Issue #434
July 5, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Greek Referendum Vote Likely to Decide Direction!

DOW Friday closing price - 17730

The DOW generated a new sell signal, having made a new 21-week intra-week low, below the low seen in March at 17579, and making a new 14-week weekly closing low on Thursday. The index closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 17576 is expected to be seen.

The bulls in the DOW though, failed to make a strong statement, given that the 21-week weekly closing low is at 17713 (17 points below Thursday's close), which means the traders "left the door open" for the possibility of a positive resolution of the Greek crisis over the weekend and a rally next week. Such a scenario would make the 17700 level not only a "general" support area but also a confirmed one through action on the charts.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor intra-week resistance between 17825 (last week's high) and 17840. Further resistance is found at 17923 and a bit stronger at the 18000 demilitarized zone. Decent resistance is found between 18167 and 18205 and then at 18288 and at the all-time high at 18351. To the downside, there is minor support on a daily closing basis at the 200-day MA, currently at 17690. Further but still minor support is found at 17620 and decent as well as pivotal support is found at 17576/17579. Below that level, there is no support until minor at 17243 and then decent at the 17000 demilitarized zone.

The DOW chart continues to suggest that enough has been done to the upside and that the bears now have the edge and are not likely to lose it unless something fundamentally positive occurs with the Greek crisis over the weekend. Even then, if a positive resolution is not clear and decisive (unlikely to occur), the index is at chart levels that any further downside below the 17575 level would likely trigger technical selling that would also connect with the seasonal correction that is expected to be seen, meaning that the probabilities are now definitely favoring the bears.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5009

The NASDAQ generated a decent sell signal on the daily closing chart, having broken the previous one at 5113 on Tuesday and the confirming the break with 2 additional closes at and below the line. In addition, the index also made a new 6-week intra-week and weekly closing low on Thursday, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 5051.

Nonetheless, the bears were unable to make a clear statement, inasmuch as they needed to close the index below the bottom of the 5000 demilitarized zone (below 4970) in order for it to be considered a true negative. In addition, the index closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that the "door was left open" for a positive resolution of the Greek crisis, which in turn would give the bulls ammunition for another attempt at the all-time highs.

The NASDAQ generated a rare gap on the weekly chart, having seen a low the previous week at 5060 and having seen a high this past week at 5051. The gap will serve as a clue/signal this coming week as closure of the gap will give the bulls ammunition for a new attempt at resuming the uptrend, while a second gap on Monday would be considered a "nail in the coffin" to the uptrend, at least for the short to mid-term.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows minor intra-week resistance at 5038 (Wednesday's high) as well as at 5051 which is where the gap is at. Above that level, minor to decent resistance is found between 5101 and 5119. Further resistance is found at 5132 and stronger at 5164. To the downside, minor support is found at 4985 and at 4974 and a bit stronger at last week's low at 4956. Below that level, support is found between 4888 and 4912 and then nothing of consequence until decent to perhaps strong support is found at 4825.

The NASDAQ continues to be the pivot index as it will likely be the strong index to the upside if the market is to head higher, as well as the strong index to the downside if the market is to head lower. Having closed in the middle of the week's trading range, contrary to what the other indexes did in closing near the lows of the week, suggests that most everything this week will pivot around the positive or negative resolution of the Greek debt crisis.

Closure of the gap in the NASDAQ at 6060 will be a positive while a second weekly gap a strong sign of lower prices to come.

SPX Friday closing price - 2076

The SPX also generated the same kind of sell signals on the daily and weekly closing chart as seen in the DOW, but chart-wise the SPX is likely to be more important to the market this coming week than the DOW, inasmuch as the index got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 2056, but did not break it and did bounce off of it, suggesting a successful retest of that important line occurred.

By the same token, the SPX did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2056 will be seen this week, and that also suggests the short-term future of the index is likely dependent on whether the line (on a closing basis) holds up this week.

To the upside, the SPX shows minor intra-week resistance between 2085 and 2090 and decent between 2113 and 2119. Additional resistance is found at 2129 and stronger at the all-time high at 2135. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 2067 and then decent, on a daily closing basis, at 2056. Further support is found between 2039 and 2045, which if broken would be a strong bearish sign.

The SPX is likely going to be the index the traders watch this week, inasmuch as the 200-day MA is close and is considered a indicative and pivotal support level. Any daily close below 2056 will likely be considered a sign of disappointment with the Greek resolution.


The Greek debt problem continued to be the main talking point this past week, to the point that the market ignored slightly better than expected ISM and Jobs reports and ended up giving sell signals on all indexes as well as a negative close on Thursday. With a clear positive resolution to the problem becoming harder to achieve, the market finds itself on the brink of a short-term precipice that if the fall is triggered would be difficult to end until much lower levels are reached.

The Greek referendum on Sunday is likely to be the catalyst for a rally or a drop, though even a positive resolution might not be enough to prevent the market from dropping as a lot of damage has already been done.

The beginning of the next earnings quarter starts on Wednesday with AA reporting after the close. The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter usually bring volatility but also support for the market, meaning that if the bulls survive this week without a lot of damage done to the chart, they might just generate a rally thereafter.

_______________________________________________________

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

It is now 2:30 EST on Sunday and the exit polls in Greece are suggesting the "no" vote will win the referendum. The official results will not be out for a few hours yet and as such, no decisions can be made yet as to what to expect the markets to do tomorrow. It is expected that a "no" vote will cause the world markets to generate a strong drop.

With this situation having no past precedent, it is impossible to speculate on just how much the market (or which individual stocks) will be affected by it. As such, no mentions will be made in the newsletter as trying to come up with a game plan for "new" positions/mentions today is impossible.

As soon as I see the trading tomorrow, I will try to have a game plan for it.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2015, as of 6/1

Loss of $2547 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

OSK (short) $527
KMX (short) $467

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

BWA (long) $13

Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $1007

Closed out losing trades for May per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

QQQ (short) $163
AMZN (short) $180

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

MMM (long) $8

Total Loss for June, per 100 shares, including commissions $251

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30

XOM (short) $436
SINA (short) $1290
PRAA (short) $156

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

XOM (short) $200
ARNA (long) $216

Total $2298

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30

COF (short) $308
VHC (long) $2

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

NFX (short) $338
COF (short) $441
AREX (long) $64
FSLR (long) $1092
FCEL (long) $100
TOL (short) $404
ENG (long $45

Total $2794

Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $260

Status of account/portfolio for 2015, as of 6/30

Loss of $2287 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

AREX bulls were unable to build on the green weekly close the previous week as the stock broke most of the near-by supports to close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.06 will be seen this week. The chart action has now turned decisively bearish, with the stock having dropped 33% over the past 12 weeks without any buying interest of consequence being shown. Nonetheless, since the stock started trading back in November 2007 (395 weeks), there have only been 5 weekly closes (1.2%) below 6.09, meaning that on a weekly closing basis, the bears are not likely to be successful for very long even if the stock continues lower. On an intra-week basis, the previous 2 lows over the past 8 years have been at 3.20 (March 2009) and 4.28 (December 2014), meaning the stock could head down intra-week to those levels if it continues below 6.00.

ARNA was able to slightly extend the recent rally (at least on a weekly closing basis), having generated another green weekly close, the third in the last 5 weeks. Nonetheless, the stock found decent selling at the 4.70-4.75 level (got up to 4.72) and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range "and" still below the weekly close resistance at 4.53, suggesting the recent mini-breakout has not yet given the bulls the needed edge to take the stock higher and that the stock will go below last week's low at 4.35 this coming week. The 200-day MA, currently at 4.33, is likely to be seen again this week and an intra-week drop below 4.27 and/or a close below the most recent low daily close at 4.30 would "turn the tables around on the bulls". Probabilities still favor the bulls but less so than last week.

COF generated a red weekly close on Thursday, making the previous week's close at 89.02 into a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 89.92, seen in March 2006. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range and like the indexes, the traders are waiting to see what happens in Greece before deciding what to do next. Minor support is found at the low seen last week at 87.66 and then nothing until the $85 level is reached where daily and weekly closing support from previous highs of consequence are found. Minor intra-week resistance is found at last week's high at 89.01 and strong at the $90 demilitarized zone. Chart continues to favor the bulls but it is evident that this coming week is pivotal and likely to be decided by what the market does in general.

ENG generated another red weekly close but on the intra-week chart it does seem that some buying interest is being seen at the 1.30 level. The stock got down to that price twice this past week and if the stock is able to get above Thursday's high at 1.42 on Monday, a double bottom will have been built. In spite of the red weekly close, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and it gives the bulls a slight advantage this coming week. Minor daily close resistance is found at 1.45 and then a bit stronger and on both the daily and weekly closing charts at 1.50. On an intra-week basis, a break above 1.65 would suggest the downtrend is over.

FCEL bulls were unable to build on the previous week's spike low rally and close near the highs of the week as the stock got back down close to the 2-year low at .86 with a drop down to .88 cents. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the bears were unable to break the 2-year weekly close support at .90, having closed on Thursday at .91 in spite of trading below that level most of the day. The bears are presently in control of the stock but the .84/.86 level does provide some support that if not broken could generate some new buying interest. A rally above Thursday's high at .96 on Monday would relieve some of the selling interest as Thursday's low at .88 would be seen as a successful retest of the .86 low, something that does need to happen to give the bulls a chance to turn the stock around. Resistance is now found at 1.06 that if broken would suggest a rally up to at least the 1.12 level if not the 1.18 level. Probabilities continue to favor the stock trading between .84 and 1.18 for the foreseeable future.

FSLR generated another strong drop in price as well as a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now very close to the 200-week MA, currently at 44.90, and if the bulls can turn the stock around and close in the green next Friday, Thursday's weekly close at 45.17 will become a successful retest of the important long-term MA line, which does keep the stock in a long-term uptrend in spite of the recent weakness. Minor to perhaps decent but definitely pivotal intra-week support is found at 44.62 that if broken would be another negative, and perhaps of consequence. Nonetheless, any drop down to the 44.70-45.00 should be seen as an opportunity to purchase using a stop loss at 44.52. Minor intra-week resistance is now found at 48.62 as well as at the gap area between 49.17 and 49.65 but the probabilities strongly favor the stock testing that gap sometime in the next 2 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls this week in spite of the weak close on Thursday. I continue to believe the stock will get into a trading range for several months between $47 and $53 once this drop is over.

NFX generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart on Thursday, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 35.54 seen the second week of May. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 34.74 is expected to be seen. Intra-week support of some consequence is found at 33.96 but with the sell signal being given, the probabilities now favor the stock getting down to test the 200-week MA, currently at 31.75. Likely pivotal intra-week resistance is now found at last week's high at 36.42. Probabilities favor the bears.

PRAA generated a red weekly close on Thursday, and more importantly below the previous all-time high weekly close at 63.25, suggesting that an intra-week top has been built at the recent high of 64.23 and that a failure signal was given. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 62.00 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, like with other stocks and the indexes, much will depend on what happens with the Greek debt situation. Another red weekly close next Friday would suggest the stock will drop down to at least the $60 and also keep the mention objective of $50 alive. Minor intra-week resistance is found at Thursday's high of 63.90, a bit stronger at the recent multi-year high at 64.23 and strong at the all-time high at 65.00. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

SINA generated another red weekly close as well as closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 51.55 will be seen this week. More importantly, the bulls failed to hold up a minor weekly close support at 54.48, which in turn suggests that at least the weekly close breakout area at 50.70 will be visited. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, there is no previous "low weekly close" support until 48.48 is reached. Minor but evident intra-week support is found at 51.26 that if it holds could turn the stock around as the downside objective of the mention was the 50.70-51.26 level. Likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 54.90. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

TOL generated yet another green weekly close (5th in a row) and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.95 will be seen. Nonetheless, the 38.95/38.96 level is considered minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance and is not likely to get broken unless the index market heads higher. Short-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 37.55 (last week's low) which is broken would likely trigger renewed selling interest. Nonetheless, further intra-week support is found at 36.62 that would need to be broken to take the stock down into the $35 level. Nonetheless, the stock has been acting well and consideration should be given to covering the shorts on a dip.

VHC "spun its wheels" this past week, having generated an inside week as well as a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that nothing was decided this past week. Nonetheless, it can be said that the bulls won the week as it was expected the bears would be successful in taking the stock lower and they failed. The $4 level is once again proving to be a support level that will not be easy to break. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at Wednesday's high at 4.45 that if broken would suggest the stock will rally up to the $5 level where resistance is once again likely to be found. Any green weekly close prior to a close below 4.09 would now be considered a positive. Probabilities still favor the bears but the "tide might be turning".

XOM made a new 3-year intra-week low as well as breaking the 3-year weekly close support at 83.58 and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 82.11 will be seen this week. There is no support below until the $80 demilitarized level is reached and even then the support there is considered minor to perhaps decent at best. Short-term pivotal intra-week resistance is now found at 84.90. Probabilities favor the bears this week and a drop down to the $80 level.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .91.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.37.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.17.

4) AREX - Averaged long at 6.28 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.09.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.44.

6) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop is now at 39.02. Stock closed on Friday at 38.44.

7) SINA - Averaged short at 60.57 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 55.35. Stock closed on Friday at 52.57.

8) NFX - Averaged short at 38.94 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 36.52. Stock closed on Friday at 35.04.

9) COF - Averaged short at 84.66 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 90.35. Stock closed on Friday at 88.32.

10) XOM - Averaged short at 85.933 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 85.35. Stock closed on Friday at 83.14.

11) PRAA - Shorted at 63.87. Stop loss is at 65.35. Stock closed on Friday at 62.70.

11) VHC - Purchased at 4.17. Stop loss is at 3.65. Stock closed on Friday at 4.21.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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