Issue #412
February 1, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Action Suggests Seasonal Correction has Started!

DOW Friday closing price - 17164

The DOW gave a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having generated a close on Friday below the 3-month low weekly close seen the second week of December at 17280. The index closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 17136 is likely to be seen this week.

The sell signal in the DOW came on the heels of a lower than expected GDP number on Friday and when added to the ills being seen around the world (lower oil prices, weaker Ruble, Greek election results that suggest the Greek may forfeit their debt, etc.) does suggest that the index is likely to be heading lower.

The bulls will have a chance to negate the break this week if the ISM Index on Monday and Jobs reports on Friday come out better than expected. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor that scenario and if the sell signal is confirmed with another close below 17280 next Friday, the seasonal correction is likely to have started.

The DOW has now fulfilled all the chart requirements for a top (albeit possibly a temporary one) having been formed. The all-time high at 18103 has been successfullytested twice and the previous low weekly close, as well as the previous all-time high weekly close at 17279, were both broken on Friday, giving not only a sell signal but a failure-to-follow-through signal as well. As such, the burden of proof is in the shoulders of the bulls and without much ammunition available, the probabilities favor further downside and perhaps of consequence.

The last time the DOW generated a break of weekly close support (as was seen on Friday) was in August 2012 and on that occasion the index corrected a total of 19.2% over a period of 4 months (May to September). A correction of that magnitude would offer a downside objective of 14627. By the same token, the big key will be confirmation of the break next Friday as in October of last year the index generated a sell signal and failure-to-follow-through signal on the weekly chart, after having dropped 8.7% in value but the bulls were unable to confirm the break, having the index close in the green and above the broken supports the week after. As such, the close next Friday will be pivotal (after the economic reports this week) with negation or confirmation of the break giving a strong cluse as to what the index will do the next month or two. .

To the upside, the DOW will now show minor but likely pivotal daily close resistance at 17416. A close any day this week above that level would stimulate new buying interest and a rally up to the 17700 area. To the downside, pivotal support is found at 17068, that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17065. A confirmed close below that level, and especially below the 17000 demilitarized zone (16970-17030) will open the door for a drop down to the next intra-week support level of consequence at 16333.

The probabilities favor a choppy week with the DOW getting down to at least the 17065 level and likely up to at least the 17300 level as the traders await the economic reports due out this week. Nonetheless, the bears now have the edge.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4635

The NASDAQ closed within a cat's whisker of giving a second sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday just 1 point above the previous 3-month low weekly close at 4634, generated the second week of January. Nonetheless, the index had already given a sell signal with that close when it broke the low seen the second week in December at 4653.

The weakness seen in the NASDAQ is considered indicative, especially since the index has been the one receiving much better than expected earnings in NFLX, AAPL, and AMZN, suggesting that if any of the indexes were to be indicative of buying interest it would be the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4601 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, as with all indexes, the recent intra-week lows have not yet been broken (in the NASDAQ at 4547), meaning that the bulls could still "pull the rabbit out of the hat" if the economic reports due out this week are better than expected.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows minor but possibly pivotal daily close resistance at 4683. Further daily close resistance will be found at 4736 and then decent daily close resistance at 4771. Further daily close resistance is found at 4791 and at the 14-year high daily/weekly close at 4806.

To the downside, the NASDAQ will show minor daily close support at 4592, minor to decent at 4570 and decent at 4547. On an intra-week basis, decent support is found at 4560 and then decent to strong at 4547. Further support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 4470.

The bulls have to feel strongly disappointed in the action seen in the NASDAQ over the past 2 weeks, seeing that better than expected earnings reports on AAPL (has rallied 9% in value), AMZN (has rallied 17.7% in value) and NFLX (has rallied 27% in value) and yet the index finds itself near the lows of the last 3 months. With 90% of the big stocks in the index having reported already, it is unlikely that earnings reports will help the index recover if those 3 stocks were unable to generate resumption of the uptrend.

This coming week, the bulls in the NASDAQ are likely to depend on economic reports as well as continuation of the recent rally in those 3 stocks, but the reality is that NFLX seems to have reached a level of resistance that is unlikely to be broken, AMZN has reached levels of resistance that are likely to generate some selling interest and AAPL is the one stock that is already at all-time highs but has generated the least percentage rally, suggesting that the bulls will need the entire market (not just the NASDAQ) to rally in order to prevent further downside.

Like with the other indexes, the NASDAQ is likely to get down to the intra-week support levels mentioned above and generate a bit of a bounce as the traders await the economic reports this week. Nonetheless, the bears now have the edge and the bulls are the ones with the burden of proof on their shoulders. If the index breaks support and mimics the correction seen in 2012, the downside objective would be the 3860 level.

SPX Friday closing price - 1995

The SPX also gave a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the 3-month weekly closing low at 2002. The index closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1989 is likely to be seen.

The SPX, like the DOW, is likely to get down to the 200-day MA, currently at 1975, which also includes the 3-month intra-week low at 1972. Drops down to that level are likely to be seen but if the ISM Index report is better than expected, it is likely a bounce will occur as the traders await the Jobs Report on Friday.

To the upside, the SPX now shows minor but likely pivotal daily close support at 2021. A close above that level any day this week will likely generate further upside up to the 2050-2070 level. Important and decent daily close resistance is found at the double high at 2062/2063 and then strong resistance at the all-time high weekly close at 2090.

The probabilities favor the SPX being a "follower" this week but any break and close below 1970/1972 would suggest further downside. Based on the 20.7% correction seen in 2012, an drop down 1668 would be objective


The important earnings reports this past week were mostly better than expected but the bulls were unable to generate a positive resolution at the end of the week. Important economic reports are due out this week, with the ISM Index due out on Monday and the Jobs report on Friday. Those reports could help determine the direction of the market for the next few weeks. Nonetheless, the problems being seen around the world and the disinflation that now seems to be seeping into all economies, suggest that buying interest will not be enough to turn the indexes around.

In addition, there has been a seasonal tendency in the first quarter of the year for the indexes to generate a correction of some consequence, having seen such a correction occur on 12 of the last 15 years. The probabilities now favor such a correction having started.

With support levels of importance close by and by the end of the week most of the important earnings and economic reports will have been released, it is highly likely that a decision on direction will be made by the end of the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The probabilities of the seasonal correction having starting increased strongly with the action seen last week. As such, the only positions that can be seriously considered at this time are shorts.

Nonetheless, the direction of the market is not yet "set in stone" as the bulls will have 2 more opportunities this week to negate the sell signals given on Friday with the ISM Index and Jobs reports due out this week. The probabilities favor choppy trading and some rallies being seen this week but those rallies are likely to be used by the traders to institute short positions and/or liquidate long positions.

All mentions this week are sales but in most cases a small rally will need to be seen to get up to the "desired entry point".

SALES

ORCL Friday Closing Price - 41.89

ORCL made a new all-time intra-week high in December at 46.70, above the previous all-time intra-week high at 46.47 seen in the year 2000 and above the most recent previous 14-year high at 43.19 seen in June. The index accomplished the new high based on a better than expected earnings report as well as gains on its involvement in the Cloud Computing industry.

Nonetheless, just 2 weeks after ORCL made the new all-time high it starting giving up its gains, having generated 3 red closes out of the past 5 weeks, and on Friday the stock gave a failure to follow through signal, having closed below the most recent previous 14-year high weekly close made in June at 42.63.

ORCL generated a monthly close in December at 44.97 and a red monthly close in January, meaning that the stock now shows an ominous double top on the monthly closing chart at 45.47 (seen in August 2000) and the 44.97 monthly closing high seen in December, as well as a double top on the intra-month chart at 46.47 and 46.70.

The double top now in place in ORCL is likely to bring quite a bit of chart sell interest, especially since the indexes also seem to have found at least a temporary top and the beginning of a correction. In addition, the stock has already retested the previous high successfully, suggesting that there are no pressing chart reasons for any upside action at this time, other than perhaps one more small rally this week, much like the indexes are expected to have.

To the upside, ORCL will now show minor to perhaps decent resistance at the previous 14-year intra-week high at 43.19 and decent resistance at the intra-week high seen the previous week at 45.33 (44.19 on a weekly closing basis).

To the downside, ORCL will show minor to perhaps decent support at the $40 demilitarized zone , minor at 37.38 which includes the 100-day MA, and decent at the 52-week low at 35.82. Further support and a likely target should the indexes get into a strong correction, would be the 200-week MA, currently at 34.05.

The monthly chart in ORCL suggests that the stock will drop down to the 35.80 level which has not only been recent support but was also support back in the year 2000. As such, this trade will be all about the objective being 35.80.

The probabilities suggest that ORCL will generate a move down this week to the $40 demilitarized zone as well as a rally back up to either the high weekly close from June at 42.64 or the intra-week high from June at 43.19. Such a rally should be used to short the stock.

Sales of ORCL between 42.63 and 43.18 and using a sensitive stop loss at 43.35 and having a 35.80 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. A more secure stop loss would be at 45.43 but it would lower the risk/reward ratio to 2-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 if using the stop loss at 43.35 and a 4.25 if using the stop loss at 45.43 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

IR Friday Closing Price - 66.40

IR reported much better than expected earnings on Friday and made a new 14-month high, above the previous high seen in December at 65.00. The stock closed on the highs of the day/week and further upside above last week's high at 66.54 is expected to be seen, especially since there is likely to be some margin call short-covering at the beginning of the week, which could help the stock go up for another couple of days before some new selling interest is seen.

Nonetheless, in spite of "highly unexpected" five-fold increase in earnings that helped IR buck the selling in the indexes on Friday, the company gave a less than expected outlook for the year, suggesting that the earnings report is not likely to stimulate additional buying once the short-covering and margin calls are fulfilled. In addition, the bulls have not yet been successful in reaching or even getting close to the all-time high at 71.75, meaning the bears still have a level of resistance they can concentrate on to sell against as the stock moves higher this week.

To the upside, IR shows resistance at the old pre-share split high at 71.75 seen in November 2013. Nonetheless, that high is not really valid as a resistance level since using the old share value before the shareholders received 5 shares for every 4 they owned, the stock actually made a new all-time high this past week. Nonetheless, with the indexes likely heading lower, it is likely the traders will "use" that pre-share-split high as a selling point.

To the downside, IR will show minor support at 61.78 and decent support at the $60 demilitarized zone. Further but minor support is found at 57.95 and then nothing until the $55 level is reached. Just 4 months ago, IR traded down to 52.47 before getting on the recent uptrend, which has been steep and with only 1 pause/mini-correction seen during that period of time. As such, should the stock start finding selling interest around the $70-$71 level and the indexes get into the seasonal correction, which could be of consequence, the possibilities of getting back down to $55 or even down to $52.50 level could be high.

Nonetheless, this short trade in IR will require the stock to continue higher this week and reach at least 68.97 level where using the old chart a gap is shown.

Sales of IR between 68.96 and 71.42 and using a stop loss at 71.85 and having a 55.00 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

KMX Friday Closing Price - 62.10

KMX is a used car retailer that has benefitted from the recent upsurge in the used car business. During the period from October to December the stock moved up from 43.27 to 68.71 and in the process made a new all-time high above 53.67. The rally was accomplished with no correction of consequence and only minor pauses along the way.

KMX reported much better than expected earnings on December 19th and did gap up from 60.65 to 64.66 and continued higher for an additional day and an all-time high at 68.71. Nonetheless, since that high was made the stock has been mostly heading lower, having generated 18 red close days out of the last 26 and dropping into the gap area with a low seen on January 16th at 61.83. The weakness has been even more telling, given that Oppenheimer gave a buy rating with a $75 objective on January 2nd, and yet traders did not respond favorably to that.

KMX has now tested the all-time high at 68.71 on 2 occasions with a rally up to 66.30 on January 8th and a rally to 65.84 on January 23, suggesting that all needed and required retests of the high have been accomplished. In addition, the stock is now back to the low seen on January 16th at 61.83, having seen a low last week at 62.02 and closing on the lows of the week, also suggesting the high probability the gap will be closed, which in turn would negate one of the bullish chart signs.

To the upside, KMX shows resistance at 65.84 and at 66.30 with a daily closing high at 64.87 that is now considered minor to decent as well as pivotal resistance. To the downside, there is minor intra-week support at 57.82 and minor to probably decent at 54.04 that does include 4 previous highs of some consequence between 53.67 and 54.28. As such, that level is the downside objective, though an intra-day drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 52.35, might be seen.

KMX is likely to have a choppy week this week with decent possibilities of the gap at 60.54 being closed as well as a rally as high as 64.94 being seen. Nonetheless, this is not a stock worth chasing, meaning that a short position should only be considered if the stock rallies.

Sales of KMX between 63.60 and 64.90 and using a stop loss at 65.95 and having a downside objective of 54.00 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2015, as of 1/1

Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

ARNA (long) $214
AMZN (long) $117
AMZN (long) $1419

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for January, per 100 shares and after commissions $1750

Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CAT (long) $184
AMZN (short) $312
AMZN (long) $58
IBM (short) $133
HD (short) $156

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

FB (long) $1083
GIGM (long) $51

Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $1977

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

AREX (long) $75
VHC (long) $120
AXP (short) $134
DD (short) $145

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

PACG (long) $40
QRVO (long) $243
ARNA (long) $267

Total $1024

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AREX (long) $24
FSLR (long) $908
ENG (long) $30
ELON (long) $60
FCEL (long) $136
AKS (long) $645

Total $1803

Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $1006

Status of account/portfolio for 2015, as of 1/31

Loss of $1006 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

AKS reported better than expected earnings this past week but the rally was used as an opportunity to sell the shares at a higher price due to consistent "and recent" reports of oversupply of steel in the world, most especially in Asia. The stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the red below the previous week's low, suggesting further downside will be seen this week, below last week's low at 3.62. It does seem that the stock broke a bearish inverted flag formation with a downside objective of 1.65 but such a target is highly unlikely to be reached, meaning the inverted flag will likely not occur or be turned into something else. Support is found at 3.42 and it is unlikely that level will be broken at this time. It should be mentioned that from November 2012 to November 2013, the stock traded between a low of 2.76 and a high of 4.90 with 90% of the trading occurring above 3.42. It is likely the selling seen this week was exacerbated because of the failure of the stock to maintain the rally after the earnings report. Nonetheless, with some decent support below, it is possible that a positive reversal week will occur, especially since the earnings report was positive. The key has to be the 3.42 level (3.57 on a weekly closing basis. A break of that level will likely bring in additional selling interest. The high seen this week at 4.43 is now likely to be pivotal resistance that if broken would likely generate a rally to the 4.70-4.90 level. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.

AREX generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.81 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, oil prices did generate a bit of a rally on Friday, suggesting that some buying interest is being seen near the $43/$44 level and if that is confirmed this week it could offer the bulls a fundamental reason to buy the stock. Minor support is found at 5.81 that will become stronger support if the stock is able to get above Friday's high at 6.76. Additional and possibly short-term pivotal support is found at the 200 60-mintue MA, currently at 6.12, that has held up on an hourly closing basis since it got broken to the upside 9 days ago. The key to the week will likely be Thursday's low at 5.81 and Friday's high at 6.76. Whichever one of those gets broken this week will likely generate follow through. Additional hourly close support is found at 5.35 and additional hourly close resistance is found at 7.35. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

ARNA had an unexpectedly negative week, having closed below the high daily close at 4.53 that got broken to the upside after the company announced the successful Phase 1 results 4-weeks ago on one of their new products. The close on Friday further weakened the chart when the stock also closed below the 4.37 weekly close support that held up to 10 months (between Oct 2013 and Aug 2014) before getting broken to the downside, suggesting the rally to 6.28 was a false breakout. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.30 is likely to be seen this week. Intra-week support is found at 4.05 and at 3.82 that absolutely has to hold up or the stock is likely to make a new multi-year low below 3.26. In fact, the bulls need to generate a reversal this week and close next Friday above 4.53 or the stock is likely to get into a sideways to down trading range for the next 1-3 months. Minor but pivotal resistance is found at 4.86, which is also where the 200-day MA is currently at. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

AXP generated a new 15-month low weekly close on Friday, having closed below the 82.58 low weekly close seen in October 2014. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 80.56 is expected to be seen. Intra-week support is found between 78.41 and 78.63 that represents the lowest intra-week low since October 2013, as well as 2 previous intra-week highs of consequence from June and July 2013. A break of that level, especially with a weekly close below 78.04, would suggest a drop down to at least 71.68 but probably even down to the 200-week MA, currently at 68.70. Probabilities favor a drop down to the 78.50 level this week but a bounce back up to the 83.83 level (likely over the next 2 weeks) to retest the breakdown level. Nonetheless, overall the break of support this week was meaningful and a drop down to the 200-week MA is now likely to be seen over the next couple of months.

DD gave a "small" sell signal on Friday, having made a new 7-week weekly closing low as well as having broken a minor but likely short-term pivotal weekly closing support at 73.50. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 70.95 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, the bears still need to break below the most recent intra-week low at 70.19, as well as below the low for the past 12 weeks at 68.54, in order to generate real selling interest. A break below 68.54 would likely take the stock down to the 65.50 level. Nonetheless, if the indexes are in the seasonal correction and 63.70 is broken, the objective would be the 200-week MA, currently at 55.95. Resistance is now found at 72.92 and at 73.53 that if broken to the upside would negate the weakness seen this past week. Downside objective for this week is likely to be the December 16th low at 68.54 which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 68.75. Likely trading range for the week is 69.70 to 72.92.

ENG bears have been unable to break below 1.65 for the past 3 weeks even though the stock has seen that low each and every week. More importantly, the gap down at 1.59 has NOT been closed, suggesting that the bulls have a bit more strength than the selling interest seen the past 10 weeks. The stock did generate a spike up this week as well as a close on the high of the week and 1 point above a previous high weekly close of some importance at 1.79 that was seen on November 2013. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.88 that includes the 200-week MA, currently at 1.86, as well as decent daily close resistance at 1.90. Those levels are likely to be seen this week and if the bulls can close the stock above 1.90 it will offer a strong possibility of a rally up to 2.37 or perhaps even up to the 200-day MA, currently at 2.45. Some intra-week resistance is found at 2.03 that could be seen this week. The big question this week is whether the bulls can generate the daily and weekly closes needed to re-generate buying interest. Any drop below 1.65 would now be considered a negative.

FCEL managed to achieve the 4th green close in the past 12 weeks but did it in a spike-type fashion, suggesting that some buying interest is finally being seen. The company is still rated a sell by most analysts but at these prices there are reasons to believe the stock could outperform the market, though likely slightly. The stock rallied up to the 1.39 resistance level (got up this week to 1.38) that stood up for 1-year between Apr12 and May13. The bulls were unable to break that level and fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of the stock going below last week's low at 1.12 than above last week's high at 1.38. Nonetheless, the spike type rally and green weekly close does suggest the stock is more likely to trade sideways between 1.12 and 1.30 than break above the recent high or recent low. Any weekly close above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.42, would be a positive. Probabilities favor sideways trading this week.

FSLR got above the previous week's high but did close in the red on Friday, suggesting the bulls still do not have enough buying interest to stage a rally of consequence. By the same token, the bears seem to have also run out of strength as the stock generated 4 red daily closes in a row this week but all within a $1.50 trading range and none of consequence, meaning that the buying interest is matching the sell interest seen over the past 5 months. Minor support is now found at Thursday's low at 41.15 and decent support is now found at the $40 demilitarized zone. Decent resistance is now found between 44.38 and 44.44 and a bit stronger between 45.34 and 45.70. Probabilities favor the stock trading within that trading range this week, though the rally in the price of oil on Friday could give the bulls a bit more strength than the bears. Any break above 45.70 would be considered a strong positive that would generate a rally up to the $50 level. A new low below 39.19 would generate new selling interest and a likely drop to $37.

PACB made yet another new 41-month weekly closing high on Friday with a close at 8.03, above the previous week's close at 7.88. Nonetheless, for the past 11 trading days, the stock has mostly traded between 7.47 and 8.34 without any strong or decisive clue as to whether the stock is heading higher or generating some type of correction. Probabilities still favor the bulls. Support now found at 7.30 and resistance at 8.78.

QRVO reported better than expected earnings and made a new all-time high this past week at 78.05, having gone above last week's high at 74.34. The stock was also upgraded to an $80 objective. Support is now at 71.50 and resistance at 78.05. Probabilities still favor higher prices but a break below 71.50 would suggest a small correction could occur.

VHC generated a rally this past week up to the minor to perhaps decent resistance at 6.12, with a rally up to 6.16. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to hold on to their gains and the stock closed on the lows of the week (though still in the green), suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 5.32 will be seen this week. Support should be found at 5.19 that if it holds could generate another round of buying the week after. The 100-day MA, currently at 5.80, did hold down the rally this past week. If that line is broken on a daily closing basis, in conjunction with a rally above 6.16, a rally up to 6.80-6.85 is likely to be seen. Any break below 4.66 would now be considered a decent negative. Probabilities favor a sideways trading range this week.


1) PACB - Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.05 on weekly stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 8.04.

2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.44 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.79.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.20.

4) QRVO - Averaged long at 52.52 (2 mentions) Stop loss now at 69.65, on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 73.87.

5) AXP - Shorted at 82.03. Stop loss is at 83.94. Stock closed on Friday at 80.69.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.80.

7) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.32.

8) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.44.

9) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 4.91. Stock closed on Friday at 6.27.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.31.

11) DD - Shorted at 72.66. Stop loss is at 73.66. Stock closed on Friday at 71.21.

12) IBM - Shorted at 152.17. Covered shorts at 153.36. Loss on the trade of $119 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) HD - Shorted at 105.46. Covered shorts tat 106.88. Loss on the trade of $142 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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