Issue #774
Jul 24, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Important and likely pivotal week ahead as catalytic reports are scheduled.
DOW Friday closing price - 31899
All indexes made a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing highs and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 32219, SPX at 4012, NASDAQ at 12663, and RUT at 1842) will be seen this week. The new multi-week highs does break the stranglehold that the bears had on the market and opens the door for not only a bottom to the downtrend having been found but for a recovery rally of consequence having started.
By the same token, the fundamental picture has to support all of this occurring and there has not yet been any consequential news to support the rally, meaning that the rally itself could be short-term manipulation and not a dependable change of outlook. This week though, that will change as there are several reports that can be indicative or even catalytic and that are likely to supply the traders with the kind of fundamental information needed to make a short-term decisive decision. On Tuesday morning, the Consumer Confidence number is released and that same day but in the afternoon, GOOGL reports earnings. On Wednesday morning, the Durable Goods number comes out and at 2:00 pm the Fed releases their Fed rate decision. On Thursday morning, the new GDP number is shown and then after the close, AAPL and AMZN earnings are released. These 6 reports are all of high importance and likely to give enough fundamental information for the traders to make a clear decision on what the market is likely to do for the next 4-6 weeks. This means that at this time, it is still "anyone's game".
The NASDAQ remains the key index this week, especially considering that it has been the lead index all year (both to the upside and the downside) and that the 3 earnings reports due out are specifically tied to the index. In addition, it is the index that has the clearest (and closest) chart picture of all. To the upside, there is pivotal short-term intraweek resistance at 12897. A break of that resistance will open the door for a recovery of consequence, up to at least the 14000 level. On the other side of the coin but not as pivotal but nonetheless indicative, there is daily close support at the 12015/12125 level, which is a previous double high on the daily closing chart and from which the rally seen this week occurred (once the level was broken). A confirmed close below that area will suggest a drop down to the yet unclosed breakaway gap down at 11801 would be seen. Such a move down would take away all the ammunition the bulls amassed this past week.
With the index closing on Friday at 12396, the upside resistance is 500 points away and the support is 300 points away. It is highly unlikely either level will be seen and much less broken until the reports are released. If they are broken before Wednesday afternoon, it would suggest there has been a leak of what the reports are going to be. There is nothing more that I can say (at this time), given that this coming week will be all about the fundamental picture and not about chart trading. By Thursday evening, all fundamental information will be out and the traders will likely be making their decisions. Nonetheless, the bears remain with a slight edge (both chart-wise and fundamentally) given that the onus is on the shoulders of the bulls to change things to their advantage.
OIL generated an uneventful inside week (higher lows and lower highs than the previous week) but did generate another red weekly close, meaning that the break of the weekly close support at 98.26 seen the previous week was confirmed (closes the past 2 weeks have been at 97.59 and Friday at 95.13). Oil closed in the lower half of the weeks' trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.89 will be seen this week. The chart is now clearly leaning toward the downside given that Oil is now showing a gap between 98.16 and 97.95, which if followed by another gap (runaway gap) could signal a strong move down. Oil did close near the low of the day on Friday, meaning that if it gaps down on Monday (below Friday's low at 94.25) and then continues lower and breaks the recent low at 90.58, the bears will gain full control and drops all the way down to the low $70's would become the objective Evidently, all the important economic reports due out this week will give some ammunition to the bears or the bulls, meaning that nothing of great consequence is likely to happen until at least Wednesday (after the GDP report and Fed rate change are announced). What is now clearly defined are the important intraweek support and resistance areas for this week. To the upside, the 100.99 is pivotal and to the downside the 90.58 is pivotal. Probabilities favor the bears.
DOLLAR generated a red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.11 will be seen this week. The red weekly close has confirmed that the $107-$108 (specifically 107.97/107.98) level remains an important and pivotal area of resistance that spans 20 years. This move down does open the door for further downside with perhaps the $104 level being the objective. Intraweek resistance remains at 109.29 but now any daily close above 108.57 would change the chart to the point that much further upside would likely be seen. Using the recent daily closing chart, a drop down to 105.52 is likely to occur something over the next week (or the next). Probabilities favor the bears at this time.
BITCOIN generated a short-term breakout this week, having closed above the established daily close resistance at 21620 and then confirmed the breakout with higher closes every day thereafter. The breakout will be also confirmed on the weekly closing chart if tomorrow at 12:00 pm it closes above 21575 (presently trading at 22230 on Saturday). If the breakout does occur tomorrow, Bitcoin will show some intraweek resistance above at last week's high at 24276 but above that, there is open air to 28609 (on a daily closing basis. On a daily closing basis, the 21620 level is now support. On an intraday basis, support is found at 21413. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no "new" mentions this week but I am planning on adding positions to existing held stock holdings. I plan to purchase additional shares in LI and NEM and will also be considering adding to PRTS, SHOP VIPS, if and when the action and the prices match up to a positive risk/reward and probability rating. In the first two stocks mentioned, check the held stocks comment area for the specific prices where I plan to add and in the last 3 stocks, I will be giving the mentions on the message board, if and when the action supports the addition of shares.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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AAPL generated a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 149.64. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to make a statement buy signal, having been unable to close above the established weekly close resistance at 154.30 (closed at 154.09) in spite of having traded above that level most of the day on Friday. The failure to break 154.30 suggests that the strength seen the last 2 weeks has been mostly short-covering and not new buying interest and that a retest of the recent low at 129.04 is highly likely to be seen in the near future. The company reports earnings on Thursday afternoon. The stock is likely to be in a trading range between $150 and perhaps as high as $158.60 (200-week MA) this coming week until the earnings report comes out. Nonetheless, if there are any surprises, they are likely to be to the downside. An intraweek break below 149.70 shows open air below until the $145 level is reached. It is more likely than anticipatory trading of the earnings reports leans toward selling than buying. A close above 158.60 next Friday would be a bullish statement. Probabilities favor the bears. AU generated an uneventful inside week (higher lows and lower highs than the previous week) but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 13.66 than above last week's high at 14.92. On an intraweek basis, pivotal support is found at 12.66 but short term pivotal at 13.47. On a daily closing basis, important support is found between 13.66 and 14.00. With Gold having reached a major support level at $1680 and bouncing from it indicatively, it is likely that the stock will begin a recovery phase that will have the 200-day and 200-week MA's, currently at 19.50 and 19.65 (respectively) as the target to be reached within the next 6-9 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls. CAT generated a bounce and a green weekly close last week but remains one of the weaker stocks as the percentage rally increase from the previous week's close (3%) was far lower than the DOW (5.6%). This underlying weakness suggests that the traders are still looking for further weakness to be seen. In addition, the green weekly close failed to even break a very minor previous high weekly close at 179.10 (closed on Friday at 178.62). The 200-week MA is currently at 165.83 and it remains the downside objective. Nonetheless, the stock did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 182.80 than below last week's low at 172.71. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, meaning that the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside and below Friday's low at 177.34. There is some intraweek support between 176.02 and 176.48, which if not broken will likely generate a rally. If broken though, there is no support below until 169.29 is reached. As such, the pivotal point for this week is the $176 level. The company reports earning on August 2 (the following week). Probabilities slightly favor the bears but for this week it is no more than a 51-49% advantage. ENG generated a disappointing negative reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.16 will be seen this week. Until Friday afternoon, the stock had been showing a strong potential for a breakout from 3-month sideways trend but in the end, no breakout occurred. Daily close support is found at 1.10-1.14 level that does need to hold up so that the bulls can one again attempt a breakout. A daily close above 1.30 would generate a breakout (weekly close above 1.22). Overall, the stock remains strongly supported. The company reports earnings on Aug 4. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. LI generated a negative reversal signal, having made a new 4-week high but then turning around to close red, below the previous week's low and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 33.78 will be seen this week. The stock had made a new all-time weekly closing high 5 weeks ago but then generated a failure signal the following week and then last week the intraweek high seen 5 weeks ago was tested and not broken, causing a strong profit-taking binge to occur. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to prevent a second failure signal occurring, having closed at the initial weekly close breakout at 34.44 (closed at 34.36). One downside magnet that was in place was the gap between 34.00 and 34.79, which was a 3rd gap that was unlikely to remain open. Now that the gap has been closed and profits taken, probabilities do favor the bulls given that there has been no fundamentally negative news on the company. Nonetheless, this means that the stock will need to generate a green weekly close next Friday so that all the stated above scenario becomes true. As it is, the stock had more than doubled in price in a period of 7 weeks (between May 9th and Jun 20th) and what has been seen now is a 18.6% correction, which is considered normal. The runaway gap between 32.16 and 32.97 should NOT be closed and therefor the 32.97 area is considered support. I would be a buyer near that area. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green weekly close next Friday. NEM made another new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 50.83 will be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 41.2% from the all-time high made April. On an additional negative note, the stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 52.49 on Friday (closed at 51.39) and confirmation of that break next Friday would do additional damage to the chart. On a positive note, Gold seems to have found a bottom and if that is confirmed this week, the stock should see quite a bit of short-covering and bargain-basement buying action this week. Given that further downside below 50.83 is expected to be seen this week, the psychological support found at the $50 level should not be broken, meaning that the stock should be purchased as the $50 level is neared. On a negative note and given all the negative chart action seen, the upside has now become limited with the $60-$65 level being the upside objective, to be reached sometime over the next 1-6 weeks. If any further upside is to occur (above those levels), the $75 level is now a "brick wall". Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a green weekly close next Friday above 52.49. PLNHF generated a spike-type up week last week, having moved from 1.31 to 1.62 (based on the weekly closes). The stock has now moved up 50% in value over the past 4 weeks, strongly suggesting that a bottom to the downtrend has been found. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.70 will be seen this week. A new buy signal was given on the daily chart with the daily close above 1.60. The 100-week MA is currently at 1.80 and the 200-week MA is currently at 2.63. The former could be seen this week and the latter, could be seen within the next 4-6 weeks. On a daily closing basis, support is now found at 1.45. It does need to be remembered that fundamentally this stock is rated among the best (for the future) in the Cannabis industry and that industry is expected to begin to stage a comeback this year. Probabilities favor the bulls. PRTS made a new 11-week intraweek high and a new 23-week weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.92 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 9.00 and then open air until the 10.00 level is reached. The new multi-week weekly closing high is a positive but then again, it was only by $.06 cents and therefore not all that convincing, especially since the same thing happened 5 weeks ago when the previous weekly closing high at 7.89 was broken with the 8.30 high but then followed by a failure signal thereafter. The stock reports earnings on Aug 2 and the last earnings report was much better than expected and if the same thing happens again (more likely than not), it will give the bulls ammunition for much more. Short-term pivotal support now found at 7.55. Probabilities favor the bulls. SHOP made a new 5-week weekly closing high and a new 9-week intraweek high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.68 will be seen this week. The stock finds itself at a copious intraweek resistance area between 39.50 and 41.37 that now shows 6 times that area has been reached over the past 11 weeks, meaning that it is likely to be broken at some point soon. On an intraweek basis, support is now found at 35.00, which should be seen but not likely broken this week. Consideration to adding positions there can be given. Above 41.37, there is minor resistance at 47.06 and again at 48.88 and then nothing until minor to decent intraweek resistance is reached at 59.30, which is/was the original objective given on the mention. Probabilities favor the bulls. VIPS generated an uneventful inside week but did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.52 will be seen this week. The stock remained trading above the 200-week MA, currently at 9.20, and that would be the possible downside target for this week, which is a level I would add positions at. The stock has stayed above that line since June 8th (34 trading days), meaning it is established and pivotal (on a daily closing basis). The recent intraweek low at 8.98 is pivotal support but if tested successfully, new buying will come in. Probabilities favor the bulls. VNET generated an uneventful inside week but did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.85 will be seen this week. The stock has remained in a defensive posture for the past 4 weeks but the bears have not been able to break any pivotal support levels, suggesting they are waiting for some news or a catalytic event. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 4.61. Short term pivotal resistance is now found at 5.47. Given the nearness of both pivotal levels, it is likely that something will be decided this week or at the latest the following week. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls. ZLAB generated a new 12-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.69 will be seen this week. Because of the additional rally seen this week, the 35.09 level has now become important and pivotal support. The stock did generate a new buy signal on the daily closing chart, having closed above the previous high daily close at 41.41 for the past 4 days, suggesting that on a daily closing basis, 41.41 is now indicative support. Next and stronger daily close resistance is found at 49.68, which is likely to be reached but a small correction back down to the 41.41 daily close support then occur. Objective of this trend is the 200-day MA, currently at 54.52. Probabilities of reaching that line within the next 4-6 weeks are high. Stock reports earnings on Aug 9th. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .3122. 2) PRTS - Averaged long at 7.29 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.65. Stock closed on Friday at 8.36. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0101. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0099. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.87. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.184 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.15. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 72.133 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 51.39. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.18. 9) VNET - Averaged long at 5.32 (2 mentions). No stop loss now at 4.98. Stock closed on Friday at 4.85. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 150.38. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 154.09 11) IDCC - Liquidated at 61.83. Shorted at 65.89. Profit on the trade of $406 per 100 shares. 12) CAT - Shorted at 229.67. Stop loss now at 193.35. Stock closed on Friday at 178.62. 13) LI - Purchased at 36.23. Averaged long at 36.38 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.36. 14) SHOP - Averaged long at 30.17 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 28.01. Stock closed on Friday at 37.35. 15) AAPL - Shorted at 151.22. Covered shorts at 150.12. Profit on the trade of $110 per 100 shares. 16) VIPS - Purchased at 9.74. Stop loss at 8.65. Stock closed on Friday at 9.54. 17) QQQ - Shorted at 295.38. Covered shorts at 290.03. Profit on the trade of $535 per 100 shares. 18) QQQ - Shorted at 293.02. Covered shorts at 294.27. Loss on the trade of $125 per 100 shares. 19) QQQ - Shorted at 296.17. Covered shorts at 296.89. Loss on the trade of $72 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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