Issue #820
July 9, 2023 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


No surprises in economic reports. Charts take over. Market overbought.

DOW Friday closing price - 33734
SPX Friday closing price - 4398
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 15036
RUT Friday closing price - 1864

Once again, the indexes continue to trade without direction. For the past 4 weeks, the indexes have been trading within a small trading range with one week being up and near the top of the trading range and the very next week, down near the low of the trading range, and neither side being broken in any meaningful way. The economic reports this week were supposed to give the traders some direction for at least the next month but they came out without any surprises and as such, nothing changed.

Nonetheless, it has become somewhat evident by the economic reports that have come out the past few months, that the economic situation is not likely to get much better or get much worse and that suggests that the traders are likely to depend more on chart support and resistance levels than on news. Such a scenario will make things easier to trade.

Based on the charts and already established resistance and support levels, this scenario now favors the bears, given that the markets are overbought and the risk/reward ratios favor the downside.

All the indexes, with the exception of the RUT, closed on or near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week. In the DOW, last week's low was 33176, in the SPX it was 4385, and in the NASDAQ it was 14968. Short-term pivotal supports are found at 33610, at 4328, and at 14687 (respectively). A break of those levels would offer the following near-term objectives of 32937, 4222, and 14384 (also respectively).

The only economic report scheduled for this week that has any catalytic power is the CPI (inflation) report on Wednesday. It is expected to come out at .3%, which is a bit higher than last month's .1% number. Evidently a higher than expected number would generate more sell pressure and a lower than expected number would do the opposite. The probabilities do favor the number coming out as expected, meaning that the bears would gain a small edge due to the factors mentioned above.

At this time that is the most probable scenario, based on the reports that have come out of late. If there is a positive surprise (lower inflation number), then the traders are likely to push the indexes higher. Nonetheless and with resistance now being recently established in the DOW at 34588 and long term established at 34712, the SPX at 4458 and at 4536 and the NASDAQ at 15284 and at 15617, the upside is limited under just about any condition.

The downside is likely to continue this week but limited and slow achieving.


GOLD generated an inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1943 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a very slight green weekly close ($1930 over last week's $1929) but it was important, given that $1929 is where established short-term pivotal weekly close support is found. With the inflation number expected to come in higher than the previous month, and what the Fed is likely to do with rates at their Fed meeting at the end of July, the probabilities do favor a bounce to the upside. The $1950 level being highly likely to be reached but with the door somewhat open for a rally as high as $2003. Any drop below the recent low at $1900 would negate this outlook.

OIL generated a buy signal on Friday, having made a new 10-week weekly closing high and closing above the 10-week high weekly close at 72.67 (closed at 73.86). Oil closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside closed above last week's high at 73.92 will be seen this week. There is some minor intraweek resistance at 74.77 but above that, there is open air until 80.94 is reached. Support will now be found at 70.11, which if broken would totally negate the action this week and bring in new selling interest.

DOLLAR remained in the sideways trading scenario it has been in since December, between 104.70 and 100.82 (trading range this past week was 102.23 to 103.57). In this range, a break above 104.70 or a break below 100.82 would strongly tilt the strength to the bulls or bears. The Dollar closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting some weakness will be seen this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There was no catalytic news this past week, meaning that charts are likely to be used by the traders for at least the next two weeks. By the same token and for the same reason, no big moves are expected to be seen, meaning the opportunities for making any significant profit is low. There were 2 industries that did generate somewhat clear signals of what is likely to happen over this period of time. The two industries are Metals and Oil.

Oil stocks of note are expensive and because of that, the risk/reward ratios are not all that great. Nonetheless, I did find one stock in the Silver industry that does offer clear chart points, low risk and decent profit potential. As such, that will be my only mention this week.

PAAS Friday Closing Price - 14.38

PAAS is a mining company that is involved in the mining of Gold, Silver, Zinc and Copper and that has been trading for the past 11 months down in an area of support around the $14 level that has been strong support on 8 different times during the past 11 years. The stock made a new 8-month low the previous week at 13.90, which seems will be a successful retest of the 13.40 low made in November of last year. On the daily chart, that 13.90 low was retested successfully on Thursday with a low at 13.98 and a rally above Thursday's high on Friday, as well as a green close. This does suggest that the stock is not likely to get below 14.00 anymore, or at least until a rally has occurred first.

Using the weekly chart, PAAS, there is basically open air up until 16.32 is reached. This fits in well with the fact that the 200-day MA is currently at 16.43, which is a "natural" objective if and when the downside is over for now.

Purchases of PAAS at Friday's closing price at 14.38 and using a stop loss at 13.80 and having a 16.32 objective will offer a 3.3-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMZN continued its uptrend, having made a new intraweek rally high. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then going below the previous week's low and then closing red. Nonetheless, it was not a convincing reversal given that the stock went above and below the previous week's range by a very small amount and then closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 131.85 than going below last week's low at 127.37. The 200-week MA, currently at 132.55 remains a very difficult obstacle to break, especially now that the economic picture did not improve with last week's economic reports. Minor support is found at 123.85, and again and a bit (not much) stronger at 120.80. Below that, there is open air to 105.35, which is the objective of the mention. To the upside, pivotal resistance is found at 136.49.

ATNI generated a new 9-week intraweek and weekly closing low and did close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.65 will be seen this week. There is still important support at 35.03 and at 34.75, which is he 15-month low. As such, last week's action was not decisive or even indicative to any great extent. Nonetheless, last week's action has now made the 37.19 level into short-term pivotal support. This means that the stock now has a trading range of no more than $2.43, from which some indication of note occurs.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red. Nonetheless, the negative reversal was not convincing as the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of going above last week's high at 248.38 than below last week's low at 238.89. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 250.89 that should not be broken. If it is not broken and the stock turns down, the stock will then have a successful retest of the rally high, which in turn would bring new selling interest if it all happens. Support is now found at 231.28, if that is broken, a drop down to 225.26 would then likely be seen.

ENG made a new 12-week intraweek and weekly close and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at .33 than going above last week's high at .389. The bulls need to generate a daily close above .43 or a weekly close above .40, in order to generate any new buying interest. Pivotal support remains at .30.

LXRX generated an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.18 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to break the weekly close support at 2.21 (closed at 2.22), meaning that recovery is still possible. A drop below 2.18 but not below the recent low at 2.08, followed by a green weekly close next Friday would suggest that a bottom to this correction has been found. Short-term but strongly pivotal resistance is found at 2.38, which is the most recent intraweek high but also represents the 200-day MA, currently at 2.36.

PLNHF continued to trade in a trading range (between .52 and .63) that is meaningless. In addition, the stock did close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going below last week's low at .54 than above last week's high at .61. On a slightly positive note, the stock made the week's low on Friday and then reversed to close near the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside. In addition, the small cap stock's index (the RUT) did have a positive week, suggesting that perhaps buying will start to be seen on small cap stocks. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at .63. Intraweek support remains at .52.

TCEHY generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low but then turning around to close green and near the high of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.48 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low will become the needed/required retest of the recent multi-week low at 38.88. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 44.71 and pivotal resistance is found at 46.46, which if broken would confirm that a bottom to the correction has been found.

TNC dropped 5% in value this past week and in the process, generated a sell signal on both the daily and weekly closing chart. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below lat week's low at 77.07 is expected to be seen. With the downside action seen, the bullish flag formation that was in place has now been negated and now, there is open air below until 74.68 is reached. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 72.60. Last but not least, the stock gapped down on Thursday and there was a gap up made on June 7th, meaning that there is potential for a bearish island formation to have been created. If nothing else, the gap up from 78.22 to 78.46 (which was a runaway gap) has been closed, meaning that the breakaway gap down at 74.45 is now a target for closure. Any daily close above 79.35 would likely take away the edge that the bears obtained this week.

TOL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 79.90 and then turning around to go below the previous week's low. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 75.31 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the negative reversal, no sell signals or failure signals were given, meaning that further downside of any consequence is not yet "in the cards". By the same token, a drop down to retest the previous all-time daily and weekly closing high 74.61 does seem to be a high probability at this time. With the stock closing on Friday at 76.81, a further drop of at least 2% is "in the cards". Any confirmed close below 74.61 would open the door for a drop down to $67-$68 level. If the stock does get below 75.31 at the beginning of the week, the 77.93 level will become short-term pivotal resistance.

VET made a new 10-week high this past week and did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.02 will be seen this week. A new buy signal was given on both the daily and weekly closing charts and given that the 19-month low at 10.75 (made in the last week in June) has been tested successfully, this breakout is dependable. The next level of resistance, on a daily closing basis, is found between 13.58 and 13.77. Nonetheless and looking at the monthly closing chart, the upside objective of this recovery action suggests that at least a move back up to the 16.29 should be seen. The weekly closing chart suggests that a move back up to the $18 is a likely scenario, to be seen over a period of 3-6 months. Any intraweek break above 16.83 would suggest the 18.01 level would be seen over a period of 3-6 weeks thereafter. Intraweek support is now found at 11.93. Any break below 11.55 would negate this chart picture.

VWDRY generated another new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 8.48 than above last week's high at 8.81. The chart does suggest the stock will continue lower with a downside objective of 8.08 before any recovery of consequence occurs. Nonetheless, that level is an intraweek support that is well established and unlikely to break, given that the fundamentals of the company in the green energy market are highly positive. At this time, decent-and-unlikely-to-be-broken-anytime-soon resistance is found between 9.31 and 9.45. As such, the stock is likely to be in an 8.08 to 9.31 trading range for the next 2 months.

ZLAB made a new 4-week intraweek high and a new 3-week weekly closing high but did end up closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 27.88 than above last week's high at 31.31. There is intraweek support at 27.08 that should hold up given that a buy signal on the daily closing chart was given this past week. Such a buy signal suggests the downside is over. It does need to be mentioned that on the daily chart, enough has been done to the downside that a rally from here would not be a surprise. As such, it the stock gets above 31.31 this week, there is mostly open air up to the 200-day MA, currently at 34.30. Pivotal support is found at 24.98 and pivotal resistance is found at 37.92.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.975.

2) ENG - Averaged long at 2.876 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .35.

3) VWDRY - Averaged long at 9.565 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 8.67. Stock closed on Friday at 8.615.

4) - Purchased at 3.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.22.

5) ANTI - Purchased at 36.29. Stop loss at 38.99 (mental). Stock closed on Friday at 35.93.

6) VET - Averaged long at 14.956 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.91.

7) CAT - Shorted at 247.21. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 245.18

8) TCEHY - Purchased at 43.23. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 42.88.

9) AMZN - Shorted at 130.73. Stop loss is at 136.50. Stock closed on Friday at 129.78.

10) TOL - Averaged short at 73.43 (2 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 76.81.

11) TNC - Shorted at 81.20. Stop Loss is at 82.35. Stock closed on Friday at 77.60.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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