Issue #497 ![]() Oct, 2 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Signals Continue, Yo-Yo Type Action. Decisive Week Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 18308
The DOW has been generating yo-yo type action since September 9th (16 trading days), having produced 8 green daily closes and 8 red daily closes and "all" within a 457 trading point range between 17992 and 18449 and all with no more than 2 days in a row in either direction. It is certainly evident that there is no trend at this time and that the traders are simply "trading the range" while waiting for some catalyst to occur.
By the same token, it is evident that the bears still have the edge in the DOW chart, given that a failure to follow through signal was given on September 9th when the index closed below the previous all-time daily closing high at 18312 (seen in May 2015) and since then the bulls have been unable to confirm any of the 3 closes above that level (18325, 18392, and 18339) with 2 closes in a row, meaning that the probabilities continue to favor a downside resolution.
The DOW did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 18369 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the rally on Friday was based on reports that the U.S Justice Department was near an agreement with the German Deutsche Bank to impose a $5.4 billion settlement on the residential mortgage backed securities fiasco, which was less than half of the original $14 billion that was requested previously. As such, the rally was mostly about less negatives rather than more positives and as such, not a dependable source for further upside. In addition, this news item had not been the cause for previous weakness, suggesting that if the settlement is confirmed, it won't necessarily add to the rally this coming week, but if not confirmed would weaken the index again.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW will now show minor to perhaps decent but certainly short-term pivotal resistance at 18449. Above that level, resistance is found at 18552 that if broken would suggest the all-time high at 18688 will be seen and likely broken.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 18247, minor to decent at 18091 and at 18052 and decent and definitely pivotal support at 17992. Below that level, there is very minor support at 17855 and minor but also short-term pivotal at 17713. Below that level, there is no support until minor to decent support is found between 17331 and 17476.
The DOW could be facing a pivotal fundamental week, inasmuch as the 2 most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs) are scheduled for this week. By the same token, the bulls are likely to have a difficult task with the reports, inasmuch as lower than expected numbers will mean the economy is shrinking and facing a possible onset of recession while positive reports will increase the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in November or December. As such, it is possible the bulls are facing a no-win situation.
On a positive note for the traders of the DOW, the chart parameters are clearly established due to the yo-yo action seen the past 16 trading days. A break above 18449 or below 17992 is highly likely to see follow through action in whatever direction those levels are broken. The bears remain with the probability numbers on their side.
On a last note, the September to October seasonal correction remains a big question mark as to whether it will occur (like it has occurred the past 4 years) or whether it will not occur (like the July-August seasonal correction did not occur this year). Certainly the fact that September is now over does reduce the probabilities as the correction in 2013 and 2014 both began in mid-September. By the same token, in 2012 the correction began the first week of October and the index fell 8.8% in the following 6 weeks, still suggesting that the door is open for a fall and that the fall would probably take the DOW down to 16970 if the seasonal correction occurs and the same percentage fall is seen.
SPX Friday closing price - 2168
The SPX generated an inside week (higher lows and lower highs), meaning that nothing was decided or cleared up this past week. By the same token, the index has built a "coil" formation over the past 7 trading sessions with each high daily close being lower than the previous one and each low daily close being higher than the previous one and the coil does suggest that something will happen this week as the coil is down to a 20 point trading range. Such a coil offers a 31 point objective depending on which side gets broken. A daily close above 2171 would offer a 2202 daily close objective and a close below 2151 will offer a 2121 daily close objective.
The SPX did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2175 is expected to be seen. By the same token and as long as the 4-week high at 2179 (2177 on a daily closing basis) does not get broken, the index will remain in a sideways trend.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will show minor to perhaps decent but likely pivotal resistance at last week's high at 2179. Above that level, decent resistance is found at 2187 and strong at 2193.
To the downside and on an intra-week and daily closing basis, minor support is found at 2147, at 2145 and at 2141. Below that level there is decent and longer-term pivotal support at 2119.
The SPX remains with a positive bias inasmuch as the index has continued to close above the previous all-time high weekly close at 2126 for the past 13 weeks. Nonetheless, it has now been 4 weeks since that level was successfully tested with a 2127 close on September 14th and yet the bulls have been unable to re-start the uptrend and make new highs. If the bulls are unable to generate the buying interest they need this week, especially after the important economic reports are released, it is likely the same correction as seen in 2012 will occur. That year, the index started the correction the first week of October and turned back up the second week of November, having seen an 8.7% correction. If the correction does start this week and same percentage drop occurs, it will offer a 1989 objective.
Though the recent high in the SPX at 2179 and the recent low at 2119 are clearly established as important pivot points, the coil formation does suggest that a daily close above 2171 or below 2151 will give the bulls or bears additional ammunition to keep the index heading in that direction. Probabilities favor the bulls.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5312
The NASDAQ made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5325 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index generated an inside week and did not make a new all-time intra-week high (fell short by 17 points), meaning that the door is still open for failure if the bulls cannot get above 5342.
The NASDAQ, like the SPX, has also built a coil formation over the last 7 days that suggests that a daily close above 5318 will offer a 5421 objective and a daily close below 5269 will offer a 5175 objective. With the index having closed on Friday at 5312, the probabilities do favor the bulls.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show some minor resistance at the all-time high 5342. Above that level there is no resistance.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent and certainly short-term pivotal support at 5251. Below that level, minor to decent support will be found between 5187 and 5199. Further and decent support is found between 5097 and 5109. On a daily closing basis though, any close below 5257 would generate a sell signal.
The NASDAQ remains strong, considering that AMZN and PCLN made new all-time intra-week and weekly closing highs this past week. Nonetheless, GOOGL (a stock that made a new intra-week and weekly closing high the previous week) failed to go higher and actually gave a small failure signal on the weekly closing chart on Friday, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 807.05 seen 9 weeks ago. As such, questions still remain as to whether the index will continue higher or fail at this level.
As far as the seasonal September-October correction, the NASDAQ in 2012 made its high the third week of September and then fell 12.1% over the next 9 weeks. The last week of September (the following week after the high was made), the index rallied to within 20 points of the previous week's high but failed to get above it. The following week, the index rallied up to the previous week's high but failed to get above it and the index then started the correction. The high last week was 5325, which is 17 points from the all-time high at 5342, and if the index fails to make a new all-time high this week, especially if last week's high at 5325 does not get broken, the action seen will mimic the action seen in 2012 and increase the probabilities of the index starting a correction.
As such, the traders are likely to follow closely the action in the NASDAQ, especially since the bulls have the upper hand after last week's rally and close only 30 points below the all-time high. The key level of support to watch is Friday's low at 5277. A break of that level on Monday would be a strong indication that the index is heading lower. Probabilities favor the bulls.
The indexes continued to give mixed signals with the DOW still unable to negate the failure to follow through signal given 4 weeks ago but the SPX and NAZ continuing to trade above their previous all-time weekly closing highs, needing only a small budge to make new all-time highs. The dichotomy being seen is preventing the traders from unifying in one direction or the other.
This week the traders will get some fundamental help, with the ISM Index coming out on Monday and the Jobs report on Friday. By the same token, the present situation suggests that the bulls are in a no-win situation, given that better than expected reports will increase the chances of the Fed raising interest rates before the end of the year and as such, making it difficult for the traders to buy into, and lower than expected reports will likely keep prevent an interest rate hike but will suggest a recession is starting.
Oil prices and the Deutsche Bank penalties will also be possible catalysts. By the same token, the agreement in OPEC to cut production by a minimal amount did not cause resistance levels to break, suggesting that more is needed and that cannot happen until the next meeting in November. The speculation that the penalty fees for Deutsche Bank will be lower than anticipated previously did generate a rally in the indexes on Friday, but no break of resistances occurred, meaning that the probabilities are high that there will be no "additional" gains even if the lower fees are confirmed.
Last but not least, the seasonal September-October correction outlook did suffer some setbacks as September is now over and 2 of the last 4 corrections did start in September. Nonetheless, in 2012 the correction started the first week of October, meaning that the door remains open (though not as open as before) for it to happen. With all the important economic reports coming out this week and all the news likely to be finalized this week, there is a high probability that this coming week will be a short-term decisive decision week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions in the newsletter this week because of the yo-yo type action seen the past 2 weeks, meaning that all stocks seem to be heading nowhere at this time. Nonetheless, this is a short-term decisive week because of the important economic reports due out, as well as the fact that the recent news that has caused much of the up and down action is likely now "baked" into the price and movement this week is likely to see follow through.
As such, as soon as direction is seen, which could be as early as Monday after the ISM Index report comes out, I will give mentions on the message board.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2016, as of 9/1 Loss of $5186 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
CLB (long) $20
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $20 Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
ADSK (short) $98
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
XOM (long) $553 Total Loss for September, per 100 shares, including commissions $2238 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/31
HON (short) $100
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
FSLR (long) $668 Total $2482 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/31
ADSK (short) $274
COG (short) $105 GOOGL (800 put option) $110 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close. NONE Total $489 Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $225
Status of account/portfolio for 2016, as of 9/31Loss of $5411 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ADSK made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high this past week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.62 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock generated a red daily close on Friday and a close on the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside below Friday's low at 71.53. The stock did break out of a bullish flag formation when it got above the previous all-time high at 69.21 (68.87 on a daily closing basis) and if the stock gets back down to that level, and especially if it closes below 68.87, the flag will be negated and a failure signal given. The flag objective is 84.45 to be reached within 9 weeks. Given that the objective seems a bit unrealistic at this time and that the indexes could be entering a seasonal correction period, the possibilities are decent that a failure signal will be given. Minor resistance is found at 72.62 and "general resistance" is found at 73.00-73.30. Pivotal support is found at 65.06. For right now, the bulls have the edge.
ADSK made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high this past week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 72.80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has now spent 7 days trading sideways between 70.59 and 72.80 (a $2.21 trading range), suggesting the buying interest has ebbed as the previous 6 days before that the stock traded from 65.06 to 72.62 (a $7.56 rally). There is no resistance above since the stock is into new all-time highs but there is "general" resistance at $73, since it represents the $3 above an even level such as $70 is. The stock made the new high on Wednesday but suffered the same yo-yo type action on Thursday and Friday, suggesting the stock is likely to react to whatever the indexes do this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 70.59 and then at the previous all-time high daily and weekly close at 68.87. Probabilities favor the bulls but not in a strong way as the stock is at the most overbought condition seen since February 2013. ARNA generated an inside week (lower highs and higher lows than the previous week) and closed 1 point above the previous week's close, suggesting that it was mostly a "throwaway" week. On a positive note though, the stock has now closed 9 days in a row above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.70, having beaten the previous break seen in June by 1 day (last time the stock stayed above the line for 8 days in a row). This is also the second time a break of the line has occurred in the last 15 months and that is considered a positive as it gives the bulls the edge. The intra-week resistance remains at 1.83, which is a level that has been seen 4 times over the past 15 weeks but not broken. Support is now found between 1.70 and 1.71. Probabilities favor the bulls. COF remained for the 5th week in a row stuck in a $3 trading range between 69.70 and 72.70 but that does represent a strong long-term resistance level, given that the 200-week MA is currently at 72.60. It is evident the bulls need some help to break the line, either from the indexes resuming the uptrend of the company reporting earnings, which are not due out until October 20th. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 72.19 is likely to be seen. Resistance is found at 72.22, at 72.43 and decent as well as likely pivotal at the recent high at 72.77. Support is not found until the $70 demilitarized zone is reached. Probabilities still slightly favor the bears. EBAY generated a new 15-month intra-week and weekly closing high this past week and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 33.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is getting close to a level of resistance between 33.90 and 35.35, seen between February and October 2011, that seems impossible to break without help from the indexes or from the earnings report due out October 19th. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits if the stock gets above 33.89. Intra-week support is pivotal at 31.23 but now with the breakout, any daily close below 32.70 would be considered a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG generated a red week, suggesting that the traders are in the process of testing the breakout to see the validity of it. The stock did get back down near the 200-week MA, currently at 1.43, but did not break it, meaning that so far the retest of the breakout is successful, especially since the stock rallied back up enough to close above the previous high weekly close at 1.48. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 1.44 will be seen this week but if the stock gets down to the line next week but does not break it and then rallies to close above 1.48 and in the upper half of the week's trading range or goes above last week's high at 1.65 this week, the retest of the breakout will be successful and new buying will likely appear. Short-term pivotal support is found at 1.40 and resistance at 1.72. Probabilities favor the bulls. FCEL generated a second green weekly close in a row and it does need to be mentioned since it is the "first" time it has happened in the last 18 weeks. By the same token, the bulls did not accomplish breaking any resistance levels, meaning the double green weekly closes are nice but not necessarily indicative of any changes to the sideways trend presently in place. Very minor intra-week resistance is found at 5.51 and minor at 5.60. Support is minor at 5.20 and a bit stronger between 4.98 and 5.02. Probabilities though, now slightly favor the bulls. FSLR confirmed the previous week's negation of the weekly close break of support at 36.72 with a second green weekly close above that level, suggesting that the downtrend is now over. The stock has now rallied 16.4% from the lows over the past 2 weeks and if the stock can get above $42, the downtrend will be "officially" over as a 20% rally from the lows will have occurred. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 40.33 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the bulls are likely to run into important resistance this week as the important weekly close support level at 40.72, that when broken caused the stock to fall to 33.74, is likely to be "in play" this week. In addition, the gap between 41.62 and 40.50 that got created when the stock was downgraded will be "in play" as well and that is also considered pivotal resistance on an intra-week basis. The chart suggests the bulls will not be successful at this time in closing the gap or negative the 40.72 weekly close break and that the stock will likely trade between 36.70 and 40.70 for the next few weeks. Nonetheless, closure of the gap and a close next Friday above 40.72 would be a short-term game changer. GOOGL made a new all-time high 10 weeks ago, both intra-week and on a weekly closing basis, but the bulls have failed to generate the kind of follow through such a break should have engendered, having appreciated less than 1% over the past 8 weeks on both the intra-week and weekly closing chart. The lack of strong follow through does suggest that "tiredness" is being seen and that further upside will require additional fundamental help. The company reports earnings on October 20th. The stock generated an inside week but with a red close and near the lows of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 800.45 will be seen this week. Minor support is found at 800.00, a bit stronger at 786.33 and decent as well as pivotal at 783.50. Stock has remained range bound between $785 and $815 for the past 46 trading days (2 months) and is likely to require a catalyst to break out of that trading range. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls. GS gapped down on Monday between 165.05 and 163.97 and generating what could end up being a strongly bearish island formation with the stock having gapped up between 163.37 and 163.80 on August 15th, which makes the other side of the island gap. The gap down opening caused the stock to make a new 6-week low, having broken the support built at 164.50 that had been retested successful on 2 previous occasions. The gap was successfully tested on Thursday with a 163.96 high, followed by a negative reversal day and a retest of the 8-week low at 155.37 with a 157.77 low and an intra-day break of the 200-day MA, currently at 159.10. Thursday's close at 158.95 is now considered a successful retest of the MA line, given that the stock closed in the green on Friday. Resistance is now considered decent as well as pivotal at 164.06, given that encompasses both the recent high at 163.96, the gap, and a previous intra-week high of consequence from July at 164.06. On a daily closing basis, resistance is pivotal at 163.45. By the same token, daily close support is equally pivotal as 158.95. It is likely that the stock will follow what the indexes do but based on the chart of the stock, the stop loss needs to be lowered to 164.35 and any rally up above 163.70 should be used to add short positions. HON extended the recent rally, having generated another green weekly close on Friday. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to close above the weekly close resistance at 116.75 (closed at 116.59), meaning that it will all be about a red or green weekly close next Friday. By the same token, the stock generated a negative reversal day on Thursday, having gone up to the 15-week intra-week resistance at 117.75 with a rally up to 117.72 and then closing in the red, suggesting that the bulls will need help either from the indexes heading higher or from the earnings report that comes out October 21st. Short-term pivotal support is found at 115.22 and double intra-week high resistance is found at 117.75. It is important to note that the chart now shows an inverted Head & Shoulders formation that if broken (a rally above 117.75) would offer a 122.97 objective. By the same token, the H&S formation could still generate a drop all the way down to 112.70 and remain viable, though the objective in that case would change to 120.35 if the neckline is broken. Probabilities slightly favor the bears for a short-term drop in price but the stock is still dependent on what the indexes do. KGC remains stuck in a 5-week sideways trading pattern between 3.93 and 4.62, having generated an inside week with a 4.39 high and a 4.12 low. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of the stock going below last week's low than above last week's high but the longer term outlook remains unanswered. By the same token, the stock continues to build what can be considered a bearish inverted flag formation, with the flagpole being the drop from 5.56 to 3.93 and the flag being the 5-week trading range mentioned above. A break of the bottom of the flag at 3.93 would offer a 2.99 objective. On a positive note though, the bears have been unable to break the 200-week MA, currently at 4.18, in a convincing manner as the stock has closed above the line on 3 occasions over the past 6 weeks and closed above the line the last 2 weeks. As such, the bearish formation needs to be seen with skeptical eyes. It is evident though, that a break above 4.62 or below 3.93 will be indicative but until then it is almost a flip of a coin. MT remains in a general sideways trading range but with a negative bias on the weekly closing chart, given that the stock has generated 7 red weekly closes out of the last 9 weeks. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the stock has stayed above the pivotal $6 level 80% of the time over the past 9 weeks, having generated 40 closes above the line and 10 closes below the line during the past 50 trading sessions, suggesting that a positive bias exists on the daily closing chart. The daily closing chart suggests that a daily close below 5.43 or above 6.29 will determine direction. By the same token, with the stock being in an uptrend February, the probabilities favor the bulls. SINA generated a sell signal this past week, having closed below both the 5-week low weekly close at 75.12 and below the 5-week low daily close at 73.96. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 72.42 is expected to be seen. By the same token, the 72.42 low also represents a double low when using the 72.76 low seen on September 12th, meaning that it will not be easy for the bears to break that support, especially considering that the stock bounced up to 78.22 right after the 72.42 low was made. On a negative note though, the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 85.24 to 72.42 and the flag the trading range up to 79.30. A break below 72.42 would offer an objective of 66.48. Resistance is found at 76.67, at 78.22 and at 79.30 and support at 72.76, at 72.42, at 72.20 and at 69.29. Probabilities favor the bears.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .451 (new price 5.42). 2) FCEL - Purchased at 5.27. Stop loss now at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.42. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.51. 4) EBAY - Averaged long at 31.66 (2 mentions) Stop loss now at 31.14. Stock closed on Friday at 32.90. 5) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.75. 6) MT - Averaged long at 5.57 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.23. Stock closed on Friday at 6.04. 7) FSLR - Averaged long at 44.87 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 33.64. Stock closed on Friday at 39.49. 8) LNG - Liquidated at 42.33. Averaged long at 42.99. Loss on the trade of $132 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 9) GS - Shorted at 169.07. Stop loss now at 164.35. Stock closed on Friday at 161.27. 10) HON - Shorted at 117.77 and at 116.41. Averaged short at 117.09. Stop loss at 117.85. Stock closed on Friday at 116.49. 11) COF - Shorted at 71.03 and at 71.58. Averaged short at 71.305 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 73.35. Stock closed on Friday at 71.83. 12) SINA - Shorted at 75.77 and at 77.94. Averaged short at 76.855. Stop loss at 79.40 Stock closed on Friday at 73.83. 13) GOOGL - Purchased 800 October 21st Put option at $10.50. Option closed at 9.40 on Friday. 14) ADSK - Averaged short at 70.96. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 72.33.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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