Issue #490 ![]() Aug 14, 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Still in Control but Momentum Slowing Down!
DOW Friday closing price - 18576
The DOW made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18638 is the most likely scenario for this coming week.
On a negative note though, the DOW momentum has almost come to a stand-still, having generated weekly trading ranges of less than 187 points on 3 of the last 4 weeks (compared to 400+ on the 5 weeks prior) and a total appreciation in price of only 60 points above the high weekly close seen 6 weeks ago at 18516. In addition, the index generated an inside day on Friday and a red close, making Thursday's close at 18616 a double top using July 20th daily closing high at 18595. If follow through to the downside is seen on Monday (below Friday's low at 18535) and another red daily close occurs, the double top will have been confirmed.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows minor resistance at Thursday's 18638 high. Above that level, there is minor psychological resistance at 18700 and decent psychological resistance at 19000.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor but likely short-term pivotal support at 18468 and then minor to decent support at previous weeks low at 18247. Below that level there is psychological support at the 18000 demilitarized zone and then no support until the 17713 level is reached, which is now considered pivotal support. On a daily closing basis though, support is decent and now longer term pivotal at 18313.
The bulls are still in control in the DOW but the fact that the index has "only" gone above the previous month's high by 16 points in the 10 trading days of August, in spite of there being no chart obstacles above, is suggestive that the bulls may be running out of ammunition. If that is the case, this coming week will be short-term pivotal as a drop below last week's low at 18468 would be a failure to follow through and a sign that the bears have gained the edge.
Probabilities favor the bulls in the DOW, but slightly.
SPX Friday closing price - 2184
The SPX generated yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high, the 4th out of the last 5 weeks. The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2188 will be seen this week. By the same token, the index has only been able to gain 11 points (.005%) over the past 18 trading days (3 weeks) suggesting that the buying interest is waning and that further upside will not be easy to achieve.
Nonetheless and in spite of the minimal gain seen the past 3 weeks, the SPX chart is still strongly positive, especially given the fact that the most recent breakout above the previous all-time high daily close at 2175 was tested successfully this past week with a red close on Wednesday at 2175 followed by 2 higher closes. As such and unlike the DOW chart and the potential for a double top, the SPX does not yet offer any signs that a top may have been found.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX show very minor resistance at last week's high at 2188. On a psychological basis though, the 2200 level (which has been an objective of many analysts this year) is likely to offer some resistance.
To the downside and on both an intra-week and daily closing basis, the SPX now shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2175. Further minor to perhaps decent support is found at 2147. Below that level there is no support until minor to perhaps decent support is found at 2074.
The SPX rallied an additional 5.5% above the July highs in 2012 (the year the July-August swoon did not happen). By the same token, the index was still trading "below" the previous all-time high that was made in March of that year, meaning that when a new all-time high was made the third week of August, the index likely rallied strongly based on stop loss short-covering. As such, to obtain a possible upside objective this year, the percentage amount of rally above the previous all-time high seen in 2012 (3.8%) will be used. In 2012 the previous all-time high was 1419 and the high reached the second week of September was 1474, meaning that using the 3.8% that the index rallied and using the previous all-time high at 2134 seen last year, it would suggest the upside objective of this rally will be 2215.
The SPX bulls need to keep the uptrend moving forward, even if it is inches by inches. Having generated a successful retest this past week of the breakout above 2175, a break below last week's low at 2172 in conjunction with a daily close below 2175 would be disappointing and likely generate some selling interest. As such, all the bulls need to do this week is go above 2188 and stay above 2172. Probabilities favor the bulls.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5221
The NASDAQ confirmed the previous week's new all-time weekly closing high with another green close as well as a new all-time intra-week high, having gone above the previous one at 5231 with a rally this past week to 5236. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above 5236 is expected to be seen.
By the same token, the NASDAQ did not see the kind of follow through that was decisive and is still in the range where a double top could be built on all charts (intra-week, daily and weekly close), meaning that the bulls are still totally committed to higher prices this week.
It is important to note though, that the NASDAQ has now generated 7 green weekly closes in a row and that has not happened for the past 6 years (since 2010). In the last 10 years there have only been 2 occasions where more than 7 green closes in a row occurred and they were in 2009 and 2010 where 9 and 8 green closes in a row respectively were seen but on those 2 occasions the index was "recovering" from the recession of 2008. With this being such a pivotal week and the bulls being committed to more upside (cannot slip up), generating another green close is a big task.
It is evident that last week's high and low (5236 and 5193) will be important to the traders in the NASDAQ this week, especially with no catalytic economic reports scheduled that could generate a reversal thereafter. As such, the week will pivot around those 2 levels that seem to be strongly pivotal this week.
Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ.
The bulls continue to be in control of the index market but the pace of appreciation narrowed significantly this past week, suggesting that it is getting harder for the bulls to stimulate buying interest. There are no economic reports scheduled for this week that have any catalytic power, meaning that there seems to be nothing on the economic horizon that can derail the rally. Nonetheless, such a scenario also means that the bulls cannot let "the ball drop" as any weakness this coming week could generate some strong negative chart formations, especially in the DOW and the NASDAQ.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no new mentions as the market is almost at a standstill and movement this week is likely to be minimal. In addition, all mentions last week were filled, meaning that the portfolio should be full at this time.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA continued to "spin its wheels" having traded once again within the 26 point trading range between 1.56 and 1.82 that has been seen for the past 7 weeks. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the company reported earnings on Tuesday and they were slightly lower than anticipated but the bears were unable to make anything happen and the stock ended up closing the week exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bears will need additional negatives to break support. Resistance is found at 1.82 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 1.78. Support is found at 1.56 that if broken would suggest the multi-year low at 1.30 would be tested. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLB bears were unable to follow through on the previous week's break of intra-week support at 113.12, having gone above the previous week's high. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to generate a green weekly close and did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 115.00 will be seen this week. If that happens but the recent low at 112.60 is not broken, it will be seen as a required and needed retest of that low, which in turn would likely bring in a lot of new buying, especially considering that oil prices are no longer dropping. Minor support is found at 114.79, decent at 113.12 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 112.60. Important daily close support is found at 113.49 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 114.00. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 115.72 and at 117.09 and then a bit stronger between 118.87 and 119.02. Pivotal mid-term resistance is found at 119.89. Probabilities favor the bulls though the stock should head lower at the beginning of the week. EBAY generated the first red close in the last 7 weeks, suggesting the rally is on pause to get rid of the overbought condition. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 30.89 is expected to be seen. By the same token and on a positive note, the stock seems to be in the process of building a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 22.30 to 31.79 and the flag the trading range seen the past 2 weeks with a 30.69 low that could be extended down to the $30 demilitarized zone without negating the flag. A break above the top of the flag would offer a $40 objective. Short-term pivotal support is found at 30.74 that if broken would suggest the $30 demilitarized zone will be seen. Probabilities favor the bears this week but longer term the bulls are in control. ENG generated an inside week and no follow through to the downside after the stock closed on the lows of the week the previous week after a disappointing earnings report. The stock closes slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range but that doesn't really mean much as the bears were unable to generate any follow through the previous week. Intra-week support remains at 1.07 and resistance at 1.58 and with the stock closing at 1.30 on Friday, it does suggest that the traders will need additional information to break either level. By the same token, the bulls did accomplish a break of resistance prior to the earnings report, meaning the probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FCEL did see a "mini" pop this past week, suggesting the selling interest seen the past 2 weeks from the negative earnings report has dissipated. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to generate enough buying to make a statement and the stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.15 is likely to be seen. The $5 demilitarized zone has to be considered strong support and unlikely to be broken after this past week's action. By the same token, it is evident the bulls do not have much ammunition with which to launch any kind of a rally, meaning that more sideways trading is likely to be seen until a new catalyst is found. Pivotal resistance is found at 5.60 that if broken would suggest the worst is over and that a base from which to launch a rally will have been built. Support is decent between 4.98 and 5.02. Probabilities do not favor either side this week. FSLR generated a new 3-year intra-week and weekly closing low after a strongly negative earnings report came in on one of the other Solar companies (SPWR). The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 36.83 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, decent to perhaps strong and certainly long-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 35.59 (36.72 on a weekly closing basis) that is highly unlikely to get broken as it would mean that the Solar industry is back to the doldrums that were seen between 2011 and 2013. The daily chart did generate a bounce on Thursday and a drop below Thursday's low on Friday, meaning that if the bulls are able to rally above Friday's highs at 39.12 that a successful retest of the 36.82 low will have occurred. Very minor intra-week resistance is found at 39.70 and a bit stronger at 40.50, which is where the gap between 40.50 and 41.62 is found. On a daily and weekly closing basis, the 40.72-40.81 level is now short-term pivotal as a close above that level would give a failure to follow through signal to the bears. Though probabilities favor the bears this week, the longer term outlook at this price has to be considered a "bargain buy". GS made a new 13-week intra-week and weekly closing high this past week but closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for some selling interest to occur. The 200-day MA, currently at 163.00, has been a difficult level to break convincingly, given that the stock traded up to the line every day this past week without closing above it in a manner that would suggest the bulls will be able to generate further upside without help from the indexes. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 155.37 to 164.57 and the flag being the trading range down to 161.93 seen the past 5 days. A break above 164.57 would offer a 170.23 objective. By the same token, support is not found until 159.22 and there is an open gap between 158.90 and 159.20 that should be closed at some point, meaning that even though the chart favors the bulls there are still quite a few scenarios that could favor the bears at this time. Probabilities favor the bulls and if the recent high at 164.57 is broken, covering of the short positions would be a must. HAL went above the previous week's high but then turned around to close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 43.65 will be seen. If that occurs, last week's high at 45.05 will become the needed/required retest of the double top at 46.69/46.48, which in turn would suggest the stock would get some new selling interest with the 42.47 level as the immediate objective. Longer term, the stock remains in a bearish pattern, given that it is still trading below the 200-week MA in spite of the new all-time highs made in the indexes. Pivotal support is found at 41.48/41.70 and pivotal resistance at 46.48/46.69. For the time being, it seems likely the stock will continue trading within that trading range. INTC generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high by 4 points and the turning down to close in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 34.44 will be seen this week. The red weekly close also generated another successful retest of the decent to perhaps strong weekly close resistance at 35.00. In addition, the stock generated a "small" sell signal, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 34.66. Important and short-term pivotal support is found between 33.81 and 33.97 that if broken would suggest a drop down to 31.93 will be seen. Resistance is found at 35.66 and 35.93. Probabilities favor the bears. MT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 10-month intra-week high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.98 will be seen this week. Minor intra-week support is found at 5.41 and minor to decent, as well as pivotal, at 5.33. On a daily closing basis though, support is somewhat pivotal at 6.02. If the stock generates 2 daily closes in a row below that level, the recent uptrend will be truncated and the stock will likely trade sideways for a few weeks. Minor resistance is found at 6.12/6.14 and minor to decent and likely pivotal at 6.55. Probabilities do not favor either side this week. XOM generated a green weekly close, suggesting the recent selling due to the lower than expected earnings report is waning. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 88.89 is expected to be seen. Intra-week resistance is minor to decent at 90.09 and then nothing until minor again at 91.93. The stock does have a runaway gap between 89.01 and 89.61 that if closed would take away a lot of the selling interest as the breakaway gap between 93.62 and 93.72 would become a target. Oil is moving up and will support the stock. Intra-week support is found at 87.23 and then pivotal at 86.01. It is important to note that the 200-week MA is currently at 89.40 and if the bulls are able to close above that line next Friday, especially if the gap at 89.61 is closed, the bulls will see that as a positive statement and likely get on board.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .433 (new price 5.20). 2) FCEL - Purchased at 5.27. Stop loss at 4.95. Stock closed on Friday at 5.20. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.30. 4) EBAY - Purchased at 30.96. Stop loss at 29.65. Stock closed on Friday at 30.89. 5) INTC - Shorted at 34.78. Stop loss now at 36.03. Stock closed on Friday at 34.57. 6) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.67. 7) MT - Purchased at 6.07. Averaged long at 5.57 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.23. Stock closed on Friday at 6.02. 8) HAL - Averaged short at 44.505 (2 mentions).Stop loss at 46.79. Stock closed on Friday at 43.84. 9) FSLR - Purchased at 37.07. Averaged long at 44.87 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 38.79. 10) LNG - Purchased at 42.01. Stop loss at 38.65. Stock closed on Friday at 42.99. 11) GS - Averaged short at 142.986 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 163.25. 12) CLB - Purchased at 115.64. Stop loss now at 112.50. Stock closed on Friday at 115.23. 13) XOM - Purchased at 86.02. Stop loss now at 85.65. Stock closed on Friday at 87.85. 14) GS - Shorted at 163.88. Covered shorts at 164.21. Loss on the trade of $33 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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