Issue #402
November 16, 2014
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Fundamental Outlook Remains Positive but Upside Action is Becoming Labored!

DOW Friday closing price - 17634

The DOW made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high this past week. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 17705 will be seen this week.

The trading action in the DOW has slowed down significantly, having generated successively smaller trading ranges the past 5 weeks (805, 551, 666, 297, and 169 points last week). The shrinking trading ranges but still upward action does suggest the index is reaching levels where selling interest is starting to be found. By the same token, the decreasing volatility that has been seen also suggests that the index is not yet ready to generate a correction unless some unexpected negative fundamental piece of information comes out.

To the upside, the DOW has no previous high resistance but the 17700 level that was reached this past week does offer some "general" resistance as it is 300 points below the 18000 level. Additional resistance may be found at 17828 as that is the upside objective of the "rubber-band" theory, having spiked down 478 below the previous important intra-week low at 16333 and suggesting that the index will move up the same amount of points above the previous all-time high at 17350.

To the downside, the DOW shows very minor intra-week support at last week's low at 17536. Below that level, the index does not show any kind of intra-week support until the 17000 demilitarized zone is reached. Nonetheless, on a daily and weekly closing basis, support will be found at the previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 17278.

The probabilities for this week, and perhaps next, seem to favor the DOW showing some choppy 2-way action but still with a slight upward bias. Upside objective is still 17828 but the 17700 level is not going to be easy to break. Last week's low at 17536 is now a bit of a pivot point though it is not yet "established" as such. A break of that low could generate some selling but the probabilities do not yet favor that scenario even if the level is broken. It is likely that the index will trade between 17500 and 17828 for the next few weeks with a decent chance of additional selling being seen and a drop down to 17278 to test the previous high.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4688

The NASDAQ made yet another new 14-year high this past week as well reached the all-time high monthly close at 4696 that was made on February of the year 2000. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4703 is likely to be seen this week.

The NASDAQ outperformed the other indexes this week and that likely means the traders are buying speculative stocks once again, which does support the idea the index could be making a run to the all-time intra-week high at 5132.

It should be mentioned that the NASDAQ generated a 535 point trading range last month and as of Friday the index has only gone above last month's high by 62 points, meaning that much more upside can yet be seen. With the all-time high now only 429 points above last week's high, a case can be made that over the next 2 weeks the index could run up to that level. I should also be mentioned that in the year 2000 when the index made the all-time high monthly close at 4696, it only took 2 weeks to make the all-time intra-week high. Simply stated, the stage could be set for the index to run the next 2 weeks, if and when the traders are looking to mimic the past.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows no intra-week resistance until 5132, though it can be said that the 4700 level could be seen as a "general" resistance area. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at 5048 and on a monthly closing basis, resistance is found at 4696.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will now show daily and weekly close support at the previous 14-year high daily and weekly close at 4598/4582 respectively. Further but minor support is found at 4542 that could be seen due to the chart showing a "third" unclosed gap between 4575 and 4594 that should not remain unclosed before much further upside is seen. Important and pivotal support is now found at the 4500 level.

The key this week in the NASDAQ will be the 4700 demilitarized zone as a close above 4730 would leave open air above for an attempt at 5000. By the same token, a break below last week's low at 4626 would suggest that a pause is occurring and that on a weekly closing basis that the previous high weekly close at 4582 would likely be tested.

Probabilities favor the NASDAQ continuing higher but the week is likely to be short-term pivotal.

SPX Friday closing price - 2039

The SPX continued its uptrend, having made a new all-time intra-week high at 2046 as well as another green weekly close. The index closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above 2046 will be seen next week.

The SPX slowed down a bit this past week, having generated the lowest trading range (16 points) since the third week of August and the third lowest trading range in the last 52 weeks. The slowdown suggests the traders are becoming cautious regarding new buying at these levels and may need additional positive fundamental news to accomplish much higher prices.

Fundamentally, it has been said by several analysts that a rally up to 2100 is going to occur and the rubber band theory does suggest a 2103 objective. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that the mid-point between 100-point increments has always been an area in the past where resistance has been found, likely meaning that the 2050 area may generate a correction and perhaps even become a top.

To the upside, the SPX has no resistance above. To the downside, the SPX should now show minor intra-week support at 2030 and closing support around the 2000 level and intra-week support again at 1979. Further but minor support is found between 1966 and 1970. Decent to strong support is found at 1904.

The SPX has been somewhat mimicking the action seen in July-Oct 2011 when the index made a 1-year correction low at 1074 and generated a rally of 218 points in a matter of 4 weeks (all green weekly closes) before generating a retest of the previous low with a drop down to 1158. The index has now rallied 226 points over a period of 4 weeks (all green weekly closes) and has not yet retested the previous low at 1820, suggesting that if the same scenario is to occur, this coming week would be the start of a short-correction to test the previous low.

The only difference in the SPX action seen in 2011 and the action seen now is that the index in 2011 was still showing lots of volatility prior to the retest of the low, having generated 71 point trading range on the 4th green weekly close week. Last week's trading range was only 16 points and the volatility has died down significantly, suggesting that the probabilities of the same scenario occurring now are not very high.

The SPX did close near the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that breaking above last week's high at 2046 or below last week's low at 2030 would be a short-term signal of direction for the next couple of weeks.


The indexes continued to rally but the interest in trading the market has been abating and the rallies have been getting tougher to achieve. The recent spike lows made 5 weeks ago have not been tested successfully and since there really has not been any significant fundamental changer, it is getting more likely that some of pull back is ready to occur.

There are a decent amount of economic reports due out this week (Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts and Permits, PPI, CPI, FOMC minutes and Philadelphia Fed but none of them are likely to be catalytic in any way. By the same token, with the momentum ebbing, the market may only need a small "nudge" to start moving downward.

Nonetheless, the probabilities favor more of the same as seen last week with higher high and lower lows but with no volatility and even a smaller trading range than last week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The charts are unclear as to what is to happen the rest of the year. More clarity could be seen this week but the fact remains that further upside is likely to be labored and buy mentions are somewhat risky due to the now overbought conditions found in the indexes.

The present portfolio is totally weighted to the upside so this week the mention given will be a short in a stock that shows enough chart reasons to consider it being a viable trade. It will even out the portfolio a bit, given the possibility that the indexes may see a bit of a correction if the bulls cannot take the indexes higher.

SALES

AMZN Friday Closing Price - 327.92

AMZN has been on a downtrend for the past 10 months, ever since the January's earnings report came out. During this period of time the stock has generated 3 rallies (not counting the one the stock is seeing now) and each rally has been lower than the previous one. None of the earnings reports since the one in January have been good enough to change the trend around, suggesting that fundamentally the stock remains a sell.

Three weeks ago, AMZN got down to a previous intra-week low of consequence at 284.38 with a drop down to 284.00 and likely because of the impressive rally in the indexes, the bulls were able to stop the selling and generate a double low at that price that in turn has caused the stock to rally aggressively this past week. Nonetheless, the previous rally high at 349.38 has not yet been broken, suggesting this rally might end up simply being the fourth rally high of the year without a break of the downtrend.

It should be mentioned that the double intra-week low seen in the AMZN chart is not supported by the weekly closing charts as on that chart the stock made a new 52-week low the last time around.

AMZN generated a spike high rally last week and a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 332.88 will be seen this week.

To the upside, AMZN will show minor resistance at 340.71 but that level is also strengthened by the fact that the 100-week MA is currently at $340. Further resistance will be found at the third rally high in the downtrend at 349.38. It should also be mentioned that on the daily closing chart, the stock shows quite a bit of resistance between 334.38 and 337.15 that also includes the 200-day MA, currently at 328.75, that has only been broken once during the past 7 months and then only by $17 dollars and only for a period of 9 days, meaning the line is a valid resistance level even if broken for a short period of time.

To the downside, AMZN does not show any support of consequence until the 304.69-305.50 level but even then that support is considered minor. The stronger support is found at the double low on the intra-week chart at 284.38/284.00. By the same token, if the stock fails to break the downtrend, the probabilities of the downtrend continuing and the double low getting broken would be high. If that does occur, the downside objective would be the 200-week MA, currently at $262.

Sales of AMZN between $342 and $344 and using a stop loss at 350.35 having a $262 objective will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AKS generated an inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the traders need help from other sources for direction. By the same token, the bulls still have a "slight edge" inasmuch as the important and pivotal support at 6.00 has not been broken. The stock now shows 2 successful retests on the daily chart of the recent low at 5.99 and the stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting last week's high at 6.86 is more likely to be broken that last week's low at 6.17. A break above 6.83 is likely to thrust the stock up to at least the 7.24/7.32 level if not up to the 200-day MA, currently at 7.55. A break below 6.17 would not necessarily generate much selling as the 6.00 level is still considered support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

ARNA closed above 4.37 on Friday, meaning that the break of that weekly close support seen in August has now been negated. It does suggest that the downtrend is now officially over and that the stock is likely to get into a sideways trend between 5.15/5.50 and 4.05/4.37 for the next couple of weeks before any new decisions on trend are made. For the short-term (next week), the stock will show support at last week's low at 4.22 and resistance at last week's high at 4.90 A break of either level will likely generate a 10-15 point move in that direction. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that any long term decision will be made at this time. With the stock having closed in the middle of the week's trading range but on the lows of the day on Friday, it is likely the traders will first be testing support rather than resistance. Some support should be found around the 4.37-4.40 level that if the bulls are able to hold should cause the stock to test resistance and likely break it, with 5.15 as a likely objective.

ENG had an uneventful inside week with an also uneventful weekly close 3 points below last week's close. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.94 is likely to be seen, suggesting that the bulls will once again attempt to break the 200-week MA, currently at 2.00, this coming week. The bears tried repeatedly this past week to close the gap generated after the earnings report between 1.59 and 1.85 and were successful in getting into the gap with a week's low of 1.78. Nonetheless, the bulls were successful in preventing the gap being closed and the probabilities now favor resistance levels above getting tested this week, and if broken, the uptrend resuming. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 2.00 and then a bit stronger at the double high at 2.15. A break above 2.15 will offer an objective of 2.35, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The line is further strengthened by a couple of intra-week high seen in April and May at 2.35 and at 2.37. Any close above the 200-day MA would be a statement that the stock is now in an uptrend. Support is now found at 1.78 that if broken and the gap closed would be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FB had an uneventful inside week in which nothing was decided. The negative inverted flag formation remains in place but also the fact the stock has not made a new low for the past 12 days and that the 100-day MA, currently at 74.05, has not been broken on a daily closing basis. The stock did close near the highs of the week and the probabilities do favor the stock going above last week's high at 75.48 this coming week. If that occurs, the bulls will likely be able to retest the recent high at 76.80. Nonetheless, until the top of the flag at 76.88 is broken, the bears will still have the edge for the longer term. A break below 72.90 would be a strong negative.

FCEL had a negative week, especially since a sister company in the industry (PLUG) reported less than expected earnings and general disappointment about the industry outlook was felt. The stock closed below the level of weekly close support/resistance at 1.84, negating the previous break to the upside of that resistance seen 2 weeks ago. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below 1.66 is likely to be seen. On a positive note, the recent 9-month low at 1.55 was not broken and if it isn't broken this week and a reversal to the upside occurs, it will be seen as a required/needed retest of that low. Minor resistance is found at 1.89 and stronger at 1.95. If the bulls are able to get above 1.95, much of this past week's weakness will disappear. The big key for the week will be the support at 1.55.

FSLR made a new 13-month intra-week low this past week but the bulls were able to keep the stock within a weekly closing area of support between 48.31 and 48.67 that leaves the door open for recovery. The stock did generate a positive reversal on Friday, having made the new 13-month low at 45.94 and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 48.66. By the same token, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.94 will be seen this week. The positive reversal seen on Friday would suggest that further downside below last week's low should not occur. Resistance will be found at the $50 demilitarized zone. A rally above last week's high at 52.60 would strongly suggest the recent downtrend is over. Probabilities favor the stock trading around the $50 level for the next few weeks, with $47 being support and $53 being resistance.

FUEL received a better than expected earnings report and the stock gapped up and made a new 14-week intra-week and weekly close high. Nonetheless, the stock barely closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning the traders were not totally convinced that the stock is heading higher. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 18.26 is likely to be seen on Monday. The high daily close for the last 3 months and prior to the earnings report is 17.37, meaning that a daily close below that level would negate the breakout. Intra-day support from the 60-minute chart offers support between 17.75 and 18.00. It is likely that level will be tested on Monday and depending on what happens there, the traders will decide what to do the rest of the week. Important daily close resistance is found at 21.14, as a close above that level would suggest the downtrend is over and that further upside to the $25-$28 level would be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls because of the positive earnings report, but this coming week will be pivotal.

GIGM made a new 8-week high but the bulls were unable to close above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.08, meaning that the chart continues to be slightly positive but not to the point that the bulls can feel comfortable that the downtrend is over. The stock did close on the bottom half of the week's trading range, and further downside below last week's low at .98 is likely to be seen. Support is found at .95 and again at .87. The bulls have been successful in establishing a base at the 1.00 level, having closed above that level on 13 of the last 15 days. This action does suggest the stock is trading at least sideways and that the probabilities longer term favor the bulls over the bears. Nonetheless, the bulls must still generate a close above both the the 200-day MA, currently at 1.10, as well as above the 200-week MA before they can claim success in resuming the uptrend. Probabilities for this week suggest the stock will trade between .95 and 1.05.

PACB generated a new 8-month intra-week and weekly closing high last week as well as a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.00 will be seen this week. The now confirmed weekly close above 6.50 is a positive that suggests that the stock will be testing the 3-year double top on the weekly closing chart at 7.18/7.19. If that level is broken, the 2-year uptrend will resume and a rally up to at least the $10 would likely occur. Support is now pivotal and important between 6.18 and 6.30. Intra-day support is found at 6.61 and at 6.50. Probabilities now favor a rally this week up to the 7.39 level. A close next Friday above 7.19 would be a strong positive.

RFMD generated another green weekly close, the 5th in a row, and though the previous week's intra-week high at 13.90 was not broken, the stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 13.63 is likely to be seen, suggesting the 13.90 level will at least be tested. A break above 13.90 leaves nothing but open space above for a rally to the $18-$20 level before any selling of consequence is seen. Support is now pivotal between 12.97 and 13.02 that if broken would likely cause the stock to fall back down to at least the 12.00 level. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) PACB - Purchased at 6.58. Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 6.08. Stock closed on Friday at 6.80.

2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.44 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.69. Stock closed on Friday at 6.54.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.74.

4) RFMD - Averaged long at 13.13 (2 mentions) Stop loss is at 12.68 on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 13.57.

5) GIGM - Averaged long at 1.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.93.

7) FSLR - Purchased at 47.82. Averaged long at 59.404 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.49.

8) FB - Averaged long at 73.725 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 72.65. Stock closed on Friday at 74.88.

9) FUEL - Purchased at 19.31. Stop loss is at 17.27 on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 18.65.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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