Issue #781
September 11, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bounce is occurring, much like what was seen in August.
DOW Friday closing price - 32151
The indexes generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then turning around and going above the previous week's high and closing green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. Simply stated, all of the previous week's losses were recouped last week. There was no specific news to support the turn around, meaning that there is a lack of clarity about the future, which in turn generates the traders to go in whatever direction the indexes are trading on that day or that week.
As far as the charts are concerned, no resistance levels of consequence were broken but the green weekly closes did successfully test (and further strengthen) previous weekly close support levels, meaning that as far as the downside is concerned, the charts now have established new pivotal levels of important support. In the DOW, the 31261/31318 level is now minor to decent weekly close support. In the SPX, that same situation is now found at 3901/3924 and in the NASDAQ, it is at 11835/12098.
There are two scheduled news events over the next week and a half that will generate fundamental information that the traders can use to further evaluate the indexes. On Tuesday of this week, the CPI (inflation) report comes out. It is anticipated to be .0% on the general number and .4% on the core number and on Wednesday of the following week, the FOMC rate decision is announced. The major part of all analysts are expecting another 75% point rate increase, while a few analysts are expecting only 50% points. These reports will further clarify the fundamental picture. It is important to note that September is considered to be a seasonal down month and for that to happen, the indexes would need to close out the month lower than last month's closes (DOW at 31510, SPX at 3955 and NASDAQ at 12272). In August, which is also a seasonal down month, the indexes traded higher the first 2 weeks of the month and a negative reversal week occurred on the 3rd week of the month. That scenario could also happen here, given that the probabilities do not favor either of the remaining important economic reports being all that much off what is expected. As such and without any real positive fundamental changes (inflation and interest rates to remain high), the seasonal factors should not change either. This means that this coming week should be another up week and then some type of negative reversal occur the following week, much like what happened in August.
As far as the chart points to look at this week in the indexes, here they are: In the SPX and on a daily closing basis, there is minor but possibly short-term indicative resistance at 4100 and then more important and indicative at 4176. In the NASDAQ, the same situation at 12619 and at 12892. There are no levels like that close by in the DOW. It should be noted that there are no pivotal weekly closes nearby (in eitehr direction)that are likely to be reached or broken this week. Nonetheless, if the CPI number is way out of line and there is strong movement to the downside, a daily close below 3973 in the SPX below 3900 and in the NASDAQ below 12011 would definitely tilt the scales to the bears.
Simply stated, probabilities favor the bulls this coming week but not to any great indicative degree.
OIL got down to a very pivotal intraweek support level at 81.07 with an 81.20 low seen on Thursday. Buying interest was found there, which generated a rally that allowed Oil to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 91.37 than below last week's low at 81.20. Nonetheless and spite of the big trading range and late week rally, nothing of consequence was established by neither the bulls nor the bears. Oil did generate a failure signal against the bulls on the daily closing chart on Wednesday, having closed below 83.76 but that failure signal was negated on Friday with the 86.09 close. As such, the 83.76 level (on a daily closing basis) will again be support this week. On the weekly chart, that level remains a magnet due to the recent downtrend continuing (red weekly close on Friday). As such, it is possible that Oil will go higher at the beginning of the week (go above last week's high) and then see weakness toward the end of the week and close next Friday around the 83.76 level. Nonetheless, any confirmed daily close this week above 88.96 would likely change that chart outlook.
DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 17-year intraweek high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 108.36 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no previously established intraweek resistance was reached and the negative reversal did not generate any new sell or failure signals, suggesting that it was not a consequential week (mostly short-term trading). On a daily closing basis, any confirmed close below 108.47 would generate a new sell signal as well as a failure signal. Confirmation of that kind of a signal would also need to happen in the weekly closing chart, with a weekly close below 108.06. As it is though, this move down was likely just a pause in the action and the uptrend is likely to continue the following week. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but not to any great degree.
BITCOIN is in the process of generating a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-week intraweek low and now trading above the previous week's high. It is likely to close (tomorrow) at or near last week's high (presently at 21656), suggesting further upside above that level will be seen this week. The green weekly close will mean that the multi-year low weekly close at 18978 will have been tested successfully, giving the bulls some new ammunition with which to attempt to continue higher. Nonetheless, the action seen in Bitcoin is much like what was seen in the index and products market, meaning that for this coming week further upside is likely to be seen but the following week the bears might get the edge back again. On a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 23398 and pivotal at 24395. Daily close support found between 19500 and 20300.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week but I am going to be looking at adding long positions in BABA and adding short positions in IR and QQQ. For details on these trades, look at the comments in the Held Stocks Comments area.
I will have new mentions the following week.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 157.82 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 160.36 and on a daily closing basis, at the 200-day MA, currently at 161.04. It is likely and evident that a retest of the line is in store for this week. If the resistance at 160.36 is not broken and the MA no reached, it would be a sign of innate weakness. The stock has a breakaway/runaway gap with the latter being at 163.56. If that gap is closed, it would be a sign of strength for the bulls. AU did not follow through to the downside (as expected) and ended up having an inside week but a green close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.13 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 14.92 and then again at 15.28. Intraweek support is now found at 13.47. Any daily close above 15.40 would be a short-term bull statement. With the stock having generated a failure signal against the bears this past week (both on the daily and weekly closing chart), as well as now showing a double bottom at 12.66/12.83, probabilities have strongly increased that the low for the recent downtrend has been found. Probabilities favor the bulls. BABA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then turning around to close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 92.90 will be seen this week. If that does occur, last week's low at 87.76 will become a successful retest of the previous week's low at 86.71, which was a new 15-week low that broke the multiple bottoms created around the 88.00 level. If all of that occurs this week (likely), it will strengthen the chart for the bulls to a higher degree as the 86.71 low will become the 2nd successful retest of the 6-year intraweek low at 73.28 that was made in March. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 104.85 and then and on a daily closing basis, at 106.86, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. It seems likely that line will be tested within a week or two. Pivotal support is now found at 86.71. Probabilities favor the bulls. This is a stock where adding positions on a move back down to the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 90.51, can now be considered. The upside objective to be reached within 2 months is the $120 level, meaning that purchases around 90.50 and using a 86.61 stop loss and having a $120 objective, will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio. BGNE generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 173.86 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 178.69 and again at 181.83. It is likely that one of the other will be reached this week but doubtful that both will be broken. On a negative note for the bulls, there is now a triple bottom between 160.48 and 161.08, which is a magnet to be broken at some point in the near future. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but the bears for the midterm. CAT received positive news on Friday, in the form of having reached an agreement with the IRS for the 2016/2017 tax year problems they had. The agreement included that no penalties would be assessed against the company. The stock gapped up and with the help of a rallying market, it was able to recuperate 6% of the losses incurred the past 7 trading days. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 189.76 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 193.15 and then nothing until the $200 level is reached. The gap at 183.28 is likely to be a magnet for closure given that the gains from the lack of penalties is a one-time thing that is not going to overall help the company in the future outlook. Nonetheless, important and decent support has now been established at the $178/$180 level that will require negative fundamental news or a falling stock market to be broken. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ENG generated a green weekly close and once again at the pivotal 200-week MA, currently at 1.63, having closed at 1.62 on Friday. This is now the 3rd retest of that line, suggesting that the probabilities now favor the line being broken. The bears have been totally unsuccessful in generating any kind of even a minor downside move, with the 1.45 level, on an intraweek basis, having been strong support during the past 3 weeks (1.50 on a daily closing basis). Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 1.77. which if broken would establish the bulls being in at least short-to-midterm control. Any move down below 1.45 would temporarily weaken the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. LI got down to the "last line" of intraweek support at 25.40, having made a low this past week at 25.36 and then turning around to close in the upper half of the week's trading range. This move does open the door for potential double low at a pivotal level of support. Using the weekly closing chart, the stock did generate another red weekly close but the bulls were able to stay above the important weekly close support at 26.01, having closed at 26.33. The stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that there is a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 27.23 than below last week's low at 25.36. Any rally above last week's high would now strongly suggest that a bottom to this move down may have been found. There is no intraweek resistance above until the 28.90 level is reached, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 29.15. Pivotal midterm resistance is found at 32.15. Any move below last week's low at 25.36 would be reason to liquidate all positions. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. IR generated a green week and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 50.36 will be seen this week. There is an open gap at 51.23 that beckons but there is indicative resistance at 51.76 that should not be broken without help from either positive news for the company or the overall market breaking pivotal resistance levels above. As such, consideration can be given to adding short positions around at 51.23 level, using a stop loss at 54.24. This recovery move seems to be a retest of the recent high at 54.14 that should be successful (fail to break above 54.14), opening the door for further downside to 44.85 or 41.60, as the likely downside objectives, to be reached by the end of September. Probabilities favor the bulls for the beginning of the week but the bears for a red close next Friday. NEM did not follow through to the downside (as expected) and ended up having an inside week but a green weekly close and a close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.41 will be seen this week. The previous week, the stock did get down to the $40, which is a level of decent previously established support and having failed to follow through in addition to the green weekly close, suggests that the worst of the down move may be over. On the other side of the coin, the bulls need to do "more" before that becomes a high probability. The first thing that the bulls need to do is generate a weekly close above 44.77, which would give a failure signal against the bears. A daily and/or weekly close above 46.55 would give a new buy signal. On an intraweek basis, the 42.88 level should now become intraweek support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. PLNHF generated a new 7-week intraweek low but ended up having an uneventful week as the stock closed at the same level as the previous week. The stock did break the intraweek support at 1.37 and got down close to the next support at 1.26 with the low being 1.30 this past week. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the 1.26 level of intraweek support will be visited this week. By the same token and using the weekly closing chart, the support at 1.38 remains unbroken. This does suggest that presently there is no direction to the stock but that the bulls maintain the probabilities in their favor for the midterm. More of the same is expected to be seen this week. QQQ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low but then closing green and above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 307.60 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 314.56. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at 309.10 and then both on an intraweek and on a daily closing basis at 314.38. It is unlikely at this time that the bulls will be able to get above the 314.56 level, meaning that consideration can be given to shorting (or adding shorts) above $314 and using at 314.76 stop loss. The $280 level continue to be the downside objective to be reached before the end of the month. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. SHOP generated a "key" positive reversal week, having made a new 24-month intraweek low but then closing convincingly above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.90 will be seen this week. This does suggest that a major bottom may have been established. The stock had a $5.83 trading range and there is no resistance of consequence above until the $40 level is reached, meaning that it could (perhaps even likely will) be seen this week as that level is $5.20 from Friday's close. I did state the previous week that the stock would likely get back up to that level at some time over the next few weeks and that it would be a level at which to consider liquidation of the held positions. As such, I will be looking to liquidate the positions on such a rally. The probabilities thereafter would suggest that a drop back down to the $30/$31 would then occur. Intraweek support is now found at 30.55 and there is minor resistance at 36.75. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. VET generated another red weekly close and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 23.02 than above last week's high at 27.10. The stock has now dropped 24.7% from the high made 3 weeks ago but has only dropped 15.6% on the weekly closing chart, meaning that this is a correction but not yet a change of trend. The stock did gap up on Friday between 24.06 and 24.49 and given that there was no news to support the gap, it should be closed this week. The stock did get up to the 200 10-minute MA on 2 occasions on Friday but the bulls were unable to break above the level (currently at 24.76). That line is expected to be pivotal at the beginning of this week. Indicative intraweek support is found at 23.36. If reached but not broken, it would suggest that a possible inside week will be seen. Intraweek resistance is found at 25.41 that will be difficult to break this week. As such, there is a good possibility that the stock will have an inside week with a trading range between 23.26 and 25.41. Overall though, the longer-term outlook remains in favor of the bulls with the $31 level being the upside objective. VNET generated a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing low and the stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 4.30 than above last week's high at 4.98. The island formation that was the main reason for the original mention and purchase is at risk of being closed given that the a drop down to 3.95 would negate the formation. Nonetheless, having made a new 6-month low is a strong negative that does suggest that the positives of the island have disappeared. Islands usually generate strong moves up within a few weeks (certainly a couple of months) thereafter and that has not happened. As such, this trade has lost most of its glitter and looking for liquidation of the positions should be considered. Nonetheless, the stock did close on the high of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside and if the bulls can get above 5.43, or at least close above 4.75 on Monday, waiting for further indications can be done. Any break below last week's low at 4.30 would be reason to get out and take the loss. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing convincingly above the previous weeks' high. In addition, the stock generated a new 7-month intraweek as well as a daily and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 53.95 will be seen this week. Last but not least, the stock closed convincingly above the 200-day MA, currently at 45.55 and did confirm the break with the daily close above 48.35, strongly suggesting that further upside is to come. There is minor intraweek resistance at 54.35 and then open air to the $60 demilitarized zone. The $60 area is the main target at this time but it is a resistance of some consequence as in February 2020, the stock made a major intraweek high at 63.85 (60.53 on a weekly closing basis) that lasted 9 weeks before being broken and did generate a move back down to 43.06. As such, it can be surmised that something like that will happen at this time. Consideration to liquidating positions above the $60 level can be given if you are "trading" the stock and not being a buy hold investor. Ultimately (likely 9-12 months), the stock could get back up as high as $122. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at 9.05 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.74 2) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .02. 3) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .01. 4) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.80. 5) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.10. 6) BABA - Purchased at 89.86. Stop loss at 86.61. Stock closed on Friday at 92.14. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 61.492 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.17. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.62. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.59. 10) AAPL - Averaged short at 158.325 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 157.37. 11) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 189.49. 12) LI - Purchased at 26.23. Averaged long at 31.942 (4 mentions. Stop loss at 25.30. Stock closed on Friday at 26.33. 13) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). No top loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.81. 14) QQQ - Shorted at 332.82. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 307.09. 15) BGNE - Shorted at 183.20. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 170.71. 16) IR - Shorted at 50.98. Averaged short at 51.715 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 43.35. Stock closed on Friday at 50.23. 17) AAPL - Shorted at 160.24. Covered shorts at 154.29. Profit on the trade of $598 per 100 shares. 18) CAT - Shorted at 196.42. Covered shorts at 180.69. Profit on the trade of $1579 per 100 shares. 19) VET - Purchased at 23.97. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 24.66. 20) QQQ - Day traded twice (once on the short side and once on the long side). Loss of $30 (total) per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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