Issue #407
December 21, 2014
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Fed Helps Turn Market Around!

DOW Friday closing price - 17804

The DOW generated a strong positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing in the green. The reversal also made the previous weeks' close at 17280 into a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close at 17279, suggesting that the index no longer has a chart reason for going lower and is ready to resume the uptrend and make new all-time highs.

The DOW closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 17874 is expected to be seen. With the index having generated an 807 point move last week and the all-time high being only 124 points above at 17991, the probabilities favor the index reaching that level and breaking it this week, especially since the bulls now have momentum.

To the upside, the DOW shows resistance at 17894 and stronger at the all-time high at 17991. If a new high is made, some resistance will be expected to be found around the 18150-18175 level as that "general" area above an even number such as 18000 is, has stopped the index the last 2 times a new high was made at 16000 (stopped at 16174) and at 17000 (stopped at 17151).

To the downside, the DOW will show support between 18670 and 18730 and a bit stronger around the 18500 level. The 200 60-minute MA that has acted as a pivot point line as of late, is presently at 18685. Below 18500 there is no support until the 18280 level.

The bulls seem to be back in control in the DOW, having been able to negate/ignore all the negative fundamental information that has come out of late (lower oil prices and Russian Ruble/Stock market fall) and now only a few points below the all-time high. Probabilities do favor the bulls as the last 2 weeks of the year generally show an upward bias.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4765

The NASDAQ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above 4782 will be seen this week.

The NASDAQ is now only 35 points from the previous 14-year high at 4810 and having rallied 135 points this past week, the probabilities suggest that the uptrend will resume and that a new 14-year high will be made this week.

Though the all-time high weekly close in the NASDAQ at 5048 is still 373 points above Friday's close, if a new high above 4810 is made this week it is within the realms of possibility that the bulls will push the index toward that level given that there is no resistance above, momentum favors the bulls, and participation in the market will be low. It should be mentioned that just 7 weeks ago the same kind of situation was present and the index rallied 393 points in just 2 weeks.

To the upside, the NASDAQ will show minor resistance at 4788 and stronger at the 14-year high at 4810. Above that level there is no resistance until the all-time high weekly close at 5048 is reached.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will show minor support at 4724, minor again at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 4710, and a bit stronger at 4653. Decent support will now be found between last week's low at 4547 and the previous 14-year high weekly close at 4583.

Once again, the NASDAQ has created a "third" open gap between 4651 and 4697 after having closed the previous one between 4575 and 4594 this past week, this that gap is likely to become a magnet at some point as well. Nonetheless, the previous third open gap took 6 weeks of trading before it was closed and the index did rally upward 235 points before the gap became a magnet, meaning that it is possible the index will do the same this time around and head up to the 5000 level before the gap becomes a magnet again.

The big key this week in the NASDAQ is the 14-year high at 4810. If that level gets broken, the probabilities will favor a new rush of buying and a strong and immediate rally to the upside during the last 2 weeks of the year which generally has low participation numbers and a bias to the upside. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SPX Friday closing price - 2070

The SPX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then rallying above the previous week's high at 2075. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2077 is likely to be seen. With the all-time high just 2 points above last week's high, the probabilities favor a new all-time high being made this week.

The SPX outperformed all the other indexes, having generated a 3.3% rally compared to the DOW's at 3% and the NASDAQ's at 2.6%. The likely reason for the leadership is that the strong raise of interest rates in Russia tends to support the financial community in the World, even though the initial reaction was negative.

With the green weekly close on Friday in the SPX, the previous week's close at 2002 will be seen as a successful retest of the previous all-time weekly closing high at 2010 as well as of the psychologically important 2000 level. The 2000 level has now become an important chart pivot point for the future.

To the upside, the SPX shows intra-week resistance at 2079 and decent to possible strong daily and weekly close resistance at 2075. Above that level, there is no resistance but the 2100 level has been said is a fundamental objective for the year.

To the downside, the SPX will show minor but likely pivotal support at 2049. Below that level there is no intra-week support of any consequence until last week's low at 1972 is reached.

The SPX is the index the closest to a previous high of importance and is likely to be the one that the traders will be watching this week for clues. A break above 2079 could open the floodgates for a buying spree to occur, due to the underlying strength of the Xmas holiday period, the low participation seen in the market, and the fact there is no resistance above. Probabilities favor the bulls.


The market negated all of the losses seen the past week that had been due to the falling oil prices and depreciation of the Russian Ruble. Nonetheless, it is important to mention that neither oil prices nor the Ruble negated its losses, meaning that either the negatives are being ignored or the big bull traders are in control of the market and are using all of the tools (momentum, uptrend, Xmas strength, and chart support levels and objectives) to reach the year-end goals they had set previously.

The market turned on a dime this past week after the Fed stated that they would "continue" to support low interest rates for some time. The announcement was not a surprise but the traders used it as a reason to buy the market after the recent drop, perhaps because the fall in prices had accomplished downside technical and chart objectives.

This week there are also a few economic reports with the most important coming out on Tuesday in the form of Retail Sales. Nonetheless, after seeing what happened last week, it is doubtful that any economic report at this time will be viewed in a negative light. Oil prices remain under $60 but the market seems to have found a temporary bottom around the $52 level, suggesting that oil prices will not be a factor for the next couple of weeks. The Ruble is also not likely to offer much "wow" factor this week as it is not anticipated the Russians will do anything more that could affect it. As such, with the bears are not likely to "step up to the plate" after seeing their efforts go by the wayside in just a couple of days. Probabilities favor the bulls.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

With what happened this past week, the probabilities strongly favor stocks and indexes going higher for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Nonetheless, the outlook for the next 3-6 months is not necessary all that rosy, meaning any purchases done at this time have to offer a decent risk/reward ratio and the ability to accomplish enough to the upside over a short period of time. The 2 stocks mentioned fulfill thos requirements.

PURCHASES

AREX Friday Closing Price - 6.87

AREX is a buy mention that I gave on the November 9th newsletter as a purchase around the $10 level but the stock did not get down to the desired entry point at that time (rallied to $13) so the trade was not done. Ultimately the stock did get down to the desired entry point but the market and stock outlook had changed and the buy mention was no longer valid. The stock has now dropped 55% in value from the original desired entry point but did get down to the all-time support level around $5 and this past week generated a key reversal, having made a new 69-month low and then closing above the previous week's high, suggesting the stock may have found a major bottom.

AREX has shown itself to be a volatile trading stock with wide range of movement, meaning that if the stock has bottomed out (looking likely) it could generate a decent rally over the next 3 weeks, making the risk/reward ratio and probability rating attractive.

AREX has been mostly in free-fall mode during the past 21-weeks, having generated a drop from 23.07 to last week's low at 4.28. During this period of 21 weeks, the bulls have only been able to generate 5 green weekly closes (out of 21) so the stock is considered to be strongly oversold.

The stock was showing long-term support at the $10 level when I made the last mention and the stock did bounce up to 13.31 in a matter of 2 weeks and generated 3 of the 5 green closes seen in the past 21 weeks, suggesting that the traders are certainly interested in trading the stock technically since the support level was bought. Now that the stock has gotten down near its al-time low at 3.20 and near the all-time weekly closing low at 4.63 with the previous week's close at 5.16, it can be surmised that the technical buying interest will be stronger at this level and that a rally back up to at least the $10 pivot point level will be seen.

To the upside, AREX shows no resistance whatsoever until the $10 demilitarized zone is reached. Between May 2009 and April 2010 the stock traded up to 10.47, to 10.19 and to 9.65 without being able to go higher, suggesting the $10 demilitarized zone will be difficult resistance to break. By the same token, above $10 there is no weekly close resistance of consequence until 16.73 is reached, meaning that if the rally in the indexes gathers momentum, there is a slight possibility this trade could turn out to be a small home run. On a shorter term basis and using the 60-minute chart, there is no resistance until the 200 60-minute MA is reached, currently at 8.80. As such, the probabilities are high that the trade will begin on a positive note under most possible scenarios.

To the downside, AREX has shown quite a bit of weekly close support at the $6 demilitarized zone with spike low closes at 5.87, at 6.32, and at 6.40 seen the last time the stock was trading at this level back in the 2008-2010 period. Having seen this support work before and considering the positive reversal seen this week, it does suggest that the probabilities of the stock going below the $6 demilitarized zone are now low.

Purchases of AREX around the 6.50 level and using a stop loss at 5.65 and having a 10.00 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

CAT Friday Closing Price - 91.71

I am giving CAT as a buy mention but only if the stock gets down to my desired entry point level, which I doubt will occur. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a positive reversal after having made a new 11-month low and then turning around and closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 92.25 will be seen this week.

On a negative note though, CAT gapped up on Thursday between 90.14 and 90.55 and since the gap was not created with news and an important intra-week support level is found at the $90 demilitarized zone, it would make sense for the bulls to allow the stock to drop down to close the gap as it would generate a better chart scenario for purchasing. Without that occurring, it does not make sense to chase the stock as the risk factor will be increased and the probability scenario decreased.

To the downside, CAT has reached a level between $88 and $90 that has been an important pivot point support/resistance for 3 years. If the indexes are heading higher for the next few weeks, the probabilities strongly favor the stock heading upwards as well, with the likely intention of re-testing the $100 level that has even been more important than the $90 for the same amount of time. Last week's low was 88.03 and if that level is broken, the reversal will have been bogus as well as the support at $88 broken.

To the upside, CAT has some minor to perhaps decent resistance between 94.25 and 95.00 which includes the 200-week MA, currently at 94.75. Nonetheless, it should be mentioned that in this stock the 200-week MA has not been as dependable as in other stocks. Above that level it is open air until $100 is reached, which will be the objective of this mention.

Purchases of CAT between 89.70 and 90.20 and using a stop loss at 87.93 and having a $100 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ADSK short positions were put on as a hedge against the long positions due to the recent break in the indexes. As such, with the market negating the recent weakness, it is likely the trade will be a loser. Stop loss should be at 60.35 as a break above that level is likely to carry the stock up to the 62.00 level at least. In fact, if the stock does not open lower below 59.70 on Monday, consideration for covering the shorts at any price below the stop loss should be given. Intra-day support is found at 59.13, at 58.81 and at 58.45. Only if the stock gets below 58.45 should consideration be given to keeping the short positions.

AKS generated a key reversal week, having made a new 13-month low and then closing above the previous weeks' high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.37 is likely to be seen. In addition, the bulls were successful in closing the stock above the previous and strong daily/weekly close support at 6.12, meaning that a failure-to-follow-through signal to the downside will be given if confirmed. To the upside, very minor intra-week resistance is found at 6.49 and a bit stronger but still minor at 6.80/6.86. Further and stronger resistance is found between 7.32 and 7.75 with 7.58 being an important pivot point on a weekly closing basis. A weekly close above 7.58 would re-ignite the buying interest and likely carry the stock up to the $10 level. The stock gapped up on Thursday between 5.57 and 5.83 and with previous intra-week support found between 5.79 and 5.90, it means the gap should not be closed and a second gap (runaway) seen at some point in the near future. Probabilities favor the bulls but confirmation of the positive factors seen this past week need to occur. A rally above 6.86 would probably "seal the deal" for the bulls.

ARNA generated a positive reversal last week, having made a new 9-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.09 is likely to be seen. The green weekly close has made the previous weeks' close at 3.91 into a successful retest of the 30-month weekly closing low at 3.65, suggesting the bears are not in control in spite of the recent selling seen. On a slightly negative note though, the bulls did not accomplish anything to the upside as daily close above 4.27 needs to occur to generate new buying. In addition, the bulls need to once again negate the previous low weekly close at 4.37 for the bulls to have a good chart reason to buy aggressively. Intra-week support is now found at 3.82. Any daily close below 3.72 would now be considered a negative.

DLTR has been trading totally sideways for the past 4 weeks with the $67-$70 level being the trading range. The bulls were supported this past week by the strong rally in the indexes and yet the stock actually generated a reversal day on Friday, having gone above the previous day's high and then below the previous days' low, as well as having a red close. As such, the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside with 67.50 as a possible objective. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.58 will be seen this week. The stock is not particularly sensitive to the index market, meaning that it is more likely to act on its own than to follow the indexes. Nonetheless, the probabilities still favor the bulls since the stock is showing a bullish flag formation that offers an $86 upside objective if the stock gets above 70.30 but a formation that will be negated if the stock gets below 66.70. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a positive reversal on the weekly chart, having made a new 5-week low but then going above last week's high at 1.95 and closing in the green. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting the stock will go above last week's high at 2.03 this week. If that occurs, the non-closure of the gap between 1.59 and 1.72 (likely to be a breakaway gap) will be confirmed and should generate new buying interest and likely a runaway gap at some point in the near future. Minor resistance is found at 2.03 and stronger at 2.15, but if 2.15 is broken there is no resistance until the 200-day MA, currently at 2.40, is reached. It is important to note that if the bulls are able to generate follow through to the upside this week, on a weekly closing basis, that the 200-week MA, currently at 1.94, will be broken as well, giving additional chart ammunition to the bulls. Support is now important and pivotal at 1.72. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing on the highs of the week and above last week's high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 80.00 is expected to be seen. With the all-time high just $1.28 above Friday's close, the probabilities favor a new all-time high being made this week. In addition, the gap between 79.57 and 76.88 that was generated after the October earnings report and that has been nibbled at during the past couple of weeks but not closed, was finally closed this past week, suggesting that all the negatives of the earnings report have now disappeared. The probabilities strongly favor a new all-time high being made this week, above 81.16 and if that occurs, the upside objective would be the $90 level. Pivotal support is now found at 74.47 but there is a bullish flag formation on the 60-minute chart that does offer an 81.40 immediate objective but that also will be negated if the stock drops below 78.90, suggesting that the 78.90-79.20 level will be used as support this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FCEL continued to be under sell pressure and did generate the second red weekly close in a row in spite of the rally in the overall market. Nonetheless, the stock finally got down to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.45 and did bounce enough to close in the middle of the week's trading range (1.45-1.75), meaning that whichever of those 2 levels get broken this week that it will likely be indicative. The stock shows resistance at 1.77/1.83 and support at 1.52/1.45. If 1.83 gets broken then is no resistance until 1.95 and above that level likely means open air until 2.20 is reached. A break below 1.45, especially if confirmed by a weekly close below that line, would be strongly negative and suggestive that the bulls have failed totally. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls, but it is almost a coin toss.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 14-month low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.70 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet accomplished anything except perhaps some short-covering and they will need to do a lot more before any new buying comes in. Minor resistance is found between 47.56 and 47.73 and the probabilities do favor the bulls being able to get the stock up to that level this week. Nonetheless, a daily close above 47.73 is needed for further upside to be seen. Weekly close resistance is found at 45.54, meaning that if the stock closes in the red next Friday that the selling interest will resume. The stock did gap up this week between 42.41 and 43.36 and that is not a gap that is likely to stay unclosed, suggesting that the stock could see a trading range this week between $42 and $47 dollars, which in turn would mimic last week's trading range of $5. By the same token, if the stock opens higher and breaks above the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 47.01, and the bulls are able to get above the intra-week resistance at 47.56, the gap will lose some of its magnetism and open the door for another gap sometime in the near future. The probabilities very slightly favor the bulls for a short term rally but the bears continue to be in control of the longer term, especially as long as oil prices remain under sell pressure.

GIGM negated one bullish indicator in the fact that the flag formation that was in place became invalid when the stock traded below .94 cents. By the same token, the stock did break a 7-week impasse where the bulls had been unable to generate any new buying and did create what could become a spike low retest of the important support at .87 cents. The stock needs to generate some buying this week above last week's high at .99 cents but if that does occur the chart will look even more bullish for the longer term though the shorter term will likely be delayed a bit. The stock did close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders have not yet made a decision but it is likely that a break above last week's high at .99 or below last week's low at .87 will see follow through in whatever direction is chosen. Probabilities are split evenly.

PACB generated a new 41-month weekly closing high and the stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.50 will be seen this week. The stock still has 2 intra-week resistance levels above at 7.60 and at 8.19 but the new multi-year weekly closing high has now increased the chances that the bulls will be able to break above those levels shortly and generate a rally toward the $10 level. On a daily closing basis, the stock only has 1 resistance above and that is at 7.77. Should the bulls be successful any day this week in closing above that level, a buying binge might occur. Daily close support is now found between 6.90 and 7.06 but unless the indexes take an unexpected dip this coming week, the bulls will be committed to making a new high before the $7 level is seen again. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RFMD was successful in shaking off a downgrade this past week and making a new 12-year weekly closing high. The initial reaction to the downgrade was a negative as the stock went below last week's low at 14.69 that was also considered a decent support level on the intra-week chart. Nonetheless, the bulls were then able to turn the stock around and make the new high and in the process generating a positive reversal week (low below the previous weeks low and closure above the previous week's high), as well as a close near the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 16.07 will be seen. The only concern for the bulls, after this bullish reversal, is that the company that gave the downgrade from buy to neutral stated that the fundamental price objective of $16. Chart-wise though, the stock has no resistance until the $18-$22 level is reached and the resistance there is considered minor. Any drop now below last week's low at 14.45 would be a cause for concern for the bulls.


1) PACB - Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 6.08. Stock closed on Friday at 7.50.

2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.44 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.25.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.59.

4) RFMD - Averaged long at 13.13 (2 mentions) Stop loss is now at 13.90. Stock closed on Friday at 15.96.

5) GIGM - Averaged long at 1.225 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .93.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.90.

7) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.03.

8) FB - Averaged long at 73.725 (2 mentions). Stop loss is now at 74.49. Stock closed on Friday at 79.88.

9) DLTR - Shorted at 69.38. Stop loss is at 70.35. STock closed on Friday at 68.70.

10) AMZN - Purchased at 293.37. Liquidated at 303.63. Profit on the trade of $1026 per 100 shares minus commissions.

11) AMZN - Purchased at 297.97. Liquidated at 296.43. Loss on the trade of $154 per 100 shares plus commissions.

12) RFMD - Purchased at 14.81. Liquidated at 15.88. Profit on the trade of $107 per 100 shares minus commissions.

13) ADSK - Shorted at 59.67. Stop loss at 60.35. Stock closed on Friday at 59.90.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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