DOW Friday closing price - 17810

The DOW made yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high this past week. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 17894 is likely to be seen this coming week.

The DOW is now approaching the next psychological resistance level at 18000 and it should be mentioned that the last 2 times the index got up near a psychological resistance (at 16000 and at 17000) the bears were unable to generate any kind of correction until "after" the index got above the level by a few points (16174 and 17150), suggesting that no selling of any consequence will occur until after the 18000 level is breached.

The DOW is in a "runaway freight train" mode, having now moved straight up 2039 points over the past 6 weeks (13% in value) and generating 5 green weekly closes in a row without any type of setback. It can be said the rally is mimicking 2012 when the index broke below a previous low of consequence (as it did recently) and then proceeded to rally 1180 points over a period of 5 weeks before a minor correction occurred and 2185 points over a period of 6 months before a stronger correction occurred.

It is evident that the DOW is likely to see some type of correction to this rally very soon but it is also likely that the index will first get up to the 18000 level before traders consider taking profits.

To the upside, the DOW has no previous high resistance but psychological resistance is expected to be found at the 18000 level. To the downside, the DOW shows very minor intra-week support at last week's low at 17603 and then a bit stronger (but still minor) support at 17536. Below that level, the index does not show any kind of intra-week support until the 17000 demilitarized zone is reached. Nonetheless, on a daily and weekly closing basis, support will be found at the previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 17278.

Having reached the rubber band objective at 17828 this past week, the bulls will now be keying on the 18000 demilitarized zone (17970-18030) as the week's upside objective. Nonetheless, it should be mentioned that the DOW did see some profit taking interest on Friday that caused the index to close in the middle of the day's trading range, meaning that if the bears can get enough selling on Monday to take the index below Friday's low at 17721, it could set up the 17894 high as a temporary spike high top for the year. If the bears can then get the index to go below last week's low at 17603, then a lot more selling interest will be uncovered.

The probabilities favor the bulls this week as the uptrend is not likely to turn at this price unless the bears get some fundamental ammunition and ammunition for them has been almost non-existent. Technically the bulls are in control. Nonetheless, the bears will be watching last week's low at 17603 as a possible trigger point for selling to be seen.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4712

The NASDAQ made yet another new 14-year intra-week and weekly closing high. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 4751 is likely to be seen.

The NASDAQ did generate a small negative this past week as the index ended up under-performing the other indexes this week, having rallied only .4% versus the other 2 indexes that rallied over 1% each. The under-performance has to be considered a small warning bell inasmuch as it is the NASDAQ that should be under the guise of a runaway freight train, having a clear objective to the upside of 5132, the all-time intra-week high.

The NASDAQ was the only index that closed near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting that the first course of action for this week will be to the downside, below Friday's low at 4700. A drop below Friday's low will open the door for the high at 4751 becoming a temporary spike high, especially if the index goes below last week's low at 4653. The index closed just slightly above the mid-point of last week's trading range, meaning that it is almost a toss of a coin as to direction for this week.

The slightly negative action seen in the NASDAQ this week probably has to do more with the all-time high monthly close at 4696 as the month ends this coming Friday and it is unlikely that the bulls will be successful in making a new all-time monthly close at this time.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows no intra-week resistance until 5132, though it can be said that the 4700 level could be seen as a "general" resistance area. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at 5048 and on a monthly closing basis, resistance is found at 4696.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will now show minor intra-week support at 4653 and weekly close support at the previous 14-year high daily and weekly close at 4598/4582 respectively. Further but minor support is found at 4542 that could be seen due to the chart showing a "third" unclosed gap between 4575 and 4594 that should not remain unclosed before much further upside is seen. Important and pivotal support is now found at the 4500 level.

The key this week in the NASDAQ is likely to be the 4696 level but unfortunately for the traders that level will not be "in play" until Friday when the month closes out. In the meantime the bulls may get a boost if they can go above last week's high at 4751 and the bears may get a boost if they can take the stock below 4653. That 98 point trading range is likely to "tell the story" this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2063

The SPX continued its uptrend, having made a new all-time intra-week high at 2071 as well as another green weekly close. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside is expected to be seen.

The SPX is now within 32 points of the rubber band theory objective at 2103 and within 30 points of the year's objective at 2100 mentioned by several fundamental analysts.

To the upside, the SPX has no resistance above. To the downside, the SPX should now show minor intra-week support at last week's low at 2034 as well as at 2030 which was a minor spike low seen 2 weeks ago. Further daily and weekly closing support is found around the 2000 level and intra-week support again at 1979. Further but minor support is found between 1966 and 1970.

The SPX was actually the leader this past week, having outperformed the other 2 indexes. The reason for the leadership was that the news this past week was mostly focused on interest rates in both China and in Europe, which is turn was given as the reason for the rally this past week. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the interest rate scenario will generate much more upside by itself, suggesting the leadership of the index might only last 1-2 weeks.

Nonetheless, the SPX is likely to be the leader again this week, simply because it was the index that accomplished the most this past week and had the best close at the end of the week. Just as the 18000 level beckons in the DOW, the 2100 level beckons in the index and since it is unlikely there will be any negative economic news this week, the magnetism of those 2 levels is likely to pull strongly in the minds of the traders.

The probabilities favor the SPX reaching the 2100 demilitarized zone this week, if and when the NASDAQ's monthly close magnet at 4696 does not keep the bulls at bay. The key level for the week could be Friday's low at 2056. If that level is broken on Monday it could put a hold on the upside objective for the later on in December.

The indexes continued higher this week and further upside is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, as the end of the year approaches the action is likely to slow down as it always does in the last 6 weeks of the year. Upside objectives for the indexes have either been reached or are close to be reached, meaning that the traders have very little incentive to be aggressive buyers or sellers at this time.

This coming week does have quite a few important economic reports that if "out of place" might nudge the market in one direction or the other. On Tuesday, the second estimate of GDP, Consumer Confidence and 20-city Case/Schiller report come out and on Wednesday, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment come out and that array of reports going into a 5 day weekend with only half a day of trading on Friday could make a difference. By the same token, most economic reports have been coming out as expected and when not they have been generally ignored, meaning the probabilities favor nothing of consequence occurring, especially to the downside.

Attention this week will likely be pointed at the NASDAQ and the all-time monthly close at 4696. With only 3.5 days of trading this week and Friday being a short day and likely having less than full participation, it is unlikely the traders will make any critical decisions this week.