Issue #425
April 26, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Back on Driver's Seat!

DOW Friday closing price - 18080

The DOW made a new 7-week closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18133 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index has been underperforming the other 2 indexes (likely because earnings have not been as strong as seen in the Tech or Financial sector) and still finds itself below its all-time high weekly close at 18140, whereas the other 2 indexes made new all-time high weekly closes this past week.

The DOW did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18133 is likely to be seen this coming week.

The DOW has not followed through to the downside on the monthly chart, having generated a negative reversal month last month and closing near the 17579 lows but seeing only a 17585 low this month and now trading near the highs of the month. With the close of the month being on Thursday, the probabilities now favor going above last month's highs at 18288 or having a rare inside month but with a close near the highs of the month. The inability of the bears to "get it done" at a time that the chart favored them is a bullish statement that does suggest the uptrend remains "intact".

To the upside, the DOW shows minor intra-week resistance at 18169, at 18203 and strong at the all-time high of 18288. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 17887 and decent as well as likely pivotal at 17748. Further support is found between 17579 and 17620.

The DOW is likely to be the first index this week to give a signal, inasmuch as AAPL reports earnings on Monday afternoon. AAPL will be the 15th of the 30 DOW companies to report earnings this quarter but likely the most important as it has been a market mover this past year. It is also important to note that the rest of the DOW companies to report are either in the Health Care or Oil industry and none of those are likely to be catalytic to the overall market.

Based mostly on the action in the other indexes, the probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, the DOW bulls have not yet broken any of the 2 previous successful retests (18207 and 18169) of the all-time high at 18288 and if it does not happen by Tuesday after the AAPL report Monday afternoon, the probabilities will shift back to the bears.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5092

The NASDAQ made a new all-time weekly closing high, having closed above the previous one from March 2000 at 5048. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5100 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the index has not yet broken the previous all-time intra-week high at 5132 and though that level is likely to be seen this week, it will likely be difficult to break without additional fundamental help.

The NASDAQ was the leader last week, having rallied off of much better than expected earnings reports on AMZN and GOOG, which rallied 8% and 16% after the reports came out. Nonetheless, most of the big" earnings reports for the index (AMZN, GOOG, and NFLX) have already come out and the stocks now find themselves at price levels that will be difficult to extend. As such, the bulls may have trouble generating much further upside.

From a purely chart point of view, the NASDAQ is at a pivot point, inasmuch as the other indexes achieved their new all-time highs 2 years ago and continued onward without a pause, suggesting that the NASDAQ bulls need to do the same or be called the "only failure". As such, a convincing intra-week break above the 5132 level, in conjunction with another weekly close above 5048 next Friday, is the planned chart strategy for the bulls this week.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows only intra-week resistance at 5132. Above that level there is no previous resistance. To the downside, last week's low at 4952 is now pivotal support. Below that level, further short-term pivotal support is found at 4912. A break below 4912 would suggest the recent lows at 4825 and 4842 would be visited.

During the past 16 months, the NASDAQ had been on a mission to reach the all-time high weekly close at 5048. In those 16 months, the index had generated a total of 6 negative weekly close reversals that were all negated within a week or two thereafter. Nonetheless, now that the goal has been accomplished, it does put the chart into a different light, inasmuch as any chart negatives that are seen from now on are likely to carry additional weight since the bulls no longer have a magnet to push them onward.

The NASDAQ will no longer have any catalysts for higher prices, meaning that the action this week is not only likely to be indicative but also likely to be truly representative of what the traders think will happen the "rest of the year". Probabilities favor the bulls.

SPX Friday closing price - 2117

The SPX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday but not in a totally convincing way since the intra-week high was only by 1 point, the weekly closing high was only by 9 points and no new all-time daily closing high was made, having the index close on Friday at the previous daily closing high of 2117, seen on March 2nd.

The SPX did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2120 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the index was mostly a follower this past week, inasmuch as the NASDAQ pulled all of the indexes higher based on its better than expected earnings reports, and now the index has to do it on its own. With no earnings reports of consequence this week (other than DOW's AAPL on Monday) the action of the SPX is likely to be reflective of the outlook for the index rather than for the entire market.

To the upside, the SPX shows no intra-week resistance other than the highs seen this year at 2119/2120. To the downside, last week's low at 2084 is now considered pivotal support. Further and also pivotal short-term support is found at 2072. Below those levels, further support is found between 2039 and 2045.

The SPX traded in a very small 8-point trading range between 2112 and 2120 on Friday and no new highs were accomplished as the index traded up to Thursday's high at 2120 but not above it. That small trading range will be what the traders key on Monday as a break above it will likely bring on new chart buying, but a break below it will keep the bulls at bay until the important earnings and economic reports come out for Tuesday's open. Probabilities favor an uneventful day on Monday.

The bulls now have a pivotal week ahead of them as last week's action has committed them to resuming the uptrend. Any failure here would be strongly disappointing, especially given the fact that the summer months are usually difficult for price advancement.


The bulls got help this past week from much better than expected earnings reports on AMZN and GOOG, added to the already strong earnings report on NFLX the week before. The Tech sector continues to push the market higher as it is "on fire". Nonetheless, the bulk of the important earnings reports is past and is it unlikely that there are any other earnings reports that could be as catalytic as these earnings reports were, meaning the bulls need to find new reasons to rally the market.

Economic reports will take over this week, with GDP coming out on Wednesday and the ISM Index on Friday. Both of these reports are expected to be worse than last month's and if that is confirmed, the market may have trouble generating additional buying interest, especially when earnings reports are no longer likely to be helpful.

It is also important to note that seasonal tendencies such as the "sell in May and go away adage" are now in view (May 1st is next Friday). Summer is always a tough time for sales in just about all industries and that is a fundamental reality that is not likely to be ignored easily. With all of these factors coming to a head this week, it does seem the action this week is pivotal. As it is, the positives achieved last week will need to be confirmed this week and that is not going to be easy to do fundamentally.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Last week was a pivotal week and after the week ended it seems the bulls came out the winners. Confirmation of the win still has to be seen this week and being a week where a few important economic reports are due out, there are still questions that need to be answered. Nonetheless, probabilities now favor the bulls and as such any consideration to starting new positions should only be given at this time to purchases.

By the same token, further upside is not going to be easy, especially going into the summer months that by nature are the slowest periods of the year. Shorter term trades will now likely be the main course as trends in either direction are not likely to last very long.

I did find 1 stock that shows a chart that fits well with the parameters mentioned above regarding a short term trade, as well as being a purchase.

PURCHASES

CBRL Friday Closing Price - 142.08

CBRL is in the food business (Cracker Barrel) and it is a stock that has been on a on an uptrend since 2008 when it got down to the 10.67 level. For the past 9 months though, the company has been one of the restaurant chains "in vogue" in the news and the media attention has generated increased trading ranges as well as a strong rally from 96.01 to 159.94, a high that was seen just 6 weeks ago.

CBRL seems to have been in a correction phase during the past 6 weeks, having dropped from 159.94 to last Wednesday's low at 136.33. The stock had only seen 1 previous correction to the rally from 96.01, having dropped from 142.49 to 121.89 in the first 5 weeks of the year. As such, this second drop that also has lasted about the same period of time must be considered just a correction to the uptrend.

CBRL generated a positive reversal week last week, having made a new 7-week low but then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 124.84 will be seen this week. The reversal, in conjunction with the strong showing of the market this past week, does suggest the stock is ready to resume the uptrend or at the very least retest the all-time high at 159.94, which has not yet shown a previous retest of that level.

To the upside, CBRL shows minor daily close resistance at 147.51, which is the previous low daily close that got broken 2 weeks ago and from which a short-term sell signal was given. Further but slightly stronger resistance is found between 152.87 and 153.61 and then nothing until the all-time high at 159.94 is reached. To the downside, the stock shows support at last week's low of 136.33, which is also the level from which a gap occurred after the last earnings report, between 135.81 and 137.60. Closure of the gap would be considered a negative, especially considering what is happening in the index market.

CBRL was one of the stocks that Cramer gave as a buy recommendation a few weeks ago and now that the stock has had a corrective phase but is still firmly entrenched in an uptrend, it offers an attractive purchase opportunity to consider.

CBRL chart shows that the $140 demilitarized zone might be seen this week but that the level is now likely to offer strong support. As such, drops down to that level should be considered as a buying opportunity that will offer the required 3 or 4 to 1 risk/reward ratio.

Purchases of CBRL between 139.70 and 140.30 and using a stop loss at 136.23 and having an objective of at least 152.87 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if not for the fact that the stock does not trade with high volume (averages around 350k shares per day).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated a red weekly close, making the previous week's intra-week high at 9.57 into a successful retest of the 2-year resistance from 2008/2010 at $10. In addition, the possibilities that the stock has found a temporary top to the recent rally have now increased, suggesting the stock could head down to the 6.50 level before the traders try again to reach the $10 level. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below 7.92 is expected to be seen. Resistance is now minor to perhaps decent at 8.65/8.70. Minor short-term support is found at 7.61 and then nothing until 6.85. Probabilities favor the stock getting down to 7.70 this week and perhaps rallying back up to the 8.65 level. Nonetheless, mid-term probabilities favor the stock trading between 6.50 and 8.50 for the next few weeks.

ARNA generated a red weekly close, making the previous weeks close at 4.64 into a successful retest of the 50-week MA, currently at 4.65. By the same token, the stock did get down to the 200-day MA, currently at 4.37, with Friday's drop down to 4.35. The stock did bounce up from that line to close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that this coming week is likely to be "short-term" decisive with a break above last week's high at 4.67 or a break below last week's low at 4.35 determining the direction for the next couple of weeks. The overall chart though, suggests the stock continues to be in a wider trading range between the $4 and $5 level with the only question presently being asked is the immediate short-term direction.

AXP continued to "spin its wheels" around the $78 level (based on a weekly close) as the traders await some clear sign of trend direction from the index market. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 78.65 is likely to be seen this week. A break above last week's high though, is likely to generate closure of the gap between 78.65 and 79.25 and likely bring about enough buying to take the stock back up to the $80 level and at the very least take some selling pressure off for the short-term. With the gap based on news, closure of the gap could be seen as enough of a positive to consider covering the short positions. Minor support is found at 77.18 and pivotal support is found at 76.53. A break below 76.53 would be considered a strong negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but this coming week seems to be pivotal and likely dependent on what the index market does.

BWA continued to "spin its wheels" this past week without the chart giving any clue as to what the traders are likely to do. By the same token, the overall chart remains tilted toward the upside as the bullish flag formation on the weekly chart remains in place. Any daily close above 62.08 would be considered a breakout, while any daily close below 59.04 would be seen in a bearish light. Probabilities still favor the bulls.

COF reported earnings on Thursday afternoon and the traders reacted to the news with a slight bearish tone. The stock generated a red close week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 79.36 will be seen this week. Overall though, the stock remains in what looks like a large 1-year consolidation phase between $75 and $85 with a very slight short-term downtrend in place. Minor to perhaps decent short-term support is found at 77.70 and the same kind of resistance is now found at 83.21. The long term chart suggests that the stock will ultimately head lower but it is evident that a rally above the recent high at 83.21 will change that outlook. As such, stop losses should now be hard and placed at 83.31. The monthly chart still suggests the $70 level is the downside objective if the bulls are unable to break to the upside out of this consolidation phase.

ENG generated a green weekly close after it was announced that the company had approved the re-purchase of $2 million dollars of shares. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.74 is expected to be seen. The 200-week MA is currently at 1.74 and a close above that level next Friday would be considered a positive. By the same token, that line has been broken twice to the upside over the past 6 months without much consequence, meaning that it is not a line that is presently pivotal. Weekly close resistance though, is found at 1.80 and a break of that level would be more indicative as a short-term buy signal would be given. Daily close support is now found at 1.60 that should not be broken to the downside if the bulls did get a "valid advantage" with the re-purchase plan. Intra-day support of consequence is now found at 1.50. The 2.00 level, on a weekly closing basis, remains an important longer term pivotal point. Probabilities favor the bulls for the short term and for a potential rally back up to the 2.00 level over the next few weeks.

FCEL finds itself in "no man's land" with the chart giving no clue as to direction at this time. The stock seems to be mired within a 15 point trading range between 1.20 and 1.35 that does not show any intention of being broken anytime soon. A close above 1.41 would be a breakout, a close below 1.19 a breakdown.

FSLR has now generated a green weekly close on 10 of the last 14 weeks with the last 4 all in a row. Nonetheless, the stock generated a negative reversal on the daily chart on Friday, having made a new 6-month intra-week high and then going below Thursday's low and closing near the lows of the day, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 63.16 will be seen this week. The action, coming off a 65.50 intra-week high, does suggest the selling interest is picking up as the stock reaches the decent intra-week resistance level at 65.99 (64.19 on a weekly closing basis). Minor short-term support is found at 61.21 and a lot stronger at the $60 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $60 and $66 for the next few months and as such, trading short-term within those parameters should be considered.

GS continued its uptrend on the weekly closing chart, having generated on Friday the 5th green weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, the stock did generate an inside week as well as a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 196.57 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the chart also suggests that the bears are not likely to have much success in getting the stock below the previous multi-year high weekly close at 195.45 and will probably have problems getting below 195.65 on an intra-week basis, though the probabilities of getting down to that price this week are high. Strong consideration should be given to covering the shorts below 196.00. On a longer term basis, probabilities favor the bulls.

KMX continued to show a lack of follow-through buying interest after the better than expected earnings report, having generated the 3rd red weekly close after the high set at 75.40 right after the report. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 69.81 is likely to be seen. By the same token, the stock is likely to get close this week to the previous all-time intra-week high at 68.71 (68.13 on a weekly closing basis) and not having shown any retest of the 75.40 high, the probabilities do favor some bounce after the previous high is reached. As such, strong consideration should be given to covering the short positions on drops below $69 this week.

ORCL generated an uneventful inside week but did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.75 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears have been unable to generate the kind of selling that a major long term (15 years) double top, as is presently seen in the stock at the 46.47/46.70 level, would have normally brought, suggesting that further downside is limited at this time. Intra-week support is found at 42.21 and at 41.58 that if broken would offer an immediate drop down to the $40 level. To the upside, a break above the recent high at 44.19 would suggest the double top will be tested and perhaps broken. As such, a hard stop should now be placed at 44.35 but consideration should be given to taking the small profits made if the bears fail to break below the 41.58/42.21 level this week. Probabilities are now slightly favoring the bulls.

OSK followed through to the downside this week after the previous weeks test of the resistance level at $50. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 46.90 will likely occur this week. Nonetheless, the stock shows decent support between 44.33 and 46.70 that is not likely to be broken unless the indexes fail. The monthly chart still shows the possibility of the stock getting down to the $40 level but for that to happen the stock would need to close on Thursday below 44.15 and that doesn't seem like a high probability. As such, the chart is not clear and with the indexes not likely to fail in a big way, the best course of action is likely to cover the shorts this week between 46.00 and 46.90 and put the money to work elsewhere.

PCLN closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1235.00 is expected to be seen. The bulls accomplished enough this week to suggest the stock will continue higher with $1245-$1250 as the immediate objective. The stock did gap up on Friday between 1222.95 and 1227.61 and it is unlikely that gap will remain unclosed. Nonetheless, the probabilities favor the bulls going higher before the gap is addressed. Support is now decent at the 1200.00 level which is the put option strike price, meaning that liquidating the put option at the best available price is now a high priority.

RHT generated a new all-time highs weekly close, closing above the previous one from 5 weeks ago at 76.52. The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 77.08 will be seen this week. The all-time intra-week high at 77.82 is still unbroken and will act as minor resistance this week but the probabilities do favor the bulls making another new all-time high this coming week. On an intra-day basis, support is likely to be found at the 76.00 level. Further support will be found at 74.33. The short mention given this past week now looks like a loser and as such, consideration should be given to covering the shorts at the best possible price on Monday, unless of course the indexes head lower and the stock breaks below the support at 74.33. A break above 77.82 would be a strong reason to cover the shorts.

TOL generated a strong down week after Housing reports were disappointing. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.03 is likely to be seen. The stock did give a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below 36.92. Nonetheless, the 12-point lower close was not convincing enough to say the stock is likely to head much lower, meaning that taking profits on the short positions should be considered this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 34.80 and it is unlikely that line will be broken at this time unless the stock market heads lower. Resistance is now decent between 37.50 and 37.61, suggesting the stock could end up having a 35.00-37.50 trading range this week. By the same token, the stock is having a negative reversal month, having made a new 10-year high and having gone below last month's low at 36.62. If the stock closes below 36.62 on Thursday, the probabilities will strongly suggest the stock will head down to the $31 to $33 level. Nonetheless, the probabilities are not high that a close below 36.62 will be seen on Thursday. As such, consideration should be given to covering the shorts between 35.00 and 36.00.


1) AXP - Averaged short at 83.65 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 81.27. Stock closed on Friday at 77.99.

2) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.30.

3) KMX - Averaged short at 69.366 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.97.

4) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.66.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 63.43.

6) VHC - Liquidated positions at 6.82. Averaged long at 4.86. Profit on the trade of $392 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

7) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.99. Stock closed on Friday at 7.98.

8) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.49.

9) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. Stop loss now at 44.35. Stock closed on Friday at 43.09.

10) OSK - Averaged short at 48.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 50.81. Stock closed on Friday at 47.92.

11) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 39.11. Stock closed on Friday at 36.80.

12) COF - Shorted at 79.32. Stop loss now at 43.31. Stock closed on Friday at 80.44.

13) GS - Averaged short at 189.625 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 197.99.

14) BWA - Purchased at 60.38. Stop loss is at 58.14. Stock closed on Friday at 60.79.

15) RHT - Shorted at 75.00. Stop loss now at 77.92. Stock closed on Friday at 76.83.

16) PCLN - Purchased July 1200 put option at 59.00. Option closed on Friday at 40.00.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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