Issue #794
December 18, 2022 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bears get a decided edge. Bulls back on the Defensive once again.
DOW Friday closing price - 32920
The 3 main indexes generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low but the DOW had a "key" reversal week, having made a new 6-month high and then closing below the previous week's low. All indexes closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last weeks' lows (DOW below 32654, SPX below 3827, NAZ below 11175, and RUT below 1746) will be seen this week. This was an indicative week given that both the inflation report and the Fed rate decision came out and the traders now have all the possibly catalytic fundamental news for the month. With the negative action seen, there doesn't seem to be anything that could help the bulls rally over the next 2 weeks.
Nonetheless, the bulls were able to make a small short-term mini statement on Friday, given that the NASDAQ was able to rally enough on Friday to close just slightly below an important weekly close support level at 11265 (closed at 11243) which "suggests that a green weekly close is likely to occur next Friday. This issue does not mean anything for the overall outlook of the index market but it likely means that for the next two weeks (until the end of the year), the traders are not likely to push for much lower prices. They are likely to take the holidays off from trading and simply idle, as they await the new round of economic report in January, as well as the beginning of the next earnings quarter. In addition, there has been a seasonal tendency for the indexes to rally in the last week of the year.
By the same token, this scenario does not take away the fact that the fundamental picture for 2023 (recession) is a big negative and that this week's indicative down action is likely to be a precursor to a negative beginning of the year, given that there is a minor but well defined seasonal tendency for January being a down month. The NASDAQ did close on Friday below the 200-week MA (currently at 11418) and the 18-month low seen in July at 10440 is only 7.2% from Friday's close. As such, the probabilities for the beginning of 2023 being a negative is high.
For this coming week, the DOW has a downside objective of at least 32455 (where the 200-week MA is at) with a high probability of getting down to 32272 where there is a clearly defined and established intraweek low from February. The SPX has a downside objective of 3810, which is where there is an open gap at 3818 (which has no reason to stay open) as well as a previously established intraweek support at 3810. In addition, the original daily close breakout level, made after the July lows were made, is at 3790 (3822 intraweek high). That level is now a magnet for the index. Last but not least, the NASDAQ has a downside objective for this week of 11012, given that like with the SPX, there is an open gap there, it is also the location of an established intraweek low from June at 11037 as well as the location of the initial breakout from the July lows from a high at 10966. These downside targets are all magnets for this week, especially due to the action seen last week. Nonetheless, if reached early in the week, the rest of the week should see some recovery, with the NASDAQ likely heading the way to a green weekly close on Friday.
Levels to watch to the upside, which if broken would start changing the char outlook are as follows. In the DOW resistance should now be found at 33272, in the SPX at 3914 and in the NASDAQ at 11657. If any of these resistance levels are broken this week, the bulls will show a bit of resilience to the negative action seen this past week.
Probabilities do favor weakness at the beginning of the week and some recovery toward the end of the week. There are no economic reports of consequence due out this week that could affect the market in one direction or the other.
OIL generated an inside week but did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 77.76 than below last week's low at 70.25. Nonetheless, the week was totally uneventful, meaning that the bears remain in full control, given than no resistance levels were broken intraweek or on a daily or weekly closing basis. One thing that did get established this past week is that the 77.27 level, on a daily closing basis, is now short-term pivotal resistance. If broken, it would mean that for the time being (next few weeks), Oil would likely trade sideways and that no new lows would be seen (or possible) until the New Year. Pivotal daily close resistance remains the same as stated last week. Those are at 66.26 and at 76.26. Probabilities do favor sideways trading for the next 2 weeks.
DOLLAR generated a new 25-week intraweek low and a new 24-week weekly closing low but did rally enough to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 105.25 will be seen this week. This does suggest that for the next 2 weeks (until the beginning of January) that the Dollar will trade sideways with perhaps a very slight bias to the upside. It means that it is not likely that more downside will be seen for now but that no bull move will be seen either. Trading range for the next couple of weeks should be between 103.77 and 105.79. The Dollar closed on Friday at 104.70 (right in the middle of that trading range).
BITCOIN. I will no longer be doing chart analysis on Bitcoin given that it seems that it has now been discredited as a form of trading or a viable currency. There are legal attempts to rule it a sham and a type of Ponzi scheme and until that gets ruled on and either confirmed or denied, it is not something I can presently consider a "trading vehicle".
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no mentions this week and probably will not have any the following week, given that the probabilities do not favor much movement or clarity in the market until the New Year. Nonetheless, it is highly probable that I will be trading out of some existing held positions this week (see below in Held Stocks Updates) and re-enter the trades in January. I do see lower prices at the beginning of the week, followed by a mild rally toward the end of the week and some follow through the following week.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a new 24-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 133.73 will be seen this week. The stock broke an established intraweek resistance at 134.37 and only has two remaining intraweek support levels below left at 132.61 and at 129.04. Nonetheless, the next 2 weeks are not likely to have much participation seen and stocks are likely to trade mostly sideways with a rally toward the end of the week and a Xmas rally the week after. The chart suggests that the stock will get down this week to at least 132.61 and then turn around and by the end of the year, rally back up to the $138-$141. As such, liquidation of short positions below $133 and re-entering the short positions above $140 can be considered. Any daily close below 130.06 or above 145.47 would be indicative. CAT continues to outperform the general market and shows no clear signs that any type of correction or retest of the lows has begun. The stock remained in the same trading range seen the past 5 weeks between 225.51 and 239.85, having traded this week between 227.02 and 238.22. Unlike the indexes that made multi-week lows this week, the stock actually generated a green weekly close. It did close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning equal chances of going above last week's high or going below last week's low. Nonetheless, the sell signal given the previous week on the weekly chart was negated and unless the indexes break down this week (unlikely), the chart suggest that more of the same as seen the past 5 weeks will continue. The chart remains overall bullish as there is a bull flag formation in place, which if broken (a rally above 239.85) would offer an upside objective of 304.30. On the other side of the coin, a break below 225.05 should offer a drop down to $190 or even down to $180. The fundamentals do not suggest the former will occur but the chart remains tilted in favor of the bulls. Either way, it is likely this sideways trend will continue for the next 2 weeks and that some decision on direction will occur in January. ENG generated another new 25-month weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .80 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the intraweek low made 4 weeks ago at .75 did not get broken, meaning that no bear statement of consequence was made this past week. With the holiday period ahead, it is unlikely that any statement will be made until the New Year begins. Short-term pivotal intraweek support is at .75 and to the upside at 1.02. It is highly likely the stock will trade between those two levels for the next 2 weeks. LI generated a red close week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.96 will be seen this week. The bulls were unable to hold the weekly close support level at 20.94, having closed at 20.45. It does suggest the stock will head down to the previous high daily close at 18.94, from which the recent breakout occurred that generated the rally all the way up to the 24.41 level. That level of support is quite decent given that not only did it generate the breakout but was also a big support level in May (18.90) and from which a rally up above $40 occurred. Simply stated, it is not likely to be broken without some negative fundamental news being released. It should also be noted that the runaway gap is at 18.80 and that gap should also not be closed as it would mean the breakaway gap down at 17.62 would be targeted. The breakaway/runaway gap formation is supported by news (Chinese market rallying due a downgrading of the zero-Covid restrictions). There is a gap to the upside at 23.62 that does not have a reason to stay unclosed, meaning that is a potential upside target for the next 2 weeks. A break above 24.41 would open the door for a rally up to 25.91, which is where the 200-day MA is currently located. Nonetheless, a rally up to the line is not likely to happen (or be tried) until the New Year. NEM generated another red close week and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.25 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, there is short-term pivotal weekly close support at 45.13 (44.32 on a daily closing basis), which is unlikely to be broken at this time. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is found at 47.13, which if broken, would give the bulls some additional ammunition. The stock closed on Friday at 46.14, which is in the middle of those two areas. The chart remains leaning clearly to the bulls for a rally up to 200-day MA, currently at 56.47. Nonetheless, neither a breakdown or a breakout is likely to be attempted until the New Year, meaning the stock is likely to trade between 45.00 and 47.00, or perhaps as high as 50.00 for the next 2 weeks. PLNHF made a new 17-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last weeks' low at 1.02 will be seen this week. There has been no negative news (in fact, the opposite as positive news has come out), meaning this breakdown is likely chart oriented due to the failure to rally to resistance a few weeks and then the recent breaks of support the last 2 weeks. There is a double bottom at .93/.94 that should hold up, in fact not even reached (on a weekly closing basis) as it would make it a triple bottom. As such, the probabilities do favor the 1.00 level holding up, given that it is a good psychological support and the fundamental picture definitely leans positive. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is at 1.15, which if broken would likely cause strong short-covering to occur. I do not see the stock doing much for the next 2 week, with the stock probably trading between .97 and up to 1.12. QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 272.61 will be seen this week. Intraweek support is found at 269.28 and on a daily closing basis at the $270 demilitarized zone, suggesting that area is the downside objective for this week but is also a level where consideration to covering the short positions should be given. The chart suggests that a bounce is likely to occur from that support level with a possible intraweek objective of 284.18/284.60, to be reached by the end of the year. The 200-week MA is currently at 278.82 and that will be a magnet to the upside if the support levels below hold up. A break above 284.60 would change the chart a bit for a short-term basis. SHOP generated a 2nd red close week in a row and in the process generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 36.59 (closed at 36.09) and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.65 will be seen this week. The stock does show pivotal daily close support at 35.21, which if broken does show open air down to the 29.76-30.81 level. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 36.40 and then nothing until the $40 demilitarized zone is reached. The Retail Sales report last week is a fundamental negative for the stock suggesting the bears now likely have the edge and the stock might outperform the indexes to the downside this week. Consideration should be given to covering the short positions if the stock gets near the $30 level. VET generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-month intraweek low but then closing green. Nonetheless, the green close was only by $.025 and the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.94 will be seen this week. The stock does show decent intraweek support at 16.60 that is not likely to be broken this week given that Oil is expected to trade sideways to perhaps slightly higher for the next couple of weeks. If 16.60 is broken though, there is open air below down to the 200-week MA, currently at 13.18. To the upside, there is intraweek resistance at 18.23 that is likely to hold up for the next 2 weeks. Nonetheless, if broken, a rally back up to the $20 level is likely to occur. As such, the probabilities favor the stock trading mostly sideways for the next 2 weeks between 16.60 and 18.23 with a small possibility of trading as high as 20.00. VNET generated a totally uneventful inside week with a 3rd green weekly close in a row and a close very slightly above the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 5.36 than below last week's low at 4.94. Nonetheless, the action being seen suggests the stock will not do anything of any consequence for the rest of the year, meaning that it should be ignored until January as the traders await the outcome of the proposed merger at $8 a share. For now, the chart does not favor either side as it seems to be in a trading range between 4.50 and 6.00. Midterm pivotal resistance is at 6.43, which if broken would make the $8 level the objective. ZLAB generated another red weekly close but no support levels were broken. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.52 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 31.05. Daily close resistance is found at 35.18 and 38.56, with the latter being pivotal, given that the 200-day MA is currently at 37.07. The bulls have been attempting to break that line since September and having broken it once and tested it twice since then. The probabilities do favor the bulls, both chart-wise and fundamentally, but due to the likely lack of trading interest for the next two weeks, I would expect the stock to be in a trading range between $31 and $37 for the next 2 weeks. A weekly close below 29.70 or above 37.76 would be indicative.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.27 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0045. . 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .006. . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.59. 5) AU - Covered shorts at 19.50. Loss on the trade of $2677 per 100 shares (4 mentions). 6) BABA - Liquidated at 93.24. Purchased at 89.86. Profit on the trade of $338 per 100 shares. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 46.14. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .83. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.22. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 134.51. 11) CAT - Averaged short at 211.9675 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 232.72. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.45. 13) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 274.25 14) VET - Purchased at 20.38. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.29 15) SHOP - Shorted at 44.97. Stop loss now at 42.80. Stock closed on Friday at 36.09.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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