I continue to strongly believe that a top to this uptrend is close at hand. By the same token, based on the action seen last week, it is evident that "close at hand" could still mean a bit more upside being seen first.

I have only 1 new mention this week (apart from the 2 made last week that are still viable) but the new mention (AMZN) does require quite of bit of upside before it reaches its desired entry point. Nonetheless, I do believe the market will probably stay up at these levels for another 1-3 weeks as a new top is built, meaning there is no rush to take on a lot of short positions yet.

SALES

OSK Friday Closing Price - 47.09

OSK has been in a downtrend since March of last year, having rallied up to 60.45 but failing to get up to the all-time high weekly close resistance area between 62.50 and 65.00. The downtrend was then confirmed as valid when the stock broke below a previous intra-week low of consequence from July 2006 at 42.64 with a drop down to 39.72. Further confirmation of the downtrend was given 6 weeks ago when another sell signal was generated when the stock fell to 38.64.

OSK has been on a short-covering rally the past 6 weeks (likely because of the rally in the indexes) but is reaching levels of resistance that are unlikely to get broken unless the downtrend is over and the stock is ready to move substantially higher (unlikely both chart-wise and fundamentally).

To the upside, OSK shows minor intra-week resistance at 48.45, a bit stronger at 48.93, and a bit stronger again at 49.50. Further resistance is found at 50.27 that includes the psychological resistance found at the $50 demilitarized zone but also the 50-week MA, currently at 50.00, that was broken to the downside in July of last year and is unlikely to get broken to the upside unless the downtrend is over.

To the downside, OSK shows very minor support at 45.36 and again at 44.33 and then nothing until the $40 demilitarized zone is reached. Further support is found at the recent 38.64 low and then nothing until the 200-week MA, currently at 36.95 is reached. Further support is found at 35.88 and at the 2-year low at 33.88.

OSK has shown consistent weakness over the past 11 months, in spite of the strong uptrend seen in the index market during that period of time, having broken previous levels of support consistently and failing to negate any of the breaks on the rallies. In addition, the $50 level has proven itself to be a pivot point on several occasions during the past 10 years, meaning that the bears will feel comfortable in shorting the stock using that level as a stop loss point.

With the downtrend in OSK being clearly defined, the probabilities suggest that unless there is a bullish breakout above the $50 level that the stock will drop down to the 200-week MA at $37 before any consideration may be given to turning the trend around. As such, the $37 level is the highly viable objective of this trade.

OSK closed near the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 47.52 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the upside objective is likely to be the 200-day MA, currently at 48.25, that is unlikely to get broken on a daily closing basis, especially since there is quite a bit of resistance found between 48.93 and 49.50.

Sales of OSK between 48.24 and 48.92 and using a stop loss at 50.81 and having an objective of 37.00 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

HAL Friday Closing Price - 44.19

HAL has been on a strong downtrend this year, having gotten up to an all-time high at 74.33 in July of last year and then plummeting close to 50% in value to a low of 37.21 seen just 3 weeks ago. The company is the second largest provider of oilfield services in the world and the drop in the price of oil as well as the recent merger with Baker-Hughes has been the main culprit of the fall in price.

HAL broke the 200-week MA, currently at 44.95, 13-weeks ago and even though the stock has been able to generate a bit of a rally over the past 5 weeks, the line still remains unbroken to the upside, suggesting the stock remains in a mid-term downtrend. From a fundamental point of view, it has been said that oil prices are to continue lower and even break below the recent low at $43.50 (perhaps even down to $20 as some analysts have predicted) and that suggests that it will be difficult for the bulls to stage any kind of meaningful rally (other than a short-covering one) after such a precipitous fall. It should also be mentioned that the merger with Baker Hughes also provides many short-term reasons for lower prices as such a merger is not immediately positive for the company.

To the upside, HAL shows minor intra-week resistance between 45.25 and 45.75 that includes 2 previous low weekly closes of some importance from April 2008 and June 2011 and one previous high weekly close from May 2013. In addition, the 200-week MA, currently at 44.95, must also be included in that resistance area since that line does represent long term trend and the stock has been trading below the line for the past 12 weeks.

To the downside, HAL shows minor intra-week support between 36.77 and the recent low at 37.21. Below that level though, there is no support of consequence until the $30 level is reached.

It is evident that the recent 6-week rally in HAL has been mostly short-covering after such a dramatic fall. Retesting the 200-week MA was technically a high probability and it did happen this week with the 44.95 high. The stock generated a reversal week, having gone up to that level, above the previous week's high, and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.08, will be seen this week.

Having had a reversal week and having gotten up to the 200-week MA, does suggest the 44.95 high seen this past week might be the high for this short-covering rally. HAL did reach the bottom of the desired entry area and now will have to be shorted at a lower price.

Sales of HAL between 44.16 and 44.34 and using a stop loss at 45.85 and having a downside objective of 30.00 will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio. The stop loss should be mental as the resistance at 45.75 is minor but even using a stop loss at 47.10 (which would mean the runaway gap would get closed), would still offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if it wasn't for the fact the stock has already dropped a lot and this is a good solid company, meaning that if oil prices do recover, the trade will likely be a loss.

AMZN Friday Closing Price - 483.66

AMZN made a new 55-week high this past week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above 383.70 will be seen this week. The stock is likely to follow suit with the NASDAQ and test its all time high at 408.06 since there is now no resistance above until the $400 level is reached.

Nonetheless, AMZN chart suggests the stock is not likely to make a new all-time high because it has already rallied over 26% in value over the past 6 weeks, is now in a strongly overbought condition, the mother index is likely to find strong resistance close-by above, and is still showing a triple bottom around the $284/$285 level. Simply stated, the chart suggests the stock might be in a big sideways trading range between $284 and $408.

To the upside, AMZN shows very minor intra-week resistance at 399.00, minor at 404.72 and decent to perhaps strong between 406.98 and 408.06. On a weekly closing basis, the same resistances mentioned above are found at 393.62, at 402.20 and at 399.61. To the downside, intra-week support is found at 372.67, at 367.20 and at 358.23. Further and likely pivotal support is found at the top of the recent gap area 340.74 which does include several previous intra-week highs at the $340 demilitarized zone. Further support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 322.60 that if broken on a daily closing basis, would suggest the $284 level would be visited.

AMZN is highly likely to get up to at least the $400 level, if not test the all-time high at 408.06, over the next week or two and as such, a long position can be considered around the 382.50 level using a stop loss at 372.57, which in turn would offer a 2.5-1 risk/reward ratio but a high probability rating of about 4 (on a scale of 1-5). Nonetheless, in my opinion, the better trade would be to wait for the upside objective to be reached, which should be in conjunction with the NASDAQ reaching its all-time high, which in turn would offer a longer term trade with a much better risk/reward ratio though with a slightly lower probabiity rating.

Sales of AMZN between 405.00 and 408.00 and using a stop loss at 410.35 and having an objective of at least 340.00 will offer a 12-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).