Issue #436
July 19, 2015
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Greek Crisis Averted. Indexes Rally But.....

DOW Friday closing price - 18086

The DOW negated the sell signal given the previous week, having closed on Friday above the previous high weekly close at 18015. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18131 is expected to be seen.

The DOW underperformed the other indexes, inasmuch as it is still 1.2% from its all-time high, whereas the other indexes are either "at" or above their all-time highs. Nonetheless, the DOW will have a chance to "make amends" this week as a big portion of its stocks are reporting earnings in the first 3 days of the week (TRV, IBM, MSFT, AAPL, and BA) and if they are better than expected, it is likely the index will reverse last week's under-performance.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps pivotal resistance at 18188, minor to decent resistance again at 18288 and strong resistance at the all-time high at 18351. To the downside, there is minor intra-week support at the 18000 demilitarized zone (17970-18030), minor at 17925 and then basically nothing until the 200-day MA, currently at 17730 is reached. The support at the 17700-17730 has to be considered pivotal as a close below that level would negate all of the rally seen this past week.

With the Greek crisis resolved (at least for the short term) this coming week will be mostly about earnings. The probabilities favor the DOW heading higher as earnings have not been disappointing so far and the traders seem to be committed to higher prices across the board, especially with the NASDAQ and the tech sector "on fire". Nonetheless, the bulls in the index still have something to prove and they will need good earnings to accomplish their goals. Chart-wise, the 18188/18205 level seems to be key for the week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5210

The NASDAQ, aided by much better than anticipated earnings on 2 of its largest tech-sector stocks (NFLX and GOOG), as well as by resolution of the Greek crisis, made new all-time intra-week and weekly closing highs on Friday. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5210 is likely to be seen.

The NASDAQ should see higher prices this week since NFLX, GOOG, and AMZN (which reports on Wednesday after the close) generated moves this past week of 21%, 18% and 8% (respectively) and further upside is expected to be seen, especially since they all made new all-time highs, closed on the highs of the week, and in a spike-type fashion. In addition, AMZN will report this week and based on how the other earnings reports came out, it should continue higher as well.

Nonetheless, it does seem that the overall market is mostly running to the upside on the back of these 3 stocks and though the stocks are likely to continue higher, "general" chart rules suggest that a 30% rally from the previous low, as well as a 15% rally from a previous all-time high are areas where selling will begin to be seen. In the case of GOOG that would be anywhere between $684 and $694, in NFLX that would be somewhere around $118.50 and in AMZN it would be somewhere between $501 and $511. What these numbers suggest is that the NASDAQ is not likely to continue much higher above the highs seen last week. In addition, the 5300 level must be considered "general" resistance as it is 300 points above the 5000 level, also suggesting that further upside of no more than about 1.8% above Friday's close will be seen before some correction occurs.

To the upside, the NASDAQ does not show any resistance except perhaps "general" resistance at the 5300 level. To the downside, support is found at 5163, which is the previous all-time high as well as where the runaway gap between 5163 and 5183 is located. Below that level, there is no support until the 5000 demilitarized zone 4970-5030 is reached.

The NASDAQ chart is showing a possible upward island formation on the weekly chart, having gapped down 4 weeks ago between 5060 and 5051 and having gapped up last week between 5020 and 5036. In addition, a breakaway/runaway gap is found between 5020 and 5036 and between 5163 and 5183 that does give the bulls strong ammunition to continue higher, at least for the short-term and probably with the 5300 objective. By the same token, closure of the runaway gap down at 5163 would be seen as a negative trigger and it would suggest the breakaway gap down at 5020 will be closed, which in turn would mean the island gap formation would be negated. As it is, island formations are "very rare" and usually are found only at major tops or major bottoms and since the index cannot be at a major bottom, the probabilities favor the gap being closed at "some point".

Probabilities strongly favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week. There are no important/catalytic economic reports due out and negative earnings (if they come out negative) are not likely to stop the momentum to the upside since the earnings last week were all mostly positive. The big question is how much higher will the index go and my best guess is the 5300 level. No strong selling pressure is likely to be seen this week, though a drop back down near the 5163 level could occur. Possible trading range for the week could be something like 5170 to 5270.

SPX Friday closing price - 2126

The SPX, like the DOW, also negated the sell signal on the weekly closing chart given last week to close at the previous all-time high weekly close at 2126 and above the previous high weekly close at 2109. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above 2128 is likely to be seen, strongly suggesting that a new all-time intra-week high above 2135, as well as new all-time weekly closing high above 2126 will be seen this coming week.

The SPX was helped this past week by much better than expected earnings on GS as well as better earnings on JPM and on BAC. MS will report earnings on Monday morning and based on how the other banking firms did this past week, it is likely to beat expectations as well.

The SPX has not been the leader of the market for quite some time but has mostly followed the NASDAQ and not the DOW, meaning that new all-time highs are likely to be seen this week since the NASDAQ is expected to continue strongly higher.

To the upside, the SPX shows decent weekly close resistance at 2126, decent daily close resistance at 2130 and strong intra-week resistance at the all-time high at 2135. Above that level there is no resistance. To the downside, there is no support of consequence until the 2100 demilitarize zone (2097-2103) is reached. Below that level, there is minor to decent support at 2172 and then nothing until the 200-day MA, currently at 2016, is reached.

Though the bulls in the SPX were not able to make a new all-time high last week, in any of the venues (daily, weekly and intra-week), there doesn't seem to be enough selling strength at the previous highs to stop the bulls from accomplishing new highs across the board this week. The index closed on Friday only 3 points below last month's high at 2129 but already went below last month's low at 2056 (got down to 2044), meaning that a rally this week above 2129 (likely) will generate a positive monthly reversal. The NASDAQ already accomplished that feat, suggesting the SPX will do the same. Probabilities favor the bulls.


The Greek crisis was resolved this past week and it gave the bulls the needed respite from a potentially strongly negative situation to disaffirm the selling interest. In addition, second quarter earnings have generally been coming is as or better than expected (especially in the Tech sector), meaning the bulls also got some positive ammunition with which to possibly regenerate the uptrend.

This coming week there are no economic reports of consequence and the traders are likely to key mostly on earnings and on charts. Nonetheless, based on how the earnings have been coming out and the fact the resistance levels above are week to non-existent, the probabilities strongly favor further upside.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The Greek crisis is over and the market is now likely to get back to the kind of trading that was seen prior to it all starting. Nonetheless, that is not saying much since the indexes have been trading mostly sideways since January and though new highs are being made presently, it doesn't look like the bulls have enough "fire power" to keep the rally going on for much longer or much higher prices, meaning that more sideways trading, with perhaps a slight bias to the upside will be seen.

By the same token, it is highly likely that buying and selling interest is going to change with overbought stocks likely to correct and oversold stocks likely to rally. This change is likely to happen over the next 2 weeks as the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter end.

Nonetheless, at this moment I have no confirmation on the charts of this outlook and as such, I have no desire to be aggressive in buying oversold stocks or aggressive in selling overbought stocks, at least not until some chart action that supports my outlook is seen.

I will not have any specific or "official" mentions this week but I will give you some stocks that I am putting strong interest in:

PURCHASES

1) AREX around 4.70 with a stop loss at 4.18 and potential for $10 objective over a period of 4 months. Rating of 3.75.
2) FSLR around the 42.00 level with a stop loss at 39.08 and an objective of $52 over a period of 4-6 weeks. Rating of 3.25.
3) BWA around the $50 demilitarized zone with a stop loss at 48.25 and an objective of $60 over the next 2-3 months. Rating of 3.25.
4) OSK around the 40.00 level with a stop loss at 38.64 and an objective of 47.00. Rating of 2.75.
5) GPS below 36.00 with a stop loss at 34.65 and an objective of 42.50. Rating of 3.
6) DD between 57.00 and 58.00 with a stop loss at 56.00 and an objective of 70.00 over a period of 2-3 months. Rating of 3.5

SALES

1) HD around 115.50 with a stop loss at 116.58 and objective of 107.00. Rating of 3
2) BBW around the $20 demilitarized zone (19.70-20.30) with a stop loss at 21.00 and an objective of 15.00. Rating of 3.

I will likely be giving a sell mention on one of the big NASDAQ stocks soon, but it will certainly not be this week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AREX made a new 6+ year low weekly close, below the one seen in December at 5.16. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 4.97 is likely to be seen this week. The stock has now had red weekly closes on 10 out of the last 11 weeks and there seems to be no end, chart-wise or fundamentally, to the weakness being seen. The all-time low weekly close is at 4.64 and the probabilities are high that level will be seen this week. On an intra-week basis though, the intra-week low seen in December was at 4.28 and it does seem unlikely that level will be broken at this time, meaning that consideration can be given to purchases of the stock around the 4.64 level with a stop loss at 4.18. If that support level holds up, the chart suggest a rally up to the $10 could be seen in the coming months. It should be mentioned that 3 weeks ago the weekly volume dropped under 300,000 for the first time in 9-months and was the lowest since June 2014 when it got down to 209,000. In November when the stock got down to 4.28, the volume had also been dropping and just 3 weeks before the 18-week uptrend to 9.57 began, the volume dropped down to 389.000 (which had been a 5-month low since June). It should be mentioned that just 3 weeks ago the volume dropped down to 289,000, and if past volume history is any indication, it could mean that a turn to the upside might be right around the corner.

ARNA made a new 17-week high, matching the high seen the third week of March at 5.12. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to confirm the mini breakout, having closed on Friday still below the 6-month weekly closing high at 4.81. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the probabilities favor last week's low at 4.29 being broken, rather than last week's high at 5.12 being broken. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not necessarily favor the bears strongly since the traders had one main objective this past week and that was to close the unsupported gap down at 4.50 that had been generated the day of the rally (rally off of another company in the same industry getting good news) and that occurred on Friday, meaning that the stock could end up having an inside week or even a rally above last week's high if the 200-day MA, currently at 4.35, holds up. The increase in volatility seen the past few weeks does favor the bulls since any change of volatility (without news) generally favors the opposite side of the trend (which has been down). Once again, likely pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 4.72 and also likely short-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 4.18.

ENG saw volatility this past week, having seen the biggest trading range in 6 weeks (17 points). Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make anything of consequence happen since a red weekly close (the 6th in a row) occurred. The stock made a new 21-month weekly closing low but the bears were unable to make a convincing statement since the close was only 2 points below the previous low weekly close at 1.31 and if the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next week, it will still be seen as a double bottom on the weekly closing chart. Support is still at 1.25 and resistance is at 1.42.

FCEL generated the first green weekly close in the last 7 weeks, likely because the bears have been unable to generate a new low over the past 11 trading days to this recent downtrend and short-covering occurred. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to accomplish anything either, suggesting that the stock may have found a bottom at the .86 level but not yet found enough buying interest to generate any meaningful rally. Minor resistance is found at .95 and a bit stronger and more pivotal at 1.06. Support is found at .88 and at .86. Probabilities favor the stock continuing to trade sideways with perhaps a slight bias to the upside with the 1.00 demilitarized zone (.97-1.03) being the present target.

FSLR bulls attempted to rally the stock, having gone above last week's high early in the week. Nonetheless, on Friday the bulls were unable to make any kind of a statement, having generated another red weekly close and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.75 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the red weekly close was only by 8 points below last week's close (43.95 vs last week 44.03), meaning that the 200-week MA, currently at 44.35, has not yet been broken convincingly as a green close next Friday above 44.35 would still be seen as a successful retest of the line. Intra-week support is found at the previous week's low at 42.71 and if the stock gets below 43.75 but not below 42.71 and then turns around to close in the green next Friday it will also be seen as a successful retest of the recent low, something that is required by the chart before any recovery of consequence can occur. Resistance is now minor to decent at last week's high at 47.01, which also represents the general support/resistance level found $3 below any psychological support, such as $50 is considered to be. Though the bears still have the probabilities in their favor, the chart seems to suggest that a turn-around will happen this week.

PRAA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-month intra-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 62.90 will be seen this week. The negative reversal has to be discouraging for the bulls, inasmuch as this stock has been one of the stalwarts in the index rally, having moved up from 47.84 to last week's high at 64.82 over the past 4 months and then reversing on a week where the indexes showed strength. Short-term support is found at 62.90 and at 62.00, and then stronger and pivotal at 61.29. Resistance is found at last week's high at 64.82 and strong at the all-time high at 65.00. Probabilities still favor the bulls, inasmuch as the previous all-time high weekly close at 63.25 that was broken 4 weeks ago, still has not been negated (closed at 63.31 on Friday).

SINA generated an inside week (lower highs and higher lows than the previous week), suggesting that some buying or short-covering interest is being seen. Nonetheless, the stock extended the recent downtrend with another red weekly close and did so closing below the mini breakout level on the weekly closing chart at 43.70, meaning that the buying interest here is still small. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 41.98 is likely to be seen. Intra-week support is found at 41.90, at 41.11 and at 40.44 but if the 40.44 level is broken, it will be another sell signal of consequence. Chart seems to suggest the stock will get down to the 41.11 level and then turn around, though if the bulls are able to get below 41.98 but not below 41.90, it would be a short-term positive sign of some consequence. Resistance is found at 44.98 and then very minor at 46.92. Decent resistance is now found at last week's high at 49.90, which does include the psychological resistance at $50. Probabilities suggest the bulls might have a small bias this week, inasmuch as a gap was left on Wednesday between 44.34 and 44.73 that should be closed, meaning that if the stock heads lower at the beginning of the week, that gap will act as a magnet.

TOL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 13-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 38.06 will be seen this week. The negative reversal was unexpected, inasmuch as the indexes moved higher and the Housing starts report was better than expected. Nonetheless, the red weekly close does make the previous week's close at 38.87 into a successful retest of the 9+-year high weekly close at 39.90 and does give the bears' added hope that the stock is ready to correct. Minor support is found at 37.83 and a bit stronger and definitely more pivotal at 37.55. The weekly chart suggests that a break below 37.55 will take the stock down to at least 36.62, if not down to the $35-$36 level. Resistance is now decent between 39.57 and 39.69. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

VHC was able to generate a second green weekly close, suggesting that a bottom has been found at the 4.05 level, perhaps of some consequence. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet been able to make a statement of any consequence as no resistance levels have been reached, much less broken. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.76 will be seen this week, which in turn if it happens would give the bulls a bit of added ammunition as that level is now considered minor but slightly short-term pivotal resistance. Above 4.76, resistance is found at 4.95 and again at 5.22 and it must be mentioned that the 200-day MA is currently at 5.55 and the probabilities of that line being broken anytime soon are minimal. Minor support is found on the 60-minute chart at the 4.43 level that represents the 200 60-minute MA. On the intra-week chart though, no support has yet been built until the 4.02-4.09 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls at this time but only for a rally up to the 5.00-5.30 level.

XOM was able to generate a small green weekly close, suggesting the selling interest may be waning a bit. Then again, the mini rally may be a bit of short-covering due to the fact that oil prices got back down to what is considered a decent psychological support at $50, meaning that oil prices and the stock may be just pausing as they get into a trading range. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 83.48 that if broken, suggests that a rally up to the 85.00 level is likely to be seen. Support is now found at the previous week's low at 81.49. A drop down to the $79-$80 remains a high probability but the chart suggests the stock will be in a trading range between $$79/$80 and $84/$85 for some weeks, if not a couple of months. As such, "trading" the stock within that range seems to be the best course of action.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.227 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .91.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.29.

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 59.404 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.95.

4) AREX - Averaged long at 6.28 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.99.

5) ARNA - Averaged long at 4.30 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.50.

6) TOL - Averaged short at 37.45 (2 mentions). Stop is now back at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 38.31.

7) SINA - Purchased at 42.53, at 45.31, and at 43.51. Averaged long at 43.783 (3 mentions. Stop loss is presently at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 42.91.

8) NFX - Covered shorts at 35.20. Averaged short at 38.94. Profit on the trade of $748 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

9) COF - Covered shorts at 90.64. Averaged short at 84.66. Loss on the trade of $1121 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

10) XOM - Averaged short at 85.933 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 85.35. Stock closed on Friday at 82.61.

11) PRAA - Shorted at 63.87. Stop loss is at 65.35. Stock closed on Friday at 63.31.

12) SINA - Purchased at 42.19. Liquidated at 42.22. Profit on the trade of $3 per 100 shares minus commissions.

11) VHC - Purchased at 4.17. Stop loss is at 3.65. Stock closed on Friday at 4.21.

12) SINA - Purchased at 42.53. Stop loss at 40.25. Stock closed on Friday at 45.79.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View
View Apr 12, 2015 Newsletter

View Apr 19, 2015 Newsletter

View Apr 26, 2015 Newsletter

View May 3, 2015 Newsletter

View May 10, 2015 Newsletter

View May 24, 2015 Newsletter

View May 31, 2015 Newsletter

View Jun 7, 2015 Newsletter

View Jun 14, 2015 Newsletter

View Jun 21, 2015 Newsletter

View Jun 28, 2014 Newsletter

View Jul 5, 2014 Newsletter

View Jul 12, 2015 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.