Issue #428
May 24, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Greek Default, Issue This Week?

DOW Friday closing price - 18232

The DOW generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intra-week high at 18351 and then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18217 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index remained above the previous all-time high weekly close from February at 18140, meaning that it cannot yet be said the reversal is all that indicative.

By the same token, the bulls have been unable to make a strong case for higher prices, given that the DOW has only appreciated a measly total of 63 points in value over the past 12 weeks and remains more at risk of a negative catalyst occurring than a positive catalyst being seen.

To the upside, and on a daily and weekly closing basis, the general resistance at 18300 demilitarized zone (18270-18330) has kept the bulls in the DOW at bay. As long as that continues to be the case the bears will maintain a "viable" chance of generating a correction. To the downside, minor but pivotal intra-week support is found at the 18200 level. A break of that level will likely put the index under sell pressure for the rest of the week. Daily close support is found at 18127 and a bit more meaningful at 18060. A break of that level will likely bring about a new retest of the 18000 demilitarized zone. Important and mid-term pivotal support is found at the 17700 area.

The DOW is likely to see some selling pressure this week as the Greeks have been given an end of May deadline for their next debt payment and the probabilities do not favor that payment being made. A Greek debt default that could lead to a possible exit from the Euro remains the most negative catalyst facing the market and due to the deadline, the issue is likely to hang over the market all week.

Probabilities favor the DOW dropping down once more to the 18000 level, a level that has been seen each and every week for the past 15 weeks. A break below 18200 any day this week will likely bring about a drop down to 18000.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5089

The NASDAQ made a new 4-week intra-week high and came within 16 points of the previous 15-year high at 5119 and within 29 points of the all-time high at 5132. Nonetheless, the index did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5103 is likely to be seen this week, suggesting the bulls will have at least one more opportunity this coming week to generate new all-time highs across the board.

By the same token, it can be said the bulls in the NASDAQ "fell short" as the index closed out the week at 5089 (3 points below the all-time high weekly close at 5092) even though the index was trading above that level just 30 minutes before the close. As such, the outlook for this coming week remains a big question mark, especially considering that if the bears are able to generate a red close next Friday it would create a double top of consequence.

To the upside, the NASDAQ shows intra-week resistance at 5119 and at 5132. Above that level there is no resistance. To the downside, last week's low at 5037 has to be considered indicative, inasmuch as a drop below that level this coming week would either create a double top or give a failure to follow through signal. Further support is found at the 5000 demilitarized zone. Below that level, there is intra-week support at 4931, at 4888 and the strong one at 4825. By the same token, if the first of those last 3 supports breaks (at 4931), the bears are likely to gain an edge that would be difficult for the bulls to overcome.

It should be mentioned that in the year 2011 the NASDAQ made a new 10-year high at 2887 (above the previous high at 2861 seen in 2007) and a few weeks later, after a small correction had occurred, the bulls attempted to resume the 2-year uptrend and were able to rally the index up to 2879, as well as close near the highs of the week, suggesting the following week the bulls would accomplish their goals. Nonetheless, no follow through to the upside was seen the following week and 3 weeks later the index began a correction that would end up shaving 20% off of its price. This tidbit of past chart history could end up being useful this coming week, especially if the index is unable to generate the follow through to the upside that is expected.

Due to the importance of the resistance level above, as well as the action seen this past week, the NASDAQ will be the index the traders are likely to key on this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bears because it is unlikely that such an important resistance level will be broken without a strong fundamental catalyst occurring and none of those are likely to be seen this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2126

The SPX once again (for the 5th week in a row) made a new all-time high weekly close, above the 2108/2110 high weekly close that was seen in February. Nonetheless, the bulls have only been able to add a grand total of 16 points during the last 10 weeks (less than a 1% appreciation), suggesting there is reluctance from the bulls in aggressively participating in taking the index higher.

In spite of the new all-time high weekly close, the SPX closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that some selling is likely to be seen this week and that last week's low at 2120 will probably be broken.

To the upside, the SPX shows no resistance above, other than last week's high at 2134. To the downside, minor intra-week support is found at 2122 and a slightly more important support at 2120, which represents last week's low. Below 2120 there is no support found until minor support at the 2100 demilitarized zone. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent intra-week support at 2185 and the decent and likely pivotal support at 2067.

The SPX is showing a possible bullish flag formation on the daily chart with the flagpole being the rally from 2085 to 2134 and the flag the trading range seen the past week between 2120 and 2134. A break above last week's high at 2134 would not only be unexpected due to the close in the lower half of the week's trading range but would offer an objective of 2169 due to flag formation. By the same token, a break below 2120 would suggest 2100 would be seen, which in turn would negate the bullish flag. As such, it can be said the SPX is likely to be the first to give a clue as to the short-term direction of the market.


The indexes remain with a slight upward bias but without the kind of strength that would suggest the uptrend will continue unabashed. By the same token, the market is likely to see some selling pressure this week due to the end-of-the-month deadline given to the Greeks for the next debt payment. The present outlook suggests the Greeks will be unable to fulfill the obligation, which in turn would open the door for a Euro exit. Such an event would likely affect the market negatively.

Overall though, the indexes have remained extremely resilient to negative numbers, meaning that if there is no strong negative catalyst, further upside is the most likely scenario.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week. Traders are likely to wait to see how the Greek Debt Issue deadline of May 31st is resolved, as well as wait for the ISM Index and Jobs reports due out next week. As such, trading this week should be subdued and without much direction.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX made a new 7-week low this past week but the bulls were able to generate a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.51 will be seen this week. The stock did get down to a minor but established level of intra-week support at 6.85 (fell to 6.83) and the bulls were able to generate a bounce from it, meaning the possibilities that this minor correction is over are decent. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 7.59, a bit stronger at 7.85 and decent between 8.07 and 8.34. The 6-month uptrend remains intact and if the resistance levels mentioned above are broken, the stock will likely continue up toward its $10 objective. To the downside, the 6.09-6.23 area remains important and pivotal support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

ARNA bulls attempted to rally the stock this past week, having gone above the previous week's high at 4.35. Nonetheless, the rally failed as the stock turned back down to close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.14 will be seen this week. The 4.05 level is now a likely downside target for this coming week but the chart is now leaning indicatively to the downside with 3.85 as a support level that should now be seen. The monthly chart actually suggests the stock has a high possibility of dropping as low as 3.49. Resistance is now decent and indicative at 4.42. Probabilities favor the bears.

BWA spun its wheels this past week, having generated an inside week and a close near the middle of the week's trading range. The stock for the past 3 weeks has traded in a small trading range between 61.23 on the downside and 61.93 on the upside, suggesting the traders are waiting for some catalyst to generate direction. Nonetheless, the probabilities slightly favor the downside this coming week with at least the $60 demilitarized zone being seen but with a possibility of the stock getting down over the next week or two as low as 58.33. By the same token, if the bulls are able to get above last week's high at 61.93, further upside up to at least 62.85 would likely be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

COF made a new 8+ year high this past week at 85.68, above the previous high seen in July of last year at 85.38. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the stock only closed 7 points above the previous high weekly close at 84.95, meaning that if the bears can generate a red close next Friday, it will be seen as an ominous double top on the weekly closing chart. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 85.69 is likely to be seen this week. By the same token, the stock generated 3 red daily closes in a row at the end of the week and the first course of action is likely to be to the downside, below Friday's low at 84.61. Minor daily close support is found at 84.95, at 84.07, and at 83.31. Minor intra-week support is found at 83.59, at 82.24 and at 81.40. Decent intra-week support is found at the $80 demilitarized zone. The 84.00 level seems to be pivotal this week as it was last week's low and a break below that level would suggest the recent breakout has failed. Probabilities favor the bulls but it does look like a pivotal week.

CBRL generated a green weekly close, as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 140.34 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the lows of the day on Friday and the first course of action is likely to be to the downside. Support is found at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 137.75, and again at the 137.00 demilitarized zone. Resistance is found at Thursday's high at 140.34 as well as at the 142.48 to 142.84 level, which also includes the 50-day MA. Probabilities favor the stock trading between $137 and $143 until some new catalyst is found.

ENG continues to trade mostly sideways without any clear direction. Support is found at 1.42 and resistance at 1.74. A break of either of those 2 levels is likely to generate some short term direction. The stock closed exactly in the middle of that trading range on Friday, meaning that the traders are likely to continue in the trading range until some new catalyst is found.

FCEL made a new 15-week low at 1.15 and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside is likely to be seen this week. Support is found at 1.14 but the chart suggests that level will be broken, meaning the longer term support at 1.10-1.12 is likely to be seen. The company reports earnings on Wednesday June 3th and the stock is not likely to generate any substantial rally until that report comes out, and even then only if the earnings are better than the $-.02 that is expected. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at the 1.45 level.

FSLR bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the previous week's rally and close on the highs of the week to close on Friday on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.70 will be seen this week. Support is found between 54.57 and 54.63 that if broken would suggest the bullish gap seen after the February earnings report between 49.97 and 54.57 will be closed. In addition, the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation that if broken (a drop below 54.57) would offer a $46 objective. Resistance is presently found between 57.15 and 57.82 that if broken would negate the recent sell interest. Probabilities favor the bears based on the present chart but it is evident this coming week is pivotal and that both options (upside and downside) are wide open.

MMM bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the upside after the previous week's close on the highs of the week, causing the stock to generate a red weekly close as well as a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 160.66 will be seen this week. The red weekly close also gave the $163 level additional resistance strength. The stock seems to be trading between $157 and $163 and the probabilities favor the stock heading down to the $157 level at this time. Minor support is found at the $160 demilitarized zone and then nothing of consequence until 157.74 is reached. Resistance is decent at 163.77 that if broken would give the bulls the edge.

NFX generated a green weekly close, as well as a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.48 will be seen this week. The stock did close in the bottom half of Friday's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Support is found at 36.79 and at 35.97 that one or the other are likely to hold up with the lower one being the most likely to be seen. Resistance, is found at last week's high at 38.45 and a bit stronger at 39.37. Probabilities favor a trading range this week between 35.97 and 39.27. A rally above 40.27 would be a bullish statement while a drop below 33.96 a bearish short-term statement. Traders are likely to wait for further information from the indexes or from oil prices to make a longer term decision.

TOL generated another green weekly close but the stock did close near the lows of the week, suggesting that last week's high at 38.96 could end up being a spike high retest of the 9+ year high at 40.33, if and when the bears can take the stock below last week's low at 37.35. Pivotal "short-term support" is found at 36.62 that if broken would suggest the stock will test the pivotal longer term support at 35.00. The probabilities favor the stock being in a $35 to $40 trading range until such a time that the market decides what to do longer term.

XOM generated another red weekly close on Friday and the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 86.21 will be seen this week. The chart shows a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 90.09 to 86.21 and the flag being the trading range seen the last 2 weeks up to 87.73. A break below 86.21 will offer a downside objective of 83.85. A break above 87.73 will offer a 90.00 objective. Additional support is found at 84.70, which if broken would negate the inverted flag formation. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.17.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.58.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 55.07.

4) AREX - Purchased at 6.88. Averaged long at 6.28 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.99. Stock closed on Friday at 7.25.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.19.

6) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.69.

7) BWA - Purchased at 60.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.10.

8) CBRL - Purchased at 140.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.40.

9) NFX - Shorted at 38.39. Averaged short at 38.94 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 38.04.

10) COF - Shorted at 85.18. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 85.02.

11) XOM - Shorted at 87.21. Stop loss at 90.35. Stock closed on Friday at 86.52.

12) MMM - Shorted at 163.54. Stop loss is at 165.80. Stock closed on Friday at 160.98.


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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

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