DOW Friday closing price - 18543

The DOW generated a positive reversal this past week, having made a new 2-week low and then turning around to close in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18543 will be seen this week. With the index closing just 27 points below the previous all-time high at 18570 that was made just 3 weeks ago and the other indexes all making new all-time high weekly closes, it does suggest the DOW will do the same next Friday.

More importantly, the DOW generated a low daily close at 18313 on Tuesday, followed by 3 higher closes on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, meaning that the previous all-time high daily close at 18312 that was made on May of last year has been tested successfully. As such, the probabilities strongly favor the index being on a new leg up on the uptrend that started in 2008 and heading up to the next psychological resistance area at 19000.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows minor to decent resistance at the previous all-time high at 18622, minor psychological resistance at 18700 and decent psychological resistance at 19000. On a daily closing basis, is very minor at 18570 and minor to perhaps decent at 18595. On a weekly closing basis, resistance is minor to perhaps decent at 18570.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent support at last week's low at 18247. Below that level there is psychological support at the 18000 demilitarized zone and then no support until the 17713 level is reached, which is now considered pivotal support. On a daily closing basis though, support is decent at 18313.

This past week was pivotal for the DOW given that 4 of the past 5 years there was a July-August swoon and 2 of those years (2013 and 2014) were eerily similar to what was happening this year and saw corrections of anywhere between 4.8% and 5.2%. Nonetheless, it is now highly unlikely that such a swoon will happen this year due to the positive reversal seen this week (off of positive economic reports) and the new all-time highs made in the other indexes.

The DOW is now likely to continue upward with 18700 as the minimum target but 19000 as the most probable target. In 2012 (the exception to the July-August swoon) the bulls were able to carry the index upward a total of 528 points above the July highs (a total of 2.6%) and that means that 19112 could be the target if the same thing happens now. By the same token, it does need to be mentioned that in 2012 it took the bulls 2 months (8 weeks) to achieve those additional 528 points and based on the overbought condition presently seen, it is likely that the same scenario will occur this year.

There are no economic reports of consequence due out for another 3 weeks and the next earnings quarter does not start until October, meaning that the bears are not likely to obtain any ammunition with which to turn the momentum around, especially now that on a pivotal week (last week) they failed. Probabilities favor the bulls for further upside but slowly.

SPX Friday closing price - 2182

The SPX generated an impressive week, given that a new all-time intra-week and weekly close highs were made and that the bulls did it with a very strong positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing not only above the previous week's high but also on new all-time high ground. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2182 is expected to be seen.

The SPX continued to be the strong index, given that unlike the DOW that tested the previous all-time high daily close on Tuesday and unlike the NASDAQ that just finished making a new all-time high daily and weekly closes, the bears were not even able to get the index down close to the previous all-time daily closing high at 2126, or even to the previous all-time intra-week high at 2134, having only gone down this past week on the dip seen in the indexes to 2147. As such, it is clearly evident that selling interest in financial stocks remains very low.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX show no resistance above as it is into new all-time highs. On a psychological basis though, the 2200 level (which has been an objective of many analysts this year) is likely to offer some resistance.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor to perhaps decent support at 2147. Below that level there is no support until minor to perhaps decent support at 2074. On a daily closing basis though, the previous all-time daily closing high at 2131 and previous all-time weekly closing high at 2126 will be considered support.

The SPX rallied an additional 5.5% above the July highs in 2012 (the year the July-August swoon did not happen). By the same token, the index was still trading "below" the previous all-time high that was made in March of that year, meaning that when a new all-time high was made the third week of August, the index likely rallied strongly based on stop loss short-covering. As such, to obtain a possible upside objective this year, the percentage amount of rally above the previous all-time high seen in 2012 (3.8%) will be used. In 2012 the previous all-time high was 1419 and the high reached the second week of September was 1474, meaning that using the 3.8% that the index rallied and using the previous all-time high at 2134 seen last year, it would suggest the upside objective of this rally will be 2215.

The SPX is the one index that could see some selling interest before the others do, given that the positive Jobs report might start to worry traders that in September the Fed might raise interest rates. After Brexit, the probabilities of the Fed raising interest rates in September was 0% but on Friday after the better than expected Jobs Report, the probability number of a Fed rate increase in September climbed to 22%.

Nonetheless, for now and probably for the next 4 weeks until the next Jobs report comes out and the next FOMC rate decision is made, the bulls in the SPX are likely to be in control. By the same token, like with all indexes the rate of climb is likely to be slow and somewhat limited. Probability favors the bulls.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5221

The NASDAQ made a new daily and weekly closing high on Friday, above the previous ones seen in July 2015 at 5218 and 5210, respectively. The all-time intra-week high at 5231 was not broken but with the index closing on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5227 expected to be seen, it is likely to happen this week.

The NASDAQ continues to be the strong index, having now generated a rally of 12.5% since the June low was set, compared to 9.1% and 9.3% in the other 2 indexes. In addition, the index has now produced 6 green weekly closes in a row, while the other 2 indexes have each shown 1 red weekly close during this same period of time. The leadership is likely to continue this coming week, given that the bulls cannot take "the pedal off the gas" until the index is sufficiently above the previous all-time high that a small correction to test the previous high can be made without giving a failure to follow through signal. Tech stocks remains hot, suggesting the strength will continue.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows decent resistance at the all-time high at 5234. Above that level there is no resistance. Nonetheless, the 5300 level might offer some "general" resistance as it represents the 300 point area above a major number like 5000.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will now show minor to perhaps decent support at last week's low at 5109. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5028 and minor again at 5002 but that is strengthened slightly with the psychological support at 5000. On a daily and weekly closing basis, the previous all-time high closes at 5218 and 5210 will now be considered minor but perhaps short-term pivotal support.

NASDAQ stocks all led the way this past week, with AMZN making another new all-time weekly closing high, GOOGL joining those ranks, NFLX erasing all the losses from the negative earnings report that came out a couple of weeks ago, PCLN also making a new 9-month high after a better than expected earnings report and now only 2.8% from a new all-time high as well, and AAPL giving a failure to follow through signal to the downside as it made a new 4-month high and closed above the previous low weekly close at 105.99 that caused the downtrend to occur. As such, there seems to be very little that can stop the index from continuing to lead the way up.

Given that the NASDAQ is likely to continue to be the leader and has outperformed the other indexes on a 4-3 basis over the past 2 months, it would suggest that if the other 2 indexes are likely to rally an additional 2.6% and 3.8% (see above) that the NASDAQ is likely to rally an additional 3.25% to as much as 4.75%, meaning upside objective could be anywhere from a low of 5396 to 5475.

The bulls continue to be committed to rallying the NASDAQ this coming week as they need to get the index high enough that when a pause or correction occurs it will only be back down to the previous all-time high.

Based mostly on a better than expected Jobs report, the bulls were able to emerge the winners on a week that was considered pivotal for at least the next month. The July-August swoon was negated as new highs were made this past week (August) and that suggests that like what was seen in 2012, the indexes will continue upward at least until the next Fed rate decision in the middle of September if not until the beginning of October when the seasonal tendency to correct once again asserts itself.

This coming week there are no economic or earnings reports that can be considered catalytic and the same can be said about economic reports out of Europe, given that they too made some short-term decisions over the past 10 days. As such, trading this week is likely to be all technical in nature and given that new all-time highs are being made, there are no established resistance levels above from where the bears could launch a concerted attack on the bulls. The bulls seem to be in total control.