Issue #422
April 5, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Idled, Waiting for Jobs Report!

DOW Friday closing price - 17763

The DOW ended up having an uneventful inside week (higher lows and lower highs), as well as an uneventful green weekly close just 51 points above the previous week's close. The uneventful non-indicative weekly close probably occurred because the traders were unlikely to make decisions until after the Jobs report came out on Friday, a day the market was closed for Easter. By the same token, the index did close in the lower half of the week's trading range (in spite of the green weekly close), suggesting the traders were leaning on the sell side and that further downside below last week's low at 17585 will be seen unless the Jobs report came out better than expected.

The DOW bulls were unable to negate convincingly the sell signal given on the weekly chart the previous week, having closed only 14 points above the low weekly close support at 11749 that generated the sell signal when it was broken. In addition, the index now shows 2 successful retests of the all-time intra-week high at 18288, having rallied up to 18008 on Monday and failing to go above that level the rest of the week.

The Jobs Report came out on Friday and it was substantially lower than expected, causing the DOW to trade as much as 180 points lower half an hour after the report came out, suggesting that the index will open on Monday at or below the recently established levels of support at 11579/11585. With the index now showing a "fulfilled" topping out pattern, any break of those supports would likely be indicative of a new correction having started.

To the upside, the DOW shows minor intra-week resistance at 17840, again at 17916 and now decent between 17991 and 18008. Above that level, decent resistance is found at 18103 and at 18203 and strong at the all-time high of 18288. To the downside, decent intra-week support is found between 17579 and 17620. Below that level there is no support until minor to perhaps decent intra-week support is found at 17262, which includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17340. Strong support is found between 17037 and 17069.

With the negative reaction to the Jobs report seen on Friday morning, the DOW is likely to open lower on Monday and break the support found at 17579, suggesting the 50-week and 200-day MA, currently at 17260 and 17340 respectively, will at least be visited this coming week. Both of those lines have held up strongly since December 2011, having been broken only twice during the past 3 years and then only for a very short period of time, with the last time being October of last year.

It does need to be mentioned that the DOW did generate a negative reversal in March, having made a new all-time high in February at 18288 and then closing in the red. The reversal strongly suggests further downside below last month's low at 17579 will be seen this month and making the low for the past 5 months at 17037 a target as well as an important pivot point support. A break of that support would suggest the 16300 level would be the next target.

The probabilities now suggest the DOW will be under sell pressure this coming week and that at the very least the MA lines mentioned above will be tested.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 4886

The NASDAQ generated a reversal month, having made a new 15-year high and then closing in the red. The bulls attempted to prevent the negative reversal from occurring, having rallied the index on Monday up to 4948 (just 15 points below the previous month's close at 4963) and closing on the highs of the day at 4947. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to generate any follow through on Tuesday (end of the month), meaning the reversal was confirmed when the index closed the month in the red.

The NASDAQ has generated 4 negative monthly reversals in the past 14 months, meaning that the traders may not put all that much stock in the reversal itself, especially since all of those reversals ended up with new multi-year highs being made soon thereafter. Nonetheless, the fact that this reversal came off of a likely successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 5048 with the 5026 close seen 3 weeks ago, does give this reversal a much higher probability of generating downside follow through and a multi-month correction.

The negative Jobs report that was released on Friday generated some strong selling in the after-hours market, suggesting the NASDAQ will open on Monday about 50 points lower. Any drop below last month's low at 4825 will confirm the negative reversal and likely bring about further selling of consequence.

To the upside, the NASDAQ now shows minor but possibly short-term pivotal intra-week resistance at last week's high at 4948. Further and stronger resistance is found at 5008 and strong at 5042. Major weekly close resistance is found at 5048. To the downside, there is decent intra-week support between 4825 and 4842. Further and important daily and weekly closing support is found at 4806 (previous multi-year high daily and weekly close). Below that, there is open air until the 200-day MA, currently at 4630 is reached. Further and likely short-term support of consequence is at 4547 that if broken would likely push the index down to the 4150 level.

The NASDAQ is facing an important week, inasmuch as confirmation of the monthly reversal with a drop below 4825, as well as a daily and weekly close below 4806 (which would be a sell signal and a failure to follow through signal) would likely bring about additional sell interest and a drop down to at least the 4700 level (general psychological support 300 points below 5000), if not down to the 4625 level which is the next weekly closing support. On the other side of the coin, any intra-week rally above 4948 would negate the short-term negative and at least take the index back up to 5000 and possibly/probably for another retest of the 5048 all-time high weekly close.

Probabilities strongly favor the NASDAQ getting down to 4800 this coming week, where the traders will have to decide whether the Jobs report news was sufficiently negative to generate a failure to follow through signal, which is turn would likely propel the index to at least the 4635-4700 level, or whether the fundamentals still support keeping the index above the previous multi-year high close at 4806 and testing the 5048 level one more time.

Probabilities favor the bears and the seasonal correction starting.

SPX Friday closing price - 2066

The SPX generated a weak green but uneventful weekly close on Friday, and having closed on the middle of the week's trading range, it suggests the traders were keeping their options open on both sides of the coin while waiting for further information in the form of the Jobs Report on Friday. The Jobs report was less than expected and generated quite a bit of selling in After Hours trading and the probabilities favor the index opening lower on Monday and heading down from there.

The SPX has been trading on both sides of the coin for the past 17 weeks, having seen 8 green and 9 red weekly closes during that period of time. The total gain seen between the highs during those 17 weeks has only been 27 points and the 2-way action suggests that the uptrend is ebbing or has stopped. In addition and just like with the DOW, the index has shown increased volatility for the same 17 weeks, having averaged a 55 point weekly trading range for that period of time, compared to the 32 point weekly trading range average seen from November 2012 to September 2014. Increased volatility and trading ranges on uptrends are usually associated with major tops or with tops that brought about strong corrections. The last time this type of action was seen was in the May-October 2011 period, which is when the index corrected 21% from the highs.

To the upside, the SPX shows minor to decent intra-week resistance between 2088 and 2093 and strong resistance between 2014 and 2019. To the downside, the index now shows minor to decent support between 2039 and 2048. Below that, there is no support until the 200-day MA, currently at 2010, is reached. Strong and likely mid-term pivotal support is found at 1972.

The SPX will likely open lower on Monday after the disappointing Jobs report and if the 2039 low seen on March 11th is broken, the probabilities will be high that a drop down to the 2000 level will occur. If the bulls are able to get above Monday's high at 2088 (unlikely now), it would probably bring about a wave of new buying that could re-establish the uptrend. As such, the 2039 and 2088 levels are pivotal this week. Probabilities favor the bears.


Both the ISM Index and Jobs reports came out less than expected this week and the market reacted negatively. The full-blown reaction to the Jobs Report will not be known until Monday when the market re-opens from the Easter weekend but if the After Hours action on Friday after the report came out is to be an indicator, it will be strongly negative. By the same token, the negative reaction may be ameliorated a bit since the FOMC minutes from last month come out on Wednesday at 2:00pm and it is possible and probably likely that the traders will wait to see if Fed Chief Yellen does something to prop up the market.

It also needs to be mentioned that next Wednesday after the close of the market, the earnings reports for the First Quarter start coming out and though volatility usually picks up during the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter, it has also been mostly supportive of the market over the past 7 years, meaning the traders may also wait to get a feel for how the earnings are coming out before making hard decisions.

Nonetheless, the probabilities are now strongly on the side of the bears due to volatility, 2-way action, and recent economic reports that show renewed weakness in the economy. In addition, the strong seasonal tendency for a correction to start sometime in the first quarter of the year remains, suggesting that there is very little the bulls can grab onto at this time, to generate new buying interest. As such, the likely question that will be asked now is how much of a correction will occur, rather than if it will occur.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions in the newsletter this week since it is still a bit of a mystery as to how the traders will react to the disappointing Jobs report and where they will open up on Monday and/or how low they will open, meaning that until I know what the indexes are doing and where they are trading, it is difficult to come up with any game plan strategy.

Nonetheless, the probabilities are high that I will give mentions in the message board this week (as soon as I get an idea of what the traders are thinking and doing), perhaps even as soon as the first hour of trading on Monday.

I do want to re-mention that FSLR is a presently held-long stock that I believe will outperform the market even if the indexes get into a strong correction and as such I am seriously considering adding positions on the next dip down to the 57.80 level (check out the update on the held-stocks comment area).

A purchase of FSLR between 57.50 and 57.90 and using a stop loss at 53.87 and having an objective of $82 will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2015, as of 3/1

Profit of $5413 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

QRVO (long) $276

Total Profit for February, per 100 shares and after commissions $276

Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

AMZN (long) $68

Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $68

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31

GS (short) $332
COF (short) $50

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

AXP (short) $694
FSLR (long) $20
ORCL (short) $67
OSK (short) $0

Total $1163

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31

KMX (short) $81
BWA (long) $10
OSK (short) $165

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

AREX (long) $342
VHC (long) $292
ARNA (long) $42
FCEL (long) $30
KMX (short) $190
ENG (long) $12

Total $1164

Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Profit of $207

Status of account/portfolio for 2015, as of 3/31

Profit of $5620 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

AREX generated a third successful retest of the 6-year low at 4.28, having gone down to 6.23 on Tuesday and holding above the previous 2nd successful retest low at 6.09 and then generating 2 green daily closes in a row thereafter. The stock then proceeded to close near the highs of the week and at the 100-day MA, currently at 7.50, that has been a MA resistance line that has been tested successfully 3 times before over the past 8 months but not broken on a daily closing basis. The stock is facing a decision week as the trading range between breakout and breakdown has now shrunk to the point that just about any action in either direction will result if a break of the now support at 6.23 and the break of the now intra-week resistance at 8.07. A close above the 100-day MA would suggest the bulls will have the edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then closing near the highs of the week, suggesting the stock will go above last week's high at 4.60 this week. More importantly, the 4.31 daily and weekly closing support was once again tested successfully, in spite of the stock trading down to 4.15 on Thursday, suggesting the bears have run out of ammunition. The stock closed on Friday exactly on the 200-day MA, currently at 4.46, and a green close on Monday would be seen as a positive, especially if the 6-day high at 4.60 is broken intra-week. Support can now be considered pivotal at 4.13/4.15 as a break of that area would negate what the bulls accomplished this past week.

AXP generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low but then closing in the green. The green weekly close was also a positive, having created a double bottom on the weekly closing chart at 78.08/77.97. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to close the gap between 79.78 and 80.03 on Thursday and the double bottom still needs to be confirmed with another green close next Friday, and with the Jobs report generating selling interest on Friday, the bulls may have a tough time getting the confirmation they need and closing the gap. Either of these scenarios would likely turn the tide back to the bears. Any daily close below 77.97 would now be considered a strong negative and would offer a $70-$71.50 objective. A rally above 81.53 would be a slight positive. A rally above 83.47 would give the bulls a strong edge.

BWA stayed within the flag area (58.33 - 63.30) of a bullish flag formation but did close on the highs of the week, suggesting the bulls will have a slight edge this coming week. By the same token, the 61.32 to 61.46 area has been decent intra-week resistance and weekly close resistance for the past 7 months and even more so intra-week for the last 19 trading days, meaning the bulls need to get above that level to stimulate new buying interest. With the indexes likely to open sharply lower on Monday, it will be difficult for the bulls to accomplish that goal. Strong support continues to be found at the bottom of the flag at 58.33 but if Wednesday's low at 59.50 gets broken, the bears will gain a slight edge. A break above 61.44 would suggest the stock will test the 63.30 high and if broken would suggest the 67.49 all-time high will be tested. By the same token, the bullish flag offers a 72.23 objective if the top of the flag at 63.30 is broken. Based on the indexes likely to open sharply lower, the probabilities favor the bears.

COF generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 80.44 is expected to be seen. Resistance of consequence is found at 81.82 and then again between 81.51 and 81.99 that if broken would suggest the 83.50 to 83.90 level would be tested. The 200-day MA is currently at 81.70 and there is a potential breakaway gap to the downside between 80.96 and 81.18 that if not closed would bring renewed selling pressure to the stock. Support of consequence is found at 77.70 but some support will be found at 78.50. The expected lower opening of the indexes and the fact the stock has traded below the 200-day MA for most of the last 3 months, does suggest the bears have the edge. Stop loss should remain at 82.09.

ENG made a new 5-month low this past week and the bears were finally able to close the gap between 1.59 and 1.63 that had been considered a bullish breakaway gap since it got created in November. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.51 is expected to be seen this week. Support of consequence is found between 1.32 and 1.42 and some minor support is found at 1.50. Nonetheless, the 1.50 level also has meaning on the weekly chart from the fact there is a 2-year 2-point trend-line using the all-time low at .30 cents and the spike low seen in November at 1.28, suggesting that if that line holds up and the stock reverses from that level, not only will it make it a much stronger 3-point trend-line but further confirmation that the stock is in a longer term base-building scenario with the upside the likely long-term resolution. A weekly close above 1.80 would now be considered strongly short-term bullish.

FCEL generated a green weekly close on Friday, suggesting the stock continues to trade sideways as it has done on the weekly closing chart for the past 4 weeks. On an intra-week basis, the stock generated a positive reversal, having made a new 8-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.29 will be seen this week. The new intra-week low did generate 3 positive days thereafter, also suggesting that the 1.19 level has now become a new support, perhaps of some consequence. Resistance is found at 1.35, at 1.40 and at 1.45 but a weekly close above 1.41 would suggest a breakout has occurred. A break below 1.19 would now be considered bearish. Probabilities favor more sideways trading but with a slight upward bias.

FSLR continued to trade within a bullish flag formation, having stayed above 58.61 and below 63.31, and still suggesting the chart has a bullish appearance. Even more bullish is the fact the bears failed to take the stock below the previous week's low at 58.61 in spite of the negative reversal and close on the lows of the week, meaning that the bulls seem to have control. The stock did make a new 5-month weekly closing high and did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 61.95 will be seen this week. Important and pivotal support continues to be found at 57.80 and intra-week resistance at 63.31 that if broken, would likely take the stock up to the next resistance level at 65.99. Nonetheless, the bullish flag formation continues to offer a 72.53 objective. Probabilities favor the bulls but the stock could see a bit of selling this week if the index market takes a nosedive.

GS generated an uneventful inside week but a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 192.73 will be seen this week. By the same token, this stock is sensitive to what the indexes do and if they open lower, it will suggest the stock will follow. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Thursday, and it did so from a decent intra-week resistance at 192.87, meaning that if the stock gets below Friday's low at 190.85 (now looking highly likely) that the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Support is found at Wednesday's low at 186.96, a bit stronger at 185.02 and decent and likely pivotal at 182.71 that does include the 200-day MA, currently at 182.60. A break of that support, as well as a close below the line, would suggest the stock will head down to the $175 level. Resistance is found at 192.87, at 193.38 and decent as well as pivotal at 194.25. Probabilities favor the bears, if for no other reason than the indexes are likely to open lower due to the disappointing Jobs report.

KMX received a better than expected earnings report and the stock made a new all-time high at 75.40. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above that level is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is likely to be sensitive to what the indexes do and as such, follow through to the upside is likely to depend on how the market opens on Monday and the market is likely to open sharply lower. The stock gapped up on Thursday between 69.21 and 71.97 and that gap is now considered pivotal support. Closure of the gap, especially on Monday, would be a bearish sign as it would make Thursday's high into a major spike high of consequence. Support is now found at 67.67 that if broken would be strongly bearish as it give a failure to follow through off of a bullish fundamental report. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls but this is likely to be a pivotal week for the stock.

ORCL confirmed the failure to follow through signal given the previous week, having closed for the second week in a row below the mini weekly close breakout at 44.93 The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 42.48 is expected to be seen. Minor support is found at 42.42 that if broken, would likely take the stock down to the 41.26/41.56 level that is considered pivotal intra-week support, especially since the 200-day MA is currently at 41.50. A close below that line would be strongly bearish for the long term and would suggest an immediate drop down to the $40 demilitarized zone that was important support and pivot point between April and December of last year. A break of that level would suggest the stock will get down to the next support level of consequence between 35.82 and 36.53. Minor resistance is found at 43.63 that also looks short-term pivotal, especially since the market is looking to open lower this week. Stop losses can now be lowered to 43.73. Probabilities favor the stock dropping down to at least the 41.56 level where the traders will likely make a decision of consequence, likely to be further downside.

OSK sneaked above the 50-week and 200-day MA, currently at 47.50 and 47.35 respectively, with a rally this week up to 49.08. Nonetheless, in spite of the break of those lines, the stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting last week's low at 47.48 will be broken this week. If that occurs and the stock "closes" below the MA's lines, a failure signal will be generated that would likely be of consequence, especially since none of the previous intra-week highs at 49.50, at 49.50, and at 50.27 were broken on the mini breakout of the MA lines. Overall, the chart continues to look leaning to the bear side and a break below the most recent low at 46.74 would be a sign the stock is heading lower. A break below 44.24 would suggest the $40 level of support will be visited. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

TOL made a new 13-month intra-week high and a new 9+year weekly closing high, above, the previous one seen in April of last year at 39.22. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 39.93 is expected to be seen. By the same token, the $40 level has been decent to strong resistance since October 2005 and with the indexes likely to open sharply lower on Monday, the bulls are not yet in control. By the same token, if the bulls are able to get the stock above the $40 demilitarized zone, and especially above the 41.65 high seen in October 2005, the bulls will take full control of the stock, with 45.65 becoming the first upside target. Pivotal support is now found at Wednesday's low at 38.76. A break of that level would offer a drop down to at least 37.50 and a break below 36.62 would offer at least a drop down the 35.00 but the weekly chart suggests the stock could drop all the way down to the $30 level if 36.62 is broken. The stock is likely to be sensitive to what the indexes do, meaning this coming week is likely to be pivotal. Probabilities favor the bulls but only slightly.

VHC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low but then turning around and closing above the previous week's high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.62 is expected to be seen. A rally above last week's high will make last week's low at 5.85 into a decent and certainly pivotal support level. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found between 6.85 and 6.95 that if broken would open the door for a rally up to the 8.00 level since there is no resistance of consequence between those 2 points. The stop loss can now be raised to 5.68. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) AXP - Averaged short at 83.65 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 83.57. Stock closed on Friday at 79.70.

2) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.27.

3) KMX - Shorted at 75.20. Averaged short at 69.366 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 74.73.

4) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.56.

5) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.19.

6) VHC - Averaged long at 4.86 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.69. Stock closed on Friday at 6.52.

7) AREX - Averaged long at 6.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.99. Stock closed on Friday at 7.33.

8) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.46.

9) ORCL - Shorted at 43.08. Stop loss now at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 42.62.

10) OSK - Shorted at 48.92. Averaged short at 48.08 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 50.81. Stock closed on Friday at 47.87.

11) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 39.90.

12) COF - Shorted at 79.32. Stop loss at 84.06. Stock closed on Friday at 80.31.

13) GS - Averaged short at 189.625 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 194.35. Stock closed on Friday at 191.55.

14) BWA - Purchased at 60.38. Stop loss is at 58.14. Stock closed on Friday at 61.09.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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