Issue #415
February 15, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Win This Round! Battle Not Over Yet?

DOW Friday closing price - 18019

The DOW underperformed the other indexes this past week, having rallied only 1% above the previous week's close, whereas the SPX rallied 2% and the NASDAQ rallied 3%. The underperformance has to be considered a caution sign, inasmuch as there are no reasons for the Blue Chip stocks to lag behind if this rally is a new leg of the uptrend.

The DOW did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18037 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index will be the barometer used this week to measure the strength and commitment of the buying interest seen the past 2 weeks since it is the only one with resistance levels still close-by above.

The DOW closed the week just 34 points from the all-time high weekly close and 84 points from the all-time intra-week high and having seen a 352 trading range last week and a 914 point trading range the week before, the bulls should have no problem making a new all-time intra-week and high weekly close if the rally is real and has legs. Nonetheless, if they fail to accomplish that goal and close in the red next Friday, it will be seen as a possible double top, which in turn would be an ominous sign to the future of the index for the rest of the year.

To the upside, the DOW shows daily/weekly close resistance at 18053 and intra-week resistance at the all-time high at 18103. Above that level, general resistance is likely to be found at 18300. To the downside, the DOW will now show minor but likely pivotal support at the 17700-17726 level, minor at 17603 and then nothing until 17262/17243 area is reached.

The bulls in the DOW will have their best chance to accomplish a new all-time high on Tuesday and Wednesday morning as follow through to the upside is expected to be seen starting the week and no economic reports of consequence are due out until Wednesday at 2:00 pm when the Fed gives the FOMC minutes from last month. Nonetheless, if they have not accomplished those goals by then, the odds will shift to the bears, especially since the Fed may start to favor saying something about the possibility of rising rates sooner rather than later.

Based on the DOW's 1% rally last week, if all the indexes go higher this week and the DOW is able to mimic last week's rally, it will make a new all-time high with a possible upside objective of 18199.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4893

The NASDAQ made a new 15-year high on Friday, having broken above the high at 4810 made in December. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4893 is expected to be seen this week.

The NASDAQ is now 155 points from the all-time high weekly close at 5048 and 239 points from the all-time intra-week high at 5132 and having seen a 207 point trading range 2 weeks ago and 174 last week, there is a high probability one or both of those 2 levels will be seen this week. With AAPL on a major bull-run and seemingly unstoppable (having made a new all-time high next week and closing on the highs of the week), no resistance above until the 5000 demilitarized zone is reached, and no economic reports of consequence due out until Wednesday, the bulls are highly likely to run with the index before the Fed FOMC report on Wednesday that could turn into a "bucket of cold water".

The NASDAQ totally outperformed the other indexes having gone up 3% in value this past week, compared to 1% for the DOW and 2% for the SPX. If the indexes simply mimic last week's 3%, 2%, and 1% rallies, it would mean the NASDAQ would get up to 5039, the SPX to 2137 and the DOW to 18199.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows general resistance at the 5000 demilitarized zone (4970-5030), major weekly close resistance at 5048 and major intra-week resistance at 5132. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 4860 (runaway gap) and at 4823 (breakaway gap) and minor to perhaps decent daily and weekly close support at 4806 (previous 14-year high daily/weekly close). Further minor but likely pivotal support is found at 4700/4719.

The NASDAQ bulls are on a mission and that is to test the all-time intra-week or weekly closing high and there seems to be no obstacles to that occurring this week, at least not until the FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the FOMC meeting is a possible "monkey wrench" since the probabilities now are becoming high that the Fed will start mentioning raising rates sooner rather than later because of the improving economy. As such, the probabilities strongly favor a strong run to the 5132 level at the beginning of the week.

It should be mentioned that the NASDAQ now shows a new breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap being between 4810 and 4823 and the runaway gap between 4857 and 4860 that should help the bulls push the index higher at this time. Nonetheless, the runaway gap is now likely going to be the first clue the index may have found a top since closure of that gap will likely mean closure of the breakaway gap, meaning that the bulls can ill afford to let that happen at this time.

Nonetheless, the "big key" to the downside right now is the previous 14-year high daily/weekly close at 4806. If the index closes below that level at any time now, it will be seen as a signal that the rally is over.

SPX Friday closing price - 2096

The SPX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday, closing above the previous ones at 2088/2090 (respectively). The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above 2096 is likely to be seen this week.

Based on the SPX's 2% rally last week, if that percentage is mimicked again this week it would offer a 2137 upside objective, which in turn would fulfill the 2100-2150 upside objectives mentioned by many analysts on Bloomberg TV. It should also be mentioned that in October the index also made a new all-time high 2 weeks after a sell signal was given on the weekly closing chart and if the percentage of that rally is mimicked this time around, it would offer a 2167 objective.

To the upside, the index has no resistance other than perhaps general/psychological resistance at 2100. To the downside, the SPX shows minor intra-week support at 2049 that has been acting somewhat like pivotal support for the past few months and at 2042 which was this past week's low. Further support found at the 2000 level and pivotal support at 1972.

The SPX is facing what could end up being a negative pivotal week if the Fed mentions anything on Wednesday about the possibility of rising interest rates coming sooner rather than later. Any close next Friday below 2088 would be considered a negative that could also end up being seen as a double top at 2088/2096 on the weekly closing chart. Simply stated, there is one economic event this week (the Fed minutes) that could turn the trend around.

Expect the SPX to rally higher at the beginning of the week.


In a matter of just 2 weeks, the bulls were able to turn the indexes around from a sell signal on the weekly chart (only the second in the past 4 years) to making new highs. The turnaround was surprising as the fundamental picture has not improved so much as to explain such a change of direction after 6 weeks of extreme volatility with a slight bias to the downside.

The new highs can be explained technically as the bulls have been "consistently" successful in buying all dips and generating new highs thereafter since 2008, meaning that the bears have not been able to build enough confidence in their position as to establish any kind of a downtrend, especially when earnings and economic reports have not been bad enough to support their side.

Nonetheless, it can be said that the up-trend the past few years has been mostly Fed driven by super low interest rates, but now that all signs seem to point to interest rates rising at some point this year, the end result might be different, and it could be different starting this week with the FOMC minutes that come out on Wednesday. There is a growing belief that a change of language will be seen in this report for the first time in years and if that does occur, it could put a stop to this rally, especially since the rally has been mostly technical rather than fundamental.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

In looking at over 100 stocks as well as indexes I strongly believe that a top to this uptrend is close at hand. By the same token, based on the action seen last week, it is evident that "close at hand" could still mean a bit more upside being seen first.

I was going to have a full complement of mentions this week (4) but as I looked at a lot of charts I did see decent some of the stocks still having some possible upside left and without levels "yet" where an intelligent stop loss can be used. The stocks will offer the most profit as they are evidently way overbought and overdone in price, but until some selling interest is seen, they cannot yet be shorted.

As such, I only have 2 mentions this week that I do feel have enough chart reasons "now" to be mentioned as shorts. Nonetheless, within a week or two though, I will have quite a few more mentions as the charts do suggest that the next "big" move will be to the downside.

SALES

OSK Friday Closing Price - 46.70

OSK has been in a downtrend since March of last year, having rallied up to 60.45 but failing to get up to the all-time high weekly close resistance area between 62.50 and 65.00. The downtrend was then confirmed as valid when the stock broke below a previous intra-week low of consequence from July 2006 at 42.64 with a drop down to 39.72. Further confirmation of the downtrend was given 6 weeks ago when another sell signal was generated when the stock fell to 38.64.

OSK has been on a short-covering rally the past 5 weeks (likely because of the rally in the indexes) but is reaching levels of resistance that are unlikely to get broken unless the downtrend is over and the stock is ready to move substantially higher (unlikely both chart-wise and fundamentally).

To the upside, OSK shows minor intra-week resistance at 48.45, a bit stronger at 48.93, and a bit stronger again at 49.50. Further resistance is found at 50.27 that includes the psychological resistance found at the $50 demilitarized zone but also the 50-week MA, currently at 50.00, that was broken to the downside in July of last year and is unlikely to get broken to the upside unless the downtrend is over.

To the downside, OSK shows very minor support at 45.36 and again at 44.33 and then nothing until the $40 demilitarized zone is reached. Further support is found at the recent 38.64 low and then nothing until the 200-week MA, currently at 36.95 is reached. Further support is found at 35.88 and at the 2-year low at 33.88.

OSK has shown consistent weakness over the past 11 months, in spite of the strong uptrend seen in the index market during that period of time, having broken previous levels of support consistently and failing to negate any of the breaks on the rallies. In addition, the $50 level has proven itself to be a pivot point on several occasions during the past 10 years, meaning that the bears will feel comfortable in shorting the stock using that level as a stop loss point.

With the downtrend in OSK being clearly defined, the probabilities suggest that unless there is a bullish breakout above the $50 level that the stock will drop down to the 200-week MA at $37 before any consideration may be given to turning the trend around. As such, the $37 level is the highly viable objective of this trade.

OSK closed near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 47.21 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the upside objective is likely to be the 200-day MA, currently at 48.40, that is unlikely to get broken on a daily closing basis, especially since there is quite a bit of resistance found between 48.93 and 49.50.

Sales of OSK between 48.29 and 48.92 and using a stop loss at 50.81 and having an objective of 37.00 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

HAL Friday Closing Price - 44.19

HAL has been on a strong downtrend this year, having gotten up to an all-time high at 74.33 in July of last year and then plummeting close to 50% in value to a low of 37.21 seen just 3 weeks ago. The company is the second largest provider of oilfield services in the world and the drop in the price of oil as well as the recent merger with Baker-Hughes has been the main culprit of the fall in price.

HAL broke the 200-week MA, currently at 44.95, 13-weeks ago and even though the stock has been able to generate a bit of a rally over the past 5 weeks, the line still remains unbroken to the upside, suggesting the stock remains in a mid-term downtrend. From a fundamental point of view, it has been said that oil prices are to continue lower and even break below the recent low at $43.50 (perhaps even down to $20 as some analysts have predicted) and that suggests that it will be difficult for the bulls to stage any kind of meaningful rally (other than a short-covering one) after such a precipitous fall. It should also be mentioned that the merger with Baker Hughes also provides many short-term reasons for lower prices as such a merger is not immediately positive for the company.

To the upside, HAL shows minor intra-week resistance between 45.25 and 45.75 that includes 2 previous low weekly closes of some importance from April 2008 and June 2011 and one previous high weekly close from May 2013. In addition, the 200-week MA, currently at 44.95, must also be included in that resistance area since that line does represent long term trend and the stock has been trading below the line for the past 12 weeks.

To the downside, HAL shows minor intra-week support between 36.77 and the recent low at 37.21. Below that level though, there is no support of consequence until the $30 level is reached.

It is evident that the recent 5-week rally in HAL has been mostly short-covering after such a dramatic fall. Retesting the 200-week MA was technically a high probability and it is likely such a retest will occur this week. Nonetheless, the stock shows a runaway gap to the downside between 47.12 and 44.37 that is unlikely to be closed, though the bulls might be successful in getting "into" the gap this week due to the fact the stock and the indexes are due to rally this week as well. Such a rally is likely to be seen by the traders as a new opportunity to short the stock.

Sales of HAL between 44.90 and 45.25 and using a stop loss at 45.85 and having a downside objective of 30.00 will offer a 15-1 risk/reward ratio. The stop loss should be mental as the resistance at 45.75 is minor but even using a stop loss at 47.10 (which would mean the runaway gap would get closed), would still offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if it wasn't for the fact the stock has already dropped a lot and this is a good solid company, meaning that if oil prices do recover, the trade will likely be a loss.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated another green weekly close and got closer to the upside objective of $10 with a high this past week at 9.15. Some selling was seen as the stock got above the $9 level, having sold off $1.32 from the highs before finding new buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls still managed to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above 9.15 will be seen this week. The 200 10-minute MA, currently at 8.00 is now seen as decent intra-day support and 7.00 as intra-week support. Probabilities still favor the bulls.

ARNA had a mostly uneventful week but did generate a green weekly close as well as a close slightly above a minor weekly close resistance at 4.53. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4.61 is expected to be seen this week with 4.70-4.90 as the objective for the week. Nonetheless, the bulls are facing a tough task ahead as there is a mountain of resistance at the $5 demilitarized zone (4.70-5.30), with minor but likely short-term pivotal daily close resistance at 4.70, the 200-day MA, currently at 4.75, decent intra-week resistance at 4.90, the 50-week MA at 5.00 and likely the most important resistance being the 200-week MA, currently at 5.35. As such, the probabilities favor the bulls for some additional upside over the next couple of weeks but they will likely need to get some positive fundamental information to get above all the chart resistance mentioned, especially the 200-week MA that would be a strong determinant of whether the long-term trend has begun to turn up again. Pivotal support is now found at 4.13.

AXP received bad news (non-renewal of the exclusive Costco contract) and generated a second sell signal on the weekly closing chart when it closed below the first sell signal weekly close at 80.69. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 77.72 is expected to be seen this week. There is no support below until very minor support is found at 73.47. Further and a bit stronger support is found between 71.47 and 72.08 that would likely generate a bounce back up to the 78.60/78.70 that is now going the be resistance. Downside objective of the recent downtrend is likely to become the 200-day MA, currently at 69.15, but that line is moving up and if a bounce does occur at the 73.47-71.47 level, the probabilities will favor the line getting up to somewhere around the $70 in a few weeks, suggesting that level will be the bottom of this downtrend.

ENG bulls were unable to generate a green weekly close this past week, having generated a red weekly close and making once again the 2.00 level (last week's close) into a pivotal resistance area. Nonetheless, the bears were not successful either in getting their agenda done, having been unable to get below the previous week's low (was an inside week) and closing above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.83, suggesting that at this time and until some news comes out that the stock will be trading sideways without direction. Minor to decent support is found at 1.72 and decent at 1.65.

FCEL generated another green weekly close (third in a row) but the bulls were unable to generate enough buying interest to get and close above the 50-day and 200-week MA's, both currently at 1.43, having gone up to 1.40 and then closing out the week at the midpoint of the trading range. The stock is still showing an open gap between 1.27 and 1.30 that is likely to be closed since there hasn't been any news to make the gap viable. Minor but possibly intra-day pivotal support is found at 1.27 (200 60-minute MA) and then nothing until 1.14-1.16. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls since the chart suggests a bottom to the downtrend may now be in place. Nonetheless, the 1.43-1.45 level needs to be broken in order for the bulls to gain a decisive, though short-term edge.

FSLR continued its recovery, having generated follow through to the upside, another green weekly close, and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 50.30 will be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is nearing a level of resistance of consequence with the 200-week MA, currently at 51.05, the runaway gap between 50.80 and 50.25 that still has not been closed, and the 100-day MA, currently at 49.90. The key is the runaway gap up at 50.80 being closed because if that gap is closed the breakaway gap between 55.80 and 53.48 is likely to be closed and a close above the 200-week MA, would suggest the downtrend is over and a mid-term uptrend is in place. Intra-day support of some consequence is found between 47.00 and 47.64 and pivotal intra-week support is found at 45.94. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

KMX generated a new all-time high weekly close at 67.68, above the previous one seen the third week of December at 67.61. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 67.73 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, the stock still has resistance at 68.70 that will need to be broken in order for the bulls to say they are in control. Probabilities favor the bulls making a new high with the $70 demilitarized as the objective. By the same token, like with the indexes, the stock could be seeing the last rally this year, if and when the indexes do find their tops for the year as stated up above. Minor support is found at 64.66, at 63.06, and 61.83, and pivotal and decent support at 60.83. This stock is likely to be tied in totally to what the index market does.

ORCL generated another green weekly close as well as a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 44.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the sell signal given 3 weeks ago has not yet been negated, suggesting the rally is mostly short-covering in association with the rally in the indexes. Intra-week resistance is found at 45.33 but daily close resistance is found at 44.19. Minor support is found at 43.08, at 42.25 and decent and likely pivotal at 41.56, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 41.20. Probabilities are evenly split for this week but unless the bulls can get above 45.33, longer term probabilities favor the bears.

PACB did not follow through to the downside after the strong down week it had the previous week, suggesting the bears ran out of ammunition. The stock generated an inside week and a green close, as well as a close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the traders are waiting to see what happens this week before committing to a direction. The probabilities still favor the bulls since no sell signal has been given and the mid-term trend is still up. Nonetheless, the bulls must now re-establish control by generating a weekly close above 7.19 and follow that up with a rally above the now resistance level at 8.19 to re-establish the mid-term uptrend. Support is found at 6.50 and more pivotal at the 6.18-6.25 level. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal resistance is found at 7.30 and then minor again at 7.60.

QRVO generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 65.89 into a double bottom using the close the second week of January at 65.81. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 70.27 is likely to be seen, which in turn would also confirm a double bottom on the intra-week chart at 63.02/63.17. Likely pivotal intra-day resistance is found at 71.99 that if broken would suggest resumption of the uptrend and an $80 objective. Support is also now likely to be pivotal between 66.50 and 67.00. Probabilities once again favor the bulls.

VHC generated another minor but possibly pivotal reversal, having made a new 3-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.60 will be seen this week. In addition, the bulls were finally able to close above the 100-day MA, currently at 5.25, which was a line that held them back for the past 2 weeks and that had not been broken for the past 6-months. Probabilities favor further upside this week. Minor intra-day resistance is found at 5.75 and then nothing until the 6.12-6.16 level. A break above 6.16 would be a strong positive. A break above 6.85 would likely stimulate movement up to the $10 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.


1) PACB - Averaged long at 6.535 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.96.

2) AXP - Shorted at 84.02. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 78.08.

3) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.31.

4) QRVO - Averaged long at 52.52 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 70.03.

5) KMX - Shorted at 64.70. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.68.

6) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.84.

7) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.84.

8) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.53.

9) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.71. Stock closed on Friday at 8.15.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.55.

11) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.93.

12) IR - Shorted at 66.41. Stopped out at 67.75. Loss on the trade of $134 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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