Issue #410
January 18, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


No Clarity Yet and not Likely to be Found this Week!

DOW Friday closing price - 17511

The DOW generated another red weekly close (the third in a row) but the bears were unable to break the previous low weekly close at 17280, even though the index did trade below that level on Friday and twice during the week. The inability of the bears to make a statement of consequence when having the bulls on their backs, likely means that in spite of all the world's problems that are occurring, they need even more negative information to be able to accomplish their goals.

The DOW did generate one small negative statement this week when the previous low "daily" close at 17371 did get broken on Thursday with a close at 17320. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to negate that break on Friday, suggesting that even though they may have lost the uptrend "edge" they have had for the past few years, they still are "alive and kicking".

The volatility being seen in the DOW is worrisome as 4 of the last 6 weeks have had trading ranges above 640 points (the norm is usually 200-400 points). The volatility is often a sign of a top having been made or a major correction in the process of starting, meaning that the burden of proof is now in the hands of the bulls for the first time since the 19% correction seen in the Jul-October 2012 period.

It should be mentioned that there has been a reliable seasonal tendency for a correction of some consequence to start in the first quarter of the year (12 out of the last 15 years a correction has started anywhere between the first couple of weeks of the year up to the first week of April), meaning that the action being seen has a high probability of being a correction, if not a major top. First quarter corrections seen in the past 15 years, when the index has been in an uptrend, have been from a low of 9% to a high of 20%, meaning that if the index is in a seasonal correction there is a lot more to be seen as the drop so far has only been 5%.

To the upside, the DOW will now show decent resistance between 17916 and 17923, minor to decent at 17991 and strong at the all-time high at 18103.(17958 and 18053 on a daily closing basis). On an intra-day basis and using the 60-minute chart, resistance will be found at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 17680 and up to 17750.

To the downside, the DOW will show decent intra-week support between 17243 and 17264 and again decent to perhaps strong support at 17068, that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17010.

It is unlikely that any big decisions by the traders will be made in the DOW this week unless some of the existing conditions (oil prices, Russian Ruble, Greek debt) take a turn for the worse (unlikely). The main concern for this quarter are the earnings reports as they are expected to disappoint, to the tune of a drop of about 6.5%. Nonetheless, the bulk of the important earnings reports are due out the following week, meaning that unless the existing world's problems flare up this week, earnings this week are not likely to be catalytic enough to generate new selling.

Volatility is likely to continue in the DOW and since the index did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 17243 is likely to be seen. A trading range could end up being something like 17175 to 17750 but without any decisive action being seen.

NASDAQ -Friday closing price - 4634

The NASDAQ continued under sell pressure as the bears were able to generate the third red weekly closing in a row, as well as a negative reversal on the weekly chart, having gone above the previous week's high and below the previous week's low and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4563 will be seen this week.

On a small positive note though, the bulls NASDAQ were able to generate a positive daily reversal on Friday, having made a new 20-day low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside, above Friday's high at 4635. In addition, a possible double low may have been built using the 4567 low seen on January 6th and Friday's low at 4563 that could stimulate new buying interest, if and when the bulls are able to get the index above Friday's high at 4635 on Tuesday.

The NASDAQ finds itself presently in a wide 247-267 point trading range between 4814 and 4547 where both the highs and lows (within 10-20 points) have been seen at least twice during the last 8 weeks. That type of volatility has not been seen since the period between March and July 2012 and on that occasion the end result was a strong 20% correction.

For the short-term, the NASDAQ is likely to continue seeing 2-way action as the traders await the bulk of the important earnings reports that comes out the following week.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows minor intra-week resistance at 4663 and very minor at 4703 that is also considered pivot point resistance on the 60-minute char. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance between 4744 and 4751. Further but minor resistance is found at 4788 and then decent to strong between 4810 to 4814.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will show minor to perhaps decent support between 4563 and 4567 and decent at the 11-week low at 4547. Below that level, support is found at 4321 and then nothing until 4116.

The NASDAQ is likely to continue trading in a choppy and wide-trading range fashion this coming week but it is unlikely the index will get below 4547 or above 4814.

SPX Friday closing price - 2019

The SPX bulls have been unable to make any new gains for the index during the past 18 weeks, having seen the index make a new all-time intra-week high at 2019 on September 19th and having closed on Friday at that exact price. The action does suggest the uptrend is at least paused as the traders await more economic information to determine whether the uptrend will continue or a correction or more will occur.

The SPX received the bulk of the important earnings reports for the index this past week (WFC, GS, C, BAC, and JPM) and generally speaking they were either slightly disappointing or as expected, meaning that from the earnings front there wasn't enough positive news to keep the previous 2-year uptrend moving forward. A couple more reports are due to come out this week (AXP and MS) but it is evident that from a financial industry perspective, the news will not help the bulls gain further traction.

The SPX will now be considered once again the "follower" index as it is not likely to lead the market to the upside for at least the next 3 months. On the other side of the coin though, it is the index closest to a pivotal chart support at 2000 and if the bears are able to break that level convincingly, it might be considered the "pivotal" index to the downside that would be the first to signal a correction.

To the upside, the SPX shows very minor intra-week resistance at 2019/2021 and then nothing until minor resistance at 2056 is reached. Minor to decent resistance is found at 2064 that if broken would likely take the index up to decent resistance at 2079 or up to decent to strong resistance at the all-time high at 2093.

To the downside, the SPX will show minor to decent support between 1988 and 1992 and decent and likely pivotal support at the 1-week low at 1972 that does include the always important 200-day MA, currently at 1966. A break of that line on a daily closing basis would be a strongly negative sign at this point that would suggest would drop down to the next level of support at 1904.

The probabilities favor the SPX following the other indexes this week and since those indexes are expected to generate choppy 2-way trading but no decision, it would suggest the index will do the same. Nonetheless, the index did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 1988 is expected to be seen, meaning that the probabilities favor the index getting down to the important support at 1972 or even to the 200-day MA, currently at 1966, and setting up the chart so that the big earnings reports the following week would help the traders decide direction.


Volatility continues to be seen as the traders have been unable to decide on a short or mid-term direction. World's woes (oil prices, Greek debt, etc) have remained unresolved and U.S. economic and earnings reports have not yet to shown enough clarity to help traders determine what to do for the next few months.

This coming week will likely be "more of the same" as there are only a few earnings reports of consequence due out and even less economic reports scheduled that would help the traders make decisions. In addition, oil prices seem to have stabilized for the short term and other factors such as the Greek debt are presently on hold, meaning that this coming week will be mostly uneventful and generally speculative.

Nonetheless, the bears presently have a slight edge, especially since there is a seasonal tendency for a correction to start in the first quarter of the year, meaning that if anything of consequence were to occur this week, it probably would be to the downside.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I did not do any research on new mentions for this week, so none will be given. Nonetheless, I do feel there are a couple of the held stocks where adding positions is suggested. Those will be the mentions this week.

Next week though, I do expect to have quite a few new mentions.

PURCHASES

AREX Friday Closing Price 5.99

AREX has successfully tested the multi-year low at 4.28 with last week's low at 5.01. Having found a bottom, the probabilities now favor a strong short-covering rally back up to the $10 level.

Purchases of AREX between 5.75 and 6.00 and using a stop loss at 4.90 and having an objective of 10.00, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

ARNA Friday Closing Price - 5.40

ARNA received positive fundamental news the previous week that built a bottom and generated a breakout from a downtrend. The stock is in the process of testing that breakout level before new buying is seen.

Purchased of ARNA between 4.71 and 5.11 and using a stop close only stop loss at 4.65 and having an 8.08 objective, will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

FCEL Friday Closing Price - 1.13

FCEL was unexplainably pummeled in price this week, causing the stock to fall to a price level that begs to be purchased.

Purchases of FCEL between 1.02 and 1.05 and using a stop loss at .96 and having a 1.45 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AKS fell strongly this past week after Citigroup cut worldwide Iron Ore forecasts by 10% this past week. The stock fell 25% in value (from 5.40 to 4.05) and caused the stock to make a 15-month low at 3.82. Lower ore prices, especially in a market that is overflowing with Steel, is likely to keep the stock down below $5 for the next 6-12 months, or until such a time that demand increases or supply decreases. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 3.82 is expected to be seen. Support is found at 3.42 and it is unlikely that level will be broken at this time. It should be mentioned that from November 2012 to November 2013, the stock traded between a low of 2.76 and a high of 4.90 with 90% of the trading occurring above 3.42. It is likely the last week's response was overdone as the stock dropped 25% in value though iron ore is only supposed to drop 10% in value. As such, after some follow through to the downside, the probabilities do favor a rally back up to the $5 demilitarized zone with 4.70-4.90 being the most probable upside objective. Weekly close support is found at 3.57, meaning that somewhere between 3.42 and 3.57 there is likely to be some buying interest. Nonetheless, the long positions should be liquidated on a rally back up near the 5.00 level as it is unlikely that the stock will recover past that level for some time.

AMZN made a new 12-week intra-week low at 285.25 but the bears were unable to break the 16-month weekly close support at 287.06, having rallied the stock at the end of the day on Friday. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 285.25 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the highs of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside and above Friday's high at 290.79. Resistance is found at 295.99 and stronger between 301.50 and 303.19, which does include the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 302.50. The trade was supposed to be a day trade but the close on the highs of the day suggested it be kept over the weekend. Nonetheless, with the probabilities favoring a lower low than last week, any rally on Tuesday should be used to liquidate the positions, especially if the stock gets up to the $300 level.

AREX generated a small but positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then closing in the green. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.00 is likely to be seen. A rally above 6.00 would make last week's low at 5.01 into a successful intra-week retest of the 5+ year low at 4.28. By the same token, the green close on Friday already generated a successful retest of the previous low weekly close at 5.16. A daily close above 7.09 and/or a weekly close above 6.98 would generate a buy signal for the stock. The stock has been on a long-term downtrend since February 2012 and a strong mid-term downtrend since June of last year. Nonetheless, this area between 4.60 and 6.40 has been steadfast support in the past and the probabilities do favor the stock having found a bottom and generating at least a good short-covering rally. A weekly close above 6.98 should stimulate a fast rally up to the $10 level. This stock bears watching and adding positions on dips.

ARNA bulls were unable to generate follow through to the upside after the previous week's strong rally. The stock had an inside week and a close near the lows of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 5.13 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, on the daily chart, the stock seems to be building a bullish flag formation that if broken (a rally above 6.28) would offer an 8.08 objective. The bottom of the flag is presently at 5.10 but a drop down to 5.00 would still keep the flag viable. The stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside above Friday's high at 5.50. The 200 10-minute MA, currently at 5.60, is a likely objective for Tuesday. A failure to get above that line and confirm the break (on a 10-minute basis) will bring disappointment and likely cause selling to be seen and a drop below last week's low. The big question for the week will be "how low will the stock drop". The 200-day MA is currently at 4.92 and the previous high daily close from which the breakout occurred is at 4.70, meaning that both of those levels are possible downside objectives. Additional purchases can be considered at any of those prices as the stock has strong probabilities of going higher short-term and even more long-term. Weekly close support is found at 4.53 and any weekly close below that level would be considered a negative.

ENG made a new 11-week low this past week and inched closer to the gap at 1.59 with a low last week at 1.65. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 1.65 is likely to be seen. The probabilities have increased that the gap will be closed which would take some bullishness away from the chart but would not be sufficient to turn the stock negative. Support of consequence is found at 1.50 and if the gap is closed that level would be unlikely to get broken as the stock previously traded down to that price for a period of 2 months without the bulls being able to break the support. A rally above last week's high at 1.82 would suggest that the downside sell pressure is over and with the stock closing near the highs of the day on Friday, it would suggest the bulls will have first crack at breaking resistance rather than the bears taking the stock lower.

FCEL took a strong leg down this past week but I was unable to find any news that could have generated the fall, likely meaning that the fall was chart oriented due to the break of the 200-week MA the previous Friday. The stock fell 21% in value (from 1.43 to 1.13) and did make a new 8-month low at 1.05, having broken the minor to decent support at 1.28 and the decent support at 1.12. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to garner enough buying at the end of the week to keep the stock at or slightly above the 1.10-1.14 daily and weekly closing support that is of some consequence. Intra-week support is found between 1.02 and 1.04 that held the stock up for over 4 months and from which a rally up to 2.41 was seen, suggesting that the stock may find a bottom this week at that level and begin to recover. With no tangible news to generate the selling interest and with the company presently showing 3 buy recommendations and 1 hold recommendation from much higher prices, it would seem to be an attractive purchase this week if the 1.02-1.04 levels are seen. The stock is due to show a profit in 2016 and each earnings report is also supposed to show better bottom lines as the reports come out. Next earnings report due in March. Resistance will now be decent between 1.39 and 1.43. A weekly close above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.45, would be a strong positive.

FSLR made a new 16-month intra-week and weekly closing low on Friday but the rate of descent has slowed considerably as 6 weeks ago the stock got down to the $40 level and since then the bears have been unable to generate inroads of consequence to the downside. The stock did close on the bottom half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 39.81 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the $40 demilitarized zone (39.70-40.30) is likely to continue to hold the selling down to a minimum and if oil prices start to stabilize, a rally could occur. Pivotal resistance is found at 45.39 and general psychological support should be found at the bottom of the $40 demilitarized zone at 39.70.

GIGM generated the 8th red weekly close in a row and in the history of the stock that has only happened once before in 2008 at the height of the recession when the stock fell from 12.88 to 5.85 over an 8-week period of time. The stock though, has reached a level of weekly closing support between .80 and .83 cents that stood up for 7 months and did generate a rally up to 1.49, suggesting that further downside will now be very difficult to achieve. Having closed at .82 cents on Friday, the probabilities strongly favor a green close next Friday. Very minor resistances are found at .89, at .93, and at .98. The next decent resistance is found at 1.00. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below .81 is expected to be seen. Intra-week support is found at .80 and at .78, suggesting that one of those levels will be seen this week but that by next Friday a rally will occur that would generate a green close.

PACB generated a new 41-month intra-week high at 8.77 but the bulls were unable to bring in new buying and the stock fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range and only 3 points above the previous week's close, suggesting that some selling or profit taking interest will be seen this week and that a drop below last week's low at 7.47 will occur. Minor support is found at 7.36 and the strong weekly close support is found at the previous 3-year weekly closing high at 7.19. Strong support continues to be found at 6.25. Minor to perhaps now decent resistance will be found between 8.10 and 8.20. Consideration can be given to taking some profits at that level and looking to rebuy the stock either around 7.06 which is where a gap is found (6.99-7.06) or around 6.50 to 6.60 which is where the next support level is found if the gap is closed. Long-term the outlook remains the same with at least a $10 objective, but short-term the stock might get itself into a trading range mini correction.

QRVO has not yet traded enough to be able to make a good chart evaluation and with it now being 2 companies merged as one, it is difficult to use the old RFMD charts to evaluate the stock. Nonetheless, using the 10-minute chart, the stock has built a double bottom at the 63.02/63.11 level and the stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday and just slightly above the mid-point of last week's trading range, suggesting that the stock is likely to rally at the beginning of the week and also more likely to go above last week's high at 67.99 than below last week's low at 63.11. Support is found at the 65.00 level which does include the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 65.10. Resistance is found at 66.42, at 67.59 and at 67.99. Further resistance is found 69.69 and strong at 71.30. A break below 63.02 would now be considered a negative and possible reason for liquidation.

VHC generated a new 4-week low at 4.66 but then turned around to close still in the red but near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.25 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a daily close on Tuesday at 4.86, followed by 3 green closes, that suggests the downside objective of a close around the 4.95-5.06 level has been fulfilled. Minor resistance is found at 5.65, a bit stronger at 6.11 and then even stronger between 6.80 and 6.85. Nonetheless, the stock seems to have fulfilled is downside objectives and built a support base from which rallies can occur, suggesting the traders will now be keying on the upside and the resistance levels above. The 100 and 200 60-minute MA's, currently at 5.25 and 5.10 respectively, have been pivotal for the stock during the last 10-weeks, especially the 100 60-minute MA. If that line is broken and the break confirmed on Tuesday, traders are likely to key on the upside and a rally next week to the 6.00 level. Any break below 4.66 would now be considered a negative, meaning a stop loss at 4.56 can now be used.


1) PACB - Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.15. Stock closed on Friday at 7.86.

2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.44 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.06.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.13.

4) QRVO - Averaged long at 52.52 (2 mentions) Stop loss now at 55.6. Stock closed on Friday at 65.81.

5) GIGM - Averaged long at 1.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .82.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.70.

7) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.72.

8) FB - Liquidated at 74.49. Averaged long at 74.316. Profit of $52 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.

9) VHC - Purchased at 4.74. Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.24.

10) AREX - Averaged long at 6.36. Stop loss now at 4.18. Stock closed on Friday at 5.99.

11) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.965 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.40.

11) AMZN - Purchased at 287.72. Stop loss at 283.65. Stock closed on Friday at 290.74.

12) AMZN - Purchased at 290.35. Liquidated at 291.66. Profit on the trade of $131 per 100 shares minus commissions.

13) CAT - Purchased at 86.25. Liquidated at 84.58. Loss on the trade of $170 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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