Issue #418
March 8, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Fail, Top to Rally Found?

DOW Friday closing price - 17856

The DOW generated a "key" reversal last week, having made a new all-time intra-week high at 18288 and then closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17825 will be seen this week.

The key reversal has set the 18140 weekly close in the DOW seen 2 weeks ago as a viable top to this rally, given the price, the overbought condition, and the seasonal correction that has generally started no later than the first week of March. In addition, the index also generated a failure-to-follow-through signal, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 18053 seen the third week of December. It also needs to be mentioned that the negative action seen last week was mostly off of good economic news, also suggesting that the market seems to have exhausted its ability to generate further upside potential on a fundamental basis.

To the upside, the DOW now minor to probably decent weekly close resistance at 18053 and decent to perhaps major at 18140. To the downside, and on a weekly closing basis, the index shows minor support at 17511, decent support at 17280 and strong at 17164. On a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 17729, minor to decent between 17370 and 17320 and decent at 17164 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17250. Strong daily close support is found 17068.

The action in the DOW on Friday was surprisingly negative, especially given that the Jobs report came in better than expected. With no economic reports of the same ilk due out this week, the bulls are going to have a very tough time trying to reverse/negate the action as they will not have the kind of ammunition that could be used to invalidate the negative signals given.

The DOW is likely to see the 17685-17729 level this coming week as there is minor support there, as well as the general support found 300 points below 18000. Nonetheless, if that level of minor support is broken, the chart shows nothing until minor to probably decent intra-week support is found at 17262, which does include the 200-day MA currently at 17250 that is unlikely to get broken without first generating a bounce up. The weekly chart strongly supports the drop down to the 17250 area this week.

The bulls were unable to generate any kind of an intra-day bounce on Friday and with no economic reports due out on Monday and Tuesday, it is unlikely they will have any success at the beginning of the week. Nonetheless, for the sake of looking at levels that might help the bulls, the first level to watch is 17780, which is where the 200 60-minute MA is found. If the bulls can get above that level and maintain the index above that level for a couple of hours, then a rally up to the bottom of the 18000 demilitarized zone at 17970 might occur. By the same token, based on the consistent failures seen on Friday, that scenario is not likely to transpire.

It is now likely that the DOW will see volatility once again (like what was seen 6-10 weeks ago) suggesting wide trading ranges and big drops as well as rallies. Nonetheless, the key reversal, the seasonal tendency for a correction, and the approaching period of June when many traders are anticipating the Fed will begin to raise interest rates again, does suggest that the end result will be negative, unlike the new all-time high that was made 3 weeks ago.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4927

The NASDAQ also generated a key reversal, having made a new 15-year high at 5008 and the closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4918 will be seen this week.

The NASDAQ fell short by 40 points (1%) of testing the all-time high weekly close at 5048, as well as the all-time intra-week high of 5132, but it can be said the 5000 level was more of a psychological magnet than those 2 previous highs, meaning that it possible to consider that the upside objective of the rally has been reached.

It is also important to mention that AAPL will be moving to the DOW on March 16th, meaning that the NASDAQ will be losing its most important asset (13% of its value) just on that alone. As such, it is going to be very difficult for the bulls to overcome that loss as well as having had a key reversal happen this past week from a major resistance level.

To the upside and on a weekly closing basis, the NASDAQ now will show decent resistance at 4963 and major resistance at 5048. On a daily closing basis, minor resistance is found at 4982, minor to decent at 4987, and strong at 5008. On an intra-week basis, resistance is found at 5008 and at 5132. To the downside, there is no support until minor intra-week support is found at 4860 (runaway gap) and at 4823 (breakaway gap) and minor to perhaps decent daily and weekly close support at 4806 (previous 14-year high daily/weekly close). Further minor but likely pivotal support is found at 4700/4719.

It should be mentioned that the NASDAQ continues to show a new breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap being between 4810 and 4823 and the runaway gap between 4857 and 4860. This gap formation is now very important as closure of it, in conjunction with the key reversal seen this past week, would suggest the index has found a top to the rally.

It should be mentioned that in the year 2000 when the NASDAQ made the all-time high at 5132, the index closed on the highs of the month in February (much like it did the previous Friday) and then went up to the all-time intra-week high at 5132 in the first week of March (much like it did this past week). On that occasion, that scenario ended up being a major top that lasted 15 years. It should be mentioned though, that the index also needs to generate a red monthly close in March, below February's close at 4963, to confirm that the action seen might be of the same ilk as the one seen in the year 2000.

The bulls in the NASDAQ will be between a "rock and a hard place" this week as there is absolutely no support of consequence on the chart until the previous high weekly close at 4806 is reached and no fundamental reports scheduled that would give the bulls some ammunition with which to turn the negative break around. . The intra-day 60-minute chart shows very minor support at the 4900 level but with no other support other than the intra-day chart, it is not likely to hold up, especially since the bulls were not able to hold the index above 4938, which was a much stronger intra-day support than 4900 is. As such, the probabilities favor the index getting down to the runaway gap at 4860 and since that gap did not come off of any positive news, the probabilities favor that gap and the breakaway gap at 4823 being closed, suggesting the index may not find any chart buying interest until the 4800 level is reached.

The probabilities strongly favor further downside being seen in the NASDAQ this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2071

The SPX did not generate a key reversal this past week but that is simply because the index started showing weakness the previous week and the bulls were unable to follow the other indexes into the new high ground this past week.

Nonetheless, the SPX did generate a failure-to-follow-though signal when it closed on Friday below the previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 2090 and 2088 respectively. The index did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 2067 is expected to be seen.

To the upside, the index now shows minor to decent weekly close resistance at 2088 and decent at 2110. On a daily closing basis, decent resistance is found at 2088, minor at 2101 and decent to perhaps strong at the double top at 2115/2117. To the downside, the SPX shows minor support at 2063 and again between 2046 and 2053. Below that there is no support until decent support is found at the 2000 level. Pivotal support is found at 1972.

In looking at the chart of the SPX and based on the failure signal given on Friday, the index now has a high probability of dropping down to the 2000 level before any bounce is seen. The 2000 level is likely to become a major pivot point for the index for the longer term. Probabilities favor the bears.


The indexes all generated signals that a top is now in place. Whether it is a short-term or longer term top is not yet clear but the action seen this past week was strongly negative, especially considering that the fundamental news was mostly positive. It does suggest that at this time further upside is going to be very difficult to achieve under the current fundamental picture.

The economic schedule for this week does not offer any reports of consequence until Thursday when Retail Sales comes out. As such, the indexes are likely to be led by charts and those presently and based on Friday's action strongly suggest further downside will be seen.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The bulls failed this past week in spite of better than expected economic reports and the probabilities of a top having been built are now high. The seasonal correction seen in 12 of the last 15 years has usually started before the first quarter is over, suggesting the time frame is right for the market to head lower at this time.

All mentions this week are sales trying to take advantage of the seasonal correction. The stocks chosen offer high probability numbers due to their own bearishly biased chart formations.

SALES

COF Friday Closing Price - 78.98

COF is the holding company for Capital One credit card. Chart-wise, the stock seems to have run into a brick wall between the $84 and $85 level as the stock first got up to 85.39 in July of last year and then proceeded to generate monthly highs between 82.66 and 84.69 for the next 6 months without making a new high above that level. In January of this year, the traders finally tired of trying to re-generate the uptrend and the stock saw a strong profit taking dive to 72.77 over a period of 4 weeks until the first week of February when the index rally gave the bulls new ammunition to attempt a rally once more.

Nonetheless, COF bulls were only able to get up to 80.82 on this last rally and after 3 weeks of trying to go higher seem to have given up on the attempt to higher prices, having dropped down to 78.20 last week, which was a 3-week low. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below 78.20 is likely to be seen this week.

COF now seems to have built a major top, which was also a successful retest of the all-time high seen in 2006 at 90.04, suggesting the traders will now be trying to see how far they can take the stock to the downside, especially if the indexes are in a correction period.

The likely downside objective for COF is the $70 level which has been a major pivot point since the year 2000 (15 years), having been seen on 8 different occasions during that period of time, both to the downside and to the upside.

To the upside, COF shows minor but psychological resistance at the $80 demilitarized zone and up to 80.42. Additional and stronger resistance is found between 80.71 and 80.82 which was the high seen on Friday as well as the high seen on February 24th, which is likely to become a double top with the added resistance power that it is also where the 200-day MA is currently located.

To the downside, COF shows minor intra-week support at 78.20 (Thursday's low) and a bit stronger at 77.70, which is where 2 previous intra-week lows of consequence from August and December are found. Below 77.70 there is no support until the 75.00 demilitarized zone is reached. Further and also decent support is found between 72.77 which represents the low for the past 10 months. Below that level, support will be found at the $70 demilitarized zone and below that there is nothing until the 200-week MA, currently at 62.85, is reached.

During the past 8 months it can be said that COF has been in a mid-term downtrend, inasmuch as no new highs have been made, or even previous ones broken, and every low has been lower than the previous one, with the last one at 72.77 also representing the 100-week MA. If the indexes are in a corrective phase (now looking more likely), the probabilities favor the $70 pivot point level being seen over the next few weeks. If the indexes are in a strong correction, a drop down to the 200-week MA at 62.85 would then be possible. For the intent of this trade, the $70 level will be the objective.

Intra-day resistance is now found around the 79.30-79.40 level that is unlikely to get broken unless Friday's negative action in the indexes is reversed this week. If that happens, then COF is likely to run up to the $80 demilitarized zone one more time. As such, seeing the action on Monday will be important, as far as the entry point is concerned.

Sales of COF between 79.30 and 79.40 and using a stop loss at 80.92 and having a 70.00 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

GS Friday Closing Price - 186.91

GS has built a bearish Head & Shoulders formation over the past 7 months with the left shoulder at 189.50, the head at 198.06 and the right shoulder at the high seen 2 weeks ago at 193.28. The neckline is presently around 172.32. A break of the neckline would offer a $155 objective.

GS also now shows 2 successful retests of the 7-year high at 198.06 (seen the first week of December) with the first successful retest being seen the last week of December at 196.96 and the second one being the high seen 2 weeks ago at 193.28, meaning that the bulls have now done everything they could to re-generate the uptrend but failed.

GS generated a reversal day on Friday, having gone above Thursday's high and then closing below Thursday's low and on the lows of the day/week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 186.56 is likely to be seen this week.

To the upside, GS shows minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance at Friday's high at 191.40, a bit stronger between 192.68 and 192.87, and decent at 193.28. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the 187.89 to 188.07 level will now be considered decent resistance. To the downside, the stock shows very minor support at 185.59, minor to perhaps decent at 182.40, minor but psychological at the 180.00 demilitarized zone and decent as well as pivotal between 171.26 and 172.32 (neckline of the H&S formation). Below that level, there is very little support until the $150-$151 level is reached.

The $190-$200 level has been a brick wall for GS, having been up close to that level on 10 different occasions over the past 7 years but having only temporarily gotten above $200 once and that was back in May 2008 when the level first became resistance. Having tested that level successfully and with the indexes now showing a high propensity for the downside, the probabilities now favor the stock heading back down to the $150 level that has offered the same kind of support over the past 7 years as $200 has offered resistance.

Sales of GS above 187.50 and using a stop loss at 193.38 and having a $151 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

TOL Friday Closing Price - 36.92

TOL has been trading mostly sideways between $30 and $40 for the past 29 months but it is important to note that the stock made a new 9-year high at 39.95 in March of last year and a new 27-month low at 28.92 in October of last year, suggesting the traders are sensing the stock may be ready to break out or break down out of that trading range sometime in the near future. Nonetheless, for the time being and considering that the indexes are likely heading lower, it does seem that at the very least the stock will be heading back down to the $30 level, which is also where the 200-week MA is currently at.

TOL generated a red weekly close on Friday, making the previous week's close at 38.31 into a successful retest of the 9-year high weekly close at 39.22. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.62 is likely to be seen this week.

TOL bulls have now failed to break the top of the sideways trend and as such, the probabilities strongly favor testing the bottom of the sideways trend at the $30 level, especially since the stock shows multiple daily closes (4) between 30.44 and 30.91 that are now highly likely to be a magnet for the traders, given that the indexes may have found a top to their rally.

To the upside, TOL shows intra-week resistance at 37.10, at 38.36 and at 39.08. Further resistance is found at 39.95 but if the 39.08 level is broken, it is likely the stock will get above 40.00. To the downside, the stock shows no support until minor support is found at 34.50. Further support is found at 33.26, a bit stronger at 32.34, and again at 30.81, that does include the 200-week MA, currently at 30.20. Strong support is found at 28.92.

TOL shows multiple lows both around the 30.00 level and again around the 28.40 to 28.92 level that suggests the traders will be keying on breaking all of those, especially if they can get the help of the indexes.

Sales of TOL between 37.00 and 37.50 and using a stop loss at 39.35 and having a downside objective of at least 30.00 will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, the trade does offer decent possibilities of getting below $30 and making the risk/reward ratio much better.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated a red weekly close but the bears were unable to engender any sell signal, having closed still above the previous high weekly close at 6.98 that produced the buy signal in the first place. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 7.07 is likely to be seen. Support is found at 6.85 and again 5.81 but any break below 6.85, especially if a daily and weekly close is seen below 6.98 would suggest the small recent uptrend is over and that the stock will likely get into a sideways trading range between $6 and $8 for the next few weeks, if not months. Resistance is now decent at 8.34 that if broken would suggest the uptrend will continue with the $10 level as the objective. As such, the action this coming week is likely to be indicative. The price of oil is more likely to affect the price of the stock than the indexes. Oil closed on Friday at 49.70.

ARNA generated a drop down to the 3.82 support with a low of 3.85 this past week. Nonetheless, the stock rallied to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 4.50 will be seen. If that does occur, the 3.85 low will be seen as a spike low that should generate new buying interest. Resistance is found at 4.74, at 4.90 and at 4.97. A break above the most recent high at 4.78, in conjunction with a close above the 200-day MA, currently at 4.63, would be a decent positive. Support is now found at 4.13 and at 4.01. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AXP generated a red weekly close on Friday, making the previous week's close at 81.59 into a successful retest of the support level at 80.69 that got broken and gave the second sell signal. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's close at 80.06 is likely to be seen. Intra-week support is found at 78.41 and at 77.12. Likely pivotal resistance is now found at 83.47, suggesting the stop loss should now be dropped down to 83.57. The probabilities do favor the stock dropping down to at least 78.41 but also favor the downtrend resuming. If 77.12 is broken convincingly, the objective will be the $70 level.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 17-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing in the green. More importantly, the new low was not sufficient to close the gap at 1.57, meaning the gap is still considered a possible breakaway gap. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 1.93 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, this week will be all about the earnings report that comes out before the market opens on Thursday. A positive report will likely generate a second gap, likely to be considered a runaway gap, while a disappointing earnings report will likely push the stock down to close the breakaway gap and put the stock back on the defensive. If that happens, the support at 1.50 would become pivotal. Any rally above 2.28, and/or weekly close above 2.00 would be a positive.

FCEL generated a new 7-week high on Friday and the stock closed right at the 200-week MA, currently at 1.41, meaning that the close next Friday is going to be indicative. The company releases its earnings report on Tuesday after the close and that report is likely to be decisive as to the short-term future of the stock. Minor resistance on a daily closing basis is found at 1.54, which includes the 100-day MA. Further and stronger resistance is found at 1.75-1.77 (1.72 on a daily closing basis) that if broken would be short-term indicative and likely generate a rally up to the 1.95-2.00 level that if broken on a closing basis would likely push the stock into a short-term uptrend. Important support is found between .98 and 1.05. The direction for the week is going to be based on the earnings report.

FSLR generated the 5th green weekly closing in a row but more importantly confirmed the break of the 50-week MA, currently at 59.00, with a second close in a row above the line. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the stock might follow whatever the market or oil prices do this week. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative key reversal on the daily chart on Friday, having made a new 6-month high and then closing below the previous day's low, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Minor support is found at 60.15 and decent as well as pivotal support is found at 57.80, which is also where the 200-day MA is located. Probabilities favor a pause-in-the-uptrend week, a drop below last week's low at 59.03, but a close next Friday above that same level. A rally above last week's high at 62.27 would likely negate the scenario, suggesting 65.99 will be seen.

KMX generated a strong down week, confirming the double top on the weekly closing chart at 67.61/68.13. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 62.89 is likely to be seen. Support is found at 61.83 and stronger and more indicative at 60.83. Any daily close this week below 62.10, especially if confirmed with a second close in a row below that level, would be a sell signal of consequence. The same level of support is found on the weekly closing chart and if both get broken this week, the downside objective would be a minimum of $55, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. Resistance of consequence is now found between 65.85 and 66.30 which includes the gap that was generated on Wednesday between 66.95 and 66.00. Closure of the gap would be a decent positive for the bulls, but another gap, or a failed attempt to close the gap, would be a strong sell signal.

ORCL generated a decent spike down this week and a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 42.30 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no support of consequence was broken during this move, meaning that 2+-month "short-term" downtrend has not officially resumed. By the same token, important support between 41.40 (200-day MA) and 41.56 (previous intra-week low of consequence) is likely to be reached this week and if broken, it would be an official sign that the short-term downtrend has resumed and an objective of at least 38.96/39.53 would be given. Daily close resistance is minor to perhaps decent at 43.41 but if broken, much of the sell pressure would abate. Probabilities favor the bears.

OSK generated a red weekly close, making the previous week's high at 49.40 (48.79 on a weekly closing basis) a successful retest of the 50-week MA, currently at 49.30. In addition, it can be said that the 200-day MA, currently at 49.95 was also tested successfully. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that last week's low at 46.00 will be broken this week. Minor intra-week support is found at 45.36, which includes both the 50 and 100 day MA's, and a bit stronger at 44.16. Further but minor support is found at 43.08 and then nothing until the $40 demilitarized zone is reached. Below that level, support will be found at the 200-week MA, currently at 37.00. The stock gapped down on Monday and the gap between 48.67 and 47.86 is now considered a possible breakaway gap that is even more relevant because of the 200-day MA. Probabilities favor the bears, especially if a second gap is generated. Downside objective for now is the 37.00 level.

QRVO got above the previous all-time high weekly close at 73.85 on both Thursday and Friday but the bulls were unable to close above that level on Friday, suggesting the stock may not be ready to resume the uptrend. In fact, the red daily close on Friday does make Thursday's close at 74.51 into a successful retest of the all-time high daily close at 75.76, suggesting that a drop back down to the 70.00 level will be seen this week. By the same token, the bulls were able to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 75.15 will be seen this week and that the all-time intra-week high at 78.05 may be tested. Using the intra-day charts, the 71.50 level seems to be a small pivot point that if broken would suggest that the $70 demilitarized zone will be visited. It is difficult at this time (with the short time this stock has been trading as QRVO) to measure the effect of how much a correction in the indexes will affect this stock, suggesting that a stop loss be placed at 71.40 with the idea of re-evaluating the stock when it gets down to the $70 level. A close above 75.76 would be considered a bullish statement.

VHC generated a red weekly close, as well as a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.80 will be seen this week. Drops as low as 5.85 could be seen as the stock is likely to retest the daily close breakout level at 6.19 and even perhaps the weekly close breakout level at the 5.85-6.11 area. Intra-week support is found at 6.05 that should hold up but that will likely be the downside target for this week. The short-term trend is still up but because the index market is likely to continue lower, the probabilities favor weakness this week. Daily close resistance is found at 7.58 that if broken would negate the week's bearish scenario. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) AXP - Averaged short at 83.65 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 83.57. Stock closed on Friday at 80.31.

2) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.41.

3) QRVO - Averaged long at 52.52 (2 mentions) Mental stop at 71.40. Stock closed on Friday at 72.98.

4) KMX - Shorted at 68.20. Averaged short at 66.45. Stop loss now at 68.81. Stock closed on Friday at 63.00.

5) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.80.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.61.

7) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.95. Stock closed on Friday at 6.83.

8) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.71. Stock closed on Friday at 7.08.

9) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.32.

10) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. No stop loss now at 44.47. Stock closed on Friday at 42.38.

11) AMZN - Liquidated at 379.62. Purchased at 376.59. Profit on the trade of $303 per 100 shares minus commissions.

12) OSK - Shorted at 48.32. Stop loss at 50.81. Stock closed on Friday at 46.80.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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