Issue #445
September 20, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Negative Reaction to Fed Decision!

DOW Friday closing price - 16384

The DOW generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high at 16933 but then closing in the red on Friday. The index closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16330 will be seen this week. The reversal will be confirmed as a spike high retest of the 17000 level if the index does go below last week's low without last week's high being taken out.

The volatility in the DOW continues, having generated a 603 point trading range last week, added to the 555, 1299, 1011 and 1110 seen the previous 4 weeks before that, strongly suggesting that the correction is not over. With no economic reports of any consequence due out until Thursday, and few fundamental reasons to rally this coming week as the interest rate scenario is settled for at least another month, if such a trading range is seen again, a drop below the 16000 level becomes a high probability.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW will show very minor resistance between 16500 and 16550 and then minor to perhaps decent at 16664/16669. Decent resistance will be found at last week's high at 16933.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW will show very minor support at 16212 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent support at the 16000 demilitarized zone (15970-16030). Additional and minor to decent support will be found at 15855 and decent to strong at the recent low at 15370, that is further strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently also at 15370, as well as by the 15340 low seen on February 2014.

The DOW is likely to trade technically for the next 2 weeks until the next big economic report week that begins October 5th with the ISM Index and Jobs report due out, as well as the beginning of the next earnings quarter with AA reporting on October 8th. With such a major drop having been seen 4 weeks ago, the traders are likely to test the recent lows (15370) to see if the buying interest at that price remains.

With the Fed having done nothing in this last week's meeting but stating that they are worried about the economic condition of the world and the fact that September is considered one of the worst months of the year, the DOW is likely to have a bear bias this week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4827

The NASDAQ generated another green weekly close on Friday but it was not considered much of a positive as it was only by 5 points, it was near the lows of the week (suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4791), and still "below" the 50-week MA, currently at 4860, meaning that on a closing basis the bulls were unable to negate the break of the line that occurred 5 weeks ago, in spite of the fact that the index traded above the line for 3 of the 5 days and substantially so on Thursday as it was traded as much as 100 points above the line.

The tech sector in the NASDAQ kept the index closing in the green, inasmuch as AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and PCLN all generated green weekly closes as well. Nonetheless, with the exception of AMZN, all of the big stocks in the index closed near the lows of the week (either in the green or in the red, such as AAPL and BIDU), which do suggest they will be going below last week's lows this week, thus causing the index to do the same.

Two additional negatives that need to be mentioned is that Thursday's rally in the NASDAQ up to 4960 and close at 4893, failed to negate the daily close support level at 4909 that when broken caused the index to fall to 4292, as well as failed to close the breakaway gap up between 4992 and 4986 that was targeted when the previous runaway gap between 4877 and 4856 was closed on Wednesday. The index gapped down on Friday between 4880 and 4840 and though on an intra-day basis the bulls were able to get the index back up to 4878, they were unable to close the gap, meaning that a new breakaway/runaway gap formation has been formed. With the index closing near the lows of the day, it is highly unlikely that the gap will be closed on Monday, which in turn suggest that it will be a negative factor until some positive fundamental change occurs, which is not likely to occur this coming week.

To the upside and on intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows very minor resistance at 4836 and minor to perhaps now decent at 4862, which does include the 50-week MA, currently at 4860, that is considered decent weekly close resistance. Above that level, Friday's high at 4960 is now considered decent resistance.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, minor support in the NASDAQ is found at 4746, minor again at 4657 and a bit stronger at 4614. Below that level, there is decent support between 4547 and 4563. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 4547 and at 4500 (which is the most recent low daily close seen the day after the 4292 low was made). Below that level there is no intra-week support until the 4292 level is reached.

The bears in NASDAQ are likely to key this week in closing the rally gap that was generated to the upside between 4712 and 4746 that has no reason to stay unclosed, especially since the Fed announcement that rates would remain the same was not taken positively. In addition, the probabilities are very high that the 2 most important low daily closes seen in the past 11 months, at 4547 and at 4503, will need to be tested successfully before the traders regain confidence in trying the upside again. As such, it is expected that the index will trade down for the next 2 weeks with a close at 4547 as the objective. With the index having closed at 4827 on Friday, it does suggest that the index will see an additional 5.9% drop in price over the next 2 weeks, based on a daily close.

SPX Friday closing price - 1958

The SPX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1948 will be seen this week. In addition, the red weekly closed not only confirmed the break of the 100-week MA, currently at 1970, for a third week in a row but also confirmed a successful retest of the line, having closed the previous week at 1961 and then on Friday below that price.

It will also be said, if the SPX gets below last week's low this week, that the index will have tested successfully the important psychological resistance at 2000, having moved up to 2020 this past week and testing the previous intra-week high from September 2014 at 2019. A successful retest of the 2000 level will likely bring new selling interest until such a time that the fundamental picture changes back to a bullish scenario.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor resistance at 1975, minor to perhaps decent resistance between 1988 and 1993 and decent resistance at 2019/2020.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor support is found at 1937 and a bit stronger between 1903 and 1911. Below that level, there is decent support at the recent low of 1867 and then nothing until decent and longer term pivotal support at 1820.

In spite of the strong intra-week rally seen in the SPX this past week, the bears at the end of the week were able to end up the winners, suggesting that until new and positive fundamental information comes out that the bears will remain in control. Downside target for the next 2 weeks is likely to be the 1820 level, which based on Friday's close is still 7% lower.


The bulls "huffed and puffed" their way up this past week but the end results was that they were unable to "bring the house down" as the FOMC rate decision (in spite of being what they wanted it to be) failed to generate new buying interest. The FOMC rate decision suggested that the World's economy is extremely fragile right now and would not be able to withstand an interest rate hike by the U.S., meaning that until such a time that outlook changes, the correction being seen will remain.

With no U.S. economic reports of a possible catalytic nature due out until the second week of October, the traders will likely trade technically the next 2 weeks unless some economic reports from Asia or Europe come out that are strong enough to suggest the World is recovering (unlikely right now). Even if those numbers do come out positive in the Manufacturing reports due out this week from Asia and Europe, it is not likely they will help the U.S. market much as anticipation/fear of a U.S. rate increase would then likely re-appear.

Probabilities do favor the bears this week and with volatility remaining high and volatility being stronger when weakness (rather than strength) is prevalent, it is possible that the indexes will see some strong selling this coming week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week but the indexes and stocks sensitive to them should head lower. As such, adding short positions to existing shorts, more pointedly IBM, KMX, and WMT, should be considered. Check out updates on those stocks for possible stop loss points and objectives.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.32 will be seen. Much of the negative reversal is fundamentals, due to the $3 drop in price seen in the crude oil market. Intra-week support is found at 2.32, at 1.86 and at 1.65. Resistance is found at 2.78 and stronger at the now double top at 3.03/3.02. Chart suggests the stock will retest the 1.86-2.00 level as the traders look for a successful retest of the all-time low at 1.65.

ARNA generated a mini negative reversal, inasmuch as the stock made a new 4-week high but then closed in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.78 will be seen this week. Intra-week support is found at 2.62 and at the multi-year low at 2.54. Resistance is found at 2.99. Probabilities do favor the bears this week but it was expected that a retest of the recent lows would occur at some point before new buying is seen. The 2.70 level is a likely downside objective but if the bulls are able to keep the stock from making a new low over the next 2 weeks, the stock should rally thereafter.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.61 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock made another new 5-year low weekly close, suggesting that the downtrend continues. The next intra-week support level found on the chart is at 67.54, though it is likely that some buying will be seen as the $70 psychological support level. Nonetheless, should the stock break the 67.54 support, the next support of consequence is not found until the $60 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's high. The reversal will also accomplish a successful retest of the 2-year low at .88 if the stock gets above last week's high at 1.08 this week (likely). The chart shows no resistance above until the 1.28-1.31 level is reached, suggesting that will be the upside objective over the next 2 weeks. Decent support is now found at .96. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FCEL failed to get above the psychological resistance at 1.00 and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .88 will be seen this week. By the same token, it was anticipated that at some point the stock would test the all-time low at .64 as no successful retest of that low has been seen yet on the weekly chart. On a weekly closing basis, decent support is found at .84 and on an intra-week basis support is found at .80/81. Resistance is found at 1.00, at 1.06, and at 1.14. Probabilities favor the bears this week but overall the stock seems to have found a bottom and new buying should appear after the retest of the lows has occurred.

FSLR generated a negative week after having reached the important psychological resistance at $50 the previous week. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 45.08 is likely to be seen. The stock does have "some" sensitivity to the index market and will likely see some selling should the indexes head lower (likely). On a weekly closing basis, support should be found at 44.05, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at. Minor to perhaps decent Intra-week support is found between 44.62 and 44.03. Further and stronger intra-week support is found at 41.56. Probabilities favor the bears for this week but the chart suggests the stock has found the low of the move and that after a week or two of further selling pressure (though likely not strong) that the stock will turn back around to the $50 level at least.

IBM generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then going below the previous week's low as well as closing at the low of the previous week and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 143.98 will be seen this week. Minor support is found at 143.32, at 141.85, and decent at 140.62. By the same token, the stock gapped down on Friday between 147.30 and 146.38 and given that a previous gap between 148.70 and 147.68, considered a runaway gap, had been closed a couple of weeks ago, it does suggest this gap is a new runaway gap since the original breakaway gap between 172.14 and 166.35 has never been closed. Resistance is now minor to decent at 148.97/149.04 and decent as well as pivotal at 149.68. Probabilities favor the bears and the downtrend resuming with a downside objective of $133/$134 to be reached within the next couple of weeks.

KMX generated a successful retest of the pivotal daily close breakdown point at 62.00, having closed on Thursday at 62.06 and then generating a red close on Friday. The successful retest of the breakdown point suggest the stock will resume the recent downtrend, especially since the stock gapped down on Friday between 61.68 and 61.53, making the gap a possible runaway gap when added to the breakaway gap seen in June between 71.72 and 70.88. No previous runaway gap had been seen, meaning that if this gap is confirmed this week that new lows on the move are likely to be seen. Intra-week support is found between 58.28 and 58.55, again at 56.79 and at the recent 9-month low at 55.28. Below that level, there is no support until minor support is found at 54.08. Below that level, there is some previous high support around the $53 level and then nothing until the 200-week MA, currently at 46.70. Resistance is now decent at last week's high at 62.98. Probabilities favor the bears.

PGR made a new all-time intra-week high at 31.70, above the previous high seen 5 weeks ago at 31.57. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to generate any new buying interest and the stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 30.10 will be seen this week. Another negative is that on a daily closing basis, no new high was made, with the stock closing on Thursday at 31.34 and the all-time high daily close being 31.45. In addition, the bulls failed to close the stock on Friday above either of the 2 previous high weekly closes at 31.28 and 31.03, suggesting that the bulls failed in their attempt and are not likely to see some renewed selling interest unless the stock and indexes turn upward this week. Important and likely pivotal weekly close support is found at 29.27 that has a high likelihood of being seen this week. On a daily closing basis, any close below 30.38 this week will stimulate new selling as no intra-week support is found until minor support is reached at 29.12. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

PHM generated a reversal week, having made a new 4-week high and then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.44 will be seen this week. Support is decent at the $20 demilitarized zone (19.70-20.30) and then minor at 19.28. Decent support is found at 18.90 and at 18.61 that if broken would suggest the mention's objective of $17 will be reached. Resistance is now decent at 21.47. Probabilities favor the bears.

PRAA got up to a decent intra-week resistance at 56.09 with a rally up to 55.98. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to generate new buying and the stock closed in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 53.25 will be seen this week. If that occurs (likely), the recent low at 50.03 is likely to be tested with a drop down to at least 52.92. Further but minor intra-week support is found at 52.23 but below that level there is no support until the $50 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bears for at least some kind of retest of the $50 level. A break below the bottom of the $50 demilitarized zone though, would likely take the stock down to the $47 level and fulfill the mention's objective.

WMT generated a new 3+ year weekly close low on Friday and the stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 63.23 will be seen this week. Minor support is found at the recent 3-year intra-week low at 61.50 and then nothing until psychological support is found at the $60 demilitarized zone. Any weekly close next Friday below 62.41 would open the door for not only lower prices but perhaps even a drop down to the $50 level. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 67.01. Probabilities favor the bears.

XOM had an uneventful week, at least based on weekly closes, as the stock has now seen 3 weekly closes in a row at 72.46, and 72.69, and at 72.68. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 71.76 is likely to be seen, suggesting that the recent multi-year low at 66.55 will be retested as that has not yet happened and is likely to occur. Psychological support is likely to be found at the $70 demilitarized zone but on a daily closing basis, there is no support until 68.70 is reached. Weekly close support though, is found at 72.13 that if broken would suggest the stock will head down to the 69.31/69.80 level where decent weekly close support is found. Probabilities favor the bears this week, but it is highly likely the low for the recent downtrend has been found and that after a week or two of some selling interest that the stock will begin to move higher.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .86.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.08.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.33.

4) AREX - Averaged long at 6.013 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.42.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.79.

6) PGR - Averaged short at 30.73 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 30.62.

7) PHM - Shorted at 22.06. Stop loss now at 22.35. Stock closed on Friday at 20.52.

8) PRAA - Shorted at 63.64. Stop loss now at 59.35. Stock closed on Friday at 54.30.

9) KMX - Averaged short at 65.12 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 64.35. Stock closed on Friday at 60.27.

10) XOM - Averaged long at 76.825 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 72.68.

11) IBM - Shorted at 146.59. Averaged short at 146.68. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 147.37.

12) CAT - Shorted at 75.48. Averaged short at 74.915 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 77.35. Stock closed on Friday at 78.86.

13) LVLT - Covered shorts at 46.20. Shorted at 47.10. Profit on the trade of $90 per 100 shares minus commissions.

14) WMT - Shorted at 65.47. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.34.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

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