Issue #431
June 14, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Economic Reports Positive, Reaction Negative?

DOW Friday closing price - 17898

The DOW had a semi-volatile 395 point trading range week but the end result of all that action was only a gain of 49 points for the bulls. The action revolved around the Greek debt problem with rallies happening when there was hope for a resolution and drops happening when there wasn't. With a resolution objective of a decision before the market opens on Monday, there is little to mention chart-wise regarding the trading action seen last week. Direction for the week will depend on the decision.

To the upside, the DOW now shows likely pivotal intra-week resistance at last week's high at 18109. Further intra-week resistance, and probably more important because it is resistance on the weekly chart is at 18288. Strong resistance is at the all-time intra-week high at 18351. To the downside, there is minor to perhaps decent support between 17714 and 17733, and likely pivotal support, at least on a closing basis, between 17579 and 17635, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 17635.

The Greek debt problem resolution will be the catalyst this week. A rally above 18109 will likely take the DOW up to 18288. If that resistance is broken, the index will then test the 18351 all-time high and if broken (probable under that scenario), a new leg to the uptrend will likely begin. If the Greeks fail to come up with a compromise the 17579 to 17700 level will likely be visited and if 17579 is broken, further downside, likely to at least 17000 will likely be seen.

The probabilities favor the bears, inasmuch as it is unlikely a resolution to the Greek problem will be found. In addition, the indexes seem to have built a short-term top of consequence and the seasonal correction (sell in May and go away) seems to have begun, which would require the bulls to come up with additional positive fundamental news (other than the Greek debt resolution) for the DOW to make new highs.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5051

The NASDAQ has now generated 3 red weekly closes in a row but the bears have not made many inroads to the downside as all the closes have been within 39 points of the all-time high weekly close at 5089. In fact, none of the red weekly closes have been able to negate the break of the previous all-time high weekly close at 5048, suggesting the bulls still have the edge.

The NASDAQ did gap down on Friday (between 5075 and 5067) and if the Greeks fail to accomplish a new debt deal before the opening on Monday the index is likely to gap down again, which in turn would create an ominous breakaway/runaway gap formation that would give the bears strong ammunition and give the traders clearly defined chart points to follow. By the same token, if the gap is closed on Monday, or a gap occurs to the upside above 5075, it would suggest that the recent intra-week high at 5119 would be broken and the all-time intra-week high at 5132 would be tested. If that level of resistance is broken, a new leg to the uptrend would likely ensue.

To the downside, a break below last week's low at 4974 and daily close below 5000, would suggest the index will drop down to the 4850-4875 level, if not all the way down to the 200-day MA, currently at 4775.

Like with all the indexes, the NASDAQ will be dependent on the Greek debt problem. Nonetheless, even if that is resolved, the 5132 level remains an obstacle that would need to be broken for the bulls to gain ammunition for a new leg to the uptrend.

SPX Friday closing price - 2094

The SPX generated a 43 point trading range but only closed 2 points above last week's close, suggesting the index will also be dependent on the resolution of the Greek debt problem.

To the upside, the SPX shows pivotal resistance on the daily chart at last week's high at 2115, resistance on the weekly chart at 2119 and all-time high resistance at 2135. A rally above 2115/2119 will suggest the all-time high will be tested and likely broken. To the downside, support is found at last week's low at 2072 and likely more indicative at the 200-day MA, currently at 2050. A break below 2039 would be a strong bearish sign.

The SPX continues to be more of a follower than a leader and will likely to what the other indexes do.


It does seem that the Greek debt problem will come to a resolution point before Monday's opening. The debt extension deadline is June 30th but any deal that is made between the IMF and Greece will need to be ratified by national parliaments. As such, there is a self-imposed deadline for Monday.

The probabilities of a deal occurring are low as the Greeks seem to be totally unwilling to live by the austerity measures that are being imposed by the IMF. On the other side of the coin, the IMF seems to be unwilling to continue to offer funds to the Greeks if there is no real hope for the payments to be delivered as scheduled.

As to how much a deal or no deal would move the market at this time is purely speculative since a deal would likely be only a temporary solution while a no deal and exit from the Euro is a negative that cannot be calculated at this time. Nonetheless, it is certainly evident that the action this coming week will revolve around the deal or no deal scenario.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The market is waiting for a resolution on the Greek debt crisis and until that is resolved trading the market is a difficult proposition since there seems to be no clear overall direction.

One of the mentions made a couple of weeks ago, but not yet having achieved the desired entry point, is viable again this week. This stock has its own chart outlook that is not necessarily dependent on the indexes giving direction.

SALES

LNG Friday Closing Price - 71.40

LNG is a natural gas company that moved up from $.95 cents to $85 from October 2008 to September 2014. The stock accelerated the rally after it made a new all-time high in December 2013, above the previous all-time high at 44.40 that had stood up for 7+ years before it got broken. Nonetheless, for the past 10 months the stock has been showing strong volatility and has built a double top on the monthly closing chart at 80.26 and 80.53 which suggests the stock is not likely to go higher at this time and probably will spend a few months exploring the recent support levels built, which are $15 lower than where the stock is presently trading at.

LNG was given as a sell mention 2 weeks ago but failed to reach the desired entry point and as such the short trade was not instituted. The stock took a $6 tumble in price (got down to 68.97) and in the process broke the 200-day MA, currently at 74.75, which had held firm (with 1 exception) during the past year. The bulls were able to generate a small recovery rally the previous week but last week the stock had an inside week, meaning the traders are on the sideline for now. The chart still suggests that a retest of the breakdown level at 74.75 is likely to occur before further downside is seen.

To the upside, LNG shows minor resistance starting at 73.71 and up to 74.75 from previous lows of consequence. Further and likely pivotal resistance is found at 76.98, which is the last high seen prior to the break.

To the downside, LNG shows minor support at the $70 demilitarized zone, a bit stronger at last week's low at 68.97 and at 68.76 and then a bit stronger again at 67.12, which was a spike low seen in August as well as being a "general" support level. Below that level, decent support is found at 65.68 that if broken would suggest the $60 level will be visited.

LNG broke an important support line last week and it is likely that level will be tested before further selling is seen, especially since the stock already corrected 8% in value with the break. Nonetheless, keeping in mind that the probabilities do favor the indexes getting into a seasonal correction, if the retest of the break is successful, the monthly chart suggests the stock could fall down to the $63-$65 level before any new buying is seen.

Sales of LNG between 74.65 and 75.00 and using a stop loss at 77.08 and having a 65.00 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX generated another red weekly close, the 6th in a row and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks but no new lows below the recent intra-week low at 6.55 was seen. The stock did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low, suggesting the bears still have a strong edge. As such, short-term pivotal resistance is now found at the 7.30 high seen this past week. Weekly close support is pivotal at 6.48, though on an intra-week basis the 6.22 and 6.09 levels are support. The probabilities still favor the bears but less so than the past few weeks.

ARNA bulls were unable to confirm the break above the 200-day MA, currently at 4.30, having gone above last week's high but then generating a negative reversal as well as a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.10 will be seen this week. The action seen has to be considered a negative sign that suggests the stock will continue lower with closure of the breakaway gap between 3.59 and 3.66 as the objective. There is a possibility the stock is just stuck in a trading range between 3.85 and 4.45 and that it will continue to trade in that range until news comes out. The support at 4.09 is somewhat pivotal for the beginning of the week because if it holds up, then the bulls will get some chart ammunition to attempt a new break of the 200-day MA. Nonetheless, if 4.09 is broken, it will mean the bears are still fully in control and that the bulls are playing a defensive game.

COF generated a spike rally this past week after the bulls were successful in making a new 9-year high, above the previous high at 85.39/85.68. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 87.94 is likely to be seen this week. Resistance is found at 88.58, at 89.14 and at the all-time high at 90.04. The bulls have the edge right now and the probabilities are high that the 90.04 all-time high will be tested. Nonetheless, without the indexes making new highs themselves, it is unlikely the stock will be able to make a new high itself. The previous high at 85.68 is likely to be tested at some point, perhaps even this week. The chart seems to suggest though, that the stock will be in a trading range between $80 and $90 for the next few months.

ENG continued to slide downward, having made a new 8-month weekly closing low this past week. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.42 is likely to be seen. Intra-week support is found at 1.32 but on a weekly closing basis, the 1.42 level is considered decent support. The stock is somewhat mimicking the 23-week action seen between November 2013 and April 2014 between 1.88 and 1.32, suggesting that if the 1.32 level is seen this week but holds up, that the stock will start moving higher (though in a slow manner) for at least another 6 weeks.

FCEL made a new 25-month weekly closing low on Friday, having closed below the 1.12 level seen in January of this week. The weakness came after the bulls failed to close the gap at 1.20, generated after the earnings report came out. On an intra-week basis, the previous low seen in January at 1.05 has not been broken yet. Nonetheless, having closed near the lows of the week, the probabilities of that low being seen this week is high. This coming week is pivotal, inasmuch as a break below 1.05 would likely cause the stock to move back down to the .80-1.00 range where the stock traded between September 2011 and April 2013. On the other side of the coin, if the stock gets down to 1.05 and the bulls can generate a positive reversal week and a close above 1.12 next Friday, it would be seen as a strong double bottom on both the intra-week and weekly closing chart. The probabilities do favor this latter scenario, if for no other reason than the company is in better shape fundamentally than it was back in 2001/2013 and a return to those prices seems unlikely to occur.

FSLR continued to trade around the important psychological support/resistance level at $50, as the traders await further news on what the general market is going to do. The stock did make a new 14-week low on Tuesday but no follow through was seen and the traders promptly got back to an idling phase awaiting new news. Minor resistance is found at 51.74/51.87 and then nothing until the bottom of the gap between 53.03 and 54.90 is reached. Support is now found between 49.01 and 49.26. Probabilities continue to favor the stock being in a $47-$53 trading range but as to what level is tested first is dependent on what the market does. Closure of the gap at 54.90 would be a strong positive.

NFX bulls did make a new 3-week high but were unable to get above the high seen on May 21st at 38.45, suggesting the bears still have a slight edge. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 36.59 is likely to be seen this week. Minor intra-week support is found 36.11 and a bit stronger and short-term pivotal is at 35.48. Further support is found at 34.98 and at 33.96. Weekly chart continues to suggest that the probabilities favor the 200-week MA, currently at 31.90, being tested. A rally above 38.45 would now be considered a decent positive.

SINA saw follow through to the previous week's strong rally and did close above the 200-week MA, currently at 58.00. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 60.94 is expected to be seen. The close above the MA line will be a strong positive if the resistance at 61.75 is broken and another close above the line is seen next Friday. Nonetheless, the $60 level has proven to be a decent resistance level since 2012 and the fundamentals factors do not yet support the bulls making that kind of a statement. Closest support of any consequence is not found until 51.26, meaning that if the bulls fail to get above 61.75 this week, the stock could generate a decent move down thereafter.

TOL generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous weeks' high. In addition, the stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 37.83 will be seen this week. Intra-week resistance if found at 38.96 but on a daily closing basis the resistance is at 38.04 that if broken would suggest the $40 level will be revisited. Support is now at 36.62 that if broken would turn the tables back to the favor of the bears. Probabilities are about even right now with the stock likely to follow whatever the indexes do.

XOM bulls attempted an early week rally, having made a new 11-day high above the previous high at 85.89 (got up to 85.97). Nonetheless, the new high failed to generate any follow through buying and the stock reversed to generate another red weekly close (the 5th in a row) and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 83.86 will be seen this week. Intra-week support is found at 82.68 that is likely to be seen this week. A break below that level will offer at least an $80 objective. Likely pivotal resistance is now found at 85.97. Probabilities favor the bears.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 1.10.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.45.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 50.48.

4) AREX - Averaged long at 6.28 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.99. Stock closed on Friday at 6.70.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.11.

6) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop is now at 37.02. Stock closed on Friday at 37.29.

7) SINA - Shorted at 60.19. Stop loss at 61.85. Stock closed on Friday at 60.74.

8) NFX - Averaged short at 38.94 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 36.67.

9) COF - Averaged short at 84.66 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 87.57.

10) XOM - Averaged short at 85.93 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 85.94. Stock closed on Friday at 84.02.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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