Issue #420
March 22, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Fed Statement Generates Rally! New Highs to be Made?

DOW Friday closing price - 18127

The DOW generated a 520 point turnaround from a 3 week correction after the Fed announcement on Wednesday. The index broke through 2 previous weekly close resistance levels at 17958 and 18053 to close just 13 points below the all-time high weekly close at 18140, meaning that if the buying interest continues this coming week that a new all-time weekly closing high will be made next Friday.

The DOW did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18197 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, with the NASDAQ having broken above its previous high, it has to be a concern to the bulls that the same thing did not happen to the DOW. As such, the additional 161 points needed above Friday's close to make a new all-time intra-week high is not likely to be easy to achieve without additional fundamental help.

To the upside, the DOW shows minor daily close resistance at 18224 and strong at 18288. On the weekly chart, strong weekly close resistance is found at 18140. General resistance is found at 18300. To the downside, general but likely minor to decent daily and weekly close support will be found at the 18000 demilitarized zone. Below that and on a weekly closing basis, decent support is found at 17749, and on a daily closing basis at 17636. General support will be found at the 17700 level.

The volatility being seen over the past 8 weeks in the DOW favors the bears but the momentum generated last week after the Fed announcement will give the bulls the edge this week. As such, the big question is whether the bulls will be successful in following through and rallying an additional 161+ points above Friday's high or not. Any failure to make a new high this week will likely bring back the selling interest.

Friday's low in the DOW at 17961 is now likely to be pivotal support as a break of that level will not only stop the momentum but also be seen as a break of support of the now once again important bottom of the 18000 demilitarized zone, something that should not occur at this time.

It is important to note that the NASDAQ still shows major weekly close resistance 22 points above and major intra-week resistance 106 points above, suggesting that the bulls in the DOW will have problems achieving the new all-time high if the NASDAQ bulls are not successful.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5026

The NASDAQ turned around and generated a 4% rally from the week's lows (after the Fed announcement) to close on a new 15-year intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5042 is likely to be seen this week.

The NASDAQ closed on Friday just 22 points from the all-time weekly closing high at 5048 and just 106 points from the all-time intra-week high at 5132, meaning both of those levels are likely to be visited and tested this coming week.

The NASDAQ has once again been the leader to the upside over the past few weeks, likely because the traders have targeted the all-time high as a chart objective to be reached (especially since the other 2 indexes already broke those levels last year). Nonetheless, having lost AAPL to the DOW this past week and GOOG, NFLX, PCLN, and AMZN not showing particularly bullish chart formations, the index is likely to have a tough time making new all-time highs. Such a high is always considered a major obstacle and one that often will receive "automatic" selling interest unless the fundamental catalyst for the rally is major. The news that caused the rally this past week is not considered particularly bullish, at least not for the long term, meaning that the bulls are not likely to get the support they need to make a new all-time high, at least not the first time around.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows major daily and weekly close resistance at 5048. On an intra-week basis, major resistance is found at 5132. To the downside, there is minor daily close support at 5008 and minor to perhaps decent weekly close support at 4963. On an intra-week basis, there is minor support at 4938, minor again at 4907/4918 and then nothing until the low seen 2 weeks ago at 4846.

With no negatives likely to come out over the weekend, the NASDAQ is likely to go above Friday's high at 5042 this week and test the 5048 level on at least a daily closing basis. Tests of the all-time intra-week high at 5132 level might also be seen but given that the 5048 level is "both" the all-time daily and weekly closing highs, does suggest that selling of consequence will be seen at that price and that getting above that level will be difficult.

The NASDAQ does show a gap generated on Friday between 5000 and 5020 that is not likely to remain open. If the gap is closed first, the bulls will have a better chance of taking the index higher than if the 5048 level is seen first as that gap will be a magnet throughout the week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2108

The SPX also reversed the recent downtrend correction and rallied 3.3% to close only 2 points below the all-time weekly closing high at 2110 and 9 points below the all-time daily closing high at 2117. The index did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2113 is likely to be seen.

Nonetheless, just like with the DOW, the SPX bulls failed to get above the previous high at 2119, meaning that the spike rally this past week still has not accomplished regenerating the uptrend and may still fail.

To the upside, the SPX shows major intra-week resistance at 2119 that is shown on the daily closing high at 2117 and on the weekly closing chart at 2110. To the downside, the index now shows minor but likely pivotal intra-week support between 2085 and 2090. Additional but minor support is found at 2067 and at 2061 and then nothing until decent support at the low seen 2 weeks ago at 2036.

The SPX continues to be the pivot index, meaning that a new all-time high will likely give the bulls in the NASDAQ help in breaking its all-time high but if the index fails to make a new high, it will give the bears the added strength they need to resume the uptrend.


The Fed once again turned a negative into a positive, having taken the word "patience" out of the monthly statement (for the first time in years after most of their economic objectives have been accomplished) and then turning it into a short-term positive having stated that they will not be "impatient" about raising interest rates. It is evident the Fed continues to do everything in its power to prevent a sell-off in the market that could bring about some damaging results.

By the same token, the change in their language does suggest that any economic reports that follow may have the exact opposite effect to the report, meaning that positive reports will now likely mean interest rates will go up sooner (thus selling will ensue), while negative reports will likely mean the opposite (further upside seen). It does suggest the traders will now be even more confused than ever and that volatility will remain high.

The market is facing this week the last bastion of long-term resistance with the NASDAQ reaching levels seen during the Dot.com era when the index quadrupled in value in just 17 months, reaching a level that was thought to be unreachable just a few years ago. A successful break of that area will likely generate a momentum run that could bring about much higher levels of price in all indexes. One analyst predicted such a run could bring about 2600 in the SPX this year.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The turnaround to the upside seen this past week, off of the Fed announcement, does open the door for the indexes renewing the uptrend and any further upside above the previous highs in the indexes would suggest a new frenzy of buying could occur. By the same token, there are quite a few chart and fundamental reasons to think that may not occur, meaning this coming week is a huge question mark.

Short positions continue to offer the most attractive risk/reward ratios but due to the turnaround, the probability ratings on those trades are extremely low, meaning that new short positions this week are no better than a flip of a coin, and perhaps even lower than that.

I did find one stock that has the kind of chart situation that offers a good possibility of upside even if the indexes do not go higher but substantial upside if they do. In addition, the chart offers a clear level of support close-by that offers a good risk/reward ratio and a decent probability rating.

PURCHASES

BWA Friday Closing Price - 60.46

BWA manufactures and sells engineered automotive systems and components primarily for powertrain applications worldwide. The company started trading in 2001 at $5 and over the past 14 years has been on a strong uptrend, having reached an all-time high just 9 months ago at 67.49. During this period of time, the stock has only had 3 corrections of consequence and more importantly over the past 6 years, none of the corrections went below a previous low of consequence, suggesting the long-term uptrend continues.

BWA reached a high of 67.49 in July of last year and through January of this year the stock was in a corrective phase that took the stock down 28% to a low of 48.40 seen in January. Nonetheless, 6 weeks ago the stock got above a previous high of consequence at 58.89 that had been in existence for close to 4 months and in doing so, generated a new buy signal suggesting the stock is ready to resume the long-term uptrend.

BWA is also now showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 8-week rally from 48.40 to 63.30 and the flag being the trading range the last 2 weeks down to 58.33 that was not only a previous intra-week low of some consequence from May of last year but also a successful retest of the recent breakout level on the weekly closing chart at 58.22.

To the upside, BWA shows intra-week resistance between 63.30 and 64.03, again at 66.52 and strong at the all-time high at 67.49. To the downside, the stock shows decent and likely pivotal support at 58.22/58.24 and then nothing of consequence until 51.28.

BWA seems to be in the process of renewing the long-term uptrend after a major correction and since the trend has been up since the stock started trading (without any correction below a previous low for the past 6 years) it does suggest the stock will make a new high even if the indexes do not continue higher, but certainly if they do.

In addition, the bullish flag does not only suggest immediate upside is to be seen but also offers a decent level of support where the risk is limited and the profit potential high.

Purchases of BWA between 60.00 and 60.40 and using a stop loss at 58.12 and having a minimum objective of 67.49 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, the probability of a new high being made does exist, which in turn would increase the risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX continued to trade sideways between 6.09 and 7.13 (now for the last 9 trading days) without giving any clue as to the direction likely to be taken. The stock did make a new 6-week low at 6.09 (below the previous low at 6.17, but did generate a positive reversal on that day, suggesting the bears may have run out of ammunition. Nonetheless, the bulls were also unable to get anything done, meaning that the probabilities favor more of the same. A rally above 7.27 or a drop below 6.09 would now be indicative of some short-term direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week since the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range. A weekly close below 6.40 would give the bears a slight edge and a weekly close below 5.54 would be a negative. A green weekly close next Friday would tilt the table toward the bulls.

ARNA made a new 7-week high above the previous high at 4.97 but the bulls were unable to hold the gains and the stock reversed to close in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.68 will be seen. Support is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 4.55, that is not likely to get broken, at least not on a daily closing basis. Resistance is once again found at 4.97. Probabilities favor further sideways action but with a slight upward bias.

AXP generated a new 6-week high and in the process gave a small buy signal having closed on Friday above the most recent previous high weekly close at 81.59. Nonetheless, the stock barely closed above a previous low weekly close of some consequence at 82.58, meaning that if the stock closes in the red next Friday, all the bulls will have accomplished is a retest of the breakdown level. Decent intra-week resistance is found at 83.47 that if broken would suggest closure of the gap up at 85.32. Weekly close resistance is found at 85.01 that if broken would suggest the recent downtrend is over. Nonetheless, the stop loss should remain at 83.57 as a break of that level would suggest the stock will move up at least another $1.50 to the upside and give the bulls a chance to accomplish more. Support is now at 80.27 that if broken would "deflate the balloon somewhat".

COF bulls were able to negate the recent selling pressure, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 80.39. Nonetheless, the strong weekly close resistance remains up between 83.20 that would need to be broken to negate the recent downtrend that is still in effect. Intra-week support is now minor to perhaps decent at 77.70 and indicative weekly close support is found at 76.43.The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and the probabilities favor the bears getting below last week's low at 80.51 to test what is now considered minor psychological support at the $80 level. By the same token, chart is showing a bullish flag formation with the bottom of the flag at last week's low at 80.53, meaning that if the bulls can hold the stock above that level and get above last week's high at 81.91, an objective of 84.75 would be given. Based on the flag formation and the strength in the indexes, probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, any drop below 80.00 would now negate the bullish flag formation.

ENG continues to trade sideways without any direction. Weekly close support is at 1.66 and weekly close resistance is at 2.00. The chart does not show any clear direction and the probabilities favor the stock continuing to trade sideways.

FCEL generated a green weekly close, putting a temporary stop to the selling pressure seen after the stock tested the 200-week MA successfully (the previous week). Daily close support is now found at 1.22 and daily close resistance is found at 1.34 and a bit stronger at 1.41. Stock is likely to continue to trade sideways this week (likely between 1.24 and 1.38) but based on the fact the earnings report showed that the company continues to improve the bottom line (though still in the red), the bulls seem to have a very slight edge.

FSLR generated a second red close week but it was minor as the stock only closed 34 points below the previous week's close. The stock has now been 4 weeks above the 50-week MA, currently at 58.60, suggesting the strength seen the past 9 weeks with the rally from 39.18 to 62.27 continues. There is still a decent possibility of the stock dropping down to the 50-week MA, or even intra-week to the 57.70 level where some minor to decent intra-week support is found. Nonetheless, a rally above 62.27 would negate all of that and likely push the stock up to the 65.99 level that is the next upside objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

GS made a new 10-week high and did close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 193.92 will be seen this week. Resistance is decent at 196.75 and strong at 198.08. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong and likely indicative at 195.45, where a double top presently exists. Probabilities favor the stock moving up to 195.00 where the bulls will need to generate new buying for the stock to head higher. It is likely the stock will need help from the indexes to accomplish anything more. Support is now likely pivotal at 188.80. The chart suggests the stock may get into a trading range between $184 and $195 for the next couple of weeks before any major decision is made.

KMX generated a strong up week as well as a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 66.69 will be seen this week. The gap up at 66.95 is highly likely to be closed this week but daily close resistance between 67.11 and 67.85 is likely to stop the advance. Weekly close resistance is found at 67.61 and strong at 68.13. The stock left an open gap below between 63.42 and 63.73 that is likely to act as a magnet if the bulls are unable to generate a new all-time high above the double top at 68.71/68.41. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $67 and $63 for the next couple of weeks before any trend direction is found.

ORCL generated a strong spike up week after the stock found support the previous week at the 50.week MA, currently at 41.30. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 44.93 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, intra-week resistance is found 45.33 that if not broken would suggest the bears maintain a slight edge. The stock does show a bullish flag chart formation with the flagpole being the rally from 41.26 (where the 200-day MA is currently at) to 44.93 and the flag being the trading range the last 2 days of the week down to 44.00. A break above the top of the flag at 44.93 would give an objective of 47.67 which would be a new all-time high. The stock did close near the highs of the week and the probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, the stock has an open gap between 42.47 and 42.74 that will act as a magnet if any weakness/failure is seen. Probabilities favor the bulls and a break above 45.33 would be a strong reason to cover the shorts.

OSK generated a green weekly close but it has to be considered weak as the bulls accomplished little in spite of the big rally in the indexes. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 48.13 is likely to be seen. Stock is still showing an open gap up at 48.67 that is likely to be closed this week, which in turn would remove some ammunition from the arsenal of the bears. Resistance is still found at 48.93, stronger at 49.40-49.50 and again at 50.27 and as long as one or more of those resistance level remain, the chart will still slightly favor the bears. Indicative support is found at 45.83 and likely indicative resistance at 48.93, which includes the 50-week MA that is important on a weekly closing basis. Nonetheless, until the bulls are able to generate a weekly close above 50.30, the chart supports shorting the stock.

TOL had a strong up week and got up within 26 points of the 9-year high at 39.95. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above 39.69 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the $40 level has been a brick wall for close to 10 years and the bulls will need to get some strong stimulus from the index market to break that level. Probabilities do favor the stock getting up to somewhere between 39.95 and perhaps the top of the $40 demilitarized zone at 40.30 but if the bulls are unable to break above the level, especially on a weekly closing basis, the bears will gain some strength. Indicative support is at 36.62. The probabilities favor the stock trading between $38 and $40 this week.

VHC generated the third red weekly close in a row but the bulls continued to keep the stock from closing below the weekly close breakout at 5.87. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.05 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, support will be found at the 6.00 level, give or take 5-15 points on either side and as bulls keep the stock closing around the 6.17 level on a daily closing basis, they will keep the chances of higher prices alive.


1) AXP - Averaged short at 83.65 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 83.57. Stock closed on Friday at 82.70.

2) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.30.

3) KMX - Averaged short at 66.45. Stop loss now at 68.81. Stock closed on Friday at 66.55.

4) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.80.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 60.26.

6) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.95. Stock closed on Friday at 6.14.

7) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.71. Stock closed on Friday at 6.48.

8) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.80.

9) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. Stop loss now at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 44.41.

10) OSK - Averaged short at 47.66 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 50.81. Stock closed on Friday at 47.88.

11) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45. Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 38.70.

12) COF - Shorted at 79.32. Stop loss at 84.06. Stock closed on Friday at 81.13.

13) GS - Shorted at 191.85 Averaged short at 189.625 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 193.13.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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