Issue #833
October 22, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears have the edge and index market on the verge of a breakdown.
DOW Friday closing price - 33127
The indexes have reached (or close to reaching) a very important area of support where recession talk could reappear, if the supports are broken. These support levels are pivotal as a break of them opens the door for a much bigger drop. Case in point is the small cap RUT that finds itself in a chart area between 1664 and 1704 (closed at 1680 on Friday) that for 5 years (back to August 2018) has either been pivotal resistance or support on 5 different occasions. If this area is broken, there is basically open air below, all the way down to the 1300 level.
The other indicative index is the SPX that finds itself close to a pivotal area of weekly close support at 4204 (closed at 4224) that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 4233, which has not been broken for the past 7 months. It is also an area between 4179 and 4229 that has been support or resistance on the daily closing chart on 6 occasions during this same period of time. The DOW and the NASDAQ also have important levels of intraweek support at 32846 and at 14432 but if broken, there are some levels close by below that also are support, though more minor that the supports mentioned.
In reading up on the fundamental picture, the analysts generally agree that a recession is unlikely to happen. The economic reports have consistently shown the economy doing better than expected and it is expected that the next GDP report is going to be quite a bit better than the last one. All of this would suggest that a break of support is unlikely to happen at this time.
Nonetheless, the recently-started war in Israel is potentially a negative catalyst that could trigger a break. In addition, the current chart picture favors the bears in spite of the important support levels coming up. Perfect example is the chart of the NASDAQ that clearly shows a down pennant formation that strongly suggests that the 14432 level is likely to be broken. On a slightly positive note, the pennant formation only suggests that a small break below 14432 would suffice to keep the formation intact. The intraweek chart does show some intraweek support at 14385 and a drop down to that level would not necessarily cause the rest of the indexes to break. Then again, the RUT chart is strongly important here, meaning that is the index to watch at this time. Small cap stocks usually outperform the other indexes under the present scenario. If they don't, then there is a big problem overall and a recession would then likely be the end result.
On a chart basis and using the daily closing chart, here are the levels to watch this week. In the DOW, a daily close below 33002 would trigger a new sell signal. In the SPX that daily close level is at 4179, and in the NASDAQ it is at 14303. In the RUT, it is at 1649.
To the upside and likely to mean some type of recovery is to be seen, here are the daily closing levels to watch. In the DOW 33984, in the SPX it is at 4376, in the NASDAQ it is at 15131 and in the RUT is it at 1766.
The indexes all closed "on" the lows of the week and further downside below last week's lows is expected to be seen. As such, what the bulls want to see this week is a positive reversal. It is highly unlikely that any bull statement will be made this week but any green close next Friday would be a positive.
As far as reports are concerned, AMZN, GOOGL and META report this week (between the 24th and the 26th) and there are no economic reports of consequence due out until Thursday when the new GDP report comes out. That means that everything is likely to be chart dependent at the beginning of the week.
OIL generated another green week in its recovery from the $10 fall it experienced 4 weeks ago. Nonetheless and other than generate a green weekly close, the bulls did not do anything of consequence. Oil remains between the $81.50-$91.88 level it saw 4 weeks ago and no new signals were given this past week. Oil did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 89.85 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, support is now at 85.26 and resistance is at 91.48. A close above or below those levels will generate further action. For this week, it is unlikely anything of consequence will occur.
DOLLAR generated a totally uneventful inside week with weekly close just $.09 cents below the previous week's close. It did close red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.07 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the Dollar continues on an uptrend with an upside objective of 107.99. The chart was in need of building some support below and that has now been done (at least on the daily closing chart). On a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal support is now found at 105.82. Overall though, the Dollar continues to be in a $105-$108 trading range for October.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
It is very difficult at this time to determine whether a recession is to begin or not. Nonetheless and based on the majority of analysts, we will not be having a recession. That doesn't mean they are correct but this coming week, the indexes are close to levels that are very pivotal and important and we will be seeing the earnings reports on 3 companies that have been known to be pivotal in the past (AMZN, GOOGL, and META). In addition, we will also get the next GDP advance reading, all of which could determine what the market goes from here.
Having said that, these levels of pivotal support are always the best areas for trading as they offer clear levels of support and resistance, meaning the risk is clearly defined and low and the probabilities always favor these kinds of support levels holding up. As such, I am giving some buy mentions this week, though in each case they are dependent on the stocks reaching desired entry points that are below where they closed on Friday.
MRNA Friday Closing Price - 80.40
MRNA is a company that has dropped over 50% in price over the past 7 months and over 66% over the past 11-months. The drop has been due to the declining interest in getting the Covid vaccine. Nonetheless, the company is more than just a vaccine producer and has begun to reach levels where it was trading (and in an uptrend) prior to having to do anything with vaccines (back in 2018/2019). As such, it is a stock that has a valid reason for being considered a purchase at these levels.
MRNA broke an established support area between $95 and $102 that caused the stock to spike all the way down to the $80 level, which was the biggest weekly drop seen since April. The next established level of support is found at 65.39 (67.47 on a weekly closing basis). Having said that, it is unlikely that the stock will drop down that low, given that overall the company is a better company than it was back in October 2020. As such, the chart does show that there was a weekly closing high at 73.94 that when broken, took the stock up to the $170 level. As such, the possibilities are decent that a drop down to that area will be seen but buying interest seen as well.
Should that level be reached and buying occur, a rally back up to the 95.21 level would likely be seen. That level was the high made in July 2020, which was a time before the vaccines were announced and came out.
Purchases of MRNA around the 74.00 level and using a mental stop at 72.65 and having a 95.21 objective, offers a risk/reward ratio of 16-1. My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The reason for the low rating is that the stop loss is not dependable as there is no established support in that area.
AA Friday Closing Price - 24.01
AA has a chart very similar to the MRNA inasmuch it broke an established support this past week and spiked down. Since January, the stock has fallen 59% in value but Aluminum has only dropped 20% in value and Aluminum is a metal that is expected to continue to go up in demand in the future.
AA did close on the low of the week and is expected to go below last week's low at 23.26 this week. There is open air below down to the 20.78 to 21.13 level and then stronger support at 17.03. A drop down to the $21 is a high probability but buying interest should be found there. It is doubtful that a drop down to the $17 area will be seen, especially before a bounce of some consequence occurs, and then only if the index market breaks down.
If all of that occurs as expected, AA should see a minimum bounce up to 26.20 but if any decent recovery does occur to the overall market, a rally back up to at least 32.08 would be seen. It does bear mentioning that the 200-week MA is currently at 36.45, and if the market does fully recover and the November/December seasonal rally is seen, that would be a viable objective.
As far as a stop loss is concerned, it is also the same situation as with MRNA as there is no clear support level below 20.78 until 17.01 is reached. The mental stop loss I will be using is at 19.65, considering that the $20 demilitarized zone should be seen as a decent psychological support area.
As such, purchases of AA around the 21.00 level and using a stop loss at 19.65 and having a minimum objective of 26.20 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 3.8-1. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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ENG, once again (for the 3rd week in a row), the stock got down to the .30 cent support level and did not break it. The stock has now traded between .30 and .36 for the past 12 weeks and given that the earnings report is not due out until November 7th, the probabilities favor another 2 weeks of the same. As stated last week, any break above .36 or below .30 would be indicative. LXRX generated a negative reversal week of some consequence, given that it dropped 24% from high to low (1.43 to 1.10). There was no news to support the drop, suggesting that it was chart oriented and likely to generate a needed/required retest of the all-time low at .96. The news that generated the rally was positive but not immediately positive, meaning that the traders need to fulfill the chart and build a bottom before they will step up in a bigger way. There is daily close support at 1.08, given that was the original breakout point. With last week's low being at 1.10, the 1.08 level is likely to be seen but thereafter, the probabilities strongly favor a positive reversal as any drop below 1.10 would fulfill the need for a retest of the low. On the other side of the coin, last week's high at 1.43 now become the new resistance level that will need to be broken for a bigger move up to occur. In addition to it all, the stock is a small cap stock, meaning that what the RUT does this week could have an effect on the stock. There is some short-term indicative resistance at 1.26. PLNH generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .83 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it has to be said that a lot of "manipulation" occurred this past week given that on Friday, the traders went after all the stops that were sitting right below the .70 level and that caused a drop down to the $.64 cent level (hitting the mental stop I had at .66). In the last 30 minutes of the day, the traders came back in and bought and that generated a 24% rise from the low to the closing price. One important thing that did happen is that on Thursday, the stock closed at .735 and the 200-day MA is at .734, and then closed at .79 on Friday, meaning that now there is a definite successful retest of the MA line. With the traders having gotten rid of all the stops below, there is no reason for any further downside, meaning the stock should move up consistently from here. Any daily close above .83 will confirm the retest of the MA as successful. Any drop below .64 would now be seen as a change of trend. SNDL made a new 10-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.44 is expected to be seen. The stock broke a weekly close level of support at 1.58 that does erase the recent gains and puts the stock back into a sideways trading range. The reason for the weakness is that the company announced that they were consolidating their cultivation activities to one area, with the express purpose of increasing their ability to cultivate and profit from their operations. This could be a good thing for the future but for now, it means that they are not doing as good as they would like. There is no established support below until the 1.29 level is reached. Intraweek resistance is now found at 1.59, which if broken would likely cause the stock to rise to the 200-day MA, currently at 1.71. TNC generated another red week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.80 will be seen this week. For the first time since Jan 14th, the stock closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 74.48 (closed at 73.82) and that is a negative sign. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 73.67 (73.72 on a daily closing basis), which if broken would generate open air below down to 72.60 and if that level is broken, the 200-week MA, currently at 71.37. would be the next target. There is intraweek support at 70.14 but if that gets broken, there is absolutely no support below until 66.73 is reached. There is one magnet below that is found on the daily chart in the form of an open gap up (from a previous positive earnings report) between 66.89 and 70.00. Closure of the gap is a low probability event as it was a tangibly positive piece of news that is not going to get negated unless a negative piece of news comes out, "or" the indexes break down. The gap was tested when the 72.69 low was made thereafter and a retest of that retest is highly probable. Bottom line, it is likely that a drop down below 73.00 will occur this week and taking profits should be considered. If the 72.69 level is broken, a drop down near the $70 level is then likely to be seen but unless the indexes break down, profits "should be taken" at that moment. The 75.26 level is now a short-term indicative resistance area. VWDRY generated a totally uneventful inside week and closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 6.89 than below last week's low at 6.57. Nonetheless, the stock now shows a successful retest of the recent low at 6.23 with the 6.57 low that occurred on Thursday, followed by the rally and green daily close above Thursday's high that occurred on Friday. That slightly favors the bulls. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 7.08 and short-term pivotal at 6.57. The company reports earnings on the 31st so the traders are not likely to do much this week. ZLAB generated an uneventful inside week but given that the Chinese market had an indicative down week, it has to be seen as a positive. In addition, the stock is showing indicative short-term weekly close support at 23.75 and on Friday, the stock spent half a day trading below that level (had a low on Friday at 23.51). In the end, the stock closed at 23.91, meaning the support held up. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 23.33 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 22.35 and pivotal resistance is found at 25.83. The stock reports earnings on Nov 7th and it is unlikely that the bears will have any success unless the Chinese market takes a big drop from here.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.91. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .308. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.67 (23 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 6.71. 4) LXRX - Averaged long at 2.495 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.13. 5) TCEHY - Liquidated at 36.54. Purchased at 43.23. Loss on the traded of $667 per 100 shares. 6) TNC - Averaged short at 80.485 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 76.31. Stock closed on Friday at 73.84. 7) PLNH - Averaged long at 1.526 (3 mentions). Stop loss at .66. Stock closed on Friday at .79. 9) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 1.45 on Friday.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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