Issue #847
February 4, 2024 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls buck odds and make new all-time highs. They are presently in control.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 38654
SPX Friday Closing Price - 4958
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 17642
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1962

Once again and again with the exception of the RUT, all indexes made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs this week. They did it in an impressive fashion as the DOW did in in a spike up way, the SPX did it with a positive reversal and a spike, and the NASDAQ generated its new all-time high with a positive reversal week and a rally of 3.4% from the low to the high of the week. All 3 indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 38783, the SPX at 4975 and the NASDAQ at 17682) will be seen this week. The RUT did not participate in this rally, as it did almost the opposite of the other indexes, given that it generated a "negative" reversal week (went above the previous week's high and below last week's low) and closed red and in the lower half of the week's trading range.

The dichotomy in the index market this week, with the all the indexes outperforming the RUT has to be seen as an overall negative to the market, given that the market is being driven by a few elite stocks and not an overall rally. In addition, many stocks of importance (INTC and TSLA for example) reported negative earnings and are trading lower. Even stocks that reported better than expected earnings (GOOGL and AAPL for example) closed lower this week. Many other stocks (not necessarily in the RUT), are languishing or have already given sell signals.

To finish it off, the news this past week provided one negative that negates one of the recent main drivers-to-the-upside in the market. It was expected that the Fed would start lowering interest rates starting in March. Nonetheless, the still growing economy and inflation not decreasing any further, means that the Fed will keep interest rates high for the near term and that should have been seen as a negative. This is especially true since it has been widely expected that earnings and growth of the economy will be lower for the next 2 earnings quarters. What this all means, especially considering that the market is usually predicting prices for 6-9 months in advance, is that this rally is overdone and overpriced at this time. Having said that, the action seen this past week does not suggest any of that is presently in the minds of the traders.

So what can be expected now? To begin with, there are no possibly catalytic reports due out this week, meaning there is nothing scheduled that could generate selling interest. This means higher prices is what is likely to happen. If that does not happen, the traders will begin to take notice and likely start to take profits. Evidently, any daily close below the previous all-time high daily closes would generate a failure signal that would likely trigger new selling interest. In the DOW it would be a daily close below 37715, in the SPX that would be below 4781, and in the NASDAQ that would be below 17596. The NAZ is the closest one and therefore the index to watch. In the DOW and the SPX though, they have both generated a daily close support level close by that if broken, would likely trigger profit taking. Those levels are at 38150 and 4924 respectively.

One other thing to watch this week is the 5000 level in the SPX. That is a strong psychological resistance, meaning that further positive news is needed to break above that demilitarized zone (up to 5030).

Nonetheless, at this time, it has to be expected that further upside will be seen this week. Anything unexpected will be something to take note of.


GOLD generated a chart building week in which neither the bulls nor the bears were able to define what is going to happen. Gold did generate a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close at $2024, having closed at $2029 the previous week and then on Friday at $2055. By the same token a previous intraweek high at $2085 was also likely successfully retested with last week's high at $2083 and then closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at $2037 than not. It was not a defining week but it is one that suggests that Gold is leaning toward the downside more than the upside, especially considering that it traded above the all-time high weekly close at $2072 all day on Thursday and opened up the day above the level on Friday, and then gave it all up after the Jobs report came out. Having said that, on an intraweek basis, Gold still has a wide trading range between $2004 and $2098 to trade within without giving a clear advantage to one side or the other. At this time though and after last week's action, the bears have a small edge this week.

OIL generated a negative weekly reversal, having made a new 9-week high and then closing below the previous week's low, and in the process generating a new sell signal, having closed below the most recent low weekly close support at 72.68 (closed on Friday at 72.47). This all came about because of the "weak economic outlook and high U.S. supply" that was reported this past week. Simply stated, the rally that started 3 weeks ago has gone "poof". Now, the bulls are on the defensive with an intraweek drop down to 70.11 a high probability and then with only 3 intraweek levels of support below 70.11 that the bulls need to hold to prevent a total breakdown (at 69.28 - weaken the chart further, at 67.72 - give short-term control to the bears, and at 63.70 - pivotal support that if broken would offer a $43 objective). As far as to the upside, daily close resistance will now be found at 73.81 and at 75.57. A close above the former will take some ammunition away from the bears and a close above the latter will negate the signals given this week. The monthly chart does suggest that Oil will drop down close to the 67.72 level in February and then move thereafter off of the fundamental picture.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The index market is overbought and most of the important reports are out and now heading into was is generally the second biggest seasonal down month of the year. As such, the mentions given this week are sales. By the same token, the Chinese market seasonally goes up in February and it is oversold, meaning that consideration should be given to adding positions to the existing held Chinese stocks (JD, SIMO, and ZLAB).

MENTIONS

CALM - Friday Closing Price - 56.94

CALM is an egg producing company that 13 months ago (during the high inflation period) made a new all-time intraweek high at 65.32. Nonetheless, the stock did not make a new all-time monthly closing high until March of last year and immediately the month after, that new all-time high was negated and a fall of 30% occurred during the following 6 months. In October the stock started a new rally that has now taken it from a low of 42.25 to December's high at 57.95. The stock closed on the high of the month in December but the bulls were unable to get above that level in January as the high so far this month has been 57.45 and it closed at 55.42 at the end of the month. This likely means that the rally has run its course. With inflation heading down and now the stock likely to show a required/needed retest of the all-time high (which has not occurred during the past 10 months, it does suggest the stock is a strong sell now.

CALM did close near the high of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 56.94 is expected to be seen this week. There is established intraweek resistance between 57.49 and 57.75 that might be reached but unlikely to be broken. If the recent high at 57.95 is broken, a rally up to the $60 would then ensure. Evidently if the stock fails to break above the former, it would be a clear signal that the bulls have run out of ammunition but even if they are able to break that level, the $60 level seems like an unbreakable resistance at this time, based on the charts and the fundamentals.

To the downside and below the recent low at 53.38. there is support at 52.23 but if the recent high is not broken and a successful retest of the high on the monthly chart occurs, that level is highly likely to get broken and a drop down to $50 level will be seen. That is the main objective of the sell mention "but" if all of the above occurs (as seen on the monthly chart), that would suggest a drop down to the $44 to $47 level would be seen within the next 2-3 months.

Sales of CALM at 57.39 or higher and using a stop at 60.35 and having a $47 objective, offers a 3.5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

TOL Friday Closing Price - 100.17

TOL has continued to show an overall negative outlook, given that for the past 7 weeks, every rally has fallen short of the previous high, in spite of the new all-time highs made in the index market. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range on Friday, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 101.98 than going below last week's low at 97.96. Nonetheless, for the bulls to accomplish anything of consequence to the upside, they would need to go above the most recent intraweek high at 103.30. This means that this week is an opportunity to short the stock with a clear and well-defined stop loss that offers a great risk/reward ratio though perhaps a lower probability number that would be seen under different circumstances (such as the fact the indexes are on new all-time highs with no resistance above.

The downside target it the same as it was the last time I put in a sell mention that was not instituted as the stock did not reach the desired entry point. The downside target is the previous all-time high weekly close at 83.83.

Sales of TOL anywhere above 100.90 and using a stop loss at 103.40 and having an objective of 83.83, will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

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Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2017: Loss of $9,666 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018: Profit of $1,637 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2019: Profit of $13,051per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted
Status of account for 2020: Loss of $16,684 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2021: Profit of $527 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2022: Profit of $6,126 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2023: Profit of $20,877 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2023, as of 1/1

Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

MMM (short) $299
TOL (short) $681

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

BORR (short) $83
PLNH (long) $77

Total Profit for January, per 100 shares and after commissions $1,060

Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

NONE

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

CPRT (long) $126

Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $126

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 2/1

RBLX (short) $275
JD (long) $122

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

GCI (long) $17
LXRX (long) $68

Total $482

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 2/1

SIMO (long) $92

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

ENG (short) $33
INTC (long) $1434
SNDL (long) $68
VWDRY (long) $354
ZLAB (long) $4032

Total $6013

Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.

Loss of $4,597

Status of account/portfolio for 2024, as of 1/31

Loss of $4,597 per 100 shares.



Updates on Held Stocks

ENG generated an uneventful inside week and an uneventful weekly close, having closed just $.01 cents above the previous week's low. As such, there are no new comments on the stock. The company reports earnings on February 12th and it is likely that the same type of action will be seen this week. The previous week's low at 1.21 will be support this week and the 200-week MA, currently at 1.58 will be resistance.

GCI generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.39 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the red week close is a bit of a negative as there was established short-term weekly close resistance at 2.59 and the previous week it closed at 2.59, meaning that resistance level was tested successfully and given additional strength. Short term pivotal weekly close support is found at 2.27 and on an intraweek basis at 2.19. The stock reports earnings on February 22nd and until then, it is likely the stock will trade sideways.

INTC generated another red weekly close this past week and as such, confirmed the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 44.83. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 41.60 than above last week's high at 43.99. Nonetheless and with the indexes making new all-time highs and looking for additional follow through to occur, the probabilities actually favor the stock moving up to the MA line (and perhaps even slightly higher intraweek), to retest the break of support. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 41.17, and as long as that level is not broken, the above picture is a probability. I am still planning on taking profits on such a rally.

JD generated an inside week but did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.53 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the recent low at 20.85 is not broken and the following week the stock goes above this coming week's high, a needed/required retest of the 5-year low will have occurred and short-covering will begin as a bottom to the downtrend will have been built. If all of that occurs, a break above 24.15 will confirm it all. If the 20.85 level is broken, there is further support at 20.52.

LXRX generated another failure signal against the bears but this one was more important as the level of previous support broken (at 1.91) had stood up for 13 months. As such, this failure signal against the bears was more telling and indicative. There is now open air above to the 2.41-2.46 area. Nonetheless, that area or resistance is minor in nature and further upside up to the stronger intraweek resistance at 2.90, which does include the 200-week MA, currently at 2.89 is likely to "ultimately" be seen. With the failure signal given, it means that the 1.91 level of weekly close support (1.71 on an intraweek basis) is now indicative support.

RBLX generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.19 will be seen this week. There is short-term pivotal resistance between 42.20 and 42.35, which if broken would offer open air to 42.99 and if that is broken, up to 46.25. The action last week has decreased the chances of the stock getting down to the 200-day MA, currently at 36.37, but not yet eliminated them. Nonetheless, a break above 42.35 would change the chart to favor the bulls. At this time though, short positions should still be held.

SIMO generated a positive reversal week that did accomplish quite a bit for the bulls, especially since the Chinese market went down. The stock made a new 4-week low and then reversed to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week high at 64.15 will be seen this week. In addition and more importantly, the stock closed once again above the 200-week MA, currently at 62.79, meaning that the previous week's close at 62.30 will now be seen as a successful retest of the breakout above the line that occurred 6 weeks ago. Intraweek resistance is found at 65.33 and pivotal at 65.98. A break above the latter, will offer open above until 71.21 is reached. If the stock gets above last week's high, last week's low at 60.78 will become pivotal support. Given that it is likely that the Chinese market will begin its seasonal February rally next week, this stock could see substantial upside for the month.

VWDRY generated an inside week but did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's at 9.24 will be seen this week. Support is found at 9.01 (low seen 4 weeks ago), which if not broken and then followed by a higher week the following week, would become the new pivotal support level from which bulls would try to restimulate the previous uptrend. By the same token, there is a lot of established support between 8.77 and 9.01, meaning that even if that support breaks, it is not pivotal support. If the 9.01 level holds up, the probabilities are high that the 200-week MA, currently at 9.90, will be tested. The company reports earnings next week on February 14th and it is unlikely the traders will do anything of consequence until then.

Z generated another green weekly close (3rd in a row) but this time the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 59.40 or going below last week's low at 55.82. The stock did close on the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 58.03 but on the other side of the coin, there is an open gap down at 55.40 that is a magnet for closure, given that there was no news on the company to support the gap (it came because of an upgrade by JPM). The company reports earnings on February 13th and therefore it is doubtful that anything of consequence will occur before then. There is short term intraweek resistance at 59.86, which if broken would offer open air to 64.75. To the downside, there is mostly open air to 52.02 if last week's low at 55.82 is broken. There are 2 minor supports at 53.85 and at 53.35. the probabilities favor the stock trading between 59.70 and 52.27 up to the earnings report.

ZLAB generated an uneventful inside red week with a close just $.24 cents below the previous week's close. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23.01 will be seen this week. The stock did make a new 6-year low weekly close below the previous one at 22.70 (closed on Friday at 22.50), which does mean the bulls have to negate the break this week or new selling interest will come in. It is expected that the Chinese market will start its seasonal February rally this week, which could help the stock. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 23.34. A break of that level would offer open air to 25.30. A break below last week's low would offer a drop down to the $20 level. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls, given that it is likely the Chinese market will start its seasonal February rally this coming week.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.50.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 18.30. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.35.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.26. Stock closed on Friday at 9.53.

4) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.40.

5) GCI - Purchased at 1.93. Stop loss at 1.60. Stock closed on Friday at 2.39.

6) PLNH - Liquidated at .82. Averaged long at 1.526 (3 mentions). Loss on the trade of $211 per 100 shares (3 mentions).

8) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.41.

9) Z - Shorted at 57.50 and at 58.68. Averaged short at 58.19 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 57.65.

10) JD - Purchased at 21.33. Stop loss is at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 21.78.

11) INTC - Averaged long at 38.78 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 37.97. Stock closed on Friday at 42.60.

12) RBLX - Shorted at 41.56. Stop loss is at 43.07. Stock closed on Friday at 40.67.

13) SIMO - Averaged long at 63.45 (2 mentions. Stop loss at 61.97. Stock closed on Friday at 63.89.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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