Issue #824
August 13, 2023 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Action this past week, suggests a correction has begun.
DOW Friday closing price - 35281
This past week was generally an uneventful week as the economic and earnings reports came out mostly as expected (there were no catalysts). Nonetheless, the reverse-to-the-recent-normal-bull-market dichotomy occurred, as the DOW generated a green weekly close while all the other indexes generated red weekly closes. This does suggest that the bears have a short-term edge for now.
All indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading ranges, though the DOW did it by a very slightly margin, while all the other indexes closed on or near the lows of the week. As such, it is suggestive that the direction this coming week is likely to be to the downside.
This coming week there is only 1 economic report of any consequence and it is "Retail Sales', which comes out on Tuesday morning. Last month it came out at 2% but the expectations are for it to come in at 5%. Evidently, the odds favor it not being catalytic but there is a slightly higher chance that if it comes outside of what is expected, it will likely be more beneficial to the bears than the bulls.
On a seasonal basis, September is usually a strong down month but that normally begins the last week of August. August normally has been a slow and uneventful month, though normally it is a down month. In the DOW, the index drops down an average of 1% in August. Based on the close in July, it would mean the index will close out the month around 35208. It closed on Friday at 35281. The SPX has shown an average drop in August of 4% and given that it closed last month at 4588, it suggests it will close this month at 4404. It closed on Friday at 4462.
In looking at the intraweek weekly charts and for the month of August, the DOW has a downside objective of 34665, the SPX has a downside target of 4367 and the NASDAQ, a target of 14455.
The NASDAQ has been the weakest index over the past few weeks and that is likely to continue. It is important to note that if the index breaks below the most recent intraweek low at 14667, the break would be of short-term note and would almost guarantee that September will be a down month, as it normally is.
There is not a lot more that I can say at this time. It is highly unlikely that there will be any news that will fundamentally change the picture, meaning that the charts are likely to rule the next few weeks. Overall, this means a slight edge for the bears but nothing of great consequence, at least for August.
For the sake of mentioning the resistance levels above that if broken could change the picture, these are the levels. In the DOW, the 35679 level of resistance would change the chart picture if broken. In the SPX the same resistance level is at 4607 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15932. I doubt those levela will even be neared for the next 10 weeks. In fact, and using the SPX as the index to watch, it is doubtful that Thursday's high at 4527 will be seen again, much less broken.
OIL made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 84.89 will be seen this week. There is old (from November 2021) intraweek resistance at 85.41 that will likely stop this rally in order to generate a retest of the $79-$80 level, which is now the new support level built recently. Nonetheless, if the 85.41 level is broken, there is mostly open air above to the $90-$92 level. There is some even older (from 2010) intraweek resistance at 87.15 but it is not dependable due to its age. This breakout does seem dependable given the fundamental outlook for Oil that is now in place. For the next few weeks though, a $79-$85 trading range is the most probable scenario.
DOLLAR did nothing new this week as it mostly mimicked what happened the week before. Nonetheless, the Dollar did generate a green weekly close, which did confirm the failure against the bears signal given the previous week. It does mean that the downtrend is over for now. The Dollar closed on Friday at 102.84 and the chart suggest that for the next few weeks, it will trade between 101.01 and 103.34 (based on weekly closes).
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions given that the market is likely to head lower and already the portfolio has 5 stocks shorted. In addition, there is likely to be limited downside action for this coming week, meaning that adding additional shorts would not offer any potential for worthwhile profits. That will start to change the following week and moreso the last week of the month, where I will have some new mentions. This is especially true if I do liquidate some of the existing long positons that I am presently holding.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AMZN bulls failed to generate any follow through to the upside above the previous week's high (after the better than expected earnings report) and ended up having an inside week with a red weekly close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 137.00 will be seen this week. The failure to follow through does suggest that for now the recent high at 143.63 might be a top to the rally. Having said that, the only thing that is highly probable to be seen is a retest of the breakout above the 200-week MA, currently at 134.12. Such a retest is highly probable before any attempt to generate further upside is seen. The previous 11-month high daily close is at 134.68 and that level is likely to be seen this week. A confirmed close below that level would likely bring more downside, with perhaps a drop down to the $127-$130 level. There is a gap down at 129.84, which was created by the earnings report that is unlikely to be closed unless the overall market heads substantially lower. As such and at this time, consideration should be given to covering the short positions somewhere between $134 and $135. In looking at the monthly chart, the probability of the stock trading between $135 and $150 for the rest of the year is high. Only a negative market scenario or some negative news about the company would change that chart outlook. CAT failed to follow through to the upside (had an inside week) after the better than expected earnings report generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high the previous week. Nonetheless, the stock did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 287.66 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the previous week's all-time intraweek high at 293.88 is not broken, and that is followed by a fall back the following week, a retest of the high will have occurred, meaning a retest of the breakout area at 264.54 would likely occur. Nonetheless and in looking at all the charts (including the monthly chart) and going back 5 years, it does seem that further upside up to the $307 level will occur at some point over the next 1-6 months. The fundamental picture of the company is strong and only some strong break of the index market would change it. If that happens, then a potential drop down to $244 might be seen. Simply stated and at this time, being short the stock is at best a 50-50 opportunity from the current $284 level. Having said that, a drop down to $264 is highly likely to be seen at some point, with the question being "will $307 be seen first or be seen after the drop down to $264? DD generated an uneventful inside week but the bears were able to close the stock in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.85 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, and having said that, the bears have not yet accomplished anything as a weekly close below 75.81 is needed for at least a failure signal against the bulls to occur (stock closed on Friday at 76.32. Then again and on the daily closing chart, such a failure signal has been given and it does suggest that the stock could be heading down to the 72.36 level where daily close support is found. Any daily close above 78.08 would now be a bullish signal. ENG reported earnings on Thursday afternoon but they had no effect on the stock whatsoever. Then again, their earnings reports for some reason are not easily viewed or known as with other stocks, as finding the report was very difficult. I could only find it at Yahoo.com. Either way, the stock did nothing on Friday whatsoever and the same parameters as have been in place for close to 3 months remain the same ($.30 is support and $.40 is resistance). The CEO of the company, who was there in the past, then left, and recently came back stated that they have cut down 50% of their costs and that they do expect that they will see positive things during the rest of the year. They were successful in getting a 6-month extension to remain in the NASDAQ, given that when a stock is trading below $1, the NASDAQ usually drops those companies. The request and granting of the extension suggests that they do expect to go back above $1 sometime over the next 6 months. The volume remained extremely low on Friday, meaning that the earnings report neither helped nor hurt the stock. LXRX made another red weekly close (the 9th in a row) and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.68 will be seen this week. This recent drop was further helped by the earnings report 2 weeks ago that was worse than expected. By the same token, the company continues to receive positive news regarding the drugs that they are working on and the outlook for the future (based on those fundamental reports) suggests that a positive outlook for the future is in place. The stock did close on Friday at a weekly close support level between 1.73 and 1.76, which stood up for 5 months back between March and August 2020. Given the fundamental picture for the future and the 9 red weeks in a row, there is a fair-to-good chance that a green close will occur this Friday. It does need to be mentioned that the stock made its all time weekly closing low on November 2020 at 1.03 and that low was successfully tested on June 2022 with a weekly closing low at 1.48. This does suggest that with the stock closing on Friday at 1.73, that the probabilities of Friday's close being the 2nd successful retest of that all-time low are high. By the same token, the recent break of a decent weekly close support at 1.91, does suggest that any recovery from here will be limited for the next few weeks. Evidently, any weekly close above 1.91 would generate a failure signal against the bears but the probabilities favor the stock moving back up to the 1.91 level and then retesting this 1.73 low thereafter. This means that any recovery of consequence is not likely to start for at least another 3-6 weeks. Once it does start though, a rally back up to the 200-week MA, currently at 3.14, is likely to occur over the following 3-6 months. Due to the outlook mentioned above, this week is likely to be important, with a green or red weekly close next Friday being a key to the chart outlook. PAAS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.87 will be seen this week. This positive reversal does suggest that the stock will be in a sideways trading range between 14.67 and 16.12. With the Gold chart leaning more to the downside than to the upside and the possibilities of any further profit of consequence being low, consideration to taking profits on the trade above the $16 should be given. Any rally above 17.12 or any drop below 14.41 would give additional ammunition to the traders in the direction broken. I do plan to take profits this week above 16.00. PLNHF did make a new 10-week intraweek low, having gone below the .534 low made in June and the repeated lows at .54 made repeatedly thereafter. Nonetheless, the new low did not generate any new selling and the stock turned around to close on the high of the week at.58, suggesting further upside above that level will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock has been trading between .52 and .63 for the past 3 months and until one of those levels gets broken, nothing of consequence is likely to happen. The company does report earnings on August 29th after the market close and as such, is likely to continue in this trading range for the next 2 weeks. TCEHY made a new 11-week intraweek low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.00 will be seen this week. The stock had been trading between 41.04 and 46.46 for this period of time and that trading range was broken with the 41.00 low. Then again, the break was not confirmed as the weekly close support at 42.16 was only broken by $.03 cents, which is not considered a clear break. Nonetheless, the bears have the edge and if any further downside is seen, it will favor the bears for a retest of the pivotal support at 38.88. As such, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions if the 41.00 low made last week is broken. The chart is leaning in favor of the bears. TNC made another new all-time intraweek high this past week but for the second week in a row, the bulls failed to confirm the breakout, having failed to do the same on the weekly closing chart. The all-time high weekly close is at 85.25 and the subsequent retest of that all-time high 10-months later was at 85.25 and with the stock closing on Friday at 84.95, neither of those two levels were broken. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 83.58 than going above last week's high at 87.53. If that occurs, there is absolutely no intraweek support below until 78.26 is reached. In looking at the daily closing chart, the stock did make a new all-time high daily close at 86.96 on Wednesday but did generate a failure signal on Friday, meaning that both charts suggest that the rally high has been made and that the stock will head lower from here on in. Nonetheless, the stock does have a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap being at 81.47. The gap formation is valid as it came off of news (better than expected earnings report) and as such, the bears will have trouble closing the gap. A drop down to the top of the gap at 82.86 is likely to occur this week but at that time, the traders will make their decision on what to do thereafter with the stock. I would venture to "guess" that due to the failure on the daily and weekly closing charts, that ultimately (likely in September) that both gaps will be closed (meaning a drop down to at least 74.25) and that at time, covering of the shorts should occur. TOL generated a new 3-week intraweek high but then closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 78.75 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the all-time intraweek high at 83.72 will have been tested successfully and some further downside to test the previous daily and weekly closing high at 74.61 will occur. The probabilities do favor this scenario. By the same token and at this time, further downside below 74.41 (on a closing basis) is not a probability given the positive fundamental picture on the Housing market. As such, any drop below $75 should be considered as an opportunity to cover the short positions and take the loss. VET made a 7-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.45 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did confirm the breakout that occurred the previous week, with a 2nd week in a row closing above the 4-month weekly closing high at 13.47. In addition it broke 2 other weekly closing resistance levels (minor in nature) at 14.13 and at 14.78, having closed on Friday at 14.79. There is still minor weekly close resistance between 15.72 and 15.84, which is a level that should be reached this week. If the stock closes above those level on Friday, a rally up to the objective of the mention at 17.97 is likely to be seen within the next few weeks. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor a straight up or fast attempt to get to the objective will occur, meaning that it is likely that to take anywhere from 4 to as much as 8 weeks to get there. That means up and down movement, with a slight bias to the upside, being the scenario. For the time being, important and indicative support, on a daily closing basis, will be found between 13.95 and 14.04. The stock is up at the 200-day MA, currently at 14.79, meaning that this week is short-term important. Any confirmed daily close above 15.00 will give the bulls the needed "short-term" ammunition to continue higher in the short term. Probabilities favor the stock dropping down toward the $14 level by the end of the week. VWDRY reported earnings and they were lower than expected. As such, the stock gapped down and made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 8.04 is expected to be seen this week. There is some intraweek support at 8.08 and again at 7.90 but that support is minor in nature. One potential small positive is that the stock made the week's low on Thursday and Friday was an inside day (no follow through) and that could mean the traders might try to rally the stock at the beginning of the week. A daily close above 8.80 is required to negate the earning's report drop. Otherwise, there is no support below 7.90 until the 7.00 level is reached. I will be looking to liquidate the positions and take the loss if the the stock rallies above 8.60. ZLAB reported earnings and they were worse than expected. Nonetheless, the traders were not looking for an earning beat but looking for the guidance-for-the-future estimates and the guidance given did leave the door open for a recovery rally. The stock did make a new 9-month intraweek low at 23.77 but then rallied to close in the upper half of week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 27.74 than below last week's low. In addition and on a positive note, the weekly close support at 25.30, which has been in place for the past 10-months, did not get broken as the stock closed at 25.78. In addition and on the daily chart, a new sell signal was given on Tuesday but then was negated the very next day. That negation has now been confirmed. Putting all this action (and the earnings report and guidance) into the evaluation, I would venture to say that the worst is over and that from here on in, a recovery rally will occur. There are 3 "daily close" resistance levels to watch this week. The first one is at 27.64. It is a minor resistance level but a close above it, would generate a 2nd failure signal against the bears. The next resistance level is at 29.04. It is a minor to decent resistance area that if broken, would give the bulls new chart ammunition. The 3rd daily close resistance is at 29.81, which would give the bulls a clear edge for more. Any weekly close above 31.49 would generate a new buy signal and confirm that the downtrend is over. Daily close support is now found at 25.30, meaning that very little (if any) weakness should be seen, if the chart evaluation is correct. Simply and from the beginning of the week, the stock should be moving higher.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 25.78. 2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .345. 3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 8.13. 4) 5) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.79.
6) CAT - Shorted at 262.17. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at 285.22 on Friday.
7) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.13.
8) AMZN - Averaged short at 133.325 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.41.
9) TOL - Averaged short at 73.43 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 79.47.
10) TNC - Shorted at 81.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 84.95.
11) PAAS - Purchased at 14.30. Stop loss now at 14.57. Stock closed on Friday at 15.87.
12) DDD - Shorted at 77.65. Stop loss at 78.84. Stock closed on Friday at 76.32.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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