Issue #76 ![]() June 15, 2008 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Downside Objectives Reached?
DOW Friday close at 12307
With this week's drop to 12077 and strong close on Friday, it can be said that most of the downside objectives have been reached in the DOW and that it is now probable that the index will be trading with an upward bias for the next week or two. Nonetheless, the charts still seem to show that a drop down to the 11940 level has a good probability of happening, sometime in the next few weeks.
This past week, on two different days, the DOW tested the 12069 previous intra-day and daily closing support. This was one of the possible objectives on the downside. After being unable to break below that level, the index generated a rally on Friday and closed above the most recent high close at 12290. Such a rally and close above a previous minor resistance level, seems to show that the unrelenting pressure the index has been under has diminished and that rallies are now possible and even probable.
On a daily closing basis, resistance is minor at 12393 and a bit stronger at 12480. Resistance is quite strong at 12549/12552, from two previous high closes as well as from the 20 and 100 day MA's. The intra-week/intra-day chart shows decent resistance at 12476 level (20-week MA) and at 12518 (previous major low of consequence). Support will be decent at 12182-12210, minor at 12155, decent again at 12066-12077, and very strong at 11940.
The DOW traded over a 292 points range this past week and looking at the support and resistance levels in the chart, it is likely that a trading range between 12182/12210 to 12480/12518 will be seen this coming week.
Trading in this range will be just that, trading. as it will not likely give any clue as to what the indexes will be doing thereafter. It is still highly probable that the outside parameters of the sideways trading range I have mentioned often in the past, between 12743 and 11940, will both be seen, at some point over the next 2-3 weeks. For the next 2-3 weeks, the thing to expect from the DOW are short-term movements in both directions. The overall trend of the DOW is still cloudy and undecipherable.
Take a close look at 12192 and at 12369, this coming week. A break of either of those two levels will likely generate follow through in that direction. With the DOW having closed at 12307, and on the highs of the day, the 12369 level is likely to be the first to be tested. It is possible that for Monday, both of those levels will be seen and on Tuesday a break above or below will happen, thus generating further movement to the support/resistance levels mentioned above.
NASDAQ Friday Close at 2454
The weekly chart in the NASDAQ continues to show a bullish divergence over the DOW weekly chart and it is almost like looking a two completely different charts all together. Even though the NASDAQ closed lower this week than last week and the NASDAQ did just the opposite, the index was able to hold above the two previous weekly low closes at 2445 and also above the 100-week MA. The possibility of a bullish flag formation was kept alive with this action.
This past week, the NASDAQ did break and close below its daily closing support levels at 2441-2445 but with the close on Friday above 2445, that breakdown was negated. The index is now back into a bullish outlook with the trading parameters for the week clearly defined.
Resistance, on a daily closing basis, must now be considered quite strong at 2483-2489 as that is where there are two important previous daily high closes, a previous daily low close, as well as where the 20-day MA is located. On the weekly chart, resistance is strong at 2503-2515 and very strong at 2521/2523 where the previous weekly high close as well as the 50-week MA is located. Support, on a daily closing basis, is now strong again at 2440-2445, and very strong at 2390-2413. Major support, on a weekly closing basis continues to be at 2373.
The NASDAQ chart is looking more and more like the "key" to whatever the indexes will do for the few months. The weekly closing prices are being kept between the 50 and the 100 week MA but those averages continue to shrink into each other and it certainly seems likely that within the next 3-5 weeks, at most, that one of the other will be broken decisively.
One additional factor to consider is that the NASDAQ had a major intra-week low back in August 13th of last year at 2387. That low was made just prior to an 11-week rally that took the index up to a 7-year high at 2862. This week's intra-week low was 2388 and with the weekly chart formation looking quite bullish, if the NASDAQ is able to close above 2521, on a weekly closing basis, a rally up to at least the 2707 level is likely to be seen. By the same token, if the weekly support level at 2445 is broken decisively then much of the bullishness of the chart formation will be gone.
I am probably jumping the gun by mentioning all these possibilities, as none of them are likely to happen over the next couple of weeks. Nonetheless, I do believe it is important to know what is at stake and how the NASDAQ seems to be playing, in the charts, an integral part of what the indexes may end up doing.
For this coming week, I expect the NASDAQ to trade between a low of 2430 and a high of 2485 and for nothing to be decided.
S&Poors 500 Friday close at 1360
The SPX ended up having an uneventful weekly close, as it was neither higher nor lower than last week. Nonetheless, a lot was accomplished during the week as the index traded all the way down near-to what a lot of analysts consider to be a level that is major support, between 1324 and 1331 (low of the week was 1331). On the weekly closing chart, though, nothing was accomplished as the index was able to maintain itself above the 20-week MA and no decision on the index's future was determined.
The drop down to 1331 did fulfill the minimum drop needed to be considered a major re-test of support and if the index closes higher this coming Friday, it is possible that some upside momentum will be re-established. Like with the DOW there is still the possibility of one more drop down to the 1325 level, to come over the next 1-3 weeks. That drop, though, is not likely to happen this coming week.
Resistance is minor but evident at 1361, as that is where the 100-day MA is currently located. Above that level, there is no resistance of any consequence until 1383-1388 is reached. At that level the resistance is strong. Major resistance is at 1417-1428 where the 50 and 100 week MA's are located. Support is minor at 1350 and then strong at 1331 and 1325. Major support at 1311.
With the close on Friday on the highs of the day and right at the 20 week and 100 day MA's, it seems likely to assume the index will continue trading above those MA's on Monday. If that happens, a rally up to 1384 will likely occur. It is of some importance that the SPX manage a higher close next week or else the downside will be tested strongly for the next few weeks to come.
The chart is not giving a clear sign of what is to come as most of the downside has been accomplished but the upside looks to be an uphill climb as well. Possible trading range for the week could be 1350 to 1384.
Based on the close on Friday, it seems highly likely that this coming week there will be more upside than downside movement, and even then the downside movement will likely be very limited. In addition, with the Fed meeting to come the week after, it is not likely that any decisions of consequence regarding the trend in the market will be made this week.
Most of the downside objectives have been reached and with so much bad news already out in the market, it is difficult to imagine what else could happen to generate further downside. Already it is being anticipated the Fed will raise interest rates at the next Fed Meeting, the consumer confidence numbers came out this past week at 25-year lows, and the financial companies were once again in trouble this past week. None of this information was able to generate a break of major support, even though the indexes were under strong pressure all week. It seems probable to think that at least until the Fed meeting next week, that the indexes are likely to show some strength. Even if the Fed does raise interest rates
next week, it now seems likely that the recent lows will hold or only be broken by a small margin.
The probability of the stock indexes being in a sideways range continues to be strong but the possibility of a strong rally in a few weeks has increased.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Having the indexes reach most of the downside objectives and seeing a decent short-covering rally on Friday, it is likely that this coming week the market will be supported. Long positions in oversold stocks will be the preferred way to go.
VLO (Friday Close at 44.84)
VLO is a stock that depends greatly on crack spreads (differential between crude oil prices and the cost of refining the oil). With the price of oil having been heading substantially higher, the refiners profits have dropped and therefore the price of the stock has dropped. The best period of the year for refiners has always been the summer and with the possibility that oil prices may be reaching a temporary high, it is likely that the price of the stock will head higher.
Two weeks ago the stock was strong and was able to get up to 53.94 and a re-test of the 100-week MA. Nonetheless, with crude oil making new all-time highs this past week, VLO reversed downward and proceeded to make new 34-months lows. Nonetheless, the stock was able to close out the week without closing below the previous low weekly close and that action is likely indicative the stock may have found a bottom.
Resistance is minor at 45.92 and then no resistance of consequence until 50.77 (50.12 on a daily closing basis). Major resistance will again be the 100-day MA, which is currently located at 52.00. Support is the recent intra-day low at 43.06 but on a daily closing basis, support is strong at 44.42 and on a weekly closing basis at 44.56. There is no major support at the present time.
With the summer traditionally being the strongest period for refiners and the Saudi's likely to begin taking steps to curb the craziness of the price rise seen recently, it seems likely the stock will see a rally from these levels. The failure-to-follow-through seen with Friday's close is seen as a signal that it is unlikely the stock will see further drops in price.
Purchases of VLO at Friday's closing price of 44.84 and placing a stop loss at 44.32, on a stop close only basis, and having an objective of 50.77 will offer a 12-1 risk/reward ratio. If an intra-day stop is desired it should be placed at 42.96 and the risk/reward ratio would drop to 3-1.
My rating on the trade is an 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
SVNT (Friday close at 23.74)
SVNT is a stock that has developed a medical process that will help "gout" sufferers. The drug is presently going through FDA approval after having passed Phase III clinical trials and when that happens, it is anticipated the company will be receiving approximately $720 million dollars per year in income. Approval is likely but not certain and therefore new highs have been consistently met with a strong bouts of profit taking. Presently the stock is in one of the dips since a new all time high at 28.10 was made.
The chart shows a strong weekly up-trend and all recent dips have stayed above previous weekly low closes. As long as that continues, dips should be aggressively bought.
Support is very decent at 22.50-22.75 from 10 previous and important intra-day lows seen between those two levels over the past 6 months. On a daily closing basis, major support is found at 21.75 as that is the most recent and important low daily close. On a weekly closing basis, though, the 22.69 level is major support as that is the most recent low weekly close. On a daily closing basis, resistance is strong between 24.16 and 24.66 and on an intra-day basis, resistance is decent between 25.00 and 25.50. Major resistance is the all-time high made two weeks ago at 28.10 (26.88 on a daily closing basis).
SVNT is showing a short-term bearish formation that is likely to generate a drop down to the 22.60-22.75 support level sometime this coming week. At that price not only is the support strong on the weekly chart, but also is where the 50-day MA currently resides. This is not a stock that follows the indexes very much and therefore must be played on its own merits.
Purchases of SVNT between 22.60 and 22.80 and placing a stop loss at 22.45 and having an objective of at least 26.88 will offer a risk/reward ratio of over 10-1.
My rating on the trade is an 8 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10). The only problem I can see with the trade is that the stock may not drop down to the desired entry point. Stepping up to purchase it here is not an option for now.
JNPR (Friday close at 24.19)
JNPR is a stock that I recently shorted (made a profit) but got out because the weekly chart has been looking bullish overall. This past week the support level at 26.00 broke and the stock took a strong tumble back down to the major support area just above 23.50. At this price the stock looks like a very good risk/reward play.
Like with the indexes, JNPR seems to have fulfilled almost all of its downside objectives and since this is a stock that is likely to follow the indexes closely, will likely rally if the indexes rally, as expected.
Support is very strong, on a weekly intra-week basis, at 23.40. That is a previous intra-week low as well as where the 200-week MA is currently located. In using the daily chart, there is very strong support intra-day between 23.43 and 23.98. On a daily closing basis support is strong at 24.26 and major at 22.73. Resistance is quite decent between 25.50 and 26.00 and stronger at 27.10-27.89. There is also major resistance up at 29.39-29.45 as there are three intra-week highs at that level, nonetheless, when there are more than two (double top) the area becomes a magnet if the stock is strong. Major resistance is up at $30-$31 and would be the objective of a strong rally.
JNPR is a stock that moves in conjunction with the indexes and since it traded down to its major intra-day support on Friday, and closed just a couple of ticks below its strong daily closing support area, it seems the stock is ready to rally this week.
The $26 area is a major pivot point and if the stock is able to get above that level, a rally up and above the triple top at 29.38 is likely.
Purchases of JNPR between 24.04 and 24.19 and using a stop loss at 23.30, on a stop close only basis, and having an objective of 30.25 will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. If an intra-day stop is desired (not on a stop close only basis), the stop can be placed at 22.13. The risk/reward ratio would drop to 3-1.
My rating on the trade is a 7 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
SNDA (Friday closing price 30.06)
SNDA is a wide ranging stock that often moves in conjunction with the indexes. Just 5 weeks ago the stock saw a high of 38.24 and this past week the stock traded as low at 28.00 (had I been looking, that level was a major purchase point). The $10 drop in price was largely due to the drop in the Chinese stock market as this is a Chinese stock. SNDA is one of the top stocks in the online gaming industry and, over the past year, has shown itself to be one of the strong producers of income in that industry.
With this recent drop down to a very strong intra-week support level down at 27.80 and with the stock indexes likely to be rallying this week (perhaps have found their lows for the next few months), it is likely the Chinese stock market will stage a rally as well. SNDA should be a benefit greatly from such a rally.
Support, on a weekly closing basis, is very strong at 29.45-29.50 and on an intra-week basis at 27.80. Resistance is decent at 30.95 from a previous high as well as from the 100-day MA. No resistance above that level until the 32.27 to 32.82 level is reached where the 20 and 50-day MA's are located as well as the 200-day MA respectively. Major resistance on the weekly chart is now shown to be between 35.30 and 35.70.
With the indexes now looking to rally and the stock having come down $10 over the past few weeks, it seems likely that a rally up to the $35 could occur. In addition, it is also possible, depending on what the NASDAQ does, that a major rally might begin in about 3-4 weeks. If that were to happen, it is likely that not only the recent high at $38 would be seen but perhaps another attempt to get above $40 would also occur.
Purchases of SNDA between 29.45 and 29.55 and placing a stop loss at 27.70 and having an objective of 35.70 will offer a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 7.5 (on a scale of 1-10 with the strongest probability rating being 10).
I have one additional mention (HOKU) that has a very good risk/reward ratio but a low probability rating. If interested, ask me about it.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks
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Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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NUAN continued its recent breakdown but the stock has reached levels of support that are quite strong. The 100-week MA as well as strong previous weekly closing support is found down at 15.40. With the low this past week at 15.88, it can be said that it's possible the downside objective has been reached or will be reached soon. In looking at the weekly chart, it is likely the stock will be strong this week and rallies up to the 17.89-18.21 level could occur. Nonetheless, the area between 18.00 and 18.42 is major resistance and not likely to be broken this week or next and therefore long positions should be considered for liquidation if the rally occurs. Whether the stock reaches the 15.00-15.40 level, during the next few weeks, or whether just a re-test of the low this week at 15.88 is seen, is not something I can evaluate right now. Certainly, though, if a rally occurs this week, it is likely that a re-test of the 15.88 low will be seen before the stock starts trading higher. Support this coming week is likely to be found at 16.40 and for the week, that would be a good buying point looking for rallies up to the 18.27 level. ELON tested the 50-day MA with the drop down to 13.47 this past week and closed right at the 100-week MA at 14.02 on Friday. The stock seems poised for a strong move upward and break of the daily closing resistance at 15.20. With the green close on Friday and the indexes looking like they will have follow-through on Monday, it seems that if ELON is able to get above Wednesday's high at 14.47 that buyers will come in strongly. A break below the low of the week at 13.47 would be seen as a negative and could generate drops below $12. That means that a stop loss at 13.37 should be placed. Possible upside objective for the week could be as high as 17.39 but expect resistance to be seen at 15.55 and at 16.56. Probabilities of a rally upward this week are high. STP closed on Friday above the previous week's close at 40.24 and confirmed that close as a successful re-test of the 200-week MA. Such a successful re-test could generate strong moves upward in the stock during the next few weeks (look at what ELON did when it confirmed a successful re-test of the 200-week MA). Resistance will be decent up at 42.10-42.20 as that is the most recent high peak, a previous high close of importance, as well as where the 20-day MA is located. With the stock having closed on the high of the day the possibility of a gap opening does exist and this is an area where a gap opening could occur. STP still shows an open gap down at 30.80-31.79 and that gap needs a sister gap so that it can be considered a breakaway gap and runaway gap. The stock did trade higher after hours on Friday and therefore a gap above 42.10 on Monday would be a strong buy signal and one that should be chased. As far as support is concerned, there is now going to be strong support at 38.69 (intra-day) and at 38.96 on a daily closing basis. There is some minor resistance at 42.50 but other than the MA's (the 50-day at 43.20 and the 100-day at 44.00) there is no resistance of consequence until 46.89, on a daily closing basis. Keep in mind, though, that the MA's have not been of consequence during the past few months. YGE was unable to reverse the weekly downtrend as it closed lower than last week's close, nonetheless, on the daily chart the stock negated the break of the daily closing support at 18.32 with a close at 18.85. This is a signal that the downside is likely over. Resistance will likely be quite strong between 20.00 and 20.62 but a close above 20.79 would be a strong buy signal. Support should now be very strong at 18.10 intra-day and on a daily closing basis at 18.32. There is some minor resistance at 18.95 that needs to be watched as a failure to get above that level would put the pressure back on the stock. ORB closed on Friday at a very important level at 23.50. That is where the 50-week MA, as well as a major previous high, are located. There is very decent support, on an intra-day basis, between 22.91 and 23.09 and with Friday's low at 23.03, it can be said that level was tested. Resistance will now be quite decent at 24.15-24.65 where the 200-day and 100-day, respectively, are seen. In addition, a rally above 24.42 would mean a possible reversal of the recent weekly downtrend. as that was this week's high. In addition, the $25 level is a major pivot point and if the stock is able to get above that level, a move of at least $2 would likely ensue. The weekly up-trend is still intact and if the stock is able to close above 25.54 on a Friday, the probabilities of the up-trend resuming would be strong. For this week it is likely the stock will trade between 23.14-24.42 or 23.50-24.65. ANGO is at a very pivotal level and its likely that the stock will make a decisive decision this week as far as the trend for the next few weeks. Keep in mind that this is not a stock that moves in conjunction with the indexes so whatever they decide to do is not likely to help or hinder ANGO. The daily chart looks quite bearish with an inverted flag formation that if broken (a break below 14.50) would project down to 13.60. Nonetheless, the stock has been trading all week right above the 50-day and 20-week MA and if able to keep above those lines could generate a rally. A break above 15.15 would be positive for the stock. Stop loss order can now be placed at 15.25 thus locking in profits. A break below 14.50 should be reason to add positions as the objective of the trade continues to be closure of the gap down at 11.88. FTEK broke fast and aggressively this past week with no news having come out to support the break. All support levels of consequence were broken intra-week but on Friday the stock showed a reversal pattern by breaking down strongly during the day and closing in the green. In addition, the close was higher than the previous days' close, which was right on the 100-day MA, and that could signal that the 100-day MA was successfully tested. A green close on Monday is necessary to confirm, as the close on Friday was only 9 ticks above the previous day and not enough to confirm the test as successful. The drop during the week, though, was quite negative and it is evident the stock must now go through a process of backing and filling over the next few weeks to re-generate buyer confidence even if the stock is able to confirm the successful re-test of the 100-day MA. Resistance will now be quite strong at 22.84 while support is only minor down at $20. If the stock is able to close in the green on Monday, then the 21.21 level, on a daily closing basis, will become strong support. Possible trading range for the Monday is 21.20 to 22.84 but if the stock opens below 21.00 then that trading range will likely be negated. One last thing, if the stock opens above 21.53 and does not trade below it, the stock could have a much stronger week than I have mentioned above. The reason is simple, as the weekly chart shows that the 21.53 was the lowest intra-week point for the last 10-weeks and when that level was broken, the stock collapsed. If the stock is able to keep itself above 21.53 all this week, the break will be totally negated and the "rubber band" theory would kick in, giving the stock the potential for a rally up to the $27 area this week. Lots of "ifs" but with action this stock did this past week, without fundamental news, all of this is possible. VLO broke below the lowest intra-week point since August 2005 but was not able to make a new 34-month weekly low close. That must be seen as a positive. With the markets pivoting all this week on high oil prices and yet oil failing to go higher on Friday, and the Saudi's talking about increasing oil production to offset the recent craziness in prices, it seems that VLO might just have been a good purchase here. The previous low weekly close is 44.56. On Friday the stock closed at 44.84 thus negating the intra-week break down to 43.06, below the previous intra-day low at 44.55. Minor resistance at 45.92 and the nothing until 50.77 other than the 20-day MA at 48.50 and the 50-day at 49.20. Keep in mind that these two MA's have not been of consequence at all for last 3 months. Should the stock be able to get above the minor resistance at 45.92, it is likely to run aggressively up to the $50 level within a day or two at most. Stops should be placed at 42.96 but based on the late week action, it is unlikely they will be triggered. RIO broke below decent weekly support levels this past week and looks like it is barely holding, using the 200-day MA as the support. Nonetheless, the stock was able to close in the green on Friday thus increasing the possibility that the test of the 200-day MA was successful. A further green close on Monday is necessary to confirm. In looking at the intra-week trading, the chart does have a bearish short-term formation that if Friday's low at 34.06 is broken would project a drop down to 30.00-30.50. Stops should be placed at 33.96. Resistance is quite evident at 35.74 from the 100-day MA and at 36.22 from a previous intra-day high as well as daily close. Strong resistance will now be found at 38.22-38.72 from previous major intra-day highs as well as from the 20 and 50 day MA's. It is evident the stock needs to rally on Monday as any further weakness will generate strong selling. A rally this week up to the $36 level is needed to begin to negate the small but clearly evident inverted flag formation. Weekly chart requires a close above 36.50 on a Friday, to re-stimulate the upside. ITG was able to confirm the successful re-test of the 200-week MA as well as the previous weekly low closes at 37.09 and 37.45 with the close on Friday at 39.39. Probable trading range for this coming week is 38.00-42.00. Decent resistance, on a weekly closing basis, starts at 40.52 and then gets strong at 42.10 and 42.50. A close on a Friday above 42.50 will likely thrust the stock up to the $45 level. In using the daily charts, resistance will be decent just above the $40 level but it does seem likely the stock will get up there this week. Support is decent at 39.10 and then again at 38.45. If the stock is able to get up and close near or just above $40 support, on a daily closing basis, will then be strong at 39.44. A lot will depend on what this stock does this coming week but this is a stock that normally runs with the indexes and if the indexes are strong then ITG will likely be strong as well.
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1) VLO - Purchased at 44.56. Stop loss at 42.96. Stock closed on Friday at 44.83.
2) ANGO - Shorted at 15.90. Stop Loss lowered to 15.25. Stock closed on Friday at 14.70.
3) AA - Shorted stock at 40.25. Ccovered short at 39.20. Profit on the trade of $105 per 100 shares minus commissions.
4) ELON - Purchased at 11.66. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.00.
5) ORB - Purchased at 25.39. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.50.
6) STP - Purchased at 42.40 and again at 47.80. Averaged in at 45.03 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.24.
7) RIO - Purchased at 36.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.57.
8) YGE - Purchased at 18.25. Averaged 21.90. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.85.
9) RHT - Covered Short at 22.37. Shorted at 24.78. Profit on the trade of $231 per 100 shares minus commissions.
10) HAL - Covered Short at 50.48. Averaged short at 48.42. Loss on the trade of $428 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
11) FTEK - Purchased at 20.80 and again at 21.59. Averaged long at 23.01. No Stop Loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.30.
12) ITG - Purchased at 36.37. Stop loss at 36.81 stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 39.39.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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