Issue #452
November 8, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Interest Rate Scenario Could Affect Indexes!

DOW Friday closing price - 17910

The DOW generated another green weekly close, the 6th is a row, and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 17977 will be seen this week.

The DOW could be mimicking the rally seen at the end of last year where it generated 7 green weekly closes for in a row and got up to 17971 on the 5th of December before generating a fast 2 week drop back down to 17067. Such a scenario would also somewhat mimic what occurred in 2011 when the index generated a second correction after the first strong correction seen in August. With the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in September, that could end up being the catalyst for a fast drop this year.

To the upside, the DOW could still get up to the 18103 before seeing any new selling come in as that is what happened last year.

To the downside, if last week's low at 17665 is broken this week it could be the signal that the same scenario is occurring and that it would start this week. By the same token, if last week's highs are broken early in the week, last year's scenario would likely be postponed for at least 1 more week.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the DOW this week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5147

The NASDAQ is facing what could be a short-term pivotal week, inasmuch as the index got up to the only intra-week resistance left between 5164 and 5175 before the all-time high at 5231 is reached. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5163 is expected to be seen, which in turn would suggest the all-time high could be seen and broken this week.

Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to get above 5164 and the index goes below last week's low at 5061, a fast correction down (as explained above in the DOW comment) could occur. If that occurs, the first objective would be the top of the runaway gap between 4926 and 4999, which also represent the psychological 5000 level that has a high probability of being tested again.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2099

The SPX continued to move higher, having generated another green weekly close (the 6th is a row). Nonetheless, the index did back off to close in the middle of the week's trading range after having gotten near to the last resistance level at 2119 (got up to 2116) before the all-time high at 2134 is reached.

The SPX is likely to be the bell-weather index at this time, given that everything is presently revolving around the interest rate scenario and with the probabilities now favoring the Fed raising interest rates in December is now high. With the index closing in the middle of the week's trading range and there being no catalytic economic or earnings reports due out this week, a rally above 2119 or a drop below last week's low at 2080 will likely determine what the index will do the next few weeks.


The market received strong positive news this week in the form of a much better than expected Jobs report. Nonetheless, the positive news also increased the chances of the Fed raising interest rates in December, meaning that the positive news does have a negative attached to it and it is not yet known what plan of action the traders will adopt based on the changed outlook.

By the same token, a rise in interest rates is likely to have a negative effect, even though it may only be short-term negative. With the indexes still possibly mimicking the 2011 correction scenario, or maybe just mimicking last year's 2-week drop seen in December, the probabilities still favor some downside before the end of the year. Whether that downside will start this week or start within the next few weeks will not be known until this week's action is seen.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions due to my inability to spend much time doing chart evaluations this week. Nonetheless, mentions will be given on the message board if opportunities arise during the week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated a spike rally this past week but having gotten only 1 point above the October 9th high at 3.18 (got up to 3.19) and then backing off the last 3 days of the week, what has now been built is a double high of at that level on the daily chart. Should the stock go below last week's low at 2.32 this coming week, the double high will also be built on the weekly chart, giving it a bit more strength. Minor support is found at 2.34 and then nothing until 2.05, which is a level that if broken would likely renew the selling interest. Resistance is minor at 3.02 and decent at 3.18/3.19 that if broken would suggest a fast rally to the 5.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this coming week, especially with the failure to generate new highs on the spike rally, but overall the building of a bottom continues.

ARNA bears failed to generate any downside this past in spite of the previous week's close in the lower half of the week's trading range. The stock closed in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.25 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed above the psychological resistance level at 2.00, which does give the bulls a little bit to cheer about. Daily close resistance is pivotal at 2.40, as well as the weekly close resistance at 2.34. Minor daily close support is found at 2.00 and decent at the double bottom at 1.81. Chart action seen this week suggests the stock has now built a bottom but is not yet ready to generate a buy signal, not even a small one. By the same token, the company reports earnings on Tuesday evening and that could be a catalyst for movement. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CVX generated a strong rally this past week, having moved up intra-week 7.9% above last week's close. Nonetheless, the stock seems to have hit a brick wall, having gotten up to both the 50-week MA, currently at 98.70, as well as up to the 200-day MA, currently at 96.70, with the 98.64 high and then backing off to close below both of those lines and on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 90.48 is likely to be seen this week. It is important to note that the stock did break out of a bullish flag formation last week that offered a 104.63 upside objective and if the stock does go below last week's low, that bullish flag will be negated and the rally will be seen as a spike high top. As it is, the stock should have closed near the highs of the week if the flag was going to be fulfilled, meaning that the bulls may have lost their edge with the mini sell-off at the end of the week. Daily close support is found at 91.62 that if broken would be a bearish statement. Stock closed near the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action will be to the upside, with the 200-day MA as the objective. Probabilities favor the bulls but the chart seems to suggest that short-term pivotal action will be seen this week.

DXD see DOW chart evaluation in the opposite context.

ENG reported earnings on Friday but it seems that it was neither better or worse than expected as the stock ended up making no move of consequence in either direction nor a spike in volume on earnings day. By the same token, the stock had generated a mini breakout prior to the report, having broken above the 12-week high at 1.10 on Tuesday and none of that breakout was given back, suggesting the earnings report does support the mini breakout. Weekly close resistance is minor to decent but pivotal at 1.31 and support is minor at 1.08 and minor to decent at 1.00. Probabilities strongly favor that a bottom has been built at the .88-.92 level but the probabilities favor the stock now getting into a sideways trading range between 1.00 and 1.30 for the next few months.

FCEL generated a new 18-week intra-week high but the bulls were unable to confirm the mini-breakout as the stock sold off to close very slightly below the same 18-week weekly closing high at .94. By the same token, the stock closed on the highs of the day on Friday and in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the first course of action for the week will be to the upside as the bulls will attempt to reach and hopefully break the 200-day MA, currently at 1.06. It is unlikely that the MA line will be broken the first time around but if reached it will be a positive since that line has not been reached for over a year and has been unbroken for 18 months. Support is minor to perhaps decent at 86 and if the stock gets above last week's high at 1.02 this week, the support will become decent. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FSLR continued the recent rally, having generated another green weekly close, the 5th if the past 6 weeks on Friday. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 59.85 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has now reached the next resistance level of some consequence at the $60 demilitarized zone. By the same token, the resistance here is mostly from previous low daily/weekly closes and if the stock can get above 60.30 there is no intra-week resistance of any consequence until 63.10 is reached. Minor intra-week support is found at 58.61, general support at 57.00, and indicative support at 54.65. Probabilities favor the bulls.

HAL generated a slightly positive green-close week as well as a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further intra-week upside above last week's high at 40.31 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls continued to fail to close above the 12-week established weekly close resistance level at the $40 demilitarized zone, having visited that level 5 times during the last 12 weeks (and repeatedly over the past 5 years) but not closing once above it, suggesting the bulls will need some fundamental help to breach that area. With the earnings report already out, it seems that only a continued rally in the indexes would help. Intra-week resistance is decent at 41.28 that also represents the 50-week MA, currently at 41.70. Further resistance is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 42.15. Decent support is found between 36.83 and 37.77 that if broken would suggest a drop down to the next support level at 34.36 would be seen. A break of that support would suggest the $30 level will be visited. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but overall the bears still have the mid-term edge.

KNDI continued the torrid rally that started at 5.05 just 5 weeks ago and that reached 11.25 this past week. In addition, the stock confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 8.40, having closed above that line for the second week in a row. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above 11.25 is expected to be seen this week. By the same token, in spite of the torrid rally and the break of the MA line, the bulls were unable to negate the break of previous 18-month weekly close at 11.31 that when broken in May caused the drop down to 5.05 to occur. The company reports earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens and the report is likely to be a catalyst for further upside or for the expected correction to test the low at 5.05 that has not occurred yet. Probabilities are even as the short-term direction will likely be dependent on the earnings report.

QRVO reported much better than expected earnings on Friday and the stock gapped up above the 7-week high at 51.62 and went up to close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 55.83 will be seen this week. Resistance is minor at 58.36 and stronger at the $60 demilitarized zone. Further resistance is found at the bottom of the gap between 68.94 and 62.35 that also represents some strong and important previous lows seen at the beginning of the year at the 63.00 level. Very minor intra-week support is found at 53.12 and then stronger at 50.80. Probabilities favor the bulls taking the stock up to at least the $60 demilitarized zone but probably even up to the $63 level before any selling of importance is found.

WMT generated a key reversal this past week, having made a new 5-year low but then closing in the green and above the previous week's high at 58.45. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 59.20 is likely to be seen this week. Minor resistance is found at the $60 demilitarized zone, a tiny bit stronger at 61.50 and then minor to perhaps decent between 62.49 and 62.63. General resistance will be found at 63.00. Minor support is found at 57.98, a bit stronger at 57.16 and pivotal at 56.77. Probabilities favor the bulls and a rally up to at least the 60.00 demilitarized zone but more likely to somewhere between 62.50 and 63.00. made a new 42-month low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 57.16 will be seen this week. The stock shows intra-week support at 57.18 and again at 56.23, which is considered very minor. Nonetheless, on an weekly closing basis, support is minor to decent at 56.70, which was the weekly close resistance for a period of 33-months, between January 2009 and October 2011, and that will be difficult to break at this time due to the strongly oversold condition as well as the 47% drop in price seen over the past 9 months. The stop loss at 56.65 should be mental as there is a decent chance that some additional selling will be seen this week but unlikely that much further downside, below 56.70 will be seen on a weekly closing basis. A hard stop loss can be placed at 55.58 as a break of that minor intra-week support would suggest the $50-$51 level would be seen.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .94.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.18.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 58.21 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.67.

4) AREX - Averaged long at 6.013 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.63.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.08.

6) WMT - Purchased at 57.72. Stop loss at 55.58. Stock closed on Friday at 58.78.

7) QRVO - Purchased at 43.89. Stop loss at 42.14. Stock closed on Friday at 55.55.

9) KNDI - Averaged short at 9.62. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.79

10) HAL - Averaged short at 39.755. Stop loss at 41.38. Stock closed on Friday at 39.35.

11) XOM - Shorted at 84.38 and at 85.02. Stop loss at 87.53. Stock closed on Friday at 84.47.

12) LVS - Covered shorts at 50.61. Shorted at 48.66. Loss on the trade of $195 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) DXD - Purchased at 20.78. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.05.

14) CVX - Shorted 96.77 and at 98.61. Averaged short at 97.69. Stop loss at 98.74. Stock closed on Friday at 94.03.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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