Issue #424
April 19, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Good Earnings Fail to Drive Market Higher! Indexes Look to Head Lower.

DOW Friday closing price - 17826

The DOW generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17748 will be seen the week. Nonetheless, the negative reversal accomplished a lot more for the bears than just being an adverse week, inasmuch as the week's high was a second successful retest of the all-time high at 18288 and the red weekly close on Friday also generated a successful retest of the double top on the weekly closing chart at 18170/18140, meaning that the chart now seems to be totally fulfilled for a correction or downtrend to begin.

The DOW has now spent 5 months in a topping out pattern in which the index now finds itself having closed on Friday 227 points lower than last year's all-time high weekly close at 18053 seen on December 26th. In addition, over the past 35 trading days the bulls have attempted to rally the index on 2 occasions (March and April) but fell short by 91 and 36 points of reaching the previous high, each rally suggesting that the "buy-all-dips-to-see-new-highs" scenario seen over the past 3 years is no longer proving to be successful.

The DOW was the index the traders followed last week, with earnings reports on JPM, AXP, GE, JNJ, INTC and GS having come out. The earnings reports that came out were mixed with JPM, INTC, and GS reporting better than expected earnings but it did not help the bulls stop the strong drop on Friday. That scenario will continue this week as IBM, DD, TRV, MSFT, MCD, MMM, CAT, and PG reporting this week. Nonetheless, it does not seem that the earnings reports are going to help the bulls, inasmuch as NFLX reported blow out earnings on Thursday and rallied close to 30% in value and it did not help the bulls rally the market.

To the upside, the DOW shows minor intra-week resistance at 17991 and at 18103 and stronger at 18169, at 18203 and strong at the all-time high of 18288. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 17685 and decent to perhaps strong between 17579 and 17620 and the nothing on an intra-week basis until 17262.

The DOW is likely to be the first index this week to give a signal as to what the traders are going to do, not only because of the index's earnings reports will be the first out this week but also because it is the index closest to a support level that is pivotal. The recent low at 17579 represents a support level that if broken would bring about automatic additional chart selling. Having generated a 354 point trading range on Friday and having closed at 17826, the support level is certainly reachable on Monday. A break of 17579 will likely bring about a drop down to at least the 200-day MA, currently at 17400, but possibly as low as 17262, which is the next intra-week support level below 17579. It should also be mentioned, that the index is now showing a Head & Shoulders formation that offers at least a 17000 objective if the neckline, currently at 17700 is broken.

The probabilities now favor the bears in the DOW as the bulls need too many fundamental positives to turn the chart negatives now in place around.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4931

The NASDAQ generated a red weekly close on Friday, which made the previous week's close at 4995 into a successful retest of the 15-year high weekly close at 4926. In addition, the index got up to 4924 this past week and then reversed, making it also a successful retest and negative reversal on the intra-week chart as well.

More importantly, the NASDAQ fell 2.3% in value in spite of the 28.9% rally seen in NFLX (one of its main stocks), suggesting that if the stock had not rallied, the drop would have been substantially more. The index did close near the lows of the week and further downside below 4912 is expected to be seen.

The NASDAQ was the only index that had not previous seen a successful retest of the 15-year high weekly close at 5026 and without a clear negative fundamental change, such a retest was necessary to be seen in order for a correction of consequence or a top to the rally to be occur. In addition, it can now also be said that the all-time high weekly close at 5048, seen in the year 2000, has been tested successfully on 2 occasions, with the 5026 close seen in March and the 4995 close seen the previous week. Such a scenario does put the bulls in a difficult position of needing positive fundamental changes that are difficult to achieve at this time.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows minor intra-week resistance at 4974 (top of the gap from Friday), minor again at 5008, minor to perhaps decent at 5024 and strong at 5042. Major weekly close resistance is found at 5048. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 4852 and then stronger between 4825 and 4842. Below that level there is minor support between 4800 and 4810 and then nothing until the 200-day MA, currently at 4652, is reached.

The NASDAQ was unable to rally this past week in spite of the extraordinary 28.9% rally seen on Friday in NFLX. With AAPL no longer being in the index, AMZN now showing a double top after last week's failed attempt to rally, PCLN having tested its previous high successfully, and GOOG close to a support level that if broken would suggest a downtrend will start, the fundamental and chart options for the index to go higher have now dropped dramatically.

In addition, the NASDAQ is now showing a clear Head & Shoulders formation with the left shoulder at 5008, the head at 5042 and the right shoulder at 5024. A break of the neckline at 4824 would offer a downside objective of 4610.

By the same token, the NASDAQ bears still have some work to do, inasmuch as the previous 15-year high weekly close at 4806 still needs to be broken on a weekly closing basis, in order for an ominous failure to follow through signal to be given that would in turn make a drop down to the 4600 level possible.

Nonetheless, the bears in the NASDAQ now have the edge and the burden of proof is now squarely on the shoulders of the bulls. Probabilities now favor the index dropping down this week to the 4800 level.

SPX Friday closing price - 2081

As with the DOW, the SPX now also shows 2 successful retests (2114 and this past week's 2111) of the all-time high at 2119, as well as a negative reversal week and a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2072 will be seen this week and that a top to this rally is now fully formed.

The SPX was unable to hold a rally this past week even though earnings reports on financial companies (GS, JPM, WFC) were all better than expected. That scenario does not speak positively about the short-term future prospects for the index as fundamentally it seems that there is little that can happen that would bring in enough buying to overcome the negative built into the chart the last 2 months.

To the upside, the SPX shows intra-week resistance at 2111, at 2114 and strong at the all-time high at 2119. To the downside, minor support is found between 2067 and 2073 and then decent between 2039 and 2048. Below those levels, further support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 2020, and then nothing of consequence until the 1972-1980 level is reached.

The SPX bulls tried everything in their power to generate resumption of the uptrend, having gone up to 2107 on Monday and up to 2111 on both Wednesday and Thursday. Nonetheless, the previously successful retest of the 2119 all-time high at 2114 was not broken in spite of the bulls only needing to generate an additional 3+ points of rally this past week. The failure to accomplish that goal is likely to weigh heavily on the minds of the traders, knowing that when everything was on their side they could not accomplish that small goal.

It is therefore likely the bulls in the SPX will be on the defensive this week, trying to defend the recent lows at 2039, at 2045, and at 2048. Should those support levels break, the 2000 level will become a magnet for the traders and highly likely to be reached.

Probabilities favor the bears this week.


The bulls failed this past week to regenerate the uptrend, having been unable to get above the previous intra-week highs in any of the indexes. The failure was in spite of earnings and economic reports that were generally slightly better than expected, suggesting that the mindset of the traders may now be on the downside.

This coming week is mostly devoid of economic reports with only Durable Goods on Friday as the only report that has any catalytic power. The traders then are likely to depend on earnings reports, which are high in number (IBM, DD, TRV, MSFT, MCD, MMM, CAT, PG, GOOG and AMZN) but having seen a strong down day on Friday in spite of NFLX rallying 28.9% after its earnings report, the traders are not likely to be optimistic that any of the reports this week will help them generate a rally.

The indexes have now built a top formation that is fulfilled totally and the bulls need something fundamentally positive to turn the outlook around. It is unlikely that such an item exists at this time. As such, probabilities favor another strong down week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I do believe the market is now ready to head lower and sales positions should be the only ones considered. Nonetheless, being already short 7 stocks it is difficult to add many more short positions to the portfolio.

Nonetheless, I am giving 2 additional short mentions in this newsletter, with one of them being a put option purchase due to the high value of the stock.

As the week develops, I may also offer on the message board, additional mentions or put on additional positions to the already held stocks.

SALES

PCLN Friday Closing Price - 1187.53

PCLN made an all-time high in March 2014 at 1378.96 and since then has been showing a topping out pattern, having now tested that high twice successfully, with a rally up to 1329.90 in August and the 1264.00 high seen the first week of February.

PCLN has failed to participate in the strength and new highs seen this year and did generate a negative reversal last week, having made a new 7-week high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low 1182.48 will be seen this week.

To the upside, PCLN shows resistance at last week's high at 1213.31, a bit stronger at 1229.00, and decent at the 2nd successful retest high at 1264.00. To the downside, minor to decent support is found at 1130.86, minor at 1103.90 and a bit stronger at 1087.26. Below that level, minor to decent support is found at 1017.28 and decent to perhaps strong at 990.69 that does include the psychological support at the $1000 level. Below that, there is no support until the 200-week MA, currently at $865 is reached.

PCLN has now built a top formation over a period of a year from which a strong correction can occur and given that the stock started the uptrend back in September 2008 from 45.15 and has appreciated over 3000% in value during these 7 years, it is possible that a strong correction will occur.

It should be mentioned, that PCLN started the uptrend from the 200-week MA and that line has not been tested even once during the last 7 years, meaning that it is within the realm of possibility that a strong correction could take the stock down to the 200-week MA, currently at $865. Nonetheless, for the sake of this mention, the most likely downside objective is the $1000 level that is highly likely to be at least tested due to the top formation built.

Due to the very high value of PCLN, I will be giving the mention using options rather than straight up stock sales.

Purchase of the July 19th 1115 put options, currently offered at 29.80, will offer at least a 3.7-1 risk/reward ratio, with the outside possibility that if the stock does continue lower to the $865 level, the options would be worth as much as $250, meaning an 8-1 risk/reward ratio could occur.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

RHT Friday Closing Price - 73.93

RHT has been on an uptrend since October 2013 when the stock saw a low of 43.89. Nonetheless, the uptrend has showed a tendency to sell off shortly after a "positive" earnings report has come out, with the stock having shown 4 positive earnings reports with spike-up rallies during the past 6 earnings reports, 3 of which saw a correction of anywhere from 7% to 14% soon thereafter. The stock reported earnings just 4 weeks ago and already the stock is showing the same tendency to correct as the previous ones have. In addition, this is the first time that the stock may be in a market correction situation that could ultimately increase the correction percentage seen.

RHT generated a negative reversal week 3 weeks ago, the week after the earnings report came out and that failure to follow through has now been confirmed with 2 additional closes below the high weekly close at 76.53, as well as with a close on the lows of the week last week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.34 is likely to be seen this week and also suggesting that a correction as seen before in the past is occurring again.

To the upside, RHT shows resistance at last week's high of 76.50, which is now considered a successful retest of the all-time high made 4 weeks ago at 77.82. To the downside, minor support is found at the top of the gap between 69.39 and 72.28, which was left after the earnings report 69.39. Further but minor daily close support is found around the $70 level and then nothing until minor intra-week support is found at 66.81. Decent support is found between 62.45 and 62.75 which was a level the stock was unable to get above for 20 months but then when broken was tested successfully. That level will be this mention's objective, especially since the 200-day MA is currently at 63.00.

RHT gapped down on Friday between 74.75 and 74.28 but the bulls managed to close the stock near the highs of the day and the first course of action will be to close the gap, likely on Monday. Such a rally will offer a good opportunity to find a desired entry point where the risk/reward ratio will be attractive.

Sales of RHT between 74.75 and 75.00 and using a 76.60 stop loss and having a 63.00 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated yet again buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the previous 6-month weekly closing high at 8.15. Nonetheless, the stock did get up close, on an intra-week basis, to the upside objective of the $10 demilitarized zone (9.70-10.30) with a high of 9.57 and selling was seen at that level, causing the stock to close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that this coming week's action could go either way. On a daily closing basis, the 8.64 level now seems to be short-term pivotal, meaning that a close below 8.64 any day this coming week would suggest further downside will be seen, likely with 8.15 as the objective. By the same token and green close above a previous day's close, as long as above 8.64, would suggest another attempt at 10.00 will be forthcoming. The probabilities favor the bulls but only slightly as it can be said the upside objective may have been reached with the 9.57 high.

ARNA generated a bit further upside but the bulls were unable to close above resistance at 4.81 or even above minor weekly close resistance at 4.65, suggesting the upside action was not indicative. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range and the action this week could be slightly dependent on the indexes. The stock is likely to be trading between 4.90 and 4.37 for the next few weeks, with a slight chance of 4.20 being seen. Overall the chart continues to "lean" to the bull side but nothing imminent is being seen on the chart. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week but only on a minimal basis.

AXP reported earnings and they were less than expected, causing the stock to make a new 18-month low as well as generating a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 76.53 is expected to be seen. The next intra-week support is not found until 72.08 is reached, suggesting that is the next objective. Support of some consequence is found between 71.47 and 72.08 but the $70 level is now likely to be a magnet, especially considering the 200-week MA, is currently at 70.20, suggesting that is an objective that is now likely to be reached. Stops can now be lowered to 81.27.

BWA did get affected by the drop in the index market on Friday but a minor intra-week support at 59.50 was not broken (got down to 59.60) and the stock reversed to close on the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 60.82 will be seen on Monday. In addition, the stock also closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the stock will go above last week's high at 61.49 this week. Though the stock is likely to feel some effect from a falling index market, it has shown the ability to rally against the indexes, meaning that even if the indexes go down as expected, the stock may not. On a weekly closing basis, the 61.46 level continues to be pivotal resistance, as well as 58.80 pivotal support. The chart continues to favor the bulls.

COF gave a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above a minor weekly close resistance at 81.13. Nonetheless and in spite of the rally this past week, the bulls were not able to get above the decent intra-week resistance at 83.96. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range and will likely move in conjunction with the indexes this week. A rally above last week's high at 83.21 would likely generate new buying, causing the 83.96 resistance to be broken. By the same token, a break below last week's low at 80.43 would be seen as a strong negative, making last week's high at 83.21 into the fourth successful retest of the 9-year high at 85.30 and would suggest the 100-week MA, currently at 75.40 will be visited. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ENG was unable to generate an additional green weekly close on Friday, generating a negative reversal week and a new 22-week weekly closing low as well as a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.47 will be seen this week. The stock is trading at what seems to be a pivotal weekly close support level at 1.50, meaning that the action seen this coming week could be indicative. A rally above 1.67 or below 1.42 will likely set the tone for the next few weeks if not couple of months. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

FCEL traded uneventfully within a 7 point trading range this past week and giving no clue as to what direction the stock will take for this coming week. The stock seems to be mired within a 15 point trading range between 1.20 and 1.35 that does not show any intention of being broken anytime soon. A close above 1.41 would be a breakout, a close below 1.19 a breakdown.

FSLR continued to "inch" upward, having made a new 6-month intra-week and weekly closing high last week but then only by 64 points above last week's close and then only by $1.33 cents above the high weekly close seen 7 weeks ago. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 60.52 than above last week's high at 64.09. The stock is still showing a bullish pennant formation that suggests further upside will be seen in the mid to long term but a small correction might be seen this week, especially if the indexes head lower. Minor support is found at 60.52, at 60.01, at 59.27 and at 58.61. A drop down to retest the $60 demilitarized zone seems likely to be seen. Important and pivotal support continues to be found at 57.80 and intra-week resistance at 65.99. The bullish flag formation continues to offer a 72.53 objective.

GS reported much better than expected earnings this past week but the reaction to the report was negative, having made a new 7-year intra-week high at 202.87 just after the report but then reversing the same day to close in the red, followed by a second red close day on Friday, confirming the negative reversal. The stock still ended up making a new 7-year weekly closing high, above the previous week's close at 195.65, but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 194.77 will be seen this week. The stock did gap down on Friday between 198.70 and 198.25 and did close near the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to close the gap. Intra-day resistance is found between 198.50 and 198.70, suggesting the gap could be closed but no further upside seen. A drop below last week's low at 194.77 would suggest last week's high will be a spike high top to the rally. A daily close below 196.89 would be seen as a small negative, while a weekly close below 195.45 a strong negative that would offer a downside objective of $183. Nonetheless, the positive earnings report and new 7-year high does suggest that the original downside objective of $150 given on the mention is no longer valid. The downside objective now possible is $170-$172.

KMX has not been able to follow through on its better than expected earnings report, having generated nothing but red since the spike high rally and close the day of the report. The stock has now gotten into the gap generated after the report between 69.21 and 71.97 with a drop last week to 70.13. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below 70.13 is likely to be seen. Daily and weekly close support is found between 68.41 and 68.13 (respectively) that if broken would give a failure signal of consequence and offer a minimum drop down to $63 but a possible correction of consequence that could offer a $50 objective. Nonetheless, if the bulls are able to keep the stock from giving a failure signal, a retest of the highs would likely be seen.

ORCL generated a red close on Friday, making the previous week's close at 43.51 into a successful retest of the previous high weekly close at 44.41 that was in turn a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 46.10. The stock now shows 15 weeks of generally sideways trading between $42 and $45 but also shows 2 successful retest of the high, suggesting that the chart is now fulfilled for a correction of consequence to occur. The stock had a negative reversal last week and a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.51 is likely to be seen. Intra-week support is found at 42.21 and at 41.58 that if broken would offer an immediate drop down to the $40 level. A break below 39.57 would suggest the stock would drop down to the 36.50 level and a daily or weekly close below 37.50 would open the door for a drop down to the $35 level, which is the mention's objective.

OSK made a new 7-month intra-week high, having seen a rally up to the 50.10 level. Nonetheless, the $50 level is considered a strong resistance level, both psychologically and from previous trading action, and the stock reversed to generate a red weekly close and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.89 will be seen this week. The stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be a rally up to the 49.40 level. Support is found at 47.89, at 47.69 and likely pivotal support at 46.74 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 47.05. A break and close below 46.70 would be a new sell signal that would suggest the stock will continue lower with a $40 objective. Any daily close above 50.30 would be considered a strong positive. Probabilities favor the bears.

TOL strongly followed through to the negative reversal seen the week before after having made a new 10-year intra-week high at 40.34 the previous week. In addition, the stock generated a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the previous 9+year high weekly close at 39.22. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 37.88 is likely to be seen this week. Important daily and weekly close support is found at 36.92 that if broken would offer at least a drop down to the $35 level, if not down to the 200-week MA, currently at 30.75. Minor resistance is found at 39.09 and the pivotal resistance is found at 40.34. Probabilities favor a small rally to 39.09 at the beginning of the week and then red thereafter.

VHC was unable to follow through to the upside last week in spite of having closed on the highs of the week the previous week. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.72 is likely to be seen this week. The failure to follow through does diminish the strength of the recent bull-run and opens the door for the stock to go back into a sideways mode of trading between 5.00 and 6.95m with a small possibility of the stock getting back down to the 4.05 level. No sell signal has been given yet as a drop below 5.95 would need to occur for that to happen. Nonetheless, the stock now shows 2 successful retests on the daily chart of the 8.09 high seen February and with the index market now likely to get into a strong correction, the probabilities are now starting to slightly favor the bears. As such, I will be looking to take profits this week if the bulls are unable to rally the stock above 7.02 on Monday or no later than Tuesday. the recent high at 7.40. If the bulls are able to get above 7.02, the 7.40 level would still need to be broken to get new buying to occur. The chart does not suggest that will occur.


1) AXP - Averaged short at 83.65 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 81.27. Stock closed on Friday at 77.32.

2) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.28.

3) KMX - Averaged short at 69.366 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.61.

4) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.52.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.94.

6) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.69. Stock closed on Friday at 6.92.

7) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.99. Stock closed on Friday at 8.83.

8) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.64.

9) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. Stop loss now at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 43.00.

10) OSK - Averaged short at 48.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 50.81. Stock closed on Friday at 48.72.

11) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 38.35.

12) COF - Shorted at 79.32. Stop loss at 82.09. Stock closed on Friday at 82.00.

13) GS - Averaged short at 189.625 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 197.35.

14) BWA - Purchased at 60.38. Stop loss is at 58.14. Stock closed on Friday at 60.72.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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