middle of the 8-week trading range and the short sides being at the start and at the end of that 8-week trading range. In addition, the stock does show a possible inverted Head & Shoulders formation as well, which if broken could generate a strong move up as well.
On an intra-day basis, resistance is decent at 66.63 where the 50-day MA is currently located as well as at 67.23 where a decent previous intra-day high is found. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong at 67.86, as that is the most recent high daily close of consequence. Additional resistance is found at 69.26. On a daily closing basis, support is quite strong between 62.95 and 63.13 and equally strong down at 61.11. Below that the $60 level offers decent psychological support but you would have to go back to 2001 to find an actual support on the chart down at 55.69.
This past week BA tested the support at 62.95 and because it was successful the stock generated a strong rally on Friday up to 65.71. It is highly likely that based on the strength of that rally and close near the highs that the stock will rally some more on Monday and reach the 50-day MA at 66.63. Such a rally seems to be a good opportunity to short the stock.
Sales of BA between 66.60 and 67.13 and using a stop close only stop loss at 67.99 and having an objective of a drop down to at least the $60 level offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. If stopped out, you might want to consider reversing the position and purchasing the stock for an upside rally up to close the gap and reach the 100-day MA up at 74.13. Either way you are looking at a probable move either up or down of at least $6.
My preference at this time is for the downside as the stock is in a downtrend and the indexes are likely heading lower. Nonetheless, the chart is clear on the fact that a break of the recent neckline of what seems to be an inverted head & shoulders formation would likely generate such a move up.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
CAT (Friday closing price 70.27)
CAT began a strong rally in January from a low 59.50 that culminated in May at 85.96. After a short period of sideways action the stock began to break down and less than 8 weeks later the stock had come all the way down to 65.85. The stock then had a 5-day rally back up to the $75 level that fizzled. A correction back down to the 67.19 then ensued. The stock is now in a holding pattern waiting for some new direction.
On the weekly chart, CAT shows a double top at 85.28 that looms imposing. In addition, the drop from $80 to $65 was a major failure and put the stock on the defensive. With the indexes likely to be heading lower in September, it has become likely the stock will not only be testing the recent low at 65.85 but perhaps even the 200-week MA at 64.76. It is also possible, because of the double top, that the weekly up-trend may be in danger of being broken and the stock get into a sideways trend between $60 and $80 for the next few months.
On the weekly closing chart there is very strong resistance between 73.16 and 74.49. Nonetheless, on a more recent basis, The stock has also built a decent resistance level between 70.90 and 71.63 from three recent weekly high closes at that price as well as the 100-day MA. Using the daily closing chart, resistance is very strong between 71.76 and 72.07 from 4 important daily closes as well as from the 50-day MA. Support, on a weekly closing basis, is decent between 67.52 and 68.63 with 5 weekly low closes in the last 2 years located in that range. Below that level the 200-week MA is currently at 64.76 and major support is found between 62.61 and 63.16 from three important low weekly closes at that price. On the daily closing chart, support is quite strong between 67.00 and 67.50 from 3 important daily closes in that range.
After the recent correction from $65 back up to $75 the stock has "died on the vine" around the $70 level and seems to be waiting for something to happen in order to generate a new trend. The chart is tilted toward downward movement being the most likely and with the likelihood of the indexes heading down in September, the chances of CAT breaking down are high.
Sales of CAT between 71.00 and 72.00 and using a 72.17 stop close only stop loss and having a minimum objective of reaching the 200-week MA at 64.76 offers a risk/reward ratio of at least 6-1. Possibilities of a drop down to the $60-$62 level are good and that would increase the risk/reward ratio of the trade.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks
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Open Positions and stop loss changes
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| NUAN broke below the neckline of a somewhat skewed Head & Shoulders formation this past week but did not drop aggressively due to the strength of the indexes during the latter part of the week. Nonetheless, the stock was not even able to rally back up to the neckline at 15.91 and continues to look bearish. The stock also closed, once again, below the 100-week MA and is back under pressure. The inability of even getting up to 16.00 during the past 3 days and filling the gap between 15.87 and 16.00 must be considered bearish. It is likely that next week, after a couple of up day's in the indexes on Monday and Tuesday, the stock will get down to at least the $15 level where the support is decent. Objective of the break of the neckline on the H&S formation is 13.91. A daily close above 16.20 will likely annul the break and generate further upside. STP had a major week when it the company announced a major contract being signed as well as receiving an unexpectedly strong earnings report with very positive forward guidance. The stock was able to break above all near-term and near-by resistance and rallied in excess of 30% this past week. On Friday, the stock closed just below a strong weekly closing resistance at 46.89. It is likely that resistance level, on a weekly closing basis, will hold up next week and a correction back down to either the 42.97 or 40.24 level will occur. Nonetheless, on the daily closing chart, the same 46.89 level is considered strong resistance but intra-day, resistance is not seen until the 48.20 level is seen and that is considered minor. Major resistance, on an intra-day basis, is found up between 49.10 and 49.60. On a daily closing basis, there is some support at 44.87 and then much stronger down at 41.60 (41.10 intra-day). It seems likely the stock will continue to be very volatile next week and likely to trade between 41.10 and 49.10. Overall, the breakout is very bullish but for the next couple of weeks, the stock is likely to trade within the range mentioned above. YGE had not followed the breakout of STP until Friday when the stock broke above the strong daily close resistances at 16.99 and 17.53 as well as above the weekly close resistance at 16.73. It is now highly likely that the stock will rally up to the $19 level where the 20-week and 100-day MA's are currently located. Support will now be strong between 16.71 and 17.02. Should te stock be able to get above 19.16, it could run up to the $22 level where the 200-day MA is currently located as well as some previous daily close resistance level of some consequence. There is some resistance at 20.52, on a daily closing basis (21.30 intra-day), but that resistance is somewhat minor to decent. In reality, the stock should rally up to the $19 and then correct back down to the $17, for the time being. Nonetheless, keep in mind that the solar industry is an emerging market and the upside is totally open. If there are any surprises, it will be to the upside. VLO for the past 6 weeks has been building a "coil" formation (consistent lower highs and higher lows) from which a breakout in either direction will likely be very strong. The "coil", when broken on either direction, offers a rally or drop of approximately $6.60. The most recent parameters of the coil are 35.15 on the upside and 32.24 on the downside. Such a formation is rare and should be played aggressively. The "coil" could turn out to be nothing but any breakout or breakdown at this time will likely generate further movement in whichever direction it goes. The weekly closing chart does not give a clue but the weekly high low chart seems to be leaning toward a downside breakdown with a 60-40 probability. Nonetheless, until the stock breaks out of the "coil", no direction is clearly defined. Stop loss orders on long positions should be placed at 32.14. JBL went back down to the minor weekly closing support level at 16.95 and was able to close above it. Unfortunately on Friday the stock was unable to get above the previous day's high at 17.40 (high of the day was 17.35) so it cannot be said that the downside is over as the day was an inside day. Nonetheless, the green close on the daily chart means the 20-day MA was successfully re-tested and higher levels should be seen next week. Resistance, on a daily closing basis, is strong at 18.42-18.50 but there is a triple top at that price and those normally get taken out. Objective of this rally continues to be the $20 level (20.20 to be exact). Daily and weekly trend continues to be up and with the correction back down this past week, the stock could be ready to launch the next rally to test the $20 level. A close below 17.05 would now be negative and an intra-day drop below 16.17 would be bearish. RIO had a reversal week this week but was unable to make it into a "key" reversal as the stock failed to close above last week's intra-week high. Nonetheless, the reversal itself was very positive and likely means the stock has found a major bottom, or at least a good short-term one (2-4 weeks). The stock did not confirm the break of the 100-week MA, as it was able to close above it this week. In addition, the stock closed above the previous high close of consequence at 25.97 thus giving signs more upside is to come. Nonetheless, the breakaway/runaway gap did not hold up and drops down to close the first gap at 25.76-26.04 are now highly likely. Some minor support will be found at 25.64 and now very strong support will be at 24.40. Drops down to that level are possible and maybe even probable, nonetheless, they should be aggressively bought. Resistance will now be decent at 27.75 and very strong at 30.79. Rallies up to the $30 level are likely to be seen within the next two - three weeks. KGC had a sharp rally after the inflation numbers came out higher than anticipated and oil spiked up. The stock gapped up but on Friday began giving up its gains and the stock worked itself back into the gap area. Nonetheless, the re-test of the support level at $15 (both psychological as well as from a major previous high) was successful. In addition, the stock also failed to confirm the break of the 100-week MA when it closed above the line on Friday. The 100-week MA is currently located at 16.30 at present. Drops back down to between 15.39-15.52 are possible this week but they should be bought. Resistance, on a weekly closing basis, is decent at 18.26 (previous minor weekly high close and previous major weekly low close). Nonetheless, previous low closes are not strong resistances and on the weekly chart there is no strong resistance until the $20 level is reached where the 20 and 50 week MA's are currently located. Even though intra-day drops as low as 15.39 could be seen, the 16.50 level, on a daily closing basis is a support that should hold. Stock should be aggressively purchased on dips down to 15.39-15.52. OSK had a very negative week and did close on a new 5-year weekly closing low. The stock was able to hold itself above a recent intra-day low at 15.19 but was not able to generate any upside movement of consequence. Intra-day rallies up to 15.93 are possible but with the stock closing in new 5-years daily and weekly closing lows, the pressure will continue to be strong. No support in sight until the 13.75 level is seen. Possibility of a minor rally on Monday and Tuesday, if the indexes rally, but by the end of the week, the stock should be under pressure again. HRB was able to maintain its weekly up-trend with another higher weekly close this week. Nonetheless, between 25.30 and 25.91, on a weekly closing basis, resistance is very strong. On an intra-week basis, resistance is also very strong at 25.75 and the stock did see an intra-week high two weeks ago at 25.59 and this past week at 25.57. The stock is having problems going higher but has not yet given a signal to liquidate long positions and therefore is able to maintain itself at these high levels. The stock did close today in the red, albeit only by 6 ticks. Nonetheless, this may be considered as a successful re-test of the most recent high daily close at 25.41. At this time, it seems that the slightest negative, such as the indexes beginning to fall, will be a catalyst for a strong downward correction.
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1) JBL - Purchased at 16.99. Averaged long at 17.09 (4 mentions). Stop loss raised to 16.89 on a stop close only basis. Stock closed on Friday at 17.31.
2) VLO - Purchased at 33.75. Averaged long at 31.89 (3 mentions). Stop loss raised to 32.14. Stock closed on Friday at 33.66.
3) HPQ - Liquidated shorts at 44.83. Loss on the trade of $40 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
4) OSK - Shorted at 17.33. Stop loss lowered to 17.66. Stock closed on Friday at 15.66.
5) SNDA - Covered shorts at 27.44. Shorted at 27.43. Loss on the trade of $1 per 100 shares plus commissions.
6) STP - Averaged long at 43.65 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.75.
7) ALO - Liquidated at an average of 23.71. Averaged short at 22.43. Loss on the trade of $256 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
8) YGE - Averaged long at 19.156 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.86.
9) HON - Covered short at 49.84. Shorted at 52.22. Profit on the trade of $236 per 100 shares minus commissions.
10) RIO - Purchased at 24.53. Averaged long at 26.43. Liquidated at 27.02. Profit on the trade of $177 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.
11) TRA - Liquidated at 48.40. Averaged long at 45.44. Profit on the trade of $357 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.
12) KGC - Purchased at 15.63. Stop loss at 14.60 on a stop close only basis. Stock closed on Friday at 16.61.
13) HRB - Shorted at 25.23. Stop loss at 26.00. Stock closed on Friday at 25.21.
14) RIO - Long at 26.43. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 26.63.
15) STP - Liquidated at 41.47. Purchased at 36.03. Profit on the trade of $540 per 100 shares minus commissions.
16) HPQ - Shorted at 45.70. Covered at 46.22. Loss on the trade of $52 per 100 shares plus commissions.
17) KGC - Liquidated at 17.11. Purchased at 15.63. Profit on the trade of $148 per 100 shares minus commissions.
18) AMZN - Shorted at 84.58. Covered shorts at 85.13. Loss on the trade of $55 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. A must have for chart aficionados! |
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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