Issue #798
January 22, 2023 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Uncertainty remains in market. Traders will await clarification next week.
DOW Friday closing price - 33375
The market had a mixed week with the NASDAQ appreciating.7% while the SPX dropped .7%, the RUT dropping 1.1% and the DOW dropping 2.7%. As it is, the dichotomy between the DOW and the NAZ started to turn around the previous week and continued all last week. At the end of the week, NFLX reported much better earnings than expected and that "sealed the deal", given that all of the financial earnings reports were worse than expected and the few reports that came out last week on DOW stocks were also worse than expected. The economic reports that did come out last week were all mostly as expected and did not add to the ammunition on either side of the coin.
Nonetheless, there is one additional factor that has reduced the threat of a recession occurring and that is the Chinese market that has actually rallied 34% over the past 12 weeks (versus the DOW rallying 1.6% and the NASDAQ rallying 7%). This is contributing to the idea that a recession is not as much of a high probability as it was conceived to be a few weeks ago. What this has done is add more uncertainty into the market that needs more economic information in order to get further clarity.
One thing that seems to be fairly certain for this coming week is that the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ will continue to go in the opposite direction that it has gone over the past two years. Between December 2020 and December 2022, the DOW appreciated in value 12.1% while the NASDAQ depreciated in value 6.6%, meaning the safe stocks were the clear leaders and speculative stocks lost value. The following week (all on Feb 2), AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL report earnings and those will help determine which dichotomy is to continue to occur.
The NASDAQ closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 11690 is expected to be seen. The SPX closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range and the probabilities are slightly higher that it will go above last week's high at 4015 than below last week's low at 3885. The DOW closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 32948 is expected to be seen.
Having said that, there are some pivotal levels to watch this week. In the NASDAQ there is pivotal resistance at 12166 and in the SPX it is at 4100. On the opposite side, three is pivotal support in the DOW at 32573. The probabilities do not favor any of these (support or resistance) being broken this week but if anything does happen, it would likely be in the DOW given that the earnings reports this week are mostly in some of the big DOW stocks (such as IBM, TRV, 3M, JNJ, T, and VZ). It is in those types of stocks were weakness in earnings is expected to be seen. Other earnings reports this week that could have a general effect is TSLA and MSFT. On the economics front, there is only one report that is of consequence this week and it is the GDP advance report that comes out on Thursday AM.
Nonetheless, with the big 3 earnings reports due out Feb 2 and the Fed rate decision due out on Feb 1, including the ISM index and Jobs report that week, it is not likely that either the bulls or the bears will place themselves in an aggressive position. This does suggest that this coming week will be mostly calm and trading the ranges available without any break of consequence occurring.
In ending this comment, it should be mentioned that on a seasonal basis, February is normally a sideways to down month. Over the past 21 years though, February has averaged a .4% loss, suggesting that the probabilities do favor the bears overall.
OIL had a volatile week, having made a new 12-week intraweek high and a new 6-day low and generating a $4 trading range between 78.45 and 82.67. In the end though, the bulls did turn out to be the winners as a new 12-week weekly closing high was made and in the process, the bulls were able to break a decent and pivotal daily close resistance area between 80.45 and 81.15. In addition and more importantly, a new buy signal was given on the weekly closing chart, as 2 previous weekly closing highs at 80.30 and 80.47 were broken convincingly (Oil closed at 81.64). Oil closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above 82.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, this break of resistance only gives the bulls the short-term edge/control as there is more intraweek resistance at 83.33 and midterm pivotal at 85.41 (83.76 on a weekly closing basis). By the same token and with was accomplished last week, the bulls have clearly shown that the downtrend is over. Daily close support is now found between $76 and $77. It does need to be mentioned that on the weekly closing chart, Oil was showing a bullish inverted flag formation that if confirmed, offers a 89.34 objective. Confirmation will come if Oil is able to generate a weekly close above 83.76. By the same token, any weekly close from now on below 80.47 would negate the flag.
DOLLAR continued lower and made a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 101.26 will be seen this week. The Dollar is facing a pivotal week, given that there is pivotal intraweek support at 101.30 (101.67 on a weekly closing basis) and the former was broken this past week by $.04 and the latter was not broken but did close only $.11 cents above the support. This means that this coming week the bulls need to prevent further downside and close green on Friday, or new weakness will be seen. Then again and with the following week being highly pivotal, if the break does occur this week, the bears would need to confirm the break the following week after all the economic and earnings reports come out. It is evident that at this time the bears have control of the Dollar and the onus is on the bulls to make something happen. A break of last week's low would suggest a drop down to the $100 area would be seen and the door would open for potentially a drop all the way down to $96. The bulls need a green weekly close next Friday and another green close the following week, to turn things around.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week given the underlying fundamental uncertainty that was shown this past week. The uncertainly will likely be resolved (to some extent) the following week, which is a week with a multitude of economic and earnings reports scheduled. At that time, a trading strategy will become more clearly defined.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek high at 260.50 but then closing red and in the lower half of the weeki's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 244.30 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock had an inside day on Friday (did not follow through to the downside off of Thursday's close near the low of the day) and did close on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 249.92 will be seen on Monday. The upside objective is closure of Thursday's gap down at 252.07. The gap was not generated by news and therefore should not remain open. Nonetheless, there is no resistance above until minor resistance at 254.44/255.39 (off of the 60-minute chart) and as such, the stock could rally back up to that level before renewed profit taking/new selling interest is seen. To the downside, there is no intraweek support until 236.20 (237.54 on a daily closing basis), meaning that may be the week's downside objective. With the stock generating at $16.74 trading range last week, it does open the door for a $254 to $237 trading range this week. DOW generated an inside red week but closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.48 will be seen this week. The stock did get down to the daily close support at 56.11 with a low last week at 55.85 and a close at 56.60 and having successfully tested that level, the bulls remain with short-term control. There is a small mountain of daily close resistance at the $60 demilitarized zone but there is an open gap up at 61.86 that will be targeted for closure. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Thursday and that will likely determine what the stock will do thereafter. A daily close below 56.10 would open the door for a drop down to as low as 52.76. ENG generated a totally uneventful inside week in which the stock traded in a very small $.05 trading range and closed exactly at the weekly close resistance area at .865. As such, there are no new comments that can be made about last week's action. The company does not report earnings for another 2 weeks, so there are no catalytic events on the immediate horizon. Nonetheless, the weekly close was green and that means that a bottom formation has been built, which would require negative news to negate. By the same token, a daily close above .88 is still required to confirm the bottom formation. If that occurs, the 1.10 level will become the objective. Any daily close now below .77, will be a negative sign. LI generated another relatively uneventful week but did go below the previous week and did close red, but then closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that it was more of a base/support building week than anything else. Pivotal short-term weekly close resistance is found at 22.78 (closed on Friday at 22.06), which if broken would give at 26.93 objective. Any daily close below 20.93 would be seen as a failure and give the edge back to the bears. PLNHF generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .897 will be seen this week. The 1.03 level was the minimum upside objective and it was reached this week as the stock made a 1.05 high. With the negative reversal, it does mean that a retest of the recent low at .61 is now likely to occur. It is also a required move down as it was a major low that does need some form of retest before new buying comes in. There is no support below on the weekly or daily chart but on the intraday chart, there is support between .84 and .85, suggesting that is the objective this week. If all of that occurs, the 1.05 intraweek resistance will before pivotal. Two daily closes in a row above 1.06 this week would also be seen as a bull statement. SHOP generated another green weekly close (the 4th in a row) and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.03 will be seen this week. There is weekly close resistance at 40.68 that is short-term pivotal. Nonetheless and in looking at the intraweek and daily closing charts, the bulls were able to make a small statement, having broken above one intraweek resistance level at 40.68 and close above a small mountain of daily close resistance at the $40 demilitarized zone. In addition, the week's low at 37.91 can be seen as a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 36.62, especially since that low was made on Thursday and the stock went above Thursday's high on Friday. Simply stated, the bulls seem to have the edge at this time and considering to covering the short positions should be made, especially on any break of last week's high at 41.03. TXT generated a new 11-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 66.37 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock gapped down on Thursday and did generate a green close near the high of the day on Friday, suggesting the gap at 68.25 will be closed this week. There is intraweek resistance of "some" consequence at 68.79, which if not broken as the gap is closed, would bring in new selling interest. The 200-day MA, currently at 65.84, should be the minimum downside objective this week. On the other side of the coin, any daily close above 69.28 would take away the ammunition the bears gained this week. Such action would be a reason to consider taking the profits made. Overall and in looking at the weekly chart, the $62-$64 level remains viable as the mentions objective. VET generated a 2nd green weekly close and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action remains disappointing given what the bulls were able to do with Oil this past week, which should have been enough to generate a rally close to the $17 level. The $17 level remains a high possibility of being reached but further upside above that level (up to the $20 level) is now less likely than it was before last week's action. Nonetheless and on a positive note, a successful retest of the recent lows has now been accomplished on the daily chart and any daily close above 17.01 would keep the door open for further upside. A daily close above 17.97 would suggest the $20 level would be reached. Any daily close now below 15.03 would give the bears new ammunition. VNET generated a new 9-month weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.83 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday and a close on the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 6.43. Downside objective could be as low as 5.95. Overall though, the bulls are presently in control given that the 200-day MA was broken to the upside 17-days ago and the stock has maintained itself above that line since. Intraweek resistance is found at 6.92, at 7.28, at 7.60 and at 7.94. Any daily close above 7.94 would open the door for a rally to the $10 level. Any daily close below 5.48 would negate all the recent gains and turn the stock negative. X generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 37-week intraweek high and then closing red. Nonetheless and in spite of the red weekly close, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 28.91 than below last week's low at 27.25. There is minor to decent intraweek resistance at 29.97 and decent at 30.57. As with the big 3 Tech stocks, the company reports earnings on Tuesday February 2nd. Any daily close above 29.45 or a weekly close above 28.98 would be a bull sign. Any daily close below 27.20 would be a short-term bear sign. ZLAB generated a 2nd uneventful inside week but did generate a red weekly close, suggesting the bulls need further news or help in other to break the pivotal weekly close resistance at 48.80 (closed at 45.58 on Friday). Nonetheless and also for the 2nd week in a row, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high a 47.00 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 49.81 and midterm pivotal at 53.95. The stock has now traded for 11 days in a row above the 200-day MA and does show a bull flag formation (flagpole being the rally from 28.19 to 49.91 and the flag the trading range down to 40.22) that if broken, would offer a 61.84 objective. It is important to note that the chart does show important intraweek resistance from February 2020, at 63.95, meaning that the flag objective is more than viable. It is a clear objective based on a breakout of resistance, especially if the 53.95 level of resistance is broken. Evidently, the 40.22 level is now pivotal intraweek support.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.30. 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0086. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .018. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.53. 5) X - Shorted at 28.87. Stop loss is at 30.67. Stock closed on Friday at 28.21. 6) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .865. 7) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.45. 8) SHOP Shorted at 39.72. Stop loss now at 41.13. Stock closed on Friday at 40.45. 9) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 249.71. 10) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.49. 11) DOW - Averaged short at 51.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.44. 12) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.72. 13) TXT - Shorted at 72.26. Stop loss now at 69.38 (on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 67.85
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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