Issue #786
October 16 , 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls failed to make a statement, meaning Bears remain in control.
DOW Friday closing price - 29634
With the exception of the DOW, all indexes continued the downtrend with a red weekly close. The inflation report (CPI) came in higher than anticipated (.4% vs anticipated at .2%), meaning that inflation continues to rise and if the Fed does what it has committed itself to do, further raising of interest rates will continue to occur and at a fast(er) pace. Such a scenario is not conducive to any lasting and dependable recovery in the market.
The SPX made a new yearly low weekly close, having closed below the low made 3 weeks ago and also closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 3599, for the first time since March 2020 when the pandemic began. The NASDAQ also made a new low for the year but also did a lot more than that given that the index broke the MA 3 weeks ago, then the previous week it closed green and just below the line, and the red close this week means the break of the MA has been confirmed. It also means that a successful retest of the line has occurred. All of these actions mean that the bears are in control and the bulls "require" positive news to turn it around.
It does need to be mentioned that neither the DOW nor the RUT made new intraweek or weekly closing lows and that suggests that the outlook for the next month (October) is not as grim as it may have been otherwise. These two indexes show that there is still buying interest but that the buying interest is concentrated in safe and proven stocks (DOW) and in the small cap stocks that have lagged all year and are not likely to see much further downside.
The outlook for October being a seasonal up month on 68% of the occasions remains unclear as to whether it will be the 68% probability or the 32% probability. Nonetheless, it can now be said (with some degree of confidence) that whichever it will be, it will be limited (no crash and also no recovery of consequence).
As far as what to expect this week, the indexes all closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 28660, SPX at 3491, NAZ at 10440 and RUT at 1641) will be seen this week. In the DOW, there is some minor support at 28169. In the SPX, there is no intraweek support until 3233 is reached. In the NASDAQ, there is "very minor" intraweek support at 10313, and in the RUT, there is minor support at 1610.
The DOW does have a magnet below in the form of an open gap at 28495. Based on what happened this week and especially on the fundamental news that came out, the probabilities of that gap being closed are high. By the same token and based on the fact that this is the index that is seeing the most resilience, it does suggest that the 28169 intraweek minor support level might hold up and a bit of a recovery rally occur from that level. With the index having seen a low of 28660 last week, a drop of only 165 points below last week's low would close the gap.
On another note and based on the amount of volatility that was seen this past week, meaning that there is a lot of uncertainty and some manipulation occurring, and also based on the negative fundamental news that came out this past week, last week's highs should now be pivotal resistance. In the DOW pivotal resistance is now found at 30454, in the SPX it is at 3712, and in the NASDAQ it is at 11293. Not in all cases are those resistance levels last week's highs but they are definitely resistance. It is also important to note that those levels mentioned in the SPX and the NASDAQ represent a gap area that is similar to an island formation. If those resistance levels are broken, it would be a short-term game changer.
Attention will now turn to earnings and this week the two most important reports at NFLX on Tuesday afternoon and IBM on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely though that any one earnings report will be catalytic enough to change the chart picture.
To wrap this up, the bears have control but it is likely somewhat limited. If there is a surprise, it would likely be to the downside and not to the upside.
OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 85.20 will be seen this week. Oil has exactly the same chart situation as Gold, given that it made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low just 3 weeks ago and then rallied 18.4% to this past weeks high and has now given back 9% of that back. Like with Gold, a retest of the low is required before traders jump in to buy more aggressively, and that is likely what is occurring now. In the case of Oil though, there is a level on the daily and weekly closing chart that was established support before it got broken on the move down. That support, which is at 83.76 (on a closing basis) is now quite important as the fundamental picture has changed due to the cuts in oil production announced by OPEC, meaning there should be no reason to break that support at this time. Nonetheless, the probabilities are high that the level will be reached this week. On an intraweek basis though, there is no support until 81.20 is reached. As such, that is the potential downside target for this week, on an intraweek basis. As far as to the upside, once again the 90.13/90.19 level is pivotal resistance. If broken after going below 85.20, it will bring in new buying interest.
DOLLAR generated a new 24-year weekly closing high but that was not confirmed by the intraweek chart, given that last week's high was 113.92 and the high made 3 weeks ago was 114.78.The Dollar did close near the high of the week and further upside above 113.92 is expected to be seen this week. As such, confirmation could occur this week. Above that level, there is no resistance until the $120 level is reached. Pivotal support is found at 110.07. The bulls maintain control.
BITCOIN has been idling now for the past 4 weeks with neither the bulls nor bears able to do anything. The weekly closes for the past 4 weeks are: 18935, 19317, 19418 and it is presently trading at 19072. As such, there are no new comments that can be given at this time. A daily close below 18476 will give the bears further ammunition and total control and a daily close above 20308 will give the bulls "some" ammunition for further recovery.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again, I have no new mentions. This past week confused the scenario more than cleared it up, meaning that there is no trade on either side that has any kind of dependable probabiloity rating that can be given. I do believe that there is a slightly higher chance that buying something this week on further downside has a better chance of being successful than selling anything new on the short side. Unfortunately, that will not be known until the week is over, or at least for the next couple of days. It is a week where liquidating long positions or coverning short positions might be the best course of action, but that is not something that can be determined now. After a few days of action that may change and if it does, I will let you know n the message board.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL continued lower, having made a new 18-week intraweek low and a new 20-week weekly closing low. The stock closed in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 134.37 will be seen this week. The next intraweek support level is at 132.61. If that level gets broken, the bears will target the July lows at 129.07 and if broken, that would open the door for a possible drop all the way down to the 200-week MA, currently at 107.10. Pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 143.59. The action seen in the index market this past week does suggest that "much further downside" is unlikely to occur, suggesting that consideration should be given for taking profits around the $132. AU generated a spike down week that negated the gains made the previous week, including the negation against the bears given last week. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.29 will be seen this week. Important and pivotal intraweek support is found at 11.94 (12.16 on a daily closing basis). A break of both of those would bring in new selling interest. On the other side of the coin, if the bulls are able to hold it at this level and rally, it will build a new and stronger support base from which new and stronger buying would likely occur. A daily close above 13.04 would be a positive sign for the bulls. BABA made a new 78-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.40 will be seen this week. There is no support below until the 59.25 level is reached. The action in the stock is surprising given that BABA does the same thing that AMZN and GOOGL do, with the only difference is that it does that in China and not the U.S. (China has 4 times more population than the U.S). Nonetheless, the stock is trading 23% below its IPO opening price in 2014 at $95 and yet AMZN is 660% above its 2014 price and GOOGL is 345% above its 2014 price. Chart-wise, there is no reason to keep the stock at this time. Pivotal resistance is found at 86.29, meaning that as long as it stays below that price, the bears will be in control. The very minimum that the bulls must do this week to generate "any" buying" interest is a daily close above 76.76 (stock closed on Friday at 73.02. CAT generated another green weekly on Friday but then, it was only by 1.5% and the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 172.71 than above last week's high at 184.95 (closed at 178.19). Like many other stocks, products, and indexes, the September lows (lows for the year) have not been tested yet and the probabilities favor the being what is happening now. Under that scenario, last week's low should be broken and given that there is no support below (on the weekly intraweek chart) until 167.08, it is likely that is the objective for this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 168.92 and that too is a magnet now. Using the daily chart, there is support at 172.71. Nonetheless, this stock does need the indexes to go lower as buying interest has been seen since JPM upgraded their upside objective from $205 to $220. ENG made a new 11-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.05 will be seen this week. This move down has totally negated the gains achieved during the past 12 weeks and has put the stock back into a sideways trend between 1.00 and 1.60 for probably the rest of the year. Having said that, the stock is probably a buy around the 1.00 level given that there is a lot of established support on the weekly closing chart between .97 and 1.00 (around .91 on an intraweek basis. Given that the fundamentals of the company fully support these price levels, it is highly unlikely that much further weakness will be seen. Short-term daily close resistance is found at 1.15 and short-term pivotal at 1.32. LI continued lower and made a new 7-month intraweek low and a new 17-month weekly closing low. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 18.43 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, there has been no specific negative news on the company and its action from here on in, is totally dependent on what the Chinese market does, and the Chinese market is dependent on what the government will do to support Chinese businesses. That, unfortunately, is not something that cannot be evaluated at this time. Chart-wise, the stock is nearing a level of support around the $18 level that goes back 3 years and that has already been tested successfully on 2 previous occasions. Simply stated, this level "requires" new bad news to break. On a daily closing basis, there is important support at 18.20, and there is a fully established 3-point trend line on the intraweek chart that connects at 17.71. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 21.18. NEM made a new 30-month weekly closing low and closed on near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 40.04 will be seen this week. has the same chart as AU with the exception that no failure signal against the bears has been given. Nonetheless, a drop below last week's low at 42.37 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock has been down to this area on 2 previous occasions over the past 8 week and on every occasion (40.27, 40.00 and this week to 40.04, meaning there is some established support here. There is further daily close support at 39.50, a level I have mentioned repeatedly the past 8 weeks, meaning that a new 30-month low could be made this week and the established support hold up. Pivotal resistance is found at 45.23. PLNHF generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.07 will be seen this week. The previous week the stock rallied 64% above the week's low the week before, suggesting some positive fundamental events are occurring to the company, suggesting that the stock has found support at the recent intraweek low at 1.03. There is weekly close support at 1.20 and pivotal at 1.11. Having closed at 1.19 on Friday, a green weekly close next Friday would be a positive. QQQ continued the downtrend with a strong red close and now a clear and confirmed break of the 200-week MA, currently at 273.45. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 254.26. There is some minor intraweek support at 251.32 but below that there is nothing close by. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 271.81. SHOP made a new 41-month intraweek and weekly closing low but did outperform the rest of the market at the end of the week as it closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27,39 will be seen this week. As such, it is possible that last week's low at 23.63 might end up being a bottom, if and when the indexes are able to hold on to the support levels mentioned above. Nonetheless, there has been no new news and the recent break of support does offer a minimum drop down to the $20 level, meaning that the upside of the stock is totally dependent on what the indexes do. Evidently is last week's low is broken, it will be an additional bear statement. Only an intraweek rally above 31.83 will take away control from the bears. VNET closed the runaway gap to the upside on Monday, suggesting weakness but then outperformed the rest of the market by generating 3 green daily closes on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.15 will be seen this week. Chart-wise and using the daily closing chart, the stock is looking generally positive and that is supported by the fundamental picture. By the same token, the bulls have not accomplished anything recently as they need a daily close above 5.46 to generate new buying interest. Any daily close below 4.53 would now be a negative sign. ZLAB continued lower, having generated the 6th red weekly close in a row. Once again, the stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.44 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and using the weekly closing chart, this area between 28.55 and 29.70 (the stock closed on Friday at 28.73_ and that means that this week will likely be a green close week. Intraweek support is found at 25.78 and short-term pivotal resistance is at 37.75.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.15 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0164. 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0121 . 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.03. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.38. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.02. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.74. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.07. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.97. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 147.90 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 138.38. 11) CAT - Averaged short at 204.80 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 178.19. 12) LI - Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 18.72. 13) SHOP - Shorted at 31.40. Stop loss at 31.95. Stock closed on Friday at 26.06. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 282.51. Stop loss at 284.35. Stock closed on Friday at 260.74.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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