Issue #411 ![]() January 25, 2015 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Important Earnings Reports this Week. Could Help Decide Direction!
DOW Friday closing price - 17672
After 3 red weekly closes in a row, the DOW generated a green weekly close on Friday, suggesting that the selling pressure seen this year (2015) has abated. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 17840 is likely to be seen this week.
By the same token, the DOW ended up having an inside week and the inability of the bulls to take the index above the previous week's high at 17923 (in spite of the buying interest seen the entire week) does subtract from the pluses of the week. In addition, the index closed on the lows of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside.
Using the daily chart, the DOW now shows 2 successful retests of the all-time high at 18103 (at 17916 and at Thursday's high at 17840) and that gives the bears some chart ammunition to keep the index under selling pressure unless some fundamental positive (such as earnings or economic reports) comes out this week.
To the upside, the DOW will now show minor resistance at 17840, minor to decent between 17916 and 17923, minor to decent again at 17991 and strong at the all-time high at 18103. To the downside, the DOW will show minor intra-week support between 17500 and 17508, minor support again around the 17400 level and decent intra-week support between 17243 and 17264 and again decent to perhaps strong support at 17068, that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17035.
It should be mentioned that for the past 10 weeks, the DOW has been pivoting at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 17655 having traded above the line 4 times and below the line 4 times during that period of time. The time frame below the line has been an average of 6 days in a row but above the line the average had been 12 days the first 7 weeks of the 10-week period but the last time it was only 6 days and the current time has only been 4 days. The index barely closed above the line on Friday, likely meaning that until fundamental news comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday, that the traders will trade off of that line and since it is presently above the line, it does suggest that Monday will likely be a positive day. If the line is broken on Monday and the index is held below the line all day, it would be a negative sign.
The DOW was the index under the most sell pressure on Friday, as the SPX did not match the price drop and the NASDAQ actually closed in the green. Friday's dichotomy in the indexes is considered a negative as it means the selling was concentrated on the Blue Chip stocks, which normally would hold firm if the outlook was positive.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears in the DOW but with important reports due out this week, the traders are likely to "follow the lead" of how the reports come out.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4757
The NASDAQ resumed leading the indexes this past week, having rallied 2.6% over the previous week's close, while the SPX rallied 1.6% and the DOW just 1%. By the same token, the outperformance by the index was not surprising given that NFLX reported much better earnings than expected and appreciated in value more than 25% and AAPL and AMZN both rallied over 7% in value though earnings have not been reported as yet.
The NASDAQ was the only index that generated a green close this past week and having closed near the highs of the week, further upside above last week's high at 4771 is expected to be seen. With the index closing on Friday only 57 points from the 14-year high at 4814, if the earnings reports on AAPL (Tuesday PM), AMZN and GOOG (Thursday PM) come out better than expected, the probabilities will be high that the index will resume the uptrend with the all-time high at 5132 as the target.
Nonetheless, the NASDAQ will find itself totally at the mercy of earnings reports this week, especially AAPL which represents 13% of the value of the index, meaning that the charts will only serve as guidelines of failure or success for the index and not technical points that will generate action alone.
To the upside, the NASDAQ will show minor intra-week resistance at 4793 and strong between 4810 and 4814. Above that level there is no resistance until the 5000 demilitarized zone (4970-5030) is reached. Strong resistance is found at the all-time high at 5131.
To the downside, the NASDAQ will show minor support at 4724 and a bit stronger at 4674. Below that level, there is minor support at 4653 and then nothing until 4594. Decent to strong support will be found at the double low 4567/4563 and then strong and pivotal support at 4547.
With NFLX closing on the highs of the week and further upside expected on Monday, the NASDAQ is likely to continue to show strength at the beginning of the week and trade up to the 4793 level where some resistance is found. It is highly unlikely though, that the index will break that level and reach the double top at 4810/4814 until "after" AAPL's earnings report comes out on Tuesday after the close, and even then only if the report is much better than expected.
With most everything riding on those 3 earnings reports scheduled for this week, it is close to impossible at this time to give probabilities numbers on what the NASDAQ will do this week. Probabilities do favor the index getting above last week's high at 4771 but after that it will all likely depend on the earnings reports.
SPX Friday closing price - 2051
The SPX had a decent up week but did not accomplish anything of consequence, given that no resistance levels of consequence were broken. Nonetheless, the index did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2064 is expected to be seen.
By the same token, the 2064 level has taken on additional meaning in the SPX as there is now a double high at that price (using the 2064 high seen on January 8th). meaning that if the bulls are able to get above that high on Monday or Tuesday (prior to the AAPL earnings report), it could be a signal of what the traders think will happen the rest of the week.
The SPX did close in the red and on the lows of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 2050 is likely to be seen on Monday, meaning that the bulls will probably need some fundamental help (such as the AAPL report on Tuesday PM) to generate a rally above 2064 this coming week.
Most of the important earnings reports for SPX have now come out and generally speaking they were neither helpful nor harmful, suggesting the index will now need to be on the coattail of one of the other indexes to rally or decline further. Simply stated, the index is not likely to be used as the primary index for decision making.
To the upside, the SPX shows decent intra-week resistance at 2064 and if broken then at 2079. Strong resistance will be found at the all-time high at 2093. To the downside, the SPX will show minor intra-week support at 2049/2051 and then nothing until the 2013-2019 level is reached. Decent support is found between 1988 and 2000 and decent to strong, as well as pivotal support at 1972.
The probabilities favor the SPX being a "follower" this week but a break below 2049 will likely give the index a bit of a bearish bias. Nonetheless, after the earnings report for AAPL comes out, it will all be what the NASDAQ does as far as direction is concerned.
Earnings reports are likely to dominate the index market this week, with AAPL coming out on Tuesday PM and AMZN and GOOG on Thursday PM. World events, such as oil prices and Greek elections are not likely to have much impact, at least not this week.
Probabilities seem to favor the bulls slightly as earnings have not yet been as disappointing as had been expected. By the same token, the largest bulk of earnings reports are due out this week and next, and that can still change trader's mentality.
There are still seasonal tendencies that are affecting the market, such as the tendency for a correction of consequence to begin in the first quarter of the year, as well as price levels above that are still magnets, such as the all-time high in the NASDAQ, meaning that the traders are mostly "looking" at this time and not "making decisions" yet. Nonetheless, this week might end up being pivotal, depending on the news.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The indexes are likely to continue slightly higher this week but are facing levels of resistance that if not broken are likely to generate a new round of selling by the traders, especially since the market does have a seasonal tendency to start a correction in the first quarter of the year.
The probabilities do not favor the important earnings reports coming out this week (AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG) being much better than expected, suggesting that if a rally does occur that it could fail. Having the seasonal correction period on the horizon, does give the bears a slight edge, meaning that short trades should now be considered.
There are 2 mentions this week and they are both short positions. Because of the still uncertain outlook for the earnings reports, the probability rating on the trades is not as high as it would be under different conditions. Nonetheless, the desired entry points and stop loss points are well chosen based on the chart factors in play.
SALES
EDC Friday Closing Price - 25.42
EDC is a 3X Index that represents the trading action in the emerging market sector. For 41 months, EDC has been in a consistent and reliable trading range between $20 and $40 but basically in a down to sideways mode since the index was trading below the 200-week MA since it broke it to the downside in August 2011. The 200-MA was reached to the upside 4 months ago, for the first time since February 2012, and the stock reacted immediately to the downside with a drop from 36.36 to 18.88 over a period of 15 weeks, suggesting the bears are still mostly in control. The drop down to 18.88 was the fifth drop down to the $20 level over the past 41 months and it does increase the probabilities of further downside because of the multiple lows seen at that price. In addition, the successful retest of the MA line and the subsequent strong drop in price does suggest the index might be getting back into a downtrend, especially since there is a seasonal tendency for the entire market to get into a correction sometime in the first quarter of the year.
EDC closed near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 26.08 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock does show a double high at 28.05/28.14 that was generated in November and that signaled that the bulls have lost a measure of control. If that level is not broken on this rally, it will be a negative and will likely mean that the downtrend is about to resume, and as such it is the perfect area to be used as a stop loss point. As it is, the probability of a market correction starting in the next couple of weeks is decent, and if that occurs the stock is likely to break the $20 level and make this trade a winner.
To the upside, EDC shows minor resistance at 26.75 and then decent resistance between 27.93 and 28.14. Further resistance is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 28.50 that includes a decent intra-week high at 28.94, meaning that the entire 27.93 to 28.94 level is going to be extremely difficult for the bulls to break without some fundamental help.
To the downside, EDC shows some minor to perhaps decent intra-week support at 23.18, minor but likely pivotal support at 22.93, minor to perhaps decent at 20.30 and decent to perhaps strong and pivotal at the 12-month low at 18.82. Below 18.70/18.82 there is no support until 14.53 is reached. Major support, on a weekly closing basis, is found at 11.30.
The recent action seen in EDC the last 4 months has had a bearish bias and with the seasonal tendency to correct in the first quarter of the year on the horizon, a short trade is the "way to go".
Sales of EDC between 26.00 and 27.50 and using a stop loss at 29.04 and having an objective of 14.52 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
GPS Friday Closing Price - 42.20
GPS has been in a sideways trading range between $36 and $46.50 for the past 27 months that is more likely to continue sideways than to break out to the upside. In addition, between October 2005 and October 2006, the stock generated almost the same kind of trading range and ultimately it was resolved to the downside, meaning that there is a decent possibility that it will happen again this time. With the possibility of market starting a seasonal correction sometime in the next few weeks, shorting the stock on this rally seems to be the way to go.
GPS closed on Friday near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 42.59 is likely to be seen, which in turn would allow the stock to get to the desired entry point around $44 for a short position. A short position at that level would offer a decent risk/reward ratio and probability rating, as well as the potential for higher profit if the sideways trend is over.
GPS made a new 18-week weekly closing high on Friday but did end up with an inside week, suggesting that the even though the stock has been on a short-term uptrend that selling interest is being seen.
To the upside, GPS shows intra-week resistance at 44.59 and strong resistance at the double top at 46.56/46.84. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is found at 43.75 and at 46.48/46.15.
To the downside, GPS shows support between 39.28 and 40.00, which does include the 100-day MA, currently at 40.45, that held the stock up this past week. Below 39.28 there is no support of consequence until the 37.00 level is reached. Nonetheless, between 35.54 and 37.00 there are 4 layers of support that are not likely to be broken unless the indexes do get into the seasonal correction.
GPS is highly likely to get up to at least 43.25 or as high as 44.75 this coming week. Nonetheless, to get above 44.75 the stock is likely to need some help from the indexes. The company does not report earnings for another 4 weeks, so no help is expected from that area.
As mentioned above, GPS had the same type of chart scenario in 2005/2006 that ended up being resolved to the downside, at least for an additional $5 move. The 200-week MA is currently at 33.00, meaning that if the 36.00-37.00 area of support is broken, that level would be the likely objective.
Sales of GPS between 43.65 and 44.75 and using a stop loss at 45.35 and having at least a 37.00 objective will offer at least a 3.7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AKS did not follow through on the previous week's fall and close on the lows of the week, having generated an inside week and a small trading range of 35 points. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a red weekly close as well as a close near the lows of the week, still suggesting that further downside will be seen this week, below last week's low at 3.85. It does seem that the stock is building a bearish inverted shoulders formation with a downside objective of 1.65 but such a target is highly unlikely to be reached, meaning the inverted flag will likely not occur or be turned into something else. Support is found at 3.42 and it is unlikely that level will be broken at this time. It should be mentioned that from November 2012 to November 2013, the stock traded between a low of 2.76 and a high of 4.90 with 90% of the trading occurring above 3.42. It is likely the previous week's response was overdone as the stock dropped 25% in value though iron ore is only supposed to drop 10% in value. As such, after some follow through to the downside, the probabilities do favor a rally back up to the $5 demilitarized zone with 4.70-4.90 being the most probable upside objective. Weekly close support is found at 3.57, meaning that somewhere between 3.42 and 3.57 there is likely to be some buying interest. The 4.20 level has turned into resistance that if broken would likely generate enough buying to take the stock to the 4.70-4.90 level. Probabilities continue to favor the bears. AREX confirmed with a second green weekly close in a row that the 5.54 close seen 3 weeks ago was a successful retest of the 5+ year low weekly close at 5.16. By the same token, the bulls were unable to generate a close above 6.40, which was the previous 4+ year low weekly close that was broken and that caused this recent move to the downside. The inability of the bulls to close above 6.40, does suggest the stock is at an impasse as the traders await further news or direction from the oil market. Resistance is found at 7.59 (6.98 on a daily closing basis) that if broken would suggest a rally to at least 8.50/8.90, if not up to the $10 level. Support is found at 5.01 and at 4.28. If 5.01 is broken, the bears regain control. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.69 is likely to be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but this week is looking like it could be a pivotal week. ARNA generated another red weekly close after the announcement of a second stock offering on Tuesday. Uncertainty as to the exact price of the stock offering caused further selling even though it was speculated that the offering was made at $5.00. The stock closed on Friday at exactly the previous high weekly close at 4.53, meaning that the close next Friday will be pivotal in determining whether the stock is still in a downtrend or at least a sideways trend. The stock did close below the 200-day MA, currently at 4.90, the 200-week MA, currently at 5.30, and also below the previous high "daily" close at 4.70. Nonetheless, the bears will need to confirm all those breaks with further downside the entire week. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.50 is likely to be seen on Monday. Nonetheless, by Monday the offering price should be known officially and it behooves the bulls to generate new buying interest from the "get-go", starting with a green close on Monday, above 4.70 and further upside the rest of the week, as well as a close above 5.30 next Friday, or the bears will gain an edge. Any green close during the week above the 200-day MA, currently at 4.90, should generate new buying interest. ENG made a new 12-week weekly closing low on Friday and continued the attempt to close the gap at 1.59. Nonetheless, for the second week in a row, the bears were unable to generate enough selling interest to take the stock down another 6 points to close the gap. The stock did close on the lows of the week and the probabilities do favor the gap being closed this week, which would take some bullishness away from the chart but would not be sufficient to turn the stock negative. Support of consequence is found at 1.50 and if the gap is closed that level would be unlikely to get broken as the stock previously traded down to that price for a period of 2 months without the bulls being able to break the support. A rally above last week's high at 1.73 would suggest that the downside sell pressure is abating. Nonetheless, the bulls still need to generate a rally and "close" above the now decent intra-week resistance at 1.88/1.90 that does include the 200-week MA, currently at 1.87, as well as the highest weekly close for the past 7 weeks at 1.90. Probabilities still favor the bears this week. FCEL, just like AKS, failed to follow through on the previous week's spike drop and close on the lows of the week. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to accomplish anything either, having still generated another red close in the lower half of the week's trading range, though still in the 1.11 to 1.14 weekly close support level that seems to be pivotal for the stock. Volume and movement the last 2 days of the week dropped down to the lowest level seen in a year, suggesting that the selling interest has come to a standstill, and as such further movement in the stock in either direction will likely have to come from outside sources or from the earnings report that is still not due out for another 6 weeks. The 1.18 level is now considered resistance and the 1.02-1.04 level support. Probabilities slightly favor the bears because the stock is still in a short-term downtrend, but at these prices it is unlikely that the selling interest will dominate. FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-month intra-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside, above last week's high at 43.09, is likely to be seen this week. The reversal was even more meaningful given that oil prices generated a red weekly close, suggesting the stock may be detaching itself from mimicking what oil prices do. Resistance is found at 43.00, from the 200 60-minute MA, at 44.44 from the most recent intra-week high, and at 45.21, the high for the past 8 weeks. A daily and weekly close above 45.21 would suggest the downtrend is over and that a short-covering rally, likely up to at least to the $47 level or even up to the psychological resistance at $50 will occur. Intra-week support is now found between 39.88 and 40.54 (40.84 on a daily closing basis) that should now be used to institute new long positions or to average down on existing positions, using a 39.06 stop loss. Probabilities favor a rally this week up to the 44.44 level and a drop down to at least the 40.84 level. PACB made yet another new 41-month weekly closing high on Friday (closed at 7.88), having closed above last week's weekly closing high at 7.86 as well as above the high weekly close seen 6 weeks ago at 7.83. Nonetheless, the fact that stock has only been able to generate further weekly closing upside of 5 points over the past 6 weeks does suggest that the uptrend has stalled and that further positive news is needed to generate another leg up. Likely pivotal but still minor support is found at 7.36 and resistance at 8.19 and stronger at 8.77. The stock is likely to have another uneventful week with a trading range between 7.70 and 8.15. Any break above that trading range, either to the upside or downside, is likely to see some follow through. The probabilities continue to favor the bulls but it is evident that the traders are looking for some catalyst to help them decide what direction to take from this level. QRVO made a new all-time high this past week, having gone above its merger high at 71.99 seen 15 trading days ago. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above 74.34 is expected to be seen. The stock shows no resistance above as QRVO but as the previous pre-merger name of RFMD, the stock will show some resistance at the $80 level, which would be the $20 level as the previous name. The $70 demilitarized zone (69.70-70.30) will now be seen as support, perhaps even pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls. VHC generated a green weekly close on Friday, after 4 weeks of red closes. The green weekly close makes the previous week's close at 5.19 (4.66 on an intra-week basis) into a successful retest of the previous low weekly close at 4.52, that was in turn a successful retest of the 5-year low weekly close at 4.09, suggesting that the stock has now built a decent support/bottom for an attempt to get out of the 30-month downtrend. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5.55 is likely to be seen. Resistance is found at 6.12, that includes the 100-day MA, and stronger at the 4-month high at 6.80/6.85. Probabilities favor a rally to 6.12 and then a small pull back down to the 5.50 level. Support is found at 4.80 and at 4.66 that if broken would be considered a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) PACB - Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.05 on weekly stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 7.88.
2) AKS - Averaged long at 7.44 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.01.
3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.12.
4) QRVO - Averaged long at 52.52 (2 mentions) Stop loss now at 69.65, on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 73.37.
5) GIGM - Liquidated at .783. Averaged long at 1.225. Loss on the trade of $44 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.66.
7) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.54.
8) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.37.
9) AREX - Purchased at 5.52. Averaged long at 6.08. Stop loss now at 4.91. Stock closed on Friday at 6.41.
10) ARNA> - Purchased at 4.97. Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.53.
11) AMZN - Liquidated at 287.28. Purchased at 287.72. Loss on the trade of $44 per 100 shares plus commissions. Stop loss at 283.65. Stock closed on Friday at 290.74.
12) AMZN - Purchased at 288.19. Liquidated at 304.52. Profit on the trade of $1433 per 100 shares minus commissions.
13) AMZN - Shorted at 303.39. Covered shorts at 306.37. Loss on the trade of $298 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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